Week 4 Final Review

I was a little worried when the Steelers scored 14 points in 15 seconds but the Ravens played well enough to cover. It makes the pain of the weekend a little bit better. Below are the final results:

(219) Baltimore Ravens +6 (-105) Mon@6:35p Win

Record: 4-6
Weekly return: -25.76%
Cumulative return: -13.6%

Results on predictions:
Lines I predicted 2 7 0
Lines that were bigger 14 8 2

Still an absolutely horrible week, but if I learned anything its to only bet the games that I don't predict the lines. I am at a 64% success rate for those games.

MNF Preview

I know, I know, I said I usually stay away from Monday Night Football games. The problem is that I love the Ravens and the Steelers have a ton of questions. Including, but not limited too questionable opponents the last few weeks. Both of these defenses have been great. Baltimore limiting teams to 10 points a game and the Steelers to 12.7 a game. Their offenses are pretty close with Baltimore averaging a few more points game. Except the Ravens have been having great success running the ball. Did I mention they basically invented a new defense and its only the third week a team will see the defense? I expected this game to be a pick 'em game. I was shocked to see the Ravens getting 6 and couldn't turn it down.

(219) Baltimore Ravens +6 (-105) Mon@6:35p

Week 4 (Meltdown) Results

As I told someone I talked to over the weekends, this has the possibility of a weekend of wiping me out. The perfect analogy was taking the under in the Bears game and seeing them going into a no-huddle offense and actually executing it. It was just an ugly week and it will be very interesting to see if I can bounce back from it and how long it will take to bet back to even. The results are below followed by some analysis:

(215) Washington Redskins +10½ Sun@2:15p	Win
(211) Buffalo Bills -8½ Sun@2:05p	Win
(199) Houston Texans +7 Sun@11:00a	Win
(217) Eagles vs. (218) Bears Under 40 Sun@6:15p	Loss
(214) Oakland Raiders +8 Sun@2:05p	Loss
(209) Green Bay Packers Pick Sun@11:00a	Loss
(205) Atlanta Falcons +7 (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(203) San Francisco 49ers +170 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(201) Arizona Cardinals +1 Sun@11:00a	Loss

Record: 3-6
Weekly return: -36.33%
Cumulative return: -28.37%

Results on predictions:
Lines I predicted 2 7 0
Lines that were bigger 13 8 2

This tells me going forward to only bet lines that I don't predict. It's to big of a difference and I might have to focus more on the over/under to increase the number of bets. So going forward I plan on predicting score and o/u.

	W	L	P
Favorite	9	5	1	60.00%
Underdog	7	9	1	41.18%
Moneyline	2	6		25.00%
O/U	2	2		50.00%
Pick	1	1		50.00%
	21	23	2

The moneyline is not nearly as successful as I need it to be. At a 25% rate I would need the moneyline to be +300 and my winners have been around the +150 area. This means I need to be around 40% to just break even. I am going to be a little but more cautious on the moneyline plays going forward. I am obviously a lot better in picking favorites but I still want a larger sample.

Week 4: Actual Bets

Thought I would post the actual bets that I made. The only change was going to the money line on the 49ers. I really think they have a shot at beating the Saints and the +170 is to hard to turn down. I have picked a number of underdogs, probably the most I have picked all season. Picks below:

(217) Eagles vs. (218) Bears Under 40 Sun@6:15p

(215) Washington Redskins +10½ Sun@2:15p

(214) Oakland Raiders +8 Sun@2:05p

(211) Buffalo Bills -8½ Sun@2:05p

(209) Green Bay Packers Pick Sun@11:00a

(205) Atlanta Falcons +7 (-115) Sun@11:00a

(203) San Francisco 49ers +170 Sun@11:00a

(201) Arizona Cardinals +1 Sun@11:00a

(199) Houston Texans +7 Sun@11:00a

NFL Week 4 Preview

After a great suggestion I am actually listing my picks for the weekend. Of course, with injuries, suspensions and deaths they could change before Sunday. I also stayed away from a lot of the games that I called the line on correctly after the last study. After this week I am going to look at specific teams and see what my record is for them, maybe they are some teams to ignore. I will probably post my actual picks Sunday morning if anyone is interested and if I remember.

Week 4
Sun, Sep 28
ATL @ CAR
The Panthers let me down last week and their rush defense is pretty bad with 6.2 yards a carry. The bad news is that Atlanta averages 5.7 yards a rush. Atlanta has a horrible defense so I expect the Panthers to continue to score 21 points a game. I would give the Panthers 3 points because its their homefield. Carolina -3
CLE @ CIN
These teams are both 1-2 ATS. So they are having bad seasons and its obvious why, they both give up 22 points a game. They both lost to the Browns by only scoring 10 points. The Bengals look to be a little better on defense and a little better on offense but not much. I think the Bengals should get some points for being at home and being a little bit better. Bengals -4.5
HOU @ JAC
The Texans have allowed a lot more points than the Jac defense but not many more yards. In fact both of these defenses are pretty equal. The same with the offenses. The Texans are giving up 15 more points a game. I expect Jac to be a big favorite, but I still have some faith in the Texans. Jac -8
DEN @ KC
Believe it or not both of these teams are giving up around 28 points a game. The problem for the Chiefs is that their offense is a lot worse than the Broncos. The Broncos score 28 more points a game. Did I mention the Chiefs are on their third starting QB. At a neutral place this game would probably be 14 points and the Chiefs do have a home field advantage. Broncos -11
SF @ NO
Both of these offenses are averaging 26 points a game. The Saints are averaging more yards but the 49ers have better yards per attempt. The Saints defense is even worse than the 49ers and allowing 5 more points a game but 100 yards more a game. I think these teams are equal but I think the Saints will get points for being at homefield. Saints -3
ARI @ NYJ
The Cardinals have averahe 4 more points a game on offense behind 8.5 yards a pass attempt. The Jets have been better at running (4.0) but worse passing (6.3). Both teams beat Miami but the Cardinals beat them by more. The Jets defense has been horrible, allowing 7.0 yards a pass the Cardinals strength. I see the Cardinals scoring the 27 points the Jets are giving up. I see the Jets scoring 21 points against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are spending all week on the east coast and we will see if that helps or hurts but I have to take away 3. Cardinals -3
GB @ TB
I am still very high on the Packers even after last Sunday's loss. Both defenses are pretty poor on these teams. The Packers can't stop the run (5.7) and the Bucs can't stop the pass (7.2). These poor defenses play into the strengths of the offenses. I see both offenses getting their numbers GB 29 and TB 24. GB -5
MIN @ TEN
The Titans are 3-0 ATS so eventually they are going to get too many points. The problem is that the Vikings haven't scored many points and the Titans haven't given up many points. On offense these teams have score 42 combined but only given up 28 combined. Thats an average of 35 and these teams have great run defenses. Expect a lot of 3 and outs. I expect both teams to actually pass and probably score the over. O/U 35
SD @ OAK
The Chargers are just a great offense at 36.7 points a game, the problem is they are allowing 31.3 points a game. The Raiders run defense has been good but they are still allowing 24 points a game, probably because their offense is putting them in bad situations. I see the Chargers probably getting 10 points at a neutral field but you have to give the Raiders home field points. Chargers -7
BUF @ STL
STL is 0-3 ATS and at some point they are going to be 40 point under dogs. They are averaging 10 points a game and giving up almost 39 points a game. Their defense is horrible and they cut a starting CB. Buf is averaging 16 more points a game on offense and 22 less on defense. I really think Buf could be 20 point favorites. Lets give STL a home field advantage and a thats a large line advantage. Bills -15
WAS @ DAL
These two teams have similar defenses giving up around 20 points a game and about the same yards an attempt. The problem is that the Redskins offense is a lot worse than the Cowboys by about 12 points game. I could see the Redskins scoring their 21 a game. I see the Cowboys splitting the difference of their offense and the Redskins defense giving them about 25 points a game. Plus home field. Cowboys -7
PHI @ CHI
The Eagles are a very banged up team. I've been pretty wrong on the Bears for most games and I believe I am 1-2. After this week I am going to look at my record with each team. The Eagles defense has been great against the run the only thing the Bears offense is good at. The Bears defense has been great against the pass the only thing the Eagles are good at. This has defensive struggle written all over it. I find it hard to believe these teams will score over 36 a game, their defensive averages. O/U 35
Mon, Sep 29
BAL @ PIT
My line	BoDog	My Bet
Carolina -3	Carolina -7	Falcons +7
Bengals -4.5	Bengals -3.5
Jaguars -8	Jaguars -8	Texans +8
Broncos -11	Broncos -10
Saints -3	Saints -6	49ers +6
Cardinals -3	Cardinals -3	Cardinals -3
Packers -5	Packers 0	Packers
MIN/TEN 35	MIN/TEN 36
Chargers -7	Chargers -7	Raiders +7
Bills -15	Bills -8.5	Bills -8.5
Cowboys -7	Cowboys -11	Redskins +11
Bears/Eagles 35	Bears/Eagles 40.5	Under 40.5

Results of games based on predicted spread

As I mentioned in my week 3 review I thought it would be interesting to see how I have done in games where I had correctly predicted the spread and how I did in games where the spread was greater than one point. The results are pretty stunning even for just two weeks of results (week 1 I didn't type out predictions).

Week 2 results:
Lines I predicted 1 2 0
Lines that were bigger 4 1 2

Week 3 results:
Lines I predicted 0 2 0
Lines that were bigger 7 4 0

Total:
Lines I predicted 1 4 0
Lines that were bigger 11 5 2

That is a huge difference. I am only 20% successful when I get the line correct and still bet on the game. The other games, where I see differently than the line I am at 69%. Both weeks I predicted 6 lines correctly and still thought I had some knowledge of the games to win, I was obviously very wrong. I will probably wait another week or two to get more results but at this rate I will just skip games that I predicted the line in.

Week 3 Review

I missed watching most of the games because I was flying back from New York, after seeing Yankee stadium for the first time. Looks like I missed some great games and finishes. I am going to pass on the Monday Night Football game. In the past, I have heard that a lot of people go into this game trying to make up for losses during the weekend. In the end, the line gets adjusted accordingly and the last ditch bet ends up not working and creating more losses. Plus, the Chargers have a lot of injuries and betting against Favre has some risks.

I ended the week with another gain, it wasn't very big but better positive than negative. If I could ever find some free time I would like to see how I have done in games where I correctly predicted the spread (+/- one point) and games were there was a big difference. On to the results:

(397) Cincinnati Bengals +13½ Sun@11:00a					Win
(401) Miami Dolphins +13 (-115) Sun@11:00a					Win
(403) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +150 Sun@11:00a					Win
(410) San Francisco 49ers -5 Sun@2:05p					Win
(411) Saints vs. (412) Broncos Over 51½ Sun@2:05p					Win
(413) Steelers vs. (414) Eagles Under 45 Sun@2:15p					Win
(418) Baltimore Ravens -3 (+110) Sun@2:15p					Win
(394) Buffalo Bills -10 Sun@11:00a					Loss
(395) Houston Texans +5½ Sun@11:00a					Loss
(399) Arizona Cardinals +3 (EVEN) Sun@11:00a					Loss
(405) Carolina Panthers +145 Sun@11:00a					Loss
(416) Indianapolis Colts -5 Sun@2:15p					Loss
(420) Green Bay Packers +135 Sun@6:15p					Loss
Record: 7-6
Weekly Return: 8.49%
Cumulative Return: 12.5%