Week 3 Preview

Below are the previews. I have changed it this year, I go through each game and look at the scores. Than I come back and write about the games. I use to write and predict scores at the same time. This way if I get tired of writing about a game I have already spent a good amount of time on the score. I would rather have a crappy summary than a crappy score prediction. Below are the previews:

Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	2009 Off	2009 Def	Prediction
These could be two of the worst teams in football. The Lions hope this is a chance to break their 19 game losing streak. The problem is that the Redskins might be bad, but I don't think they are Lions bad. The problem is that the Redskins are favored by 6 points on the road on a different turf then they are use to playing against. I am going to pass on this game.
Washington (1-1)	-6	38.5	22.25	13	15	21
Detroit (0-2)	6	38.5	16.25	20	36	14
One thing I remember from last year is that a team that couldn't score would continue not to score. Sure you expect the Patriots to score a lot of points but they have no running game and a QB who is struggling much like Manning did coming back from his injury. I don't expect them to breakout against a strong Falcons defense. I expect the Falcons to score 21 points the same as the Patriots, I am taking the Falcons and the 4.
Atlanta (2-0)	4	46.5	21.25	23.5	13.5	21
New England (1-1)	-4	46.5	25.25	17	20	21
Unfortunately, the Vikings look like the real deal. They are averaging 30 points a game and I expect them to keep scoring until someone can stop AP. The 49ers have been a good story but this is a tough place to play and their QB is still Shaun Hill. I expect them to score the 17 points a game the Vikings are giving up. The tells me to take the Vikings.
San Francisco (2-0)	6.5	40	16.75	21.5	13	17
Minnesota (2-0)	-6.5	40	23.25	30.5	16.5	28
Once again, when a team isn't scoring points it usually means they are not going to score points. The Rams have scored a total of 7 points in two games. I don't know if they could score 17 points against anyone in the NFL at this point. They might be lucky to score 10 points. The Packers should score at least 21 points. I am taking the Packers.
Green Bay (1-1)	-6.5	41	23.75	22.5	23	21
St Louis (0-2)	6.5	41	17.25	3.5	18.5	10
The Ravens are averaging 34 points a game and the Browns are giving up close to that many points. I am a little surprised that Vegas has them only at 26 points. I expect them to score almost 35 points and the Browns would need to score over 22 points for the Ravens not to cover. I don't see that happening at all, another crappy offense.
Cleveland (0-2)	13	38.5	12.75	13	30.5	17
Baltimore (2-0)	-13	38.5	25.75	34.5	25	34
The Giants are averaging 28 points a game and Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 34 points a game. I see the Giants scoring at least the 34 points in this game. The Tampa Bay defense you know from the past is gone. Tampa Bay would have to score 27 points for the Giants not to cover. I don't see that happening with their offense combined with the Giants defense.
NY Giants (2-0)	-6.5	44	25.25	28	24	30
Tampa Bay (0-2)	6.5	44	18.75	20.5	33.5	20
I was all about to write about doubting the Jets and taking the Titans. Than I remembered that the stats are all pointing to the Jets winning and winning big. I am not going to take the Jets but even better I am not taking the Titans. I am going to pass on this game.
Tennessee (0-2)	1	36.5	17.75	20.5	23.5	20
NY Jets (2-0)	-1	36.5	18.75	20	8	21
The Eagles are scoring 30 points a game while the Chiefs are allowing 25 points a game. I expect the Eagles to score 30 points. The Chiefs have scored 17 points a game and that’s what I expect them to score against the Eagles. That’s a lot bigger difference than Vegas has.
Kansas City (0-2)	9	42	16.5	17	25.5	14
Philadelphia (1-1)	-9	42	25.5	30	29	28
I am still not sold on the Texans and I expect them to score the 21 points a game they are averaging. The bigger issue are the Jaguars. They are only averaing 14 points a game but the Texans are allowing 28 points a game. I think they split the difference and the Jaguars get 21 points. This puts it at basically a tie which means I am taking the Jaguars ina very close game.
Jacksonville (0-2)	3.5	47	21.75	14.5	22.5	21
Houston (1-1)	-3.5	47	25.25	20.5	27.5	22
The Bears are a dumb long snap away from being 2-0. Their offensive numbers aren't great but it was against the Packers and the Steelers. I think they score a little more than the 16 points a game they are averaging, with 21. I think the Seahawks will score the 17 points a game the Bears are giving up.
Chicago (1-1)	-1	37	19	16	17.5	21
Seattle (1-1)	1	37	18	19	11.5	17
I am going to keep riding the Bills and the over. I am going on the theory that they will run more plays because of the no huddle. I also like that Vegas has a lower projected offensive number for both teams. So over it is.
New Orleans (2-0)	-6	52	29	46.5	24.5	35
Buffalo (1-1)	6	52	23	28.5	22.5	28
At first I would jump all over the Chargers and this game. The problem is they are without their center and this has always been a problem for teams. On the other hand, its hard to take an east coast team traveling to the west coast after a Monday night game. Pass.
Miami (0-2)	6	44	19	15	23	21
San Diego (1-1)	-6	44	25	25	25.5	25
The Broncos continue to play great defense. At some point you might expect them to give up more than 6.5 points a game. The good news is that point will probably not be reached by the Raiders who have struggled on offense all season. I expect the Raiders to be lucky to score 11 points. That means the Broncos only have to score 13 points to cover. I am taking the Broncos.
Denver (2-0)	-1	36.5	18.75	19.5	6.5	19
Oakland (1-1)	1	36.5	17.75	16.5	17	11
I concur that the Steelers will score 21 points, it is above their season average but close to what the Bengals are allowing. On the other hand, I think the Bengals will score less than their 19 points a game they are averaging and even less than the 16.5 Vegas has them scoring. I am taking the Steelers in a very important game for them.
Pittsburgh (1-1)	-4	37	20.5	13.5	13.5	21
Cincinnati (1-1)	4	37	16.5	19	18	14
I don't think there is a team in the NFC that the Colts should be underdogs against, especially the Cardinals who lost to the 49ers.
Indianapolis (2-0)	2.5	48	22.75	20.5	17.5	24
Arizona (1-1)	-2.5	48	25.25	23.5	18.5	21
Until Jake Delhomme has a good game I am betting against him and the Panthers everytime I have the chance.
Carolina (0-2)	9	47.5	19.25	15	33	21
Dallas (1-1)	-9	47.5	28.25	32.5	27	33

Week 2 Review

Right now it feels like I am just grinding away, another week, another small victory. Even scarier it has come down to the last two games and I had to win them to pull away. I tried four over/under games and went .500 which is worse than my total record. So I will have to keep an eye on those types of bets. The first week I felt that I had too many underdogs and last week too many favorites. Despite a few problems I am still up on the year, that is the best news.

(218) Atlanta Falcons -6½ (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(224) San Francisco 49ers -1 Sun@2:05p	WIN
(225) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (226) Buffalo Bills Over 42 Sun@2:05p	WIN
(229) Baltimore Ravens vs. (230) San Diego Chargers Over 40 Sun@2:15p	WIN
(233) New York Giants +3 (-125) Sun@6:20p	WIN
(235) Indianapolis Colts -3½ (EVEN) Mon@6:35p	WIN
(213) Minnesota Vikings -10 (-115) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(205) Oakland Raiders vs. (206) Kansas City Chiefs Over 38½ Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(208) Tennessee Titans -7 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(211) Cincinnati Bengals vs. (212) Green Bay Packers Under 42 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(222) Jacksonville Jaguars -3 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(231) Pittsburgh Steelers -3 Sun@2:15p	LOSS

Weekly Record: 7-5 (58.3%)
Overall Record: 14-10 (58.3%)
Spread: 12-8 (60%)
Over/Under: 2-2 (50%)
Weekly Return: 11.24%
Cumulative Return: 24.24%

Week 2 Preview

As I mentioned in my Week 1 Review, I feel there was a huge advantage of having the NFL ticket and getting to watch a lot more games over the last week. With only one game under each teams belt it does provide a small sample size. Remember, last year's best stats to follow was the home and away offense and defensive numbers for the respective teams. The hardest issue for this week was trying to determine between a team that played a low scoring game and one who played a shootout. You also have to be careful to not overreact to just one game. Below are the previews. The number to far right is the score I have predicted.

Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	2009 Off	2009 Def	Prediction
The Giants defense continues to look great, allowing only 17 points a game last week. The Cowboys allowed 21 points a game and I expect the Giants to score close to that. I think Vegas is wrong on the Cowboys and I like the Giants on this game.
NY Giants (1-0)	3	44.5	20.75	23	17	21
Dallas (1-0)	-3	44.5	23.75	34	21	18
The Bears offense looked pretty bad last week and hopefully will only improve. Both teams are missing their best player on defense. I just don't see the Bears offense being able to solve the Steelers and I don't think they will score the 17.25.
Pittsburgh (1-0)	-3	37.5	20.25	13	10	21
Chicago (0-1)	3	37.5	17.25	15	21	14
This is a tough game, the Broncos were one fluke play away from only scoring 6 points. The Browns allowed 34 points. So you have one team that played a defensive struggle and one team that played the exact opposite. I don't know what will happen in this game and am passing.
Cleveland (0-1)	3	39.5	18.25	20	34	17
Denver (1-0)	-3	39.5	21.25	12	7	21
The Ravens allowed 24 points to the Chiefs, they now play at San Diego. I don't care who the RB is I expect the Chargers to score at least 24. I also expect the Ravens to score as many points as the Raiders. It might be a close game but I expect a higher scoring game than Vegas so I am taking the over.
Baltimore (1-0)	3	40	18.5	38	24	21
San Diego (1-0)	-3	40	21.5	24	20	24
These teams scored a combined 45 points last week but allowed 59 points. Yet Vegas has a over/under of 42.5. Tampa Bay has changed its defense and Buffalo is going to run the no-huddle which means more plays than usual. So I am taking the over.
Tampa Bay (0-1)	5	42.5	18.75	21	34	25
Buffalo (0-1)	-5	42.5	23.75	24	25	27
The Seahawks tried their best to lose to the Rams. A few penalties and a Rams team that looked horrible allowed the Seahawks to eventaully win buy a big margin. The 49ers looked like a real NFL team and have been playing well since Singletary has taken over. The Seahawks won't be able to overcome all the mistakes they made against the Rams. I am taking the 49ers.
Seattle (1-0)	1	39.5	19.25	28	0	17
San Francisco (1-0)	-1	39.5	20.25	20	16	20
These teams scored a combined 28 points and allowed a combined 27 points. Naturally Vegas has the over/under at 42. That is a lot of points for both these teams. I am taking the under.
Cincinnati (0-1)	9.5	42	16.25	7	12	10
Green Bay (1-0)	-9.5	42	25.75	21	15	16
The Cardinals looked horrible, they are going on the road to the East coast to play an early game. That’s a trend I will continue to bet until the Cardinals actually play a decent game. I like the Jaguars a lot and think they will win big.
Arizona (0-1)	3	42.5	19.75	16	20	14
Jacksonville (0-1)	-3	42.5	22.75	12	14	20
These were two of the worst teams I watched over the weekend. I think the Redskins might win, but really over 10 points for a team that didn't make the playoffs and lost last week. I am going to avoid this game.
St Louis (0-1)	10	37	13.5	0	28	9
Washington (0-1)	-10	37	23.5	17	23	21
I still have zero faith in the Texans and last week I was completely right. Now I am suppsoe to believe they will score 17 points against the Titans. I am going to continue betting against the Texans until Vegas and company realize they stink.,
Houston (0-1)	6.5	40.5	17	7	24	10
Tennessee (0-1)	-6.5	40.5	23.5	10	13	24
The Falcons defense allowed 7 points last week. The Panthers score 10 points and there is talk of benching Delhomme. Yet, Vegas is expecting 17 points. Plus, the Falcons are home. I might be missing something but I am taking the Falcons and not looking back.
Carolina (0-1)	6.5	42	17.75	10	38	10
Atlanta (1-0)	-6.5	42	24.25	19	7	24
The Chiefs lost a heartbreaker don't let the score fool you. The Raiders also lost a heart breaker. Could these two teams finally be decent? Vegas doesn't think so, predicting a 20.5 to 17.5 point game. I see a higher scoring game, mostly on turnovers and a smaller field. These teams allowed 62 points combined last week and score 44 points.
Oakland (0-1)	3	38	17.5	20	24	27
Kansas City (0-1)	-3	38	20.5	24	38	24
As good as the Jets looked last week, that’s as bad as the Patriots looked, even though they did win. I just can't get a good feel for the Jets and don't want to make a bet on them either way. I think this will be a very close game. I am passing though
New England (1-0)	-3.5	45.5	24.5	25	24	24
NY Jets (1-0)	3.5	45.5	21	24	7	24
The Vikings scored 34 points last week. The Lions gave up 45 points. Vegas expects the Vikings only to score 28 points. I think they will score at least 35 points. The Lions might score 21 points but I don't expect them to cover. I am taking the Vikings.
Minnesota (1-0)	-10	46.5	28.25	34	20	35
Detroit (0-1)	10	46.5	18.25	27	45	21
Sure the Eagles defense is not the Lions defense, On the other hand, McNabb playing or not has a broken rib. This is one of those games that you have to wait and see if McNabb is playing. I doubt this game will even be on the board.
New Orleans (1-0)	1	46	22.5	45	27	21
Philadelphia (1-0)	-1	46	23.5	38	10	10
The Colts defense looked good last week against the Jaguars. The only allowed 12 points and that’s not a good sign for the Dolphins who only scored 7 points last week. I expect the Dolphins to be lucky to score 14 points a lot lower than the 19.5 Vegas has projected for them.
Indianapolis (1-0)	-3	42	22.5	14	12	21
Miami (0-1)	3	42	19.5	7	19	14

Week 1 Review

I forgot how great it was to have the NFL package. At first it was information overload but throughout the day and week I was able to watch a number of games that in the past I would have only seen a few minutes of highlights. I can't tell you how many reviews of games I read that I completely disagreed with. For example take the Ravens, sure they covered and won by 14 points. Yet they score the final two touchdowns in the last two minutes, it was a lot closer game then the score indicated. The good news is the first week was a success. It would have been even better if not for the Chiefs meltdown at the end of the game. I don't even want to discuss the Bears blowing it.

(451) Tennessee Titans +6½ (-115) Thu@6:30p	WIN
(457) Philadelphia Eagles -2½ Sun@11:00a	WIN
(461) Minnesota Vikings -4½ (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(463) New York Jets +5 Sun@11:00a	WIN
(465) Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(471) San Francisco 49ers +6 (-105) Sun@2:15p	WIN
(479) Buffalo Bills +11 (-115) Mon@5:00p	WIN
(455) Kansas City Chiefs +13½ Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(467) Detroit Lions +13½ Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(470) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-105) Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(475) St. Louis Rams +8½ Sun@2:15p	LOSS
(477) Chicago Bears +3½ (-105) Sun@6:20p	LOSS
Weekly Record: 7-5
Overall Record: 7-5 (58.3%)
Weekly Return: 11.68%

Week 1 Actual Bets

(451) Tennessee Titans +6½ (-115) Thu@6:30p

(455) Kansas City Chiefs +13½ Sun@11:00a

(457) Philadelphia Eagles -2½ Sun@11:00a

(461) Minnesota Vikings -4½ (-105) Sun@11:00a

(463) New York Jets +5 Sun@11:00a

(465) Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-105) Sun@11:00a

(467) Detroit Lions +13½ Sun@11:00a

(470) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-105) Sun@11:00a

(471) San Francisco 49ers +6 (-105) Sun@2:15p

(475) St. Louis Rams +8½ Sun@2:15p

(477) Chicago Bears +3½ (-105) Sun@6:20p

(479) Buffalo Bills +11 (-115) Mon@5:00p

Week 1 Preview

Now you know the NFL season is about to begin, its my first gambling preview of the season. Talk about huge momentum, I finished the playoffs with a 9-2 record. Along with an over .500 record for the regular season of 85-76-5. More importantly, since reverse engineering I was 28-19-1 during the regular season. Add the playoffs to that result and I was 37-21-1 since reverse engineering. So lets see if we can continue this all season:

Date	Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	2008 Off	2008 Def	Projected
Both of these teams had some losses in the off season. Still I don't see the Titans scoring only 14.5 points in this game. They still have a great running game. I think this game will be decided by a few points so I will take the Titans and 6.
10-Sep	Tennessee (0-0)	6	35	14.5	22.6	14.5	23
Thu	Pittsburgh (0-0)	-6	35	20.5	22.5	14.5	23
I'll believe the Texans have a good defense when they actually stop someone. I expect the Jets to score the 24 points a game the Titans gave up last year. I don't believe the Texans hype and I expect the Jets to win and at least cover.
13-Sep	NY Jets (0-0)	4.5	43.5	19.5	25.3	22.2	24
Sun	Houston (0-0)	-4.5	43.5	24	22.9	24.6	22
I expect both of these teams to score their offensive averages of last year. The problem is that is exactly what vegas is predicting. So I am passing on this game.
13-Sep	Miami (0-0)	4	43.5	19.75	20.8	20.2	20
Sun	Atlanta (0-0)	-4	43.5	23.75	24.4	20.9	24
This is always a close game and I expect the Jaguars to be better this year then last year. So at the minimum I expect them to score the 19 points a game they scored and the Colts gave up. I only expect the Colts to score the 23 they scored and the Jaguars scored. That makes me want to take the Jaguars and the 7.
13-Sep	Jacksonville (0-0)	7	44	18.5	18.9	22.9	19
Sun	Indianapolis (0-0)	-7	44	25.5	23.2	18.9	23
Sure the Chiefs have problems, but really 13 points to the Ravens. I just don't see it. I expect the Chiefs to score at least 14 points and a lot more then the 11.5 they are predicted. Plus, if the Ravens do take a 10 point lead I expect them to sit on the ball.
13-Sep	Kansas City (0-0)	13	36	11.5	18.2	27.5	14
Sun	Baltimore (0-0)	-13	36	24.5	23.1	15.1	24
I don't expect the Panthers to score as many points. Sure the Eagles have some injuries but I still remember the Panthers playoff game. I expect them to prove me wrong. In fact, I might even take the Eagles on the money line.
13-Sep	Philadelphia (0-0)	-1	43.5	22.25	25.8	18.2	24
Sun	Carolina (0-0)	1	43.5	21.25	25.1	21.3	17
I have no problem with the Saints scoring 32 points, the amount the Lions gave up last year. I just remember how bad the Saints defense was. The Lions have to be a little bit better with new coaches right? When was the last time a non-playoff team opened the season as a double digit favorite.
13-Sep	Detroit (0-0)	13	48.5	17.75	16.8	32.3	21
Sun	New Orleans (0-0)	-13	48.5	30.75	28.9	24.6	32
The Vikings scored 23 points a game last year, they Brown gave up 22 and the Vikings added Favre. Sure he might not be very good anymore but he is an upgrade over Jackson. The Browns only score 14.5 points a game last year and didn't add anyone.
13-Sep	Minnesota (0-0)	-4	40	22	23.1	21.1	25
Sun	Cleveland (0-0)	4	40	18	14.5	21.9	15
These teams are both huge question marks. I am going to pass on this game.
13-Sep	Denver (0-0)	4	43	19.5	23.1	28	17
Sun	Cincinnati (0-0)	-4	43	23.5	12.8	22.8	20
Tampa Bay scored 22 points a game last year and the Cowboys gave up 22 points a game last year. That tells me that Tampa Bay will score 22 points. That is a lot higher then Vegas has them with only 16.5 points. So I will take the 6 points.
13-Sep	Dallas (0-0)	-6	39	22.5	22.6	22.8	21
Sun	Tampa Bay (0-0)	6	39	16.5	22.6	20.2	22
This game does not excite me, a lot of question marks and even my projections were pretty close to vegas, so I will pass.
13-Sep	Washington (0-0)	6.5	37.5	15.5	16.6	18.5	17
Sun	NY Giants (0-0)	-6.5	37.5	22	25.8	18.6	21
The 49ers scored 21.2 points a game last year and the Cardinals defense was pretty bad. So I don't think it is a large leap of faith to expect them to score over 21 points. The Cardinals have their own issues, they have been horrible over the preseason. It is not that they weren't trying and that is the scary thing. I expect this to be a close game and the 49ers to easily cover.
13-Sep	San Francisco (0-0)	6.5	46	19.75	21.2	23.8	24
Sun	Arizona (0-0)	-6.5	46	26.25	27.5	25.7	22
The Seahawks have major offensive line problems, always a red flag. I also have some faith in the Rams. I don't really think the Rams will win, but I do think they will keep the game a lot closer. I just expect the Seahawks to struggle to score the 25 points Vegas has them at.
13-Sep	St Louis (0-0)	9	41.5	16.25	14.5	29.1	20
Sun	Seattle (0-0)	-9	41.5	25.25	18.4	24.5	17
The Packers gave up 23.8 points a game, the Bears scored 23.4 and they signed Cutler. So if anything, I expect the Bears to score even more points. I expect the Bears defense to be at least the same as last year, allowing 22 points a game. That tells me to take the Bears and the points.
13-Sep	Chicago (0-0)	3.5	46.5	21.5	23.4	21.9	25
Sun	Green Bay (0-0)	-3.5	46.5	25	26.2	23.8	22
I remember the Patriots with Brady as the team that lost twice to the Giants in the last 4 games of the season. They have no running game and just traded away their best defensive player. I don't expect the Patriots to score the 29 points Vegas has them at. I expect the Bills to score there 21 points a game from last year, don't forget they do have TO.
14-Sep	Buffalo (0-0)	10.5	47.5	18.5	21	21.4	21
Mon	New England (0-0)	-10.5	47.5	29	25.6	19.3	25
I actually have a little faith in the Raiders, but I need to see them play a game before I would even think about betting on them.
14-Sep	San Diego (0-0)	-9	43	26	27	22.2	27
Mon	Oakland (0-0)	9	43	17	16.4	24.2	15