Week 4 (Meltdown) Results

As I told someone I talked to over the weekends, this has the possibility of a weekend of wiping me out. The perfect analogy was taking the under in the Bears game and seeing them going into a no-huddle offense and actually executing it. It was just an ugly week and it will be very interesting to see if I can bounce back from it and how long it will take to bet back to even. The results are below followed by some analysis:

(215) Washington Redskins +10½ Sun@2:15p	Win
(211) Buffalo Bills -8½ Sun@2:05p	Win
(199) Houston Texans +7 Sun@11:00a	Win
(217) Eagles vs. (218) Bears Under 40 Sun@6:15p	Loss
(214) Oakland Raiders +8 Sun@2:05p	Loss
(209) Green Bay Packers Pick Sun@11:00a	Loss
(205) Atlanta Falcons +7 (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(203) San Francisco 49ers +170 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(201) Arizona Cardinals +1 Sun@11:00a	Loss

Record: 3-6
Weekly return: -36.33%
Cumulative return: -28.37%

Results on predictions:
Lines I predicted 2 7 0
Lines that were bigger 13 8 2

This tells me going forward to only bet lines that I don't predict. It's to big of a difference and I might have to focus more on the over/under to increase the number of bets. So going forward I plan on predicting score and o/u.

	W	L	P
Favorite	9	5	1	60.00%
Underdog	7	9	1	41.18%
Moneyline	2	6		25.00%
O/U	2	2		50.00%
Pick	1	1		50.00%
	21	23	2

The moneyline is not nearly as successful as I need it to be. At a 25% rate I would need the moneyline to be +300 and my winners have been around the +150 area. This means I need to be around 40% to just break even. I am going to be a little but more cautious on the moneyline plays going forward. I am obviously a lot better in picking favorites but I still want a larger sample.