Week 6 Preview

Well as things continue to go bad for me, I received a few requests to continue cleaning up the picks so hopefully this helps. Since their is not much drama with my crappy results the last two weeks, the most exciting part is staying eligible for the Bodog bonus. In what seems like a perfect bonus structure for me, they offered a $250 bonus if you get over $100 every week on NFL football. Unfortunately, the current losses are going to make this tougher and tougher. This week I will have to bet some winnings (if I have any) on either the afternoon games or later games just to stay eligible.

Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	Predicted
Baltimore (3-2)	3.00	44.50	20.75	24.00
Minnesota (5-0)	-3.00	44.50	23.75	25.00
Houston (2-3)	5.00	46.00	20.50	21.00
Cincinnati (4-1)	-5.00	46.00	25.50	28.00
Detroit (1-4)	13.50	47.50	17.00	21.00
Green Bay (2-2)	-13.50	47.50	30.50	30.00
NY Giants (5-0)	3.50	47.00	21.75	20.00
New Orleans (4-0)	-3.50	47.00	25.25	20.00
St Louis (0-5)	9.50	43.00	16.75	10.00
Jacksonville (2-3)	-9.50	43.00	26.25	24.00
Cleveland (1-4)	14.00	38.00	12.00	10.00
Pittsburgh (3-2)	-14.00	38.00	26.00	24.00
Carolina (1-3)	-3.00	39.00	21.00	17.00
Tampa Bay (0-5)	3.00	39.00	18.00	17.00
Kansas City (0-5)	6.50	37.00	15.25	16.00
Washington (2-3)	-6.50	37.00	21.75	24.00
Philadelphia (3-1)	-14.00	40.50	27.25	30.00
Oakland (1-4)	14.00	40.50	13.25	10.00
Arizona (2-2)	3.00	46.50	21.75	22.00
Seattle (2-3)	-3.00	46.50	24.75	28.00
Buffalo (1-4)	9.50	37.50	14.00	17.00
NY Jets (3-2)	-9.50	37.50	23.50	24.00
Tennessee (0-5)	9.50	43.00	16.75	14.00
New England (3-2)	-9.50	43.00	26.25	30.00
Chicago (3-1)	3.50	45.50	21.00	20.00
Atlanta (3-1)	-3.50	45.50	24.50	21.00
Denver (5-0)	3.50	43.50	20.00	27.00
San Diego (2-2)	-3.50	43.50	23.50	20.00

Week 5 Review

When you go 2-8 the week before almost any result can be better. Still, I have had the second week below .500 in a row which is not a trend I can afford to keep up. One mistake I am still making is believing teams with "good offenses" will come around. Lets call this the Dallas Cowboys mistake for lack of a better reason. Sure you expect the Cowboys to score against the Chiefs but their offense has struggled all season and their defense has also underperformed. The Patriots also fall under this category. You will go poor quickly if you keep expecting the team to magically reach their hype, follow the trend. The Texans and Jets were both close losses that could have gone either way. The problem is that I can't keep whining about bad beats, sure in theory I should start getting a few breaks but those breaks could all come in Week 16 when I am betting a few pennies on each game.

(401) Minnesota Vikings -11 Sun@11:00a	WIN
(405) Washington Redskins +4½ Sun@11:00a	WIN
(413) Cincinnati Bengals +8½ Sun@11:00a	WIN
(425) Indianapolis Colts -4½ (-105) Sun@6:20p	WIN
(403) Dallas Cowboys -8½ Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(409) Oakland Raiders +16 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(418) San Francisco 49ers -3 (-105) Sun@2:05p	LOSS
(419) New England Patriots -3½ (EVEN) Sun@2:15p	LOSS
(421) Houston Texans +5½ Sun@2:15p	LOSS
(427) New York Jets -2 (-115) Mon@6:35p	LOSS

Weekly Record: 4-6 (40%)

Overall Record: 28-28 (50%)

Spread: 26-24 (52%)

Over/Under: 2-4 (33%)

Weekly Return: -23.21%

Cumulative Return: -48.65%

Week 5 Preview

I didn't have time for write-ups on each game. I did spend time predicting the score but most of my time was looking at last weeks disaster. I put my picks in bold and am hoping to see a Jaguars line, I have seen -3 in some places and I would jump all over that.

Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	Off 3	Def 3	Predicted
Cincinnati (3-1)	9	42.5	16.75	25.7	21.3	19
Baltimore (3-1)	-9	42.5	25.75	28.7	18.7	24
		0
Tampa Bay (0-4)	14.5	41.5	13.5	11	24.3	14
Philadelphia (2-1)	-14.5	41.5	28	31.3	24	28
		0
Dallas (2-2)	-9	43	26	20.7	19	24
Kansas City (0-4)	9	43	17	13.3	24.7	13
Oakland (1-3)	15	38	11.5	7.3	20.7	10
NY Giants (4-0)	-15	38	26.5	28	15.7	21
Minnesota (4-0)	-10	41	25.5	28	20	28
St Louis (0-4)	10	41	15.5	8	26.7	10
Cleveland (0-4)	6	40.5	17.25	9.7	28	10
Buffalo (1-3)	-6	40.5	23.25	16.7	28.3	14
Washington (2-2)	3.5	37.5	17	13	13	14
Carolina (0-3)	-3.5	37.5	20.5	12.3	29	14
Pittsburgh (2-2)	-10.5	44	27.25	24	22.7	28
Detroit (1-3)	10.5	44	16.75	18.7	29.7	20
Atlanta (2-1)	2.5	41	19.25	19	17.7	14
San Francisco (3-1)	-2.5	41	21.75	27.3	12.3	21
New England (3-1)	-3	41	22	20.7	15.7	24
Denver (4-0)	3	41	19	22.3	6.3	14
Houston (2-2)	5.5	50.5	22.5	29	22.7	23
Arizona (1-2)	-5.5	50.5	28	19	22.7	23
Jacksonville (2-2)				28.3	24
Seattle (1-3)				15.3	27.3
Indianapolis (4-0)	-3.5	45.5	24.5	30.7	16.7	28
Tennessee (0-4)	3.5	45.5	21	21.7	31.7	16
NY Jets (3-1)	-1	36	18.5	16.7	16.7	21
Miami (1-3)	1	36	17.5	24.7	20	15

Week 4 Review

I have never been in a train wreck and when I was in a car crash I was very young, so I don't really remember the pain. Unfortunately, after last week's games I can relate to the pain and the slow motion feeling you have as watch and can't change the outcome. To quote Victor Niederhoffer "My checkers teacher said even a bad system is better than no system at all." That is what I tell myself to feel better. As always I will go over the games I lost, all 8 of them and hopefully figure out a flaw or two in the plan.

(215) Seattle Seahawks +10½ (-115) Sun@11:00a

I had the Seahawks predicted score only one point away. The problem is that I missed on the Colts. The problem is that I let the Jaguars game influence my offensive decision. The Colts had scored 27 and 31 the two weeks beforehand. If I had remembered that the Jaguars always play the Colts closer I would have predicted around 28 points and probably picked the Colts. Hopefully this will be corrrected by reviewing teams schedules before picking.

(211) Detroit Lions +10 (-115) Sun@11:00a

The Lions looked like the better team in the first half and it looked like the Bears would struggle for a win. Than Knox returns the second half kick for a touchdown. Than Stafford really starts falling apart, watching the game it was amazing how many open players he missed. If Stafford hits on just a few of these plays the Lions easily cover. Nothing to learn from this game, the breaks just went the Lions way.

(205) Baltimore Ravens vs. (206) New England Patriots Under 45 Sun@11:00a

This loss was very close, the teams only combined for 48 points. Another bad break, Brady fumbles in the end zone and Edwards recovers for a TD. If that play doesn't happen it doesn't give the Ravens such an easy score. This is another loss I can handle, just need a little better red zone defense from either of the teams.

Versteeg is having a great game tonight against the Red Wings

(214) Washington Redskins -7½ Sun@11:00a

Another QB fumble only this time at the beginning of the game. The recovery game Tampa Bay the ball in the red zone and they were able to score a TD. Still, the big mistake was thinking the Redskins would score closer to the Tampa Bay defensive average of 30 than their average of 13. The Redskins are just horrible and I have to keep that in mind going forward. Certain teams have such a poor offense they just aren't going to score a lot of points: Rams, Raiders, Chiefs and Redskins. So this was just a poor bet.

Nebraska needs to give Helu the ball, just run him until he is tired, instead of never giving him the ball. I don't understand, you think they would learn from the Virginia Tech game.

(219) Buffalo Bills -1½ Sun@2:05p

This was an interesting game, the Dolphins had looked horrible all season. I saw Henne play the week before and he looked very bad and the Bills had shown some life. Instead the Dolphins just rammed it down the throat of the Bills. I don't know if this was a bad bet or just the Bills not showing up. It will be interesting to see how both teams play the next few weeks.

(217) New York Jets +7½ (-115) Sun@2:05p

I still think this was a great bet that just saw not one but two bounces not go my way. The Jets were about to score a TD or at least a FG when Sanchez throw an interception for a touchdown. Than Sanchez decided to fumble in the endzone for a TD. If one of these plays don't happen they cover. Finally, Sanchez throws an interception as they are driving at the end of the game for a backdoor cover.

(223) Dallas Cowboys -3 (-115) Sun@2:15p

This was probably the dumbest bet I made of the day. The Broncos have played great defense all season and I dismissed it because of the opponents. Still, the Cowboys had momentum in the game and fell apart. Remember they were up 10-0 at the start of the first quarter. Still, the Broncos are for real, they might not be a top 5 team but they are not a bottom 10 team.

(225) San Diego Chargers +7 (-135) Sun@6:20p

This game was the perfect metaphor for the week. The Chargers went down 28-0 against an offense that had struggled all season. The high flying Chargers looked horrible most of the game. Than they turned it on and made it close before once against making a few mistakes and not covering. The Chargers have a number of injuries on both sides of the ball that really impacted them. This is something to keep in mind going forward.

Weekly Record: 2-8 (20%)

Overall Record: 24-22 (52.2%)

Spread: 22-18 (55%)

Over/Under: 2-4 (33%)

Weekly Return: -60.88%

Cumulative Return: -36.64%

Week 4 Preview

I am feeling a little pressure this week, three straight weeks above .500 and another week above .500 could put me close or over a 100% cumulative return. A very interesting week with 5 games with a spread at or above 9. Sadly, some of those spreads might be too low. This could make for a week of a lot of blowouts and not as exciting TV as last week. We are also getting into bye weeks so a few less games to review and choose from. Fortunately, I found more than enough games this week. As we learned last year, the magic number is 10 games. If I bet less than that, it has to be a percentage of my total purse. For example if I only find 8 games, than its only 80% of the total purse I am spending.

Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	2009 Off	2009 Def	Prediction
The Colts continue to win and Manning looks really good. Still, there offense is only scoring 24 points a game but the preditced number is 27.25. The Seahawks are having some problems but there defense has held up only allowing 16 points a game. I expect the Seahawks to score near the 15 the Colts are giving up but I don't expect the Colts to score more than there 24 a game.
Seattle (1-2)	10.5	44	16.75	19	16	16
Indianapolis (3-0)	-10.5	44	27.25	24	15	24
Sure the Bears could be undefeated if not for a number of mental mistakes made in the Packers game. On the other hand, they could easily be winless. There defense has some injury problems and have been allowing 18 points a game and the Lions have scored 19.7 a game. Vegas is projecting only 14.5 points a game and I think the Lions will score closer to their average at 18. That would mean an offense that is averaging 19 points a game would need to score over 18 to cover. I just don't see that happening, so I am taking the Lions.
Detroit (1-2)	10	39	14.5	19.7	28.7	18
Chicago (2-1)	-10	39	24.5	19	18	26
Very rarely does switching QBs work for a team, it seems like the Browns have already quit on their new coach. They are only averaging 10 points a game and the Bengals defense has been strong. I don't expect the Browns to score anywhere close to the 16 points a game Vegas has projected. I also think the Bengals will score a little bit better than their average considering the Browns are giving up almost 32 points a game. I am taking the Bengals
Cincinnati (2-1)	-5.5	38	21.75	20.3	18.7	23
Cleveland (0-3)	5.5	38	16.25	9.7	31.7	10
The Patriots finally scored some points on offense and their defense continues to be strong. Both of these teams are allowing 17 points a game. I just find it hard to believe this game is going to be a 24-24 type game and get to the total number. I see the under being the correct bet.
Baltimore (3-0)	1	44.5	21.75	34.3	17.7	17
New England (2-1)	-1	44.5	22.75	20	16.7	17
I remember last year when the Texans blew the Raiders game and Andre Johnson was shut down. The difference is that this game is in Houston. I still have no faith in the Texans and Schaub has already played three games without getting killed, that’s probably going to change. On the other hand, I can't take the Raiders on the road they have looked horrible and I think 1-15 is possible. So I am passing on this game.
Oakland (1-2)	9	42.5	16.75	12	19	14
Houston (1-2)	-9	42.5	25.75	21.7	28.7	21
The Giants do look really good this season averaging 27 points a game and playing a team allowing 28. The Chiefs are scoring 16 points a game and the Giants are allowing 16 points a game. That makes a difference of 12 points and the spread is only nine. If there is upside in either number it has to be for the Giants. So I am taking the Giants.
NY Giants (3-0)	-9	42	25.5	26.7	16	28
Kansas City (0-3)	9	42	16.5	16	28.3	16
I had the "pleasure" of watching most of the Tampa Bay game last week. They looked horrible, so switching QB's didn't shock me. Still, I don't expect them to score even the 13 points a game they are averaging. They will be lucky for double digits. The best solution for the struggling Redskins offense averaging 13 points is playing a defense allowing 30 points. I don't think the Redskins put up 30 put I wouldn't be surprised with mid 20's. That has me taking the Redskins.
Tampa Bay (0-3)	7	37	15	13.7	30.3	10
Washington (1-2)	-7	37	22	13.3	16.3	24
Its amazing that these two teams were preseason talk of being in the playoffs. Now the loser of this game can already book their January vacation. Both of these teams are allowing 23 points a game and scoring 20 points a game. That looks like a tie to me, but its being played in Jacksonville. I was amazed to see that the Jaguars were getting 3 points. It might not seem a lot but I am taking them and the three.
Tennessee (0-3)	-3	41.5	22.25	19.3	23.7	23
Jacksonville (1-2)	3	41.5	19.25	20	23	23
I rewatched the Dolphins game this week and I don't have much faith in Chad Henne, I think there was a reason why Pennington was starting. The Dolphins are only averaging 14 points a game and I think they will be lucky to score 17. There defense is allowing 23 points a game and the Bills are scoring over 21. Both of these numbers are higher than the 19 Vegas has predicted. So I am taking the Bills.
Buffalo (1-2)	-1	37	19	21.3	24	23
Miami (0-3)	1	37	18	14.3	23	17
If we have learned anything from last year, it's that good defense always trumps a good offense. The Jets defense has been amazing only allowing 11 points a game. Vegas is predicting 15 points for the Saints. I don't buy it, I am being liberal and giving them 10 more points. Giving the Saints 21 points, you just need the Jets to score more than 14 points to cover and I see that happening. Taking the Jets.
NY Jets (3-0)	7	45	19	21.3	11	20
New Orleans (3-0)	-7	45	26	40	18.7	21
This is one of those games were I am exactly predicting the what Vegas in projecting. The biggest stretch might be the Rams scoring 14 points when they are only averaging 8 points a game. Yet, the 49ers are allowing almost 18 points a game. I am going to pass on this game, I think this score is very close.
St Louis (0-3)	9.5	37.5	14	8	24.3	14
San Francisco (2-1)	-9.5	37.5	23.5	22.3	17.7	24
Sure the Broncos have a great defense, but they have played the Bengals, Browns and Raiders. I call that a tainted pool and too small of a sample size. I am willing to bet the Cowboys score their average of 28 points a game and cover the spread.
Dallas (2-1)	-3	42.5	22.75	28.7	20.3	28
Denver (3-0)	3	42.5	19.75	20.7	5.3	20
The Steelers offense has looked very poor all season. They have only score 16 points a game so it seems crazy to me to expect them to score almost 25 points, with a defense that has only allowed 21 a game. With an expectation of 17 points for the Steelers I just need the Chargers to score double digits to cover, and I see that happening very easily with an offnense scoring 24 points a game.
San Diego (2-1)	6.5	43	18.25	24.3	21.3	18
Pittsburgh (1-2)	-6.5	43	24.75	15.7	16.7	17
I have been doing so well on Monday night games, 3-0, that it is very tough to pass on this game. I just think these are two very close and equal teams and there will be a lot of emotion involved in this game and hopefully a Favre career ending injury. I see the Vikins winning by 3 which is very close to the 3.5 vegas has so I am passing.
Green Bay (2-1)	3.5	45	20.75	27	21	20
Minnesota (3-0)	-3.5	45	24.25	29.3	19	23