Week 1 Gambling Experiment Results

After the end of last years football season I realized I was making a huge mistake of picking only a few games a week. After a run of successful bets I would usually end up losing on a game where something out of the ordinary would happen and lost a large amount of my bank. I decided instead of betting on only a few games a week I would try to bet on every game. This way I would have a larger sample size throughout the season. Even though I would still lose an occasional game because of something out of the ordinary the loss would only be 6.85% (1/16 plus vig) of my bank. Plus over enough games I would also benefit from the occasional lucky play.

I believe Sunday night's Bears versus Colts game proved my theory. In a close game with the Bears leading 15-13 they got three lucky breaks on one play that changed the score, game and momentum. Marvin Harrison fumbled the ball (1) and it bounced directly to Lance Briggs (2) who was able to run it in for a touchdown (3). In the past I would have loaded up on the Colts based on the Bears struggles in preseason and lost 25-50% of my bank. This time I just took a small hit and I live for another day.

I was in another state with no internet access so my week one picks had to be made on Friday at Starbucks. Even worse is that I couldn't get any money lines. Part of my theory is that by spreading out the risk you can take chances on some games and bet on the money line. I would have bet on Carolina and won big but I might have been suckered into a few more games so I am going to call it a wash. I didn't bet on every single game but below are the results for week 1:

Football - NFL Lines (Game) Moneyline					Loss
(451) Washington Redskins +180 Thu@5:00p
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
(454) Baltimore Ravens +2½ (-115) Sun@11:00a					Win
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
(455) New York Jets -3 (-115) Sun@11:00a					Win
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
(459) Houston Texans +6½ Sun@11:00a					Loss
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread					Loss
(461) Jacksonville Jaguars -3 Sun@11:00a
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread					Loss
(465) Seattle Seahawks +1 Sun@11:00a
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread					Win
(468) New Orleans Saints -3½ (+105) Sun@11:00a
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread					Loss
(472) Cleveland Browns +6 Sun@2:15p
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread					Win
(473) Carolina Panthers +9 Sun@2:15p
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread					Win
(475) Arizona Cardinals -2½ Sun@2:15p
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread					Loss
(478) Indianapolis Colts -10½ (-115) Sun@6:15p
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread					Win
(480) Green Bay Packers -2 Mon@5:00p
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Moneyline					Loss
(482) Oakland Raiders +130 Mon@8:15p

RECORD: 6-7
RETURN: -3.4%

The return is better than you would think because of a 10% bonus for signing up and different vig on some of the games (such as the Saints victory). Obviously, I am not happy with the returns but I am hoping by being home I will be able to increase the results in week 2. I hope to have a preview up on Friday.