Cubs Dynasty

Week 6 Preview

2009-10-16T06:31:00.001-07:00

Well as things continue to go bad for me, I received a few requests to continue cleaning up the picks so hopefully this helps. Since their is not much drama with my crappy results the last two weeks, the most exciting part is staying eligible for the Bodog bonus. In what seems like a perfect bonus structure for me, they offered a $250 bonus if you get over $100 every week on NFL football. Unfortunately, the current losses are going to make this tougher and tougher. This week I will have to bet some winnings (if I have any) on either the afternoon games or later games just to stay eligible.

Teams

Spread

Total

Projected

Predicted

Baltimore (3-2)

3.00

44.50

20.75

24.00

Minnesota (5-0)

-3.00

44.50

23.75

25.00

Houston (2-3)

5.00

46.00

20.50

21.00

Cincinnati (4-1)

-5.00

46.00

25.50

28.00

Detroit (1-4)

13.50

47.50

17.00

21.00

Green Bay (2-2)

-13.50

47.50

30.50

30.00

NY Giants (5-0)

3.50

47.00

21.75

20.00

New Orleans (4-0)

-3.50

47.00

25.25

20.00

St Louis (0-5)

9.50

43.00

16.75

10.00

Jacksonville (2-3)

-9.50

43.00

26.25

24.00

Cleveland (1-4)

14.00

38.00

12.00

10.00

Pittsburgh (3-2)

-14.00

38.00

26.00

24.00

Carolina (1-3)

-3.00

39.00

21.00

17.00

Tampa Bay (0-5)

3.00

39.00

18.00

17.00

Kansas City (0-5)

6.50

37.00

15.25

16.00

Washington (2-3)

-6.50

37.00

21.75

24.00

Philadelphia (3-1)

-14.00

40.50

27.25

30.00

Oakland (1-4)

14.00

40.50

13.25

10.00

Arizona (2-2)

3.00

46.50

21.75

22.00

Seattle (2-3)

-3.00

46.50

24.75

28.00

Buffalo (1-4)

9.50

37.50

14.00

17.00

NY Jets (3-2)

-9.50

37.50

23.50

24.00

Tennessee (0-5)

9.50

43.00

16.75

14.00

New England (3-2)

-9.50

43.00

26.25

30.00

Chicago (3-1)

3.50

45.50

21.00

20.00

Atlanta (3-1)

-3.50

45.50

24.50

21.00

Denver (5-0)

3.50

43.50

20.00

27.00

San Diego (2-2)

-3.50

43.50

23.50

20.00

Week 5 Review

2009-10-16T06:20:00.000-07:00

When you go 2-8 the week before almost any result can be better. Still, I have had the second week below .500 in a row which is not a trend I can afford to keep up. One mistake I am still making is believing teams with "good offenses" will come around. Lets call this the Dallas Cowboys mistake for lack of a better reason. Sure you expect the Cowboys to score against the Chiefs but their offense has struggled all season and their defense has also underperformed. The Patriots also fall under this category. You will go poor quickly if you keep expecting the team to magically reach their hype, follow the trend. The Texans and Jets were both close losses that could have gone either way. The problem is that I can't keep whining about bad beats, sure in theory I should start getting a few breaks but those breaks could all come in Week 16 when I am betting a few pennies on each game.

(401) Minnesota Vikings -11 Sun@11:00a	WIN
(405) Washington Redskins +4½ Sun@11:00a	WIN
(413) Cincinnati Bengals +8½ Sun@11:00a	WIN
(425) Indianapolis Colts -4½ (-105) Sun@6:20p	WIN
(403) Dallas Cowboys -8½ Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(409) Oakland Raiders +16 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(418) San Francisco 49ers -3 (-105) Sun@2:05p	LOSS
(419) New England Patriots -3½ (EVEN) Sun@2:15p	LOSS
(421) Houston Texans +5½ Sun@2:15p	LOSS
(427) New York Jets -2 (-115) Mon@6:35p	LOSS

Weekly Record: 4-6 (40%)

Overall Record: 28-28 (50%)

Spread: 26-24 (52%)

Over/Under: 2-4 (33%)

Weekly Return: -23.21%

Cumulative Return: -48.65%

Week 5 Preview

2009-10-08T19:05:00.000-07:00

I didn't have time for write-ups on each game. I did spend time predicting the score but most of my time was looking at last weeks disaster. I put my picks in bold and am hoping to see a Jaguars line, I have seen -3 in some places and I would jump all over that.

Teams

Spread

Total

Projected

Off 3

Def 3

Predicted

Cincinnati (3-1)

42.5

16.75

25.7

21.3

Baltimore (3-1)

-9

42.5

25.75

28.7

18.7

Tampa Bay (0-4)

14.5

41.5

13.5

24.3

Philadelphia (2-1)

-14.5

41.5

31.3

Dallas (2-2)

-9

20.7

Kansas City (0-4)

13.3

24.7

Oakland (1-3)

11.5

7.3

20.7

NY Giants (4-0)

-15

26.5

15.7

Minnesota (4-0)

-10

25.5

St Louis (0-4)

15.5

26.7

Cleveland (0-4)

40.5

17.25

9.7

Buffalo (1-3)

-6

40.5

23.25

16.7

28.3

Washington (2-2)

3.5

37.5

Carolina (0-3)

-3.5

37.5

20.5

12.3

Pittsburgh (2-2)

-10.5

27.25

22.7

Detroit (1-3)

10.5

16.75

18.7

29.7

Atlanta (2-1)

2.5

19.25

17.7

San Francisco (3-1)

-2.5

21.75

27.3

12.3

New England (3-1)

-3

20.7

15.7

Denver (4-0)

22.3

6.3

Houston (2-2)

5.5

50.5

22.5

22.7

Arizona (1-2)

-5.5

50.5

22.7

Jacksonville (2-2)

28.3

Seattle (1-3)

15.3

27.3

Indianapolis (4-0)

-3.5

45.5

24.5

30.7

16.7

Tennessee (0-4)

3.5

45.5

21.7

31.7

NY Jets (3-1)

-1

18.5

16.7

Miami (1-3)

17.5

24.7

Week 4 Review

2009-10-08T18:15:00.000-07:00

I have never been in a train wreck and when I was in a car crash I was very young, so I don't really remember the pain. Unfortunately, after last week's games I can relate to the pain and the slow motion feeling you have as watch and can't change the outcome. To quote Victor Niederhoffer "My checkers teacher said even a bad system is better than no system at all." That is what I tell myself to feel better. As always I will go over the games I lost, all 8 of them and hopefully figure out a flaw or two in the plan.

(215) Seattle Seahawks +10½ (-115) Sun@11:00a

I had the Seahawks predicted score only one point away. The problem is that I missed on the Colts. The problem is that I let the Jaguars game influence my offensive decision. The Colts had scored 27 and 31 the two weeks beforehand. If I had remembered that the Jaguars always play the Colts closer I would have predicted around 28 points and probably picked the Colts. Hopefully this will be corrrected by reviewing teams schedules before picking.

(211) Detroit Lions +10 (-115) Sun@11:00a

The Lions looked like the better team in the first half and it looked like the Bears would struggle for a win. Than Knox returns the second half kick for a touchdown. Than Stafford really starts falling apart, watching the game it was amazing how many open players he missed. If Stafford hits on just a few of these plays the Lions easily cover. Nothing to learn from this game, the breaks just went the Lions way.

(205) Baltimore Ravens vs. (206) New England Patriots Under 45 Sun@11:00a

This loss was very close, the teams only combined for 48 points. Another bad break, Brady fumbles in the end zone and Edwards recovers for a TD. If that play doesn't happen it doesn't give the Ravens such an easy score. This is another loss I can handle, just need a little better red zone defense from either of the teams.

Versteeg is having a great game tonight against the Red Wings

(214) Washington Redskins -7½ Sun@11:00a

Another QB fumble only this time at the beginning of the game. The recovery game Tampa Bay the ball in the red zone and they were able to score a TD. Still, the big mistake was thinking the Redskins would score closer to the Tampa Bay defensive average of 30 than their average of 13. The Redskins are just horrible and I have to keep that in mind going forward. Certain teams have such a poor offense they just aren't going to score a lot of points: Rams, Raiders, Chiefs and Redskins. So this was just a poor bet.

Nebraska needs to give Helu the ball, just run him until he is tired, instead of never giving him the ball. I don't understand, you think they would learn from the Virginia Tech game.

(219) Buffalo Bills -1½ Sun@2:05p

This was an interesting game, the Dolphins had looked horrible all season. I saw Henne play the week before and he looked very bad and the Bills had shown some life. Instead the Dolphins just rammed it down the throat of the Bills. I don't know if this was a bad bet or just the Bills not showing up. It will be interesting to see how both teams play the next few weeks.

(217) New York Jets +7½ (-115) Sun@2:05p

I still think this was a great bet that just saw not one but two bounces not go my way. The Jets were about to score a TD or at least a FG when Sanchez throw an interception for a touchdown. Than Sanchez decided to fumble in the endzone for a TD. If one of these plays don't happen they cover. Finally, Sanchez throws an interception as they are driving at the end of the game for a backdoor cover.

(223) Dallas Cowboys -3 (-115) Sun@2:15p

This was probably the dumbest bet I made of the day. The Broncos have played great defense all season and I dismissed it because of the opponents. Still, the Cowboys had momentum in the game and fell apart. Remember they were up 10-0 at the start of the first quarter. Still, the Broncos are for real, they might not be a top 5 team but they are not a bottom 10 team.

(225) San Diego Chargers +7 (-135) Sun@6:20p

This game was the perfect metaphor for the week. The Chargers went down 28-0 against an offense that had struggled all season. The high flying Chargers looked horrible most of the game. Than they turned it on and made it close before once against making a few mistakes and not covering. The Chargers have a number of injuries on both sides of the ball that really impacted them. This is something to keep in mind going forward.

Weekly Record: 2-8 (20%)

Overall Record: 24-22 (52.2%)

Spread: 22-18 (55%)

Over/Under: 2-4 (33%)

Weekly Return: -60.88%

Cumulative Return: -36.64%

Week 4 Preview

2009-10-02T05:43:00.000-07:00

I am feeling a little pressure this week, three straight weeks above .500 and another week above .500 could put me close or over a 100% cumulative return. A very interesting week with 5 games with a spread at or above 9. Sadly, some of those spreads might be too low. This could make for a week of a lot of blowouts and not as exciting TV as last week. We are also getting into bye weeks so a few less games to review and choose from. Fortunately, I found more than enough games this week. As we learned last year, the magic number is 10 games. If I bet less than that, it has to be a percentage of my total purse. For example if I only find 8 games, than its only 80% of the total purse I am spending.

Teams

Spread

Total

Projected

2009 Off

2009 Def

Prediction

The Colts continue to win and Manning looks really good. Still, there offense is only scoring 24 points a game but the preditced number is 27.25. The Seahawks are having some problems but there defense has held up only allowing 16 points a game. I expect the Seahawks to score near the 15 the Colts are giving up but I don't expect the Colts to score more than there 24 a game.

Seattle (1-2)

10.5

16.75

Indianapolis (3-0)

-10.5

27.25

Sure the Bears could be undefeated if not for a number of mental mistakes made in the Packers game. On the other hand, they could easily be winless. There defense has some injury problems and have been allowing 18 points a game and the Lions have scored 19.7 a game. Vegas is projecting only 14.5 points a game and I think the Lions will score closer to their average at 18. That would mean an offense that is averaging 19 points a game would need to score over 18 to cover. I just don't see that happening, so I am taking the Lions.

Detroit (1-2)

14.5

19.7

28.7

Chicago (2-1)

-10

24.5

Very rarely does switching QBs work for a team, it seems like the Browns have already quit on their new coach. They are only averaging 10 points a game and the Bengals defense has been strong. I don't expect the Browns to score anywhere close to the 16 points a game Vegas has projected. I also think the Bengals will score a little bit better than their average considering the Browns are giving up almost 32 points a game. I am taking the Bengals

Cincinnati (2-1)

-5.5

21.75

20.3

18.7

Cleveland (0-3)

5.5

16.25

9.7

31.7

The Patriots finally scored some points on offense and their defense continues to be strong. Both of these teams are allowing 17 points a game. I just find it hard to believe this game is going to be a 24-24 type game and get to the total number. I see the under being the correct bet.

Baltimore (3-0)

44.5

21.75

34.3

17.7

New England (2-1)

-1

44.5

22.75

16.7

I remember last year when the Texans blew the Raiders game and Andre Johnson was shut down. The difference is that this game is in Houston. I still have no faith in the Texans and Schaub has already played three games without getting killed, that’s probably going to change. On the other hand, I can't take the Raiders on the road they have looked horrible and I think 1-15 is possible. So I am passing on this game.

Oakland (1-2)

42.5

16.75

Houston (1-2)

-9

42.5

25.75

21.7

28.7

The Giants do look really good this season averaging 27 points a game and playing a team allowing 28. The Chiefs are scoring 16 points a game and the Giants are allowing 16 points a game. That makes a difference of 12 points and the spread is only nine. If there is upside in either number it has to be for the Giants. So I am taking the Giants.

NY Giants (3-0)

-9

25.5

26.7

Kansas City (0-3)

16.5

28.3

I had the "pleasure" of watching most of the Tampa Bay game last week. They looked horrible, so switching QB's didn't shock me. Still, I don't expect them to score even the 13 points a game they are averaging. They will be lucky for double digits. The best solution for the struggling Redskins offense averaging 13 points is playing a defense allowing 30 points. I don't think the Redskins put up 30 put I wouldn't be surprised with mid 20's. That has me taking the Redskins.

Tampa Bay (0-3)

13.7

30.3

Washington (1-2)

-7

13.3

16.3

Its amazing that these two teams were preseason talk of being in the playoffs. Now the loser of this game can already book their January vacation. Both of these teams are allowing 23 points a game and scoring 20 points a game. That looks like a tie to me, but its being played in Jacksonville. I was amazed to see that the Jaguars were getting 3 points. It might not seem a lot but I am taking them and the three.

Tennessee (0-3)

-3

41.5

22.25

19.3

23.7

Jacksonville (1-2)

41.5

19.25

I rewatched the Dolphins game this week and I don't have much faith in Chad Henne, I think there was a reason why Pennington was starting. The Dolphins are only averaging 14 points a game and I think they will be lucky to score 17. There defense is allowing 23 points a game and the Bills are scoring over 21. Both of these numbers are higher than the 19 Vegas has predicted. So I am taking the Bills.

Buffalo (1-2)

-1

21.3

Miami (0-3)

14.3

If we have learned anything from last year, it's that good defense always trumps a good offense. The Jets defense has been amazing only allowing 11 points a game. Vegas is predicting 15 points for the Saints. I don't buy it, I am being liberal and giving them 10 more points. Giving the Saints 21 points, you just need the Jets to score more than 14 points to cover and I see that happening. Taking the Jets.

NY Jets (3-0)

21.3

New Orleans (3-0)

-7

18.7

This is one of those games were I am exactly predicting the what Vegas in projecting. The biggest stretch might be the Rams scoring 14 points when they are only averaging 8 points a game. Yet, the 49ers are allowing almost 18 points a game. I am going to pass on this game, I think this score is very close.

St Louis (0-3)

9.5

37.5

24.3

San Francisco (2-1)

-9.5

37.5

23.5

22.3

17.7

Sure the Broncos have a great defense, but they have played the Bengals, Browns and Raiders. I call that a tainted pool and too small of a sample size. I am willing to bet the Cowboys score their average of 28 points a game and cover the spread.

Dallas (2-1)

-3

42.5

22.75

28.7

20.3

Denver (3-0)

42.5

19.75

20.7

5.3

The Steelers offense has looked very poor all season. They have only score 16 points a game so it seems crazy to me to expect them to score almost 25 points, with a defense that has only allowed 21 a game. With an expectation of 17 points for the Steelers I just need the Chargers to score double digits to cover, and I see that happening very easily with an offnense scoring 24 points a game.

San Diego (2-1)

6.5

18.25

24.3

21.3

Pittsburgh (1-2)

-6.5

24.75

15.7

16.7

I have been doing so well on Monday night games, 3-0, that it is very tough to pass on this game. I just think these are two very close and equal teams and there will be a lot of emotion involved in this game and hopefully a Favre career ending injury. I see the Vikins winning by 3 which is very close to the 3.5 vegas has so I am passing.

Green Bay (2-1)

3.5

20.75

Minnesota (3-0)

-3.5

24.25

29.3

Week 3 Review

2009-10-02T04:46:00.000-07:00

Another positive week, that is three in a row. This time the late games were just icing on the cake and once again I won them both and finished the week at 8-4. The Vikings and Steelers losses were both tough. The Vikings probably roll over the 49ers if they don't block the FG for a touchdown. The Steelers gave up a number of fourth down plays to Carson Palmer on his last drive for the Bengals to win. Another unsuccessful over/under and I wasn't even close. I need to keep an eye on my over/under bets because I am only 2-3 making them. I was a little worried about taking so many favorites but my favorite bets were 6-2.

(403) Jacksonville Jaguars +4 (-115) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(408) Baltimore Ravens -13½ (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(409) New York Giants -7 Sun@11:00a	WIN
(413) Green Bay Packers -7 (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(419) Chicago Bears -2½ Sun@2:05p	WIN
(427) Denver Broncos -2 Sun@2:15p	WIN
(429) Indianapolis Colts +2½ Sun@6:20p	WIN
(432) Dallas Cowboys -9 (-105) Mon@6:35p	WIN
(416) Minnesota Vikings -7 (EVEN) Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(417) Atlanta Falcons +4 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(421) New Orleans Saints vs. (422) Buffalo Bills Over 51½ Sun@2:05p	LOSS
(425) Pittsburgh Steelers -4½ (-105) Sun@2:15p	LOSS

Weekly Record: 8-4 (66.7%)
Overall Record: 22-14 (61.1%)
Spread: 20-11 (64.5%)
Over/Under: 2-3 (40%)
Weekly Return: 30.58%
Cumulative Return: 62.22%

Week 3 Preview

2009-09-24T19:20:00.000-07:00

Below are the previews. I have changed it this year, I go through each game and look at the scores. Than I come back and write about the games. I use to write and predict scores at the same time. This way if I get tired of writing about a game I have already spent a good amount of time on the score. I would rather have a crappy summary than a crappy score prediction. Below are the previews:

Teams

Spread

Total

Projected

2009 Off

2009 Def

Prediction

These could be two of the worst teams in football. The Lions hope this is a chance to break their 19 game losing streak. The problem is that the Redskins might be bad, but I don't think they are Lions bad. The problem is that the Redskins are favored by 6 points on the road on a different turf then they are use to playing against. I am going to pass on this game.

Washington (1-1)

-6

38.5

22.25

Detroit (0-2)

38.5

16.25

One thing I remember from last year is that a team that couldn't score would continue not to score. Sure you expect the Patriots to score a lot of points but they have no running game and a QB who is struggling much like Manning did coming back from his injury. I don't expect them to breakout against a strong Falcons defense. I expect the Falcons to score 21 points the same as the Patriots, I am taking the Falcons and the 4.

Atlanta (2-0)

46.5

21.25

23.5

13.5

New England (1-1)

-4

46.5

25.25

Unfortunately, the Vikings look like the real deal. They are averaging 30 points a game and I expect them to keep scoring until someone can stop AP. The 49ers have been a good story but this is a tough place to play and their QB is still Shaun Hill. I expect them to score the 17 points a game the Vikings are giving up. The tells me to take the Vikings.

San Francisco (2-0)

6.5

16.75

21.5

Minnesota (2-0)

-6.5

23.25

30.5

16.5

Once again, when a team isn't scoring points it usually means they are not going to score points. The Rams have scored a total of 7 points in two games. I don't know if they could score 17 points against anyone in the NFL at this point. They might be lucky to score 10 points. The Packers should score at least 21 points. I am taking the Packers.

Green Bay (1-1)

-6.5

23.75

22.5

St Louis (0-2)

6.5

17.25

3.5

18.5

The Ravens are averaging 34 points a game and the Browns are giving up close to that many points. I am a little surprised that Vegas has them only at 26 points. I expect them to score almost 35 points and the Browns would need to score over 22 points for the Ravens not to cover. I don't see that happening at all, another crappy offense.

Cleveland (0-2)

38.5

12.75

30.5

Baltimore (2-0)

-13

38.5

25.75

34.5

The Giants are averaging 28 points a game and Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 34 points a game. I see the Giants scoring at least the 34 points in this game. The Tampa Bay defense you know from the past is gone. Tampa Bay would have to score 27 points for the Giants not to cover. I don't see that happening with their offense combined with the Giants defense.

NY Giants (2-0)

-6.5

25.25

Tampa Bay (0-2)

6.5

18.75

20.5

33.5

I was all about to write about doubting the Jets and taking the Titans. Than I remembered that the stats are all pointing to the Jets winning and winning big. I am not going to take the Jets but even better I am not taking the Titans. I am going to pass on this game.

Tennessee (0-2)

36.5

17.75

20.5

23.5

NY Jets (2-0)

-1

36.5

18.75

The Eagles are scoring 30 points a game while the Chiefs are allowing 25 points a game. I expect the Eagles to score 30 points. The Chiefs have scored 17 points a game and that’s what I expect them to score against the Eagles. That’s a lot bigger difference than Vegas has.

Kansas City (0-2)

16.5

25.5

Philadelphia (1-1)

-9

25.5

I am still not sold on the Texans and I expect them to score the 21 points a game they are averaging. The bigger issue are the Jaguars. They are only averaing 14 points a game but the Texans are allowing 28 points a game. I think they split the difference and the Jaguars get 21 points. This puts it at basically a tie which means I am taking the Jaguars ina very close game.

Jacksonville (0-2)

3.5

21.75

14.5

22.5

Houston (1-1)

-3.5

25.25

20.5

27.5

The Bears are a dumb long snap away from being 2-0. Their offensive numbers aren't great but it was against the Packers and the Steelers. I think they score a little more than the 16 points a game they are averaging, with 21. I think the Seahawks will score the 17 points a game the Bears are giving up.

Chicago (1-1)

-1

17.5

Seattle (1-1)

11.5

I am going to keep riding the Bills and the over. I am going on the theory that they will run more plays because of the no huddle. I also like that Vegas has a lower projected offensive number for both teams. So over it is.

New Orleans (2-0)

-6

46.5

24.5

Buffalo (1-1)

28.5

22.5

At first I would jump all over the Chargers and this game. The problem is they are without their center and this has always been a problem for teams. On the other hand, its hard to take an east coast team traveling to the west coast after a Monday night game. Pass.

Miami (0-2)

San Diego (1-1)

-6

25.5

The Broncos continue to play great defense. At some point you might expect them to give up more than 6.5 points a game. The good news is that point will probably not be reached by the Raiders who have struggled on offense all season. I expect the Raiders to be lucky to score 11 points. That means the Broncos only have to score 13 points to cover. I am taking the Broncos.

Denver (2-0)

-1

36.5

18.75

19.5

6.5

Oakland (1-1)

36.5

17.75

16.5

I concur that the Steelers will score 21 points, it is above their season average but close to what the Bengals are allowing. On the other hand, I think the Bengals will score less than their 19 points a game they are averaging and even less than the 16.5 Vegas has them scoring. I am taking the Steelers in a very important game for them.

Pittsburgh (1-1)

-4

20.5

13.5

Cincinnati (1-1)

16.5

I don't think there is a team in the NFC that the Colts should be underdogs against, especially the Cardinals who lost to the 49ers.

Indianapolis (2-0)

2.5

22.75

20.5

17.5

Arizona (1-1)

-2.5

25.25

23.5

18.5

Until Jake Delhomme has a good game I am betting against him and the Panthers everytime I have the chance.

Carolina (0-2)

47.5

19.25

Dallas (1-1)

-9

47.5

28.25

32.5

Week 2 Review

2009-09-24T19:00:00.000-07:00

Right now it feels like I am just grinding away, another week, another small victory. Even scarier it has come down to the last two games and I had to win them to pull away. I tried four over/under games and went .500 which is worse than my total record. So I will have to keep an eye on those types of bets. The first week I felt that I had too many underdogs and last week too many favorites. Despite a few problems I am still up on the year, that is the best news.

(218) Atlanta Falcons -6½ (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(224) San Francisco 49ers -1 Sun@2:05p	WIN
(225) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (226) Buffalo Bills Over 42 Sun@2:05p	WIN
(229) Baltimore Ravens vs. (230) San Diego Chargers Over 40 Sun@2:15p	WIN
(233) New York Giants +3 (-125) Sun@6:20p	WIN
(235) Indianapolis Colts -3½ (EVEN) Mon@6:35p	WIN
(213) Minnesota Vikings -10 (-115) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(205) Oakland Raiders vs. (206) Kansas City Chiefs Over 38½ Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(208) Tennessee Titans -7 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(211) Cincinnati Bengals vs. (212) Green Bay Packers Under 42 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(222) Jacksonville Jaguars -3 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(231) Pittsburgh Steelers -3 Sun@2:15p	LOSS

Weekly Record: 7-5 (58.3%)
Overall Record: 14-10 (58.3%)
Spread: 12-8 (60%)
Over/Under: 2-2 (50%)
Weekly Return: 11.24%
Cumulative Return: 24.24%

Week 2 Preview

2009-09-18T05:13:00.000-07:00

As I mentioned in my Week 1 Review, I feel there was a huge advantage of having the NFL ticket and getting to watch a lot more games over the last week. With only one game under each teams belt it does provide a small sample size. Remember, last year's best stats to follow was the home and away offense and defensive numbers for the respective teams. The hardest issue for this week was trying to determine between a team that played a low scoring game and one who played a shootout. You also have to be careful to not overreact to just one game. Below are the previews. The number to far right is the score I have predicted.

Teams

Spread

Total

Projected

2009 Off

2009 Def

Prediction

The Giants defense continues to look great, allowing only 17 points a game last week. The Cowboys allowed 21 points a game and I expect the Giants to score close to that. I think Vegas is wrong on the Cowboys and I like the Giants on this game.

NY Giants (1-0)

44.5

20.75

Dallas (1-0)

-3

44.5

23.75

The Bears offense looked pretty bad last week and hopefully will only improve. Both teams are missing their best player on defense. I just don't see the Bears offense being able to solve the Steelers and I don't think they will score the 17.25.

Pittsburgh (1-0)

-3

37.5

20.25

Chicago (0-1)

37.5

17.25

This is a tough game, the Broncos were one fluke play away from only scoring 6 points. The Browns allowed 34 points. So you have one team that played a defensive struggle and one team that played the exact opposite. I don't know what will happen in this game and am passing.

Cleveland (0-1)

39.5

18.25

Denver (1-0)

-3

39.5

21.25

The Ravens allowed 24 points to the Chiefs, they now play at San Diego. I don't care who the RB is I expect the Chargers to score at least 24. I also expect the Ravens to score as many points as the Raiders. It might be a close game but I expect a higher scoring game than Vegas so I am taking the over.

Baltimore (1-0)

18.5

San Diego (1-0)

-3

21.5

These teams scored a combined 45 points last week but allowed 59 points. Yet Vegas has a over/under of 42.5. Tampa Bay has changed its defense and Buffalo is going to run the no-huddle which means more plays than usual. So I am taking the over.

Tampa Bay (0-1)

42.5

18.75

Buffalo (0-1)

-5

42.5

23.75

The Seahawks tried their best to lose to the Rams. A few penalties and a Rams team that looked horrible allowed the Seahawks to eventaully win buy a big margin. The 49ers looked like a real NFL team and have been playing well since Singletary has taken over. The Seahawks won't be able to overcome all the mistakes they made against the Rams. I am taking the 49ers.

Seattle (1-0)

39.5

19.25

San Francisco (1-0)

-1

39.5

20.25

These teams scored a combined 28 points and allowed a combined 27 points. Naturally Vegas has the over/under at 42. That is a lot of points for both these teams. I am taking the under.

Cincinnati (0-1)

9.5

16.25

Green Bay (1-0)

-9.5

25.75

The Cardinals looked horrible, they are going on the road to the East coast to play an early game. That’s a trend I will continue to bet until the Cardinals actually play a decent game. I like the Jaguars a lot and think they will win big.

Arizona (0-1)

42.5

19.75

Jacksonville (0-1)

-3

42.5

22.75

These were two of the worst teams I watched over the weekend. I think the Redskins might win, but really over 10 points for a team that didn't make the playoffs and lost last week. I am going to avoid this game.

St Louis (0-1)

13.5

Washington (0-1)

-10

23.5

I still have zero faith in the Texans and last week I was completely right. Now I am suppsoe to believe they will score 17 points against the Titans. I am going to continue betting against the Texans until Vegas and company realize they stink.,

Houston (0-1)

6.5

40.5

Tennessee (0-1)

-6.5

40.5

23.5

The Falcons defense allowed 7 points last week. The Panthers score 10 points and there is talk of benching Delhomme. Yet, Vegas is expecting 17 points. Plus, the Falcons are home. I might be missing something but I am taking the Falcons and not looking back.

Carolina (0-1)

6.5

17.75

Atlanta (1-0)

-6.5

24.25

The Chiefs lost a heartbreaker don't let the score fool you. The Raiders also lost a heart breaker. Could these two teams finally be decent? Vegas doesn't think so, predicting a 20.5 to 17.5 point game. I see a higher scoring game, mostly on turnovers and a smaller field. These teams allowed 62 points combined last week and score 44 points.

Oakland (0-1)

17.5

Kansas City (0-1)

-3

20.5

As good as the Jets looked last week, that’s as bad as the Patriots looked, even though they did win. I just can't get a good feel for the Jets and don't want to make a bet on them either way. I think this will be a very close game. I am passing though

New England (1-0)

-3.5

45.5

24.5

NY Jets (1-0)

3.5

45.5

The Vikings scored 34 points last week. The Lions gave up 45 points. Vegas expects the Vikings only to score 28 points. I think they will score at least 35 points. The Lions might score 21 points but I don't expect them to cover. I am taking the Vikings.

Minnesota (1-0)

-10

46.5

28.25

Detroit (0-1)

46.5

18.25

Sure the Eagles defense is not the Lions defense, On the other hand, McNabb playing or not has a broken rib. This is one of those games that you have to wait and see if McNabb is playing. I doubt this game will even be on the board.

New Orleans (1-0)

22.5

Philadelphia (1-0)

-1

23.5

The Colts defense looked good last week against the Jaguars. The only allowed 12 points and that’s not a good sign for the Dolphins who only scored 7 points last week. I expect the Dolphins to be lucky to score 14 points a lot lower than the 19.5 Vegas has projected for them.

Indianapolis (1-0)

-3

22.5

Miami (0-1)

19.5

Week 1 Review

2009-09-18T05:08:00.000-07:00

I forgot how great it was to have the NFL package. At first it was information overload but throughout the day and week I was able to watch a number of games that in the past I would have only seen a few minutes of highlights. I can't tell you how many reviews of games I read that I completely disagreed with. For example take the Ravens, sure they covered and won by 14 points. Yet they score the final two touchdowns in the last two minutes, it was a lot closer game then the score indicated. The good news is the first week was a success. It would have been even better if not for the Chiefs meltdown at the end of the game. I don't even want to discuss the Bears blowing it.

(451) Tennessee Titans +6½ (-115) Thu@6:30p	WIN
(457) Philadelphia Eagles -2½ Sun@11:00a	WIN
(461) Minnesota Vikings -4½ (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(463) New York Jets +5 Sun@11:00a	WIN
(465) Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(471) San Francisco 49ers +6 (-105) Sun@2:15p	WIN
(479) Buffalo Bills +11 (-115) Mon@5:00p	WIN
(455) Kansas City Chiefs +13½ Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(467) Detroit Lions +13½ Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(470) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-105) Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(475) St. Louis Rams +8½ Sun@2:15p	LOSS
(477) Chicago Bears +3½ (-105) Sun@6:20p	LOSS


Weekly Record: 7-5
Overall Record: 7-5 (58.3%)
Weekly Return: 11.68%

Week 1 Actual Bets

2009-09-09T18:36:00.001-07:00

(451) Tennessee Titans +6½ (-115) Thu@6:30p
(455) Kansas City Chiefs +13½ Sun@11:00a
(457) Philadelphia Eagles -2½ Sun@11:00a
(461) Minnesota Vikings -4½ (-105) Sun@11:00a
(463) New York Jets +5 Sun@11:00a
(465) Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-105) Sun@11:00a
(467) Detroit Lions +13½ Sun@11:00a
(470) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-105) Sun@11:00a
(471) San Francisco 49ers +6 (-105) Sun@2:15p
(475) St. Louis Rams +8½ Sun@2:15p
(477) Chicago Bears +3½ (-105) Sun@6:20p
(479) Buffalo Bills +11 (-115) Mon@5:00p

Week 1 Preview

2009-09-09T17:26:00.000-07:00

Now you know the NFL season is about to begin, its my first gambling preview of the season. Talk about huge momentum, I finished the playoffs with a 9-2 record. Along with an over .500 record for the regular season of 85-76-5. More importantly, since reverse engineering I was 28-19-1 during the regular season. Add the playoffs to that result and I was 37-21-1 since reverse engineering. So lets see if we can continue this all season:

Date

Teams

Spread

Total

Projected

2008 Off

2008 Def

Projected

Both of these teams had some losses in the off season. Still I don't see the Titans scoring only 14.5 points in this game. They still have a great running game. I think this game will be decided by a few points so I will take the Titans and 6.

10-Sep

Tennessee (0-0)

14.5

22.6

14.5

Thu

Pittsburgh (0-0)

-6

20.5

22.5

14.5

I'll believe the Texans have a good defense when they actually stop someone. I expect the Jets to score the 24 points a game the Titans gave up last year. I don't believe the Texans hype and I expect the Jets to win and at least cover.

13-Sep

NY Jets (0-0)

4.5

43.5

19.5

25.3

22.2

Sun

Houston (0-0)

-4.5

43.5

22.9

24.6

I expect both of these teams to score their offensive averages of last year. The problem is that is exactly what vegas is predicting. So I am passing on this game.

13-Sep

Miami (0-0)

43.5

19.75

20.8

20.2

Sun

Atlanta (0-0)

-4

43.5

23.75

24.4

20.9

This is always a close game and I expect the Jaguars to be better this year then last year. So at the minimum I expect them to score the 19 points a game they scored and the Colts gave up. I only expect the Colts to score the 23 they scored and the Jaguars scored. That makes me want to take the Jaguars and the 7.

13-Sep

Jacksonville (0-0)

18.5

18.9

22.9

Sun

Indianapolis (0-0)

-7

25.5

23.2

18.9

Sure the Chiefs have problems, but really 13 points to the Ravens. I just don't see it. I expect the Chiefs to score at least 14 points and a lot more then the 11.5 they are predicted. Plus, if the Ravens do take a 10 point lead I expect them to sit on the ball.

13-Sep

Kansas City (0-0)

11.5

18.2

27.5

Sun

Baltimore (0-0)

-13

24.5

23.1

15.1

I don't expect the Panthers to score as many points. Sure the Eagles have some injuries but I still remember the Panthers playoff game. I expect them to prove me wrong. In fact, I might even take the Eagles on the money line.

13-Sep

Philadelphia (0-0)

-1

43.5

22.25

25.8

18.2

Sun

Carolina (0-0)

43.5

21.25

25.1

21.3

I have no problem with the Saints scoring 32 points, the amount the Lions gave up last year. I just remember how bad the Saints defense was. The Lions have to be a little bit better with new coaches right? When was the last time a non-playoff team opened the season as a double digit favorite.

13-Sep

Detroit (0-0)

48.5

17.75

16.8

32.3

Sun

New Orleans (0-0)

-13

48.5

30.75

28.9

24.6

The Vikings scored 23 points a game last year, they Brown gave up 22 and the Vikings added Favre. Sure he might not be very good anymore but he is an upgrade over Jackson. The Browns only score 14.5 points a game last year and didn't add anyone.

13-Sep

Minnesota (0-0)

-4

23.1

21.1

Sun

Cleveland (0-0)

14.5

21.9

These teams are both huge question marks. I am going to pass on this game.

13-Sep

Denver (0-0)

19.5

23.1

Sun

Cincinnati (0-0)

-4

23.5

12.8

22.8

Tampa Bay scored 22 points a game last year and the Cowboys gave up 22 points a game last year. That tells me that Tampa Bay will score 22 points. That is a lot higher then Vegas has them with only 16.5 points. So I will take the 6 points.

13-Sep

Dallas (0-0)

-6

22.5

22.6

22.8

Sun

Tampa Bay (0-0)

16.5

22.6

20.2

This game does not excite me, a lot of question marks and even my projections were pretty close to vegas, so I will pass.

13-Sep

Washington (0-0)

6.5

37.5

15.5

16.6

18.5

Sun

NY Giants (0-0)

-6.5

37.5

25.8

18.6

The 49ers scored 21.2 points a game last year and the Cardinals defense was pretty bad. So I don't think it is a large leap of faith to expect them to score over 21 points. The Cardinals have their own issues, they have been horrible over the preseason. It is not that they weren't trying and that is the scary thing. I expect this to be a close game and the 49ers to easily cover.

13-Sep

San Francisco (0-0)

6.5

19.75

21.2

23.8

Sun

Arizona (0-0)

-6.5

26.25

27.5

25.7

The Seahawks have major offensive line problems, always a red flag. I also have some faith in the Rams. I don't really think the Rams will win, but I do think they will keep the game a lot closer. I just expect the Seahawks to struggle to score the 25 points Vegas has them at.

13-Sep

St Louis (0-0)

41.5

16.25

14.5

29.1

Sun

Seattle (0-0)

-9

41.5

25.25

18.4

24.5

The Packers gave up 23.8 points a game, the Bears scored 23.4 and they signed Cutler. So if anything, I expect the Bears to score even more points. I expect the Bears defense to be at least the same as last year, allowing 22 points a game. That tells me to take the Bears and the points.

13-Sep

Chicago (0-0)

3.5

46.5

21.5

23.4

21.9

Sun

Green Bay (0-0)

-3.5

46.5

26.2

23.8

I remember the Patriots with Brady as the team that lost twice to the Giants in the last 4 games of the season. They have no running game and just traded away their best defensive player. I don't expect the Patriots to score the 29 points Vegas has them at. I expect the Bills to score there 21 points a game from last year, don't forget they do have TO.

14-Sep

Buffalo (0-0)

10.5

47.5

18.5

21.4

Mon

New England (0-0)

-10.5

47.5

25.6

19.3

I actually have a little faith in the Raiders, but I need to see them play a game before I would even think about betting on them.

14-Sep

San Diego (0-0)

-9

22.2

Mon

Oakland (0-0)

16.4

24.2

Super Bowl Preview

2009-01-29T08:41:00.000-08:00

I thought I would give a detailed preview of the way I look at games since I only have to focus on one game. As a reminder I went 8-2 over the playoffs so far.

Predicted Results
This is the easiest thing to explain. I take the over/under (46.5) and the spread (6.5). I divide both these numbers by two and that gives us a number for what Vegas expects the Steelers and the Cardinals to score. This math shows the Steelers at 26.5 and the Cardinals at 20.

Steelers Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
The next step is to compare an offense versus a defense. I decided to pick the Steelers offense first. The Steelers average 22.5 points a game over the 2008 season (including playoffs). The last three games they have scored 29.7 points game. Since its a neutral game we won't look at the home/away split. The Steelers are obviously peaking at the right time but its with an offense that is below average. This tells me that they are scoring with help from their defense, whether its actual turnovers or field position. Don't forget the punt return for a touchdown that helped them. The Cardinals have been allowing 25.7 points a game over the season and 20.7 points over the last three games. Another team that is peaking and playing thier best football. The offenses the Cardinals played were: Falcons, Panthers and Eagles. These are good offenses but no one in the top 10. If you look at the Steelers, they have put up close to 30 points against a number of defenses. Really struggling against the Titans and Ravens the last two months. I see the Steelers scoring 30 points. Steelers 30

Cardinals Offense vs. Steelers Defense
The Cardinals have averaged 27.5 points a game over the season and 31.7 over the last three. The Cardinals have a top 10 passing offense and a horrible running attack. The problem is that passing attack needs good weather and they have played much better in a dome than on grass. The Steelers have a top defense allowing 14.5 points a game and 12.7 points over their last three games. The number of the top offenses the Steelers have played are minimal. They played the Chargers twice, the Colts and the Giants. All of these offenses score over 20 points, expect for the Chargers first game when they were struggling. I find it hard to believe that the Cardinals will score less than 20 points. Cardinals 21

Final Thoughts
As the easy math can tell you, I like the Steelers winning by nine points. I think the easier bet is the over, because I see Warner throwing 40 times this game and that will create both offensive and defensive scores.

Conference Championship Preview

2009-01-15T11:27:00.001-08:00

It has been a great playoffs run. Looking at these games I have a major problem with the over/under for each game. The math, reasoning and picks are below:

The Cardinals have been scoring 32 points over their last three and 30 points at home all season. The Eagles defense has been giving up 10 points a game over their last three. Those three teams were the Cowboys, Giants and Vikings all teams with major offensive problems. Sure the Eagles have a great blizting defense but you live by the sword you die by the sword. I have to give the Cardinals 28 points since its at home and they have been hot as of late. The Eagles have also been on fire offensively scoring 31 points over their last three but they have struggled on the road offensively. If you remove the Redskins and Bengals game the offensive numbers look a lot better on the road. I expect the Eagles to score 27 points, a good mid-point between their offense and the Cardinals defense. I love the over for this game, these teams combined for 68 points in the end of November and I expect big plays on both teams.
Teams Spread O/U Predicted Off Off 3 Def Def 3 Projected
Philadelphia (#5, 11-6-1) -4 49.5 26.75 25.8 31 17.4 10.3 27 Over
Arizona (#11, 11-7) 4 49.5 22.75 27.2 32.3 25.7 19.3 28

The Ravens Titans game was a bloodbath with a large number of players limping off at one point. As I was watching that game I made a mental note to take their opponent for this week's game. The problem is that Vegas seemed to have the same line of reasoning. The Ravens have been scoring 22-23 points a game in all three categories (season, last three and away). This is a lot higher than the Steelers 15 points a game at home. I see the Ravens scoring at least 15 points. Vegas thinks the Steelers will score 20 points. Despite the Ravens only allowing 9 points a game over their last three. The last time these two teams played it was 13-9. I think the Steelers will score 16. After seeing weather predictions and dealing with the Chicago weather I have to take the under.
Teams Spread O/U Predicted Off Off 3 Def Def 3
Baltimore (#1, 13-5) 6 34 14 23.6 22.3 14.6 8.7 15 Under
Pittsburgh (#2, 13-4) -6 34 20 22.5 26.7 14.5 18.3 16

Divisional Playoff Results

2009-01-11T17:35:00.000-08:00

Another strong week in the playoffs, this time going undefeated and getting all four games correct. That is right, I went 4-0 and I am now 7-1 over the playoffs. Of course, I only bet 40% of my pile so the returns are not as high as you might expect. Still, it is great to see such success since reverse engineering.

(301) Baltimore Ravens +3 (-120) Sat@3:30p	Win
(303) Arizona Cardinals +10 Sat@7:15p	Win
(305) Philadelphia Eagles +4 Sun@12:00p	Win
(308) Pittsburgh Steelers -6 Sun@3:45p	Win

Weekly Record: 4-0
Playoff Record: 7-1
Overall Record: 92-77-5 (54.44%)
Record since reverse engineering: 35-20-1 (63.63%)
Weekly Return: 35.59%
Cumulative Return: -41.53%

Divisional Playoffs Actual Bets

2009-01-08T18:54:00.000-08:00

After hearing Kevin Mawae is injured and either won't play or will play injured it moved me to just bet on the Ravens instead of the under. I had the Ravens winning 16-13 but with Mawae hurt I see the Ravens defense playing even better. Below are the actual bets:

(301) Baltimore Ravens +3 (-120) Sat@3:30p

(303) Arizona Cardinals +10 Sat@7:15p

(305) Philadelphia Eagles +4 Sun@12:00p

(308) Pittsburgh Steelers -6 Sun@3:45p

Divisional Playoff Preview

2009-01-07T09:53:00.000-08:00

The playoffs are harder to be in my opinion because some of our regular season favorites have now established themselves as very good teams (Baltimore and Carolina). They no longer are the easy picks they were during the regular season. It's interesting because I don't really feel the momentum is behind one or two teams as far as the fans. It seems like everything is almost wide open. Below are the previews and picks.

If we have learned anything in these 18 weeks it is that defense is the most important part of the football game because it is the most consistant. The last time these two teams played the combined score was 23 points. Over the season these defeneses have allowed a combined 29.5 points. Over the last three games 30 combined points. Their highest numbers are Baltimore on the road 19.2 and the Titans at home 16.6 for a combined 35.8. Only we have learned the most important numbers are the home defense 16.6 and the last three games 13.3 for a total of 30 points. I am taking the under
	Spread	O/U	Predicted	Off Avg	Off 3	Def 3	Def H	Projected
Baltimore (#2, 12-5)	3	34.5	16	24.2	29	13.3	10	16	Under
Tennessee (#3, 13-3)	-3	34.5	19	23.4	14.3	16.7	16.6	13

The Panthers have played outstanding defense at home this season at 14 points a game. The problem is they have played some really poor teams at home. The gave up 22 points to the Lions and 23 points to the Cardinals. The Cardinals are averaging 23 points a game away and their last three and I see them scoring that amount. The Cardinals are allowing 30 points a game over their last three the same number that the Panthers are scoring over their last three and at home over the season. Therefore, I see the Panthers scoring 30 points a game.
	Spread	O/U	Predicted	Off Avg	Off 3	Def 3	Def H
Arizona (#14, 10-7)	10	48.5	19	26.9	23.7	30.7	22.4	23	Cardinals
Carolina (#6, 12-4)	-10	48.5	29	25.9	30.3	25	13.9	30

The Giants have played well at home only allowing 16 points a game versus an Eagles offense that has scored 21 points a game on the road including 20 the last time they played at Giant stadium. The problem is you have to go back to November for the last time the Giants allowed less than 20 points, I expect the Eagles to score 20. Injuries to the Giants offense has caused problems and their offense is only scoring 20 points a game over the last three. The biggest problem is the Eagles defense is only allowing 10 points a game over their last three one of our favorite indicators. In fact the Eagles defense has been great since the 36-31 loss against the Giants on November 9th. Only allowing more than 14 points once in a 48-20 victory over the Cardinals. I think the Giants would be lucky to score 17 points.
	Spread	O/U	Predicted	Off Avg	Off 3	Def 3	Def H
Philadelphia (#7, 10-6-1)	4	40	18	26	24.3	10	14.8	20	Eagles
NY Giants (#4, 12-4)	-4	40	22	26.7	20.3	22.7	15.6	17

The last time the Steelers allowed more than 13 points was November 9th and that includes a contest with the Chargers. Vegas is predicting 16 points for the Chargers so they obviously understand how good the Steelers defense is, 14.4 points at home and 13.9 over the year. I would agree with 16 points or have a hard time finding a fault in that number. The Chargers are allowing 21 points a game over their last three. The Steelers are averaging 19 points a game over the same period. I am having a hard time with this game, I see the Steelers at 21 points. So we are about equal with Vegas but since we have a gamlbing problem and want to place a wager its time to look at the intangibles. They all seem to point in the Steelers direction: an extra week off, the top defense in the league, crappy playing surface, Norv Turner. In the end it comes down to the fact that Norv Turner's regular season record is 77-95-1, I am going Steelers.
	Spread	O/U	Predicted	Off Avg	Off 3	Def 3	Def H
San Diego (#13, 9-8)	6	38	16	27.2	38.7	20.7	19.3	16
Pittsburgh (#1, 12-4)	-6	38	22	21.7	19.3	13.3	14.4	21	Steelers

Tom Luginbill (Scouts Inc./ESPN) and I Agree Garrett Gilbert = God

2009-01-06T07:38:00.000-08:00

That is right, I had the pleasure of watching a Lake Travis game in person this year and saw first hand how good Garrett Gilbert is. I plan on following his career now that he is going to Texas. So expect periodic updates on his status. I really felt like he was better than some college QB's I was watching this year, of course I was also stuck with watching Indiana games so I might be bias. The final disclaimer: I also was a big fan of Kevin Orie when he was on the Cubs and predicted big things for him.

Future holds national titles and Heismans for Class of '09

Wild Card Weekend Results

2009-01-04T17:31:00.000-08:00

The biggest regret I have for the weekend was the Cardinals game. They averaged 30+ points a game at home and I still talked myself into them scoring less points. This is where I probably would have done better to not think about who the teams were and just look at the numbers. Still, it was a good weekend I went 3-1 in my picks. I only used 40% of my total because it was only 4 bets I made.

(101) Atlanta Falcons -2½ Sat@3:30p	Loss
(103) Colts vs. (104) Chargers Under 51 Sat@7:00p	Win
(105) Baltimore Ravens -3½ Sun@12:00p	Win
(107) Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-125) Sun@3:30p	Win

Playoff Record: 3-1
Overall Record: 88-77-5 (53.33%)
Record since reverse engineering: 31-20-1 (62%)
Weekly Return: 16.12%
Cumulative Return: -56.88%

First Round Actual Bets

2009-01-03T08:21:00.000-08:00

(101) Atlanta Falcons -2½ Sat@3:30p

(103) Indianapolis Colts vs. (104) San Diego Chargers Under 51 Sat@7:00p

(105) Baltimore Ravens -3½ Sun@12:00p

(107) Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-125) Sun@3:30p

First Round of Playoffs Preview

2008-12-30T17:39:00.000-08:00

With three weeks of data I was able to run some more regression analysis. It was pretty amazing but what ended up being the most significant information were two items. For the visiting team the most important factor was the point allowed per home game for the home team. It was almost 99% significant. This makes sense because it was the 6th-8th game for the home team and the number was probably a good indication of how well they play defense at home.

For the home team the most important factor was the three week average defense for the visiting team. This also makes a lot of sense. It is tougher for a visiting team and why Vegas always gives the home team three points. The NFL and sports in general is about momentum. So it stands to reason a visiting team is going to play as good or bad as their last three weeks.

Enough of the geek speak and onto the games.

Teams	Spread	O/U	Predicted	Off Avg	Def Avg	Def 3	Def H	Def A	Projected
The Cardinals are allowing 34 points a game over their last three and have allowed 22 points a game at home over the season. This includes home games against the 49ers, the Rams and the Seahawks. Atlanta has been scoring around 20 points a game on the road, over the season and for the last three games. I will give them 28 because of the poor Cardinals defense as of late and at home. The Cardinals are only averaging 18 points a game over the last three. The Falcons are only allowing 18 points a game over the last three. In fact Atlanta is strong at 20 points for all their defensive numbers. I will give the Cardinals 21.
Atlanta (#7, 11-5)	-1	51	26	24.4	20.3	18	20.5	20.1	28	Atlanta
Arizona (#18, 9-7)	1	51	25	26.7	26.6	34.3	22.2	31	21

This is a hard game to call both teams have weaknesses and the Chargers seem to match up well against the Colts. This is the classic offense versus defense game. I believe that a good defense will hold down a good offense and this game will be lower scoring than predicted. If I had a gun to my head I would pick the Colts, because its Norv Turner. The under seams a better play, these teams are allowing 37 points a game combined over the last 3.
Indianapolis (#3, 12-4)	-1	51	26	23.6	18.6	15	15.1	22.1	20	Under
San Diego (#15, 8-8)	1	51	25	27.4	21.7	22	19.6	23.8	21

The Ravens have been very good to me all season. The Dolphins are allowing 20 points a game on all their stats. Baltimore is scoring even more but I could conservatively give Baltimore 20. Next, the Dolphins are only averaging 19 points a game at home and 17 for the season. The Ravens are allowing 15 points a game over the last three and the season. I see Miami being lucky to score 15.
Baltimore (#4, 11-5)	-3	37.5	20.25	24.1	15.2	14.7	10	20.5	20	Baltimore
Miami (#11, 11-5)	3	37.5	17.25	21.6	19.8	19	20.5	19.1	15

Before even looking at the stats for this game remember Tavaris Jackson is the starting QB. The Eagles are clicking on defense allowing 9 points a game over their last three. I just don't have faith in a one dimensional offense doing well in the playoffs and think the Eagles will hold the Vikings to 14 points. The Eagles offense has been scoring a ton of points except for the Redskins game which I still can't explain. The Vikings are allowing 20 points a game over the season and the last three. They have been a little better at home, but Williams if he does play will be injured. Just a reminder, Tavaris Jackson is starting for the Vikings.
Philadelphia (#8, 9-6-1)	-3	41.5	22.25	26	18.1	8.7	14.8	21.4	21	Philadelphia
Minnesota (#10, 10-6)	3	41.5	19.25	23.7	20.8	19	17.9	23.8	14

Regular Season Results

2008-12-30T17:14:00.000-08:00

It's been a difficult year but I feel like I learned a lot and I did finish above .500 on the season. I think the reverse engineering has been the most effective way to look at the games. Still, the Titans and Colts game is a perfect reason why you need to read a preview or two. I had no idea that Sorgi and V.Young were going to play most of the game at QB. Knowing this I would have moved away from the game and never bet the over. It was not the first time I heard about an injury or change after I already made the bet. Below are the results:

(301) Oakland Raiders +13 Sun@12:00p	Win
(307) New York Giants +7 (-115) Sun@12:00p	Win
(313) St. Louis Rams +14 (-105) Sun@12:00p	Win
(322) Pittsburgh Steelers -11 Sun@12:00p	Win
(325) New England Patriots -6 Sun@12:00p	Win
(328) Arizona Cardinals -7 (-105) Sun@3:15p	Win
(303) Detroit Lions vs. (304) Green Bay Packers Under 43 Sun@12:00p	Loss
(309) Chicago Bears +3 (-120) Sun@12:00p	Loss
(315) Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-125) Sun@12:00p	Loss
(317) Jacksonville Jaguars +11 Sun@3:15p	Loss
(319) Tennessee Titans vs. (320) Indianapolis Colts Over 39 Sun@12:00p	Loss
(331) Denver Broncos +8 Sun@7:15p	Loss

Record: 6-6
Overall Record: 85-76-5 (52.8%)
Record since reverse engineering: 28-19-1 (59.6%)
Weekly Return: -3.86%
Cumulative Return: -62.87%

Week 17 Actual Bets

2008-12-27T10:59:00.000-08:00

Below are the actual bets. I ended up passing on the Panthers game because the line moved from -1 to -3. There have been a few games where the line moved dramatically and I didn't notice it. So I have made a better effort to keep an eye on the actual lines before betting. I also had to pass on the 49ers game because it was off the board.

(301) Oakland Raiders +13 Sun@12:00p

(303) Detroit Lions vs. (304) Green Bay Packers Under 43 Sun@12:00p

(307) New York Giants +7 (-115) Sun@12:00p

(309) Chicago Bears +3 (-120) Sun@12:00p

(313) St. Louis Rams +14 (-105) Sun@12:00p

(315) Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-125) Sun@12:00p

(317) Jacksonville Jaguars +11 Sun@3:15p

(319) Tennessee Titans vs. (320) Indianapolis Colts Over 39 Sun@12:00p

(322) Pittsburgh Steelers -11 Sun@12:00p

(325) New England Patriots -6 Sun@12:00p

(328) Arizona Cardinals -7 (-105) Sun@3:15p

(331) Denver Broncos +8 Sun@7:15p

Week 17 Preview

2008-12-27T10:49:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the late posts, the holiday's made it tough. Again I looked at the last three weeks but I felt like I put to much emphasis on it last week. So I also looked at the breakdowns on rushing, passing and overall yards per attempt. Finally, I put a little more weight on teams that were playing for something. For example, I expect the Bears to put everything on the line with a potential playoff spot on the line. I don't expect the Texans to have as much emotion, this is also the same team that lost to the Raiders last week.

Teams	Spread	O/U	Predicted	2008	Off 3	2008	Def 3	Projected
Chicago (#13, 9-6)	3	47	22	23.4	23.3	21.3	17	24	Chicago
Houston (#18, 7-8)	-3	47	25	22.3	17.7	24.7	20	18

Carolina (#6, 11-4)	-1	51	26	25.4	32	19.9	22.3	30	Carolina
New Orleans (#14, 8-7)	1	51	25	28.8	31.7	24	19.7	28

NY Giants (#2, 12-3)	7	42	18	27.2	18.7	18.3	22.7	19	Giants
Minnesota (#9, 9-6)	-7	42	25	23.9	24	20.9	18	23

New England (#11, 10-5)	-6	40	23	26.5	40	20.6	18	28	New England
Buffalo (#24, 7-8)	6	40	17	22.4	20	21.9	23.3	17

St Louis (#31, 2-13)	14	45	15	13.7	15.3	28.9	24.7	15	St Louis
Atlanta (#7, 10-5)	-14	45	29	24	20.7	19.9	18.7	24

Oakland (#28, 4-11)	13	39	13	15.5	20	24.3	33	16	Oakland
Tampa Bay (#12, 9-6)	-13	39	26	22.5	19	19.5	30.7	22

Kansas City (#30, 2-13)	3	39	18	19	23	28.3	28	21	Kansas City
Cincinnati (#25, 3-11-1)	-3	39	21	12.5	12.3	23.9	16	12

Tennessee (#1, 13-2)	-3	39	21	25	23.7	14.1	12	24	Over
Indianapolis (#5, 11-4)	3	39	18	23.6	32.3	19.9	16	26

Detroit (#32, 0-15)	10.5	43	16	16.5	14.7	32.4	31	15	Under
Green Bay (#21, 5-10)	-10.5	43	27	25.9	18	23.9	21.3	24

Cleveland (#26, 4-11)	11	34	11	15.5	6.3	21.3	24	7
Pittsburgh (#3, 11-4)	-11	34	22	21.1	15.7	14.9	17.7	21	Pittsburgh

Miami (#15, 10-5)	3	43	20	21.4	22.7	20	14.3	21
NY Jets (#19, 9-6)	-3	43	23	25.9	16	22.1	21.3	24

Dallas (#10, 9-6)	1	43	21	23.7	19	21.4	20.3
Philadelphia (#8, 8-6-1)	-1	43	22	24.8	17.7	18.9	11.3

Seattle (#29, 4-11)	6.5	46	20	18.2	19	23.9	15.7	19
Arizona (#20, 8-7)	-6.5	46	26	26.2	18.3	27	30.7	28	Arizona

Washington (#16, 8-7)	3	38	17	16.1	11	17.9	15.7	14	Under
San Francisco (#27, 6-9)	-3	38	20	20.8	16.7	23.8	14.7	17

Jacksonville (#23, 5-10)	11	38	13	19.7	18	22.7	23.3	14	Jacksonville
Baltimore (#4, 10-5)	-11	38	24	23.9	22	15.8	15.7	20

Denver (#22, 8-7)	9	51	21	23.3	19	26.4	25.7	21	Denver
San Diego (#17, 7-8)	-9	51	30	25.8	32.3	21.7	17.3	24

Week 16 Results

2008-12-23T07:52:00.003-08:00

Things were looking really good during the early games where it looked like I was going to go 5-0. Than the Chiefs decided to completely melt down at the end of the game. The Eagles absolutely fell apart in their game against the Redskins. They had 6 drops and at least three of them would have been touchdowns. Still, good teams find a way to win and make plays. They ended up coming 6 inches short of tying the game. The Panthers loss was another tough loss. They had a lead most of the game and even when they let the Giants tie the game I felt comfortable giving 3.5. Even when the game went into overtime I felt comfortable. Of course, the Giants scored a TD to cover in overtime. I saw absolutely nothing of the Raiders game but it seems when a team has a very good #1 WR and goes against the best CB in the league it usually is a problem for the offense. The Panthers also struggled against the Raiders. This may just be the Asomugha rule but something to remember for next year. Still, despite a few bad breaks I still went 6-4 on the week and continue my above .500 record for the year.

(103) Baltimore Ravens +6 Sat@7:15p	Win
(106) Tennessee Titans +3 (-115) Sun@12:00p	Win
(111) Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-135) Sun@12:00p	Win
(115) 49ers vs. (116) Rams Under 42½ Sun@12:00p	Win
(127) Buffalo Bills +6 (-115) Sun@3:05p	Win
(129) San Diego Chargers +4 (-115) Sun@12:00p	Win
(108) Kansas City Chiefs +4 (-115) Sun@12:00p	Loss
(113) Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-105) Sun@3:15p	Loss
(121) Carolina Panthers +3½ Sun@7:15p	Loss
(125) Houston Texans -7 (-115) Sun@3:05p	Loss


Record: 6-4
Overall Record: 79-71-5
Weekly Return: 12.23%
Cumulative Return: -61.38%

Week 16 Actual Bets

2008-12-21T09:25:00.000-08:00

Already a good start to the week with a Ravens win. The Ravens have continued to be a great team to bet on this year. Their defense is back to being a top five defense and their offense is probably the best its been in the Ray Lewis era. This team reminds me of the Steelers Super Bowl team with rookie Rothlesburger. Below are the actual bets for Sunday:

(106) Tennessee Titans +3 (-115) Sun@12:00p

(108) Kansas City Chiefs +4 (-115) Sun@12:00p

(111) Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-135) Sun@12:00p

(113) Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-105) Sun@3:15p

(115) San Francisco 49ers vs. (116) St. Louis Rams Under 42½ Sun@12:00p

(121) Carolina Panthers +3½ Sun@7:15p

(125) Houston Texans -7 (-115) Sun@3:05p

(127) Buffalo Bills +6 (-115) Sun@3:05p

(129) San Diego Chargers +4 (-115) Sun@12:00p

Week 16 Preview

2008-12-19T08:32:00.001-08:00

Just a quick note, I would like to thank Brian for submitting his hockey information on the blog. Brian has been sending out great emails during the Blackhawks season and I have been begging him to just post them. As you can imagine its hard to find quality Blackhawk information on the web. I would also like to take this time to beg everyone to vote for the Blackhawks in the All-Star game. Toews is only four thousand votes away from starting and I can't tell you how impressive it would be to have two starters for the Blackhawks.

I had some time this week to run multiple regression on Week 15 and some interesting information came up. Of course this was just on one week of information so they are obvious sample size issues. The only category that was statistically significant was offense over three weeks. It was significant at a 90% level. Surprisingly, defense was almost no factor in the equation. So I made sure you keep an eye on the last three weeks scoring. The problem of course, is that a very good or bad game can skew these numbers.

Teams	Spread	O/U	Projected	Off Avg	Off 3	Def Avg	Predicted
The Ravens have been scoring 23 points a game and 22 over the last three. The Cowboys defense is good but not great. I have faith that the Revens will score over 20 points which should not only be enough to cover but put them in position to win the game
Baltimore (#4, 9-5)	4	39.5	17.75	23.2	22.3	15.2	20	Baltimore
Dallas (#11, 9-5)	-4	39.5	21.75	23.7	22.3	20.6	17

Tampa Bay has a very good defense but they have struggled recently. Vegas has the Chargers scoring 5 points less then their offensive averages. I think they score closer to their averages, Rivers has been playing great. Tampa Bay has been struggling on offense and I see this game probably come down to a game winning field goal from either team. The bonus is that if one team is going to explode and score points its the Chargers.
San Diego (#22, 6-8)	3.5	42.5	19.5	24.7	24	21.6	21	San Diego
Tampa Bay (#9, 9-5)	-3.5	42.5	23	22.4	18.7	17.9	20

The Steelers have a top defense but to think they will hold the Titans to 17 points, 12 points below their three game average, is a little far fetched for me. This game is at home for the Titans, they are coming off a loss and its for home field in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh (#2, 11-3)	-1	34.5	17.75	21.6	22	13.7	21
Tennessee (#1, 12-2)	1	34.5	16.75	24.6	29	14.1	24	Tennessee

The Cardinals have a number of players possibly sitting so I am going to pass on the game.
Arizona (#16, 8-6)	9	45	18	27.6	22.7	25.6	20
New England (#15, 9-5)	-9	45	27	25	27.7	21.6	27

These teams have been averaging 28 points a game combined over the last 3 and 34 points a game during the season.
San Francisco (#26, 5-9)	-5.5	43.5	24.5	21.1	14.3	24.4	17	Under
St Louis (#31, 2-12)	5.5	43.5	19	13.5	14	29.8	17

If the Lions are going to win a game it could be against a horrible defense and Megatron having a monster game, this game just scares me, pass.
New Orleans (#14, 7-7)	-7	50.5	28.75	27.9	24.3	25.2	27
Detroit (#32, 0-14)	7	50.5	21.75	17.1	15.7	31.7	17

The Dolphins are a good football team that limits their mistakes. They just don't score a lot of points. The Chiefs will be able to hold them close to their three game average of 15 points a game. If the Chiefs can score 13 points they will cover, thats a good possibility.
Miami (#18, 9-5)	-3.5	39.5	21.5	20.2	15.3	19.2	16
Kansas City (#30, 2-12)	3.5	39.5	18	18.1	19.3	27.6	17	Kansas City

Ken Dorsy, bet against him.
Cincinnati (#25, 2-11-1)	3	32.5	14.75	12.4	8.7	25.6	13	Cincinnati
Cleveland (#23, 4-10)	-3	32.5	17.75	16.6	8.3	21.8	10

NY Jets (#17, 9-5)	-4	43	23.5	27.5	20.7	22.8	21
Seattle (#28, 3-11)	4	43	19.5	18.6	17.7	25.4	17

The Bills are going back to Edwards at QB and if he is healthy he will have the Bills looking like the team they were at the beginning of the year. The Broncos have a poor defense and the Bills numbers are skewed because Losman is horrible.
Buffalo (#27, 6-8)	7	45	19	21.9	11	21.9	17	Buffalo
Denver (#21, 8-6)	-7	45	26	23.3	22.7	26.1	21

I find it hard to believe the Raiders will explode for 19 points, they have averaged 14 all season and 15 during the last three. The Texans have started playing very well and they might be out of the playoffs but it would mean a lot to this team to go 9-7 and remember the Colts meltdown. The Raiders quit playing in September.
Houston (#13, 7-7)	-7	44	25.5	22.8	22.3	24.5	24	Houston
Oakland (#29, 3-11)	7	44	18.5	14.6	15.3	24.9	14

The Eagles have been scoring 26 points a game all year and 33 the last three games. The Redskins have a good defense but not as good as Vegas is predicting. Plus, the Redskins seem to be falling apart and the Eagles are on the usual late season run.
Philadelphia (#8, 8-5-1)	-5	38.5	21.75	26.4	32.7	19.5	28	Philadelphia
Washington (#20, 7-7)	5	38.5	16.75	16.5	10	19	17

This game is to close to call, can a rookie QB go into a very tough place to play and win the game? I can't wait to watch but I don't have faith in either team right now. The Falcons seem to feast on poor running defenses and the Vikings are starting Tavaris Jackson at QB.
Atlanta (#10, 9-5)	3.5	43	19.75	24	20	20.1	21
Minnesota (#7, 9-5)	-3.5	43	23.25	24.4	29.7	20.7	23

The Giants have been averaging 15 points a game, so I see 20 points as a stretch. The injuries and suspensions have been playing a part but until the Giants have a good offensive game, I expect them to struggle.
Carolina (#5, 11-3)	3	37.5	17.25	25.2	34.3	18.9	17	Carolina
NY Giants (#3, 11-3)	-3	37.5	20.25	26.7	15	17.6	14

Thank You

2008-12-17T14:13:00.000-08:00

First, I just wanted to thank Cubs Dynasty for allowing me to post my periodic Hawks insights here on this blog.

I do thing it's mildly ironic that a blog called Cubs Dynasty has so far been about football betting lines and hockey write-ups.

Only in Bob's world would this happen.

And now, to my first post - just a quick summation of the Hawks standing in the ESPN.com, CBS.sportsline, USA Today, and SI.com NHL Power Ratings:

ESPN.com

(starting from their first Power Rankings of the year):

Blackhawks

1-2-1

You win your first game of the season ... and your coach gets fired. Was this a smart move or a panic move? Time will tell.

Blackhawks

3-2-2

After a tumultuous turn of events, Chicago has responded. It is undefeated in regulation under new coach Joel Quenneville. Mr. Kane also has three goals and three assists in those three games.

Blackhawks

7-3-3

After a rocky start to the season, the Blackhawks are 6-1-2 since Joel Quenneville took over as coach. Chicago has also yet to drop a game at home (6-0-2).

Blackhawks

7-4-5

Word out of Chicago is that Nikolai Khabibulin is happier and wants to play out his contract in the Windy City. Any takers for the Hawks' second-best goalie, Cristobal Huet?

Blackhawks

10-4-5

The Blackhawks have to be Khabby the Bulin Wall is still in Chicago.

Blackhawks

10-6-6

Three straight losses with Cristobal Huet in net, but can you completely blame him against San Jose and Anaheim? Seven of Chicago's past nine games have been decided by a single goal, and the Hawks have won just two of those games.

Blackhawks

12-6-7

Tough shootout loss to the Red Wings, but we can't wait to see more moves from Jonathan Toews in the Winter Classic.

Blackhawks

15-6-7

The truck filled with outdoor goodness has made it to Wrigley and the countdown to Jan. 1 has officially begun!

CBS.Sportsline.com

(starting from their first Power Rankings of the year):

Date

Ranking

10/20/2008	18
Sophomore Patrick Kane was in tears after Savard was fired, but he responded with six points in his first two games under Quenneville.

10/27/2008	16
Playing on the top line with Toews and Kane, Kris Versteeg is becoming a dark horse rookie of the year candidate with two goals and eight points, the best freshman output so far.

11/10/2008	15
Khabibulin and Huet are pushing each other, which is a good thing for Chicago. The Blackhawks are still waiting for Jonathan Toews to get his first goal.

11/09/2008	10
The Blackhawks seem to have fixed whatever ailed them under Denis Savard and quickly. And they're putting on a good show at home so far with a 6-0-2 record.

11/17/2008	11
Not so good in tight situations. Chicago won nearly 60 percent of its one-goal games last season, but has only one victory in eight tries this time.

11/24/2008	5
Nikolai Khabibulin might be on the trading block, but in the meantime he won't let go of his starting job in goal for the surging Blackhawks.

12/01/2008	12
More questions now about Chicago's decision to sign Cristobal Huet. The goalie blew another chance to prove himself, losing all three of his starts on last week's annual circus road trip.

12/08/2008	6
The kids are alright. Patrick Kane has 13 points in his past 10 games, while Jonathan Toews has all eight of his goals in the past 13.

12/15/2008	6
One of the best shows in town. Chicago has sold out all 15 home games this season, and is 10-1-4 at the United Center, scoring four goals per game there.

USAToday.com

(They only release these every two weeks and then rank only the Top 10 teams. But they also rank the contenders for various league-wide awards.)

Chicago Blackhawks

15-6-2-5 (37 pts., 2nd in Central)

(That was the Hawks' first appearance of the year, and hopefully one that will be repeated. Their 51 points (i.e. total ranking points by their 7 experts) was just a hear below the #5 Caps (52) and #4 Flyers (53) and significantly above the rest of the pack.

No MVP or Vezina love (makes sense, as the Hawks are gettin contributions from so multiple guys on both fronts), but Keith made his first appearance in the Norris talk, albeit down the list.

According to their experts, Versteeg is in a back-and-forth battle for the Calder with Derick Brassard (a center on Columbus). If they keep close, the Hawks better season could be the difference, but there's a lot of year left.)

SI.com

(starting from their first Power Rankings of the year):

Chicago Blackhawks (7-4-5)

The Hawks offered an appreciative nod to their past this week by retiring the number three worn by Pierre Pilote and Keith Magnuson, and naming ex-coach Denis Savard a team ambassador. If only the news from the ice was as heartwarming. The defense gave up 12 goals en route to three straight losses -- hardly the ideal launching pad for the six-game road trip that begins Tuesday. The Hawks have flexed their muscles at home, going 6-1-4, but they've won just one of five road games.

Chicago Blackhawks (10-4-5)

Let's officially drop any further discussion about trading Nikolai Khabibulin, shall we? After clearing waivers, he clinched his status as Chicago's top option between the pipes (3-0, 2.90 GAA, .918 save pct. and overall mark of 7-1-4). GM Dale Tallon is being lambasted for blowing $22 million on pinewarmer Cristobal Huet, but might save face if he lands a second line center, say, Michael Nylander, in the next few days.

Chicago Blackhawks (10-6-6)

This is why it was a good idea to hold off on planning the parade rout. Young teams go through rough patches, and the Hawks are in deep, thanks to the inability to generate secondary scoring. And doesn't it look like that C is weighing heavily on Johnny Toews?

Chicago Blackhawks (12-6-7)

The best teams spread the offense around. Few do it better than the Hawks. Thanks to Andrew Ladd's hot streak (seven points last week), they boast eight skaters with at least 15 apiece. Only San Jose (10) has more.

Chicago Blackhawks (15-6-7)

The story circulating about them skipping a chance to head home last month in order to attend the funeral of GM Dale Tallon's father instead tells you more about what kind of team this is than does their four-game winning streak. This group is building something special.

Week 15 Results

2008-12-14T19:57:00.000-08:00

I had an absolutely great week, going 8-2-1. I have done a lot better since working backwards from the over/under and the spread. This allows me to see what Vegas is predicting and to compare it to the past scoring averages. I really think using the home/away and last 3 game splits really helped this week. It was very interesting to see the splits for each team. I am going to look over the games and my results to see where I went wrong and right.

SD -6
The Chargers had averaged 22 points a game away and 23 points the last three games. I thought the Chiefs defense which was allowing over 30 points a game away and the last 3 would allow the Chargers to score even more points. Unfortunately, the Chargers stayed at their number of 22. The Chiefs scored closer to their average the last 3 games and the Chargers overall average. This would have been a prime example of focusing on the 3 game average and the home/away split.

GB/JAX Over
When you bet the over you can't have teams settle for field goals. This game had 5 field goals which is a guaranteed problem for the over. The Packers had been very consistent on offense scoring 27 points a game over the season, over the last three, on the road and away. Even vegas thought they would score 23 points. If the Packers score their 27 they make the over.

Buf +9
Vegas predicted the Bills to only score 16 points way below all of their averages on offense. The Jets defense was not good enough for me to believe they would score so much lower than their averages. Also, earlier in the season the Bills had beaten the Jets.

SF+7
This ended up being a low scoring game but if you look through the Dolphins games almost all have them have been close, they played the Raiders very close. Vegas had the 49ers scoring 18, lower than most of their averages and the Dolphins defensive averages. I have been following the 49ers and they have really been struggling in the red zone and it cost them a win in this game.

Cin+7
Vegas had the Redskins scoring a lot higher than their four averages and I know the Bengals are below average on defense but the Redskins can't score. I am starting to think a bad offense is a bad offense and this game proves it. The Bengals were predicted for 15 points but in the NFL a touchdown on a fluke pay has a lot of chances to happen in 200 plays of a game.

HOU/TEN Under
The Titans were being predicted to score 24 points but the Texans had only given up 15 the last 3 games. The same can be said for the Texans offense, they were facing a defense only allowing 18 points a game and that was their highest of the four averages. So it seemed like a stretch that vegas had them at 21 points.

Min/Arz Over
This was absolutely ridiculous, the Vikings only scoring 22 points a game. This was lower than all of their offensive averages and the Cardinals were giving up a ton of points. The Cardinals have been beating the very bad teams and losing to the very good teams. I found it hard to believe they would hold the Viking to so little points.

Pit +3
This is a tough game to call and one I usually pass on. Two great defenses and what offense will get the big break. Vegas had the Steelers at 16 but that was way below all their averages. If anything this game was a lucky break with the Steelers pulling out in the end. It should be noted the top defenses were dominant over the offenses.

NE -7
I thought the Patriots would score close to the 23 Vegas predicted. I did not think the Raiders would come close to the 16. It looks like Cassell is at a point where he can take advantage of poor defenses as he had another strong game.

(301) New Orleans vs. (302) Chicago Over 46½ Thu@7:15p	Win
(308) Cincinnati Bengals +7 Sun@12:00p	Win
(311) San Francisco 49ers +7 (-130) Sun@12:00p	Win
(315) Buffalo Bills +8 Sun@12:00p	Win
(317) Tennessee vs. (318) Houston Under 45 Sun@12:00p	Win
(319) Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-120) Sun@3:15p	Win
(325) Minnesota vs. (326) Arizona Over 46½ Sun@3:05p	Win
(327) New England Patriots -7 Sun@3:15p	Win
(313) Seattle Seahawks -3 (+105) Sun@12:00p	Push
(303) Green Bay vs. (304) Jacksonville Over 46½ Sun@12:00p	Loss
(323) San Diego Chargers -6 Sun@12:00p	Loss


Record: 8-2-1
Overall Record: 73-67-5
Weekly Return: 54.3%
Cumulative Return: -65.9%

Week 15 Actual Bets

2008-12-14T07:17:00.001-08:00

(303) Green Bay Packers vs. (304) Jacksonville Jaguars Over 46½ Sun@12:00p

(308) Cincinnati Bengals +7 Sun@12:00p

(311) San Francisco 49ers +7 (-130) Sun@12:00p

(313) Seattle Seahawks -3 (+105) Sun@12:00p

(315) Buffalo Bills +8 Sun@12:00p

(317) Tennessee Titans vs. (318) Houston Texans Under 45 Sun@12:00p

(319) Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-120) Sun@3:15p

(323) San Diego Chargers -6 Sun@12:00p

(325) Minnesota Vikings vs. (326) Arizona Cardinals Over 46½ Sun@3:05p

(327) New England Patriots -7 Sun@3:15p