Week 4 Preview

I am feeling a little pressure this week, three straight weeks above .500 and another week above .500 could put me close or over a 100% cumulative return. A very interesting week with 5 games with a spread at or above 9. Sadly, some of those spreads might be too low. This could make for a week of a lot of blowouts and not as exciting TV as last week. We are also getting into bye weeks so a few less games to review and choose from. Fortunately, I found more than enough games this week. As we learned last year, the magic number is 10 games. If I bet less than that, it has to be a percentage of my total purse. For example if I only find 8 games, than its only 80% of the total purse I am spending.

Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	2009 Off	2009 Def	Prediction
The Colts continue to win and Manning looks really good. Still, there offense is only scoring 24 points a game but the preditced number is 27.25. The Seahawks are having some problems but there defense has held up only allowing 16 points a game. I expect the Seahawks to score near the 15 the Colts are giving up but I don't expect the Colts to score more than there 24 a game.
Seattle (1-2)	10.5	44	16.75	19	16	16
Indianapolis (3-0)	-10.5	44	27.25	24	15	24
Sure the Bears could be undefeated if not for a number of mental mistakes made in the Packers game. On the other hand, they could easily be winless. There defense has some injury problems and have been allowing 18 points a game and the Lions have scored 19.7 a game. Vegas is projecting only 14.5 points a game and I think the Lions will score closer to their average at 18. That would mean an offense that is averaging 19 points a game would need to score over 18 to cover. I just don't see that happening, so I am taking the Lions.
Detroit (1-2)	10	39	14.5	19.7	28.7	18
Chicago (2-1)	-10	39	24.5	19	18	26
Very rarely does switching QBs work for a team, it seems like the Browns have already quit on their new coach. They are only averaging 10 points a game and the Bengals defense has been strong. I don't expect the Browns to score anywhere close to the 16 points a game Vegas has projected. I also think the Bengals will score a little bit better than their average considering the Browns are giving up almost 32 points a game. I am taking the Bengals
Cincinnati (2-1)	-5.5	38	21.75	20.3	18.7	23
Cleveland (0-3)	5.5	38	16.25	9.7	31.7	10
The Patriots finally scored some points on offense and their defense continues to be strong. Both of these teams are allowing 17 points a game. I just find it hard to believe this game is going to be a 24-24 type game and get to the total number. I see the under being the correct bet.
Baltimore (3-0)	1	44.5	21.75	34.3	17.7	17
New England (2-1)	-1	44.5	22.75	20	16.7	17
I remember last year when the Texans blew the Raiders game and Andre Johnson was shut down. The difference is that this game is in Houston. I still have no faith in the Texans and Schaub has already played three games without getting killed, that’s probably going to change. On the other hand, I can't take the Raiders on the road they have looked horrible and I think 1-15 is possible. So I am passing on this game.
Oakland (1-2)	9	42.5	16.75	12	19	14
Houston (1-2)	-9	42.5	25.75	21.7	28.7	21
The Giants do look really good this season averaging 27 points a game and playing a team allowing 28. The Chiefs are scoring 16 points a game and the Giants are allowing 16 points a game. That makes a difference of 12 points and the spread is only nine. If there is upside in either number it has to be for the Giants. So I am taking the Giants.
NY Giants (3-0)	-9	42	25.5	26.7	16	28
Kansas City (0-3)	9	42	16.5	16	28.3	16
I had the "pleasure" of watching most of the Tampa Bay game last week. They looked horrible, so switching QB's didn't shock me. Still, I don't expect them to score even the 13 points a game they are averaging. They will be lucky for double digits. The best solution for the struggling Redskins offense averaging 13 points is playing a defense allowing 30 points. I don't think the Redskins put up 30 put I wouldn't be surprised with mid 20's. That has me taking the Redskins.
Tampa Bay (0-3)	7	37	15	13.7	30.3	10
Washington (1-2)	-7	37	22	13.3	16.3	24
Its amazing that these two teams were preseason talk of being in the playoffs. Now the loser of this game can already book their January vacation. Both of these teams are allowing 23 points a game and scoring 20 points a game. That looks like a tie to me, but its being played in Jacksonville. I was amazed to see that the Jaguars were getting 3 points. It might not seem a lot but I am taking them and the three.
Tennessee (0-3)	-3	41.5	22.25	19.3	23.7	23
Jacksonville (1-2)	3	41.5	19.25	20	23	23
I rewatched the Dolphins game this week and I don't have much faith in Chad Henne, I think there was a reason why Pennington was starting. The Dolphins are only averaging 14 points a game and I think they will be lucky to score 17. There defense is allowing 23 points a game and the Bills are scoring over 21. Both of these numbers are higher than the 19 Vegas has predicted. So I am taking the Bills.
Buffalo (1-2)	-1	37	19	21.3	24	23
Miami (0-3)	1	37	18	14.3	23	17
If we have learned anything from last year, it's that good defense always trumps a good offense. The Jets defense has been amazing only allowing 11 points a game. Vegas is predicting 15 points for the Saints. I don't buy it, I am being liberal and giving them 10 more points. Giving the Saints 21 points, you just need the Jets to score more than 14 points to cover and I see that happening. Taking the Jets.
NY Jets (3-0)	7	45	19	21.3	11	20
New Orleans (3-0)	-7	45	26	40	18.7	21
This is one of those games were I am exactly predicting the what Vegas in projecting. The biggest stretch might be the Rams scoring 14 points when they are only averaging 8 points a game. Yet, the 49ers are allowing almost 18 points a game. I am going to pass on this game, I think this score is very close.
St Louis (0-3)	9.5	37.5	14	8	24.3	14
San Francisco (2-1)	-9.5	37.5	23.5	22.3	17.7	24
Sure the Broncos have a great defense, but they have played the Bengals, Browns and Raiders. I call that a tainted pool and too small of a sample size. I am willing to bet the Cowboys score their average of 28 points a game and cover the spread.
Dallas (2-1)	-3	42.5	22.75	28.7	20.3	28
Denver (3-0)	3	42.5	19.75	20.7	5.3	20
The Steelers offense has looked very poor all season. They have only score 16 points a game so it seems crazy to me to expect them to score almost 25 points, with a defense that has only allowed 21 a game. With an expectation of 17 points for the Steelers I just need the Chargers to score double digits to cover, and I see that happening very easily with an offnense scoring 24 points a game.
San Diego (2-1)	6.5	43	18.25	24.3	21.3	18
Pittsburgh (1-2)	-6.5	43	24.75	15.7	16.7	17
I have been doing so well on Monday night games, 3-0, that it is very tough to pass on this game. I just think these are two very close and equal teams and there will be a lot of emotion involved in this game and hopefully a Favre career ending injury. I see the Vikins winning by 3 which is very close to the 3.5 vegas has so I am passing.
Green Bay (2-1)	3.5	45	20.75	27	21	20
Minnesota (3-0)	-3.5	45	24.25	29.3	19	23

Week 3 Preview

Below are the previews. I have changed it this year, I go through each game and look at the scores. Than I come back and write about the games. I use to write and predict scores at the same time. This way if I get tired of writing about a game I have already spent a good amount of time on the score. I would rather have a crappy summary than a crappy score prediction. Below are the previews:

Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	2009 Off	2009 Def	Prediction
These could be two of the worst teams in football. The Lions hope this is a chance to break their 19 game losing streak. The problem is that the Redskins might be bad, but I don't think they are Lions bad. The problem is that the Redskins are favored by 6 points on the road on a different turf then they are use to playing against. I am going to pass on this game.
Washington (1-1)	-6	38.5	22.25	13	15	21
Detroit (0-2)	6	38.5	16.25	20	36	14
One thing I remember from last year is that a team that couldn't score would continue not to score. Sure you expect the Patriots to score a lot of points but they have no running game and a QB who is struggling much like Manning did coming back from his injury. I don't expect them to breakout against a strong Falcons defense. I expect the Falcons to score 21 points the same as the Patriots, I am taking the Falcons and the 4.
Atlanta (2-0)	4	46.5	21.25	23.5	13.5	21
New England (1-1)	-4	46.5	25.25	17	20	21
Unfortunately, the Vikings look like the real deal. They are averaging 30 points a game and I expect them to keep scoring until someone can stop AP. The 49ers have been a good story but this is a tough place to play and their QB is still Shaun Hill. I expect them to score the 17 points a game the Vikings are giving up. The tells me to take the Vikings.
San Francisco (2-0)	6.5	40	16.75	21.5	13	17
Minnesota (2-0)	-6.5	40	23.25	30.5	16.5	28
Once again, when a team isn't scoring points it usually means they are not going to score points. The Rams have scored a total of 7 points in two games. I don't know if they could score 17 points against anyone in the NFL at this point. They might be lucky to score 10 points. The Packers should score at least 21 points. I am taking the Packers.
Green Bay (1-1)	-6.5	41	23.75	22.5	23	21
St Louis (0-2)	6.5	41	17.25	3.5	18.5	10
The Ravens are averaging 34 points a game and the Browns are giving up close to that many points. I am a little surprised that Vegas has them only at 26 points. I expect them to score almost 35 points and the Browns would need to score over 22 points for the Ravens not to cover. I don't see that happening at all, another crappy offense.
Cleveland (0-2)	13	38.5	12.75	13	30.5	17
Baltimore (2-0)	-13	38.5	25.75	34.5	25	34
The Giants are averaging 28 points a game and Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 34 points a game. I see the Giants scoring at least the 34 points in this game. The Tampa Bay defense you know from the past is gone. Tampa Bay would have to score 27 points for the Giants not to cover. I don't see that happening with their offense combined with the Giants defense.
NY Giants (2-0)	-6.5	44	25.25	28	24	30
Tampa Bay (0-2)	6.5	44	18.75	20.5	33.5	20
I was all about to write about doubting the Jets and taking the Titans. Than I remembered that the stats are all pointing to the Jets winning and winning big. I am not going to take the Jets but even better I am not taking the Titans. I am going to pass on this game.
Tennessee (0-2)	1	36.5	17.75	20.5	23.5	20
NY Jets (2-0)	-1	36.5	18.75	20	8	21
The Eagles are scoring 30 points a game while the Chiefs are allowing 25 points a game. I expect the Eagles to score 30 points. The Chiefs have scored 17 points a game and that’s what I expect them to score against the Eagles. That’s a lot bigger difference than Vegas has.
Kansas City (0-2)	9	42	16.5	17	25.5	14
Philadelphia (1-1)	-9	42	25.5	30	29	28
I am still not sold on the Texans and I expect them to score the 21 points a game they are averaging. The bigger issue are the Jaguars. They are only averaing 14 points a game but the Texans are allowing 28 points a game. I think they split the difference and the Jaguars get 21 points. This puts it at basically a tie which means I am taking the Jaguars ina very close game.
Jacksonville (0-2)	3.5	47	21.75	14.5	22.5	21
Houston (1-1)	-3.5	47	25.25	20.5	27.5	22
The Bears are a dumb long snap away from being 2-0. Their offensive numbers aren't great but it was against the Packers and the Steelers. I think they score a little more than the 16 points a game they are averaging, with 21. I think the Seahawks will score the 17 points a game the Bears are giving up.
Chicago (1-1)	-1	37	19	16	17.5	21
Seattle (1-1)	1	37	18	19	11.5	17
I am going to keep riding the Bills and the over. I am going on the theory that they will run more plays because of the no huddle. I also like that Vegas has a lower projected offensive number for both teams. So over it is.
New Orleans (2-0)	-6	52	29	46.5	24.5	35
Buffalo (1-1)	6	52	23	28.5	22.5	28
At first I would jump all over the Chargers and this game. The problem is they are without their center and this has always been a problem for teams. On the other hand, its hard to take an east coast team traveling to the west coast after a Monday night game. Pass.
Miami (0-2)	6	44	19	15	23	21
San Diego (1-1)	-6	44	25	25	25.5	25
The Broncos continue to play great defense. At some point you might expect them to give up more than 6.5 points a game. The good news is that point will probably not be reached by the Raiders who have struggled on offense all season. I expect the Raiders to be lucky to score 11 points. That means the Broncos only have to score 13 points to cover. I am taking the Broncos.
Denver (2-0)	-1	36.5	18.75	19.5	6.5	19
Oakland (1-1)	1	36.5	17.75	16.5	17	11
I concur that the Steelers will score 21 points, it is above their season average but close to what the Bengals are allowing. On the other hand, I think the Bengals will score less than their 19 points a game they are averaging and even less than the 16.5 Vegas has them scoring. I am taking the Steelers in a very important game for them.
Pittsburgh (1-1)	-4	37	20.5	13.5	13.5	21
Cincinnati (1-1)	4	37	16.5	19	18	14
I don't think there is a team in the NFC that the Colts should be underdogs against, especially the Cardinals who lost to the 49ers.
Indianapolis (2-0)	2.5	48	22.75	20.5	17.5	24
Arizona (1-1)	-2.5	48	25.25	23.5	18.5	21
Until Jake Delhomme has a good game I am betting against him and the Panthers everytime I have the chance.
Carolina (0-2)	9	47.5	19.25	15	33	21
Dallas (1-1)	-9	47.5	28.25	32.5	27	33

Divisional Playoff Results

Another strong week in the playoffs, this time going undefeated and getting all four games correct. That is right, I went 4-0 and I am now 7-1 over the playoffs. Of course, I only bet 40% of my pile so the returns are not as high as you might expect. Still, it is great to see such success since reverse engineering.

(301) Baltimore Ravens +3 (-120) Sat@3:30p	Win
(303) Arizona Cardinals +10 Sat@7:15p	Win
(305) Philadelphia Eagles +4 Sun@12:00p	Win
(308) Pittsburgh Steelers -6 Sun@3:45p	Win

Weekly Record: 4-0
Playoff Record: 7-1
Overall Record: 92-77-5 (54.44%)
Record since reverse engineering: 35-20-1 (63.63%)
Weekly Return: 35.59%
Cumulative Return: -41.53%

First Round of Playoffs Preview

With three weeks of data I was able to run some more regression analysis. It was pretty amazing but what ended up being the most significant information were two items. For the visiting team the most important factor was the point allowed per home game for the home team. It was almost 99% significant. This makes sense because it was the 6th-8th game for the home team and the number was probably a good indication of how well they play defense at home.

For the home team the most important factor was the three week average defense for the visiting team. This also makes a lot of sense. It is tougher for a visiting team and why Vegas always gives the home team three points. The NFL and sports in general is about momentum. So it stands to reason a visiting team is going to play as good or bad as their last three weeks.

Enough of the geek speak and onto the games.

Teams	Spread	O/U	Predicted	Off Avg	Def Avg	Def 3	Def H	Def A	Projected
The Cardinals are allowing 34 points a game over their last three and have allowed 22 points a game at home over the season. This includes home games against the 49ers, the Rams and the Seahawks. Atlanta has been scoring around 20 points a game on the road, over the season and for the last three games. I will give them 28 because of the poor Cardinals defense as of late and at home. The Cardinals are only averaging 18 points a game over the last three. The Falcons are only allowing 18 points a game over the last three. In fact Atlanta is strong at 20 points for all their defensive numbers. I will give the Cardinals 21.
Atlanta (#7, 11-5)	-1	51	26	24.4	20.3	18	20.5	20.1	28	Atlanta
Arizona (#18, 9-7)	1	51	25	26.7	26.6	34.3	22.2	31	21
This is a hard game to call both teams have weaknesses and the Chargers seem to match up well against the Colts. This is the classic offense versus defense game. I believe that a good defense will hold down a good offense and this game will be lower scoring than predicted. If I had a gun to my head I would pick the Colts, because its Norv Turner. The under seams a better play, these teams are allowing 37 points a game combined over the last 3.
Indianapolis (#3, 12-4)	-1	51	26	23.6	18.6	15	15.1	22.1	20	Under
San Diego (#15, 8-8)	1	51	25	27.4	21.7	22	19.6	23.8	21
The Ravens have been very good to me all season. The Dolphins are allowing 20 points a game on all their stats. Baltimore is scoring even more but I could conservatively give Baltimore 20. Next, the Dolphins are only averaging 19 points a game at home and 17 for the season. The Ravens are allowing 15 points a game over the last three and the season. I see Miami being lucky to score 15.
Baltimore (#4, 11-5)	-3	37.5	20.25	24.1	15.2	14.7	10	20.5	20	Baltimore
Miami (#11, 11-5)	3	37.5	17.25	21.6	19.8	19	20.5	19.1	15
Before even looking at the stats for this game remember Tavaris Jackson is the starting QB. The Eagles are clicking on defense allowing 9 points a game over their last three. I just don't have faith in a one dimensional offense doing well in the playoffs and think the Eagles will hold the Vikings to 14 points. The Eagles offense has been scoring a ton of points except for the Redskins game which I still can't explain. The Vikings are allowing 20 points a game over the season and the last three. They have been a little better at home, but Williams if he does play will be injured. Just a reminder, Tavaris Jackson is starting for the Vikings.
Philadelphia (#8, 9-6-1)	-3	41.5	22.25	26	18.1	8.7	14.8	21.4	21	Philadelphia
Minnesota (#10, 10-6)	3	41.5	19.25	23.7	20.8	19	17.9	23.8	14

Week 17 Preview

Sorry for the late posts, the holiday's made it tough. Again I looked at the last three weeks but I felt like I put to much emphasis on it last week. So I also looked at the breakdowns on rushing, passing and overall yards per attempt. Finally, I put a little more weight on teams that were playing for something. For example, I expect the Bears to put everything on the line with a potential playoff spot on the line. I don't expect the Texans to have as much emotion, this is also the same team that lost to the Raiders last week.

Teams	Spread	O/U	Predicted	2008	Off 3	2008	Def 3	Projected
Chicago (#13, 9-6)	3	47	22	23.4	23.3	21.3	17	24	Chicago
Houston (#18, 7-8)	-3	47	25	22.3	17.7	24.7	20	18
Carolina (#6, 11-4)	-1	51	26	25.4	32	19.9	22.3	30	Carolina
New Orleans (#14, 8-7)	1	51	25	28.8	31.7	24	19.7	28
NY Giants (#2, 12-3)	7	42	18	27.2	18.7	18.3	22.7	19	Giants
Minnesota (#9, 9-6)	-7	42	25	23.9	24	20.9	18	23
New England (#11, 10-5)	-6	40	23	26.5	40	20.6	18	28	New England
Buffalo (#24, 7-8)	6	40	17	22.4	20	21.9	23.3	17
St Louis (#31, 2-13)	14	45	15	13.7	15.3	28.9	24.7	15	St Louis
Atlanta (#7, 10-5)	-14	45	29	24	20.7	19.9	18.7	24
Oakland (#28, 4-11)	13	39	13	15.5	20	24.3	33	16	Oakland
Tampa Bay (#12, 9-6)	-13	39	26	22.5	19	19.5	30.7	22
Kansas City (#30, 2-13)	3	39	18	19	23	28.3	28	21	Kansas City
Cincinnati (#25, 3-11-1)	-3	39	21	12.5	12.3	23.9	16	12
Tennessee (#1, 13-2)	-3	39	21	25	23.7	14.1	12	24	Over
Indianapolis (#5, 11-4)	3	39	18	23.6	32.3	19.9	16	26
Detroit (#32, 0-15)	10.5	43	16	16.5	14.7	32.4	31	15	Under
Green Bay (#21, 5-10)	-10.5	43	27	25.9	18	23.9	21.3	24
Cleveland (#26, 4-11)	11	34	11	15.5	6.3	21.3	24	7
Pittsburgh (#3, 11-4)	-11	34	22	21.1	15.7	14.9	17.7	21	Pittsburgh
Miami (#15, 10-5)	3	43	20	21.4	22.7	20	14.3	21
NY Jets (#19, 9-6)	-3	43	23	25.9	16	22.1	21.3	24
Dallas (#10, 9-6)	1	43	21	23.7	19	21.4	20.3
Philadelphia (#8, 8-6-1)	-1	43	22	24.8	17.7	18.9	11.3
Seattle (#29, 4-11)	6.5	46	20	18.2	19	23.9	15.7	19
Arizona (#20, 8-7)	-6.5	46	26	26.2	18.3	27	30.7	28	Arizona
Washington (#16, 8-7)	3	38	17	16.1	11	17.9	15.7	14	Under
San Francisco (#27, 6-9)	-3	38	20	20.8	16.7	23.8	14.7	17
Jacksonville (#23, 5-10)	11	38	13	19.7	18	22.7	23.3	14	Jacksonville
Baltimore (#4, 10-5)	-11	38	24	23.9	22	15.8	15.7	20
Denver (#22, 8-7)	9	51	21	23.3	19	26.4	25.7	21	Denver
San Diego (#17, 7-8)	-9	51	30	25.8	32.3	21.7	17.3	24