Week 4 Preview

I am feeling a little pressure this week, three straight weeks above .500 and another week above .500 could put me close or over a 100% cumulative return. A very interesting week with 5 games with a spread at or above 9. Sadly, some of those spreads might be too low. This could make for a week of a lot of blowouts and not as exciting TV as last week. We are also getting into bye weeks so a few less games to review and choose from. Fortunately, I found more than enough games this week. As we learned last year, the magic number is 10 games. If I bet less than that, it has to be a percentage of my total purse. For example if I only find 8 games, than its only 80% of the total purse I am spending.

Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	2009 Off	2009 Def	Prediction
The Colts continue to win and Manning looks really good. Still, there offense is only scoring 24 points a game but the preditced number is 27.25. The Seahawks are having some problems but there defense has held up only allowing 16 points a game. I expect the Seahawks to score near the 15 the Colts are giving up but I don't expect the Colts to score more than there 24 a game.
Seattle (1-2)	10.5	44	16.75	19	16	16
Indianapolis (3-0)	-10.5	44	27.25	24	15	24
Sure the Bears could be undefeated if not for a number of mental mistakes made in the Packers game. On the other hand, they could easily be winless. There defense has some injury problems and have been allowing 18 points a game and the Lions have scored 19.7 a game. Vegas is projecting only 14.5 points a game and I think the Lions will score closer to their average at 18. That would mean an offense that is averaging 19 points a game would need to score over 18 to cover. I just don't see that happening, so I am taking the Lions.
Detroit (1-2)	10	39	14.5	19.7	28.7	18
Chicago (2-1)	-10	39	24.5	19	18	26
Very rarely does switching QBs work for a team, it seems like the Browns have already quit on their new coach. They are only averaging 10 points a game and the Bengals defense has been strong. I don't expect the Browns to score anywhere close to the 16 points a game Vegas has projected. I also think the Bengals will score a little bit better than their average considering the Browns are giving up almost 32 points a game. I am taking the Bengals
Cincinnati (2-1)	-5.5	38	21.75	20.3	18.7	23
Cleveland (0-3)	5.5	38	16.25	9.7	31.7	10
The Patriots finally scored some points on offense and their defense continues to be strong. Both of these teams are allowing 17 points a game. I just find it hard to believe this game is going to be a 24-24 type game and get to the total number. I see the under being the correct bet.
Baltimore (3-0)	1	44.5	21.75	34.3	17.7	17
New England (2-1)	-1	44.5	22.75	20	16.7	17
I remember last year when the Texans blew the Raiders game and Andre Johnson was shut down. The difference is that this game is in Houston. I still have no faith in the Texans and Schaub has already played three games without getting killed, that’s probably going to change. On the other hand, I can't take the Raiders on the road they have looked horrible and I think 1-15 is possible. So I am passing on this game.
Oakland (1-2)	9	42.5	16.75	12	19	14
Houston (1-2)	-9	42.5	25.75	21.7	28.7	21
The Giants do look really good this season averaging 27 points a game and playing a team allowing 28. The Chiefs are scoring 16 points a game and the Giants are allowing 16 points a game. That makes a difference of 12 points and the spread is only nine. If there is upside in either number it has to be for the Giants. So I am taking the Giants.
NY Giants (3-0)	-9	42	25.5	26.7	16	28
Kansas City (0-3)	9	42	16.5	16	28.3	16
I had the "pleasure" of watching most of the Tampa Bay game last week. They looked horrible, so switching QB's didn't shock me. Still, I don't expect them to score even the 13 points a game they are averaging. They will be lucky for double digits. The best solution for the struggling Redskins offense averaging 13 points is playing a defense allowing 30 points. I don't think the Redskins put up 30 put I wouldn't be surprised with mid 20's. That has me taking the Redskins.
Tampa Bay (0-3)	7	37	15	13.7	30.3	10
Washington (1-2)	-7	37	22	13.3	16.3	24
Its amazing that these two teams were preseason talk of being in the playoffs. Now the loser of this game can already book their January vacation. Both of these teams are allowing 23 points a game and scoring 20 points a game. That looks like a tie to me, but its being played in Jacksonville. I was amazed to see that the Jaguars were getting 3 points. It might not seem a lot but I am taking them and the three.
Tennessee (0-3)	-3	41.5	22.25	19.3	23.7	23
Jacksonville (1-2)	3	41.5	19.25	20	23	23
I rewatched the Dolphins game this week and I don't have much faith in Chad Henne, I think there was a reason why Pennington was starting. The Dolphins are only averaging 14 points a game and I think they will be lucky to score 17. There defense is allowing 23 points a game and the Bills are scoring over 21. Both of these numbers are higher than the 19 Vegas has predicted. So I am taking the Bills.
Buffalo (1-2)	-1	37	19	21.3	24	23
Miami (0-3)	1	37	18	14.3	23	17
If we have learned anything from last year, it's that good defense always trumps a good offense. The Jets defense has been amazing only allowing 11 points a game. Vegas is predicting 15 points for the Saints. I don't buy it, I am being liberal and giving them 10 more points. Giving the Saints 21 points, you just need the Jets to score more than 14 points to cover and I see that happening. Taking the Jets.
NY Jets (3-0)	7	45	19	21.3	11	20
New Orleans (3-0)	-7	45	26	40	18.7	21
This is one of those games were I am exactly predicting the what Vegas in projecting. The biggest stretch might be the Rams scoring 14 points when they are only averaging 8 points a game. Yet, the 49ers are allowing almost 18 points a game. I am going to pass on this game, I think this score is very close.
St Louis (0-3)	9.5	37.5	14	8	24.3	14
San Francisco (2-1)	-9.5	37.5	23.5	22.3	17.7	24
Sure the Broncos have a great defense, but they have played the Bengals, Browns and Raiders. I call that a tainted pool and too small of a sample size. I am willing to bet the Cowboys score their average of 28 points a game and cover the spread.
Dallas (2-1)	-3	42.5	22.75	28.7	20.3	28
Denver (3-0)	3	42.5	19.75	20.7	5.3	20
The Steelers offense has looked very poor all season. They have only score 16 points a game so it seems crazy to me to expect them to score almost 25 points, with a defense that has only allowed 21 a game. With an expectation of 17 points for the Steelers I just need the Chargers to score double digits to cover, and I see that happening very easily with an offnense scoring 24 points a game.
San Diego (2-1)	6.5	43	18.25	24.3	21.3	18
Pittsburgh (1-2)	-6.5	43	24.75	15.7	16.7	17
I have been doing so well on Monday night games, 3-0, that it is very tough to pass on this game. I just think these are two very close and equal teams and there will be a lot of emotion involved in this game and hopefully a Favre career ending injury. I see the Vikins winning by 3 which is very close to the 3.5 vegas has so I am passing.
Green Bay (2-1)	3.5	45	20.75	27	21	20
Minnesota (3-0)	-3.5	45	24.25	29.3	19	23

Week 3 Preview

Below are the previews. I have changed it this year, I go through each game and look at the scores. Than I come back and write about the games. I use to write and predict scores at the same time. This way if I get tired of writing about a game I have already spent a good amount of time on the score. I would rather have a crappy summary than a crappy score prediction. Below are the previews:

Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	2009 Off	2009 Def	Prediction
These could be two of the worst teams in football. The Lions hope this is a chance to break their 19 game losing streak. The problem is that the Redskins might be bad, but I don't think they are Lions bad. The problem is that the Redskins are favored by 6 points on the road on a different turf then they are use to playing against. I am going to pass on this game.
Washington (1-1)	-6	38.5	22.25	13	15	21
Detroit (0-2)	6	38.5	16.25	20	36	14
One thing I remember from last year is that a team that couldn't score would continue not to score. Sure you expect the Patriots to score a lot of points but they have no running game and a QB who is struggling much like Manning did coming back from his injury. I don't expect them to breakout against a strong Falcons defense. I expect the Falcons to score 21 points the same as the Patriots, I am taking the Falcons and the 4.
Atlanta (2-0)	4	46.5	21.25	23.5	13.5	21
New England (1-1)	-4	46.5	25.25	17	20	21
Unfortunately, the Vikings look like the real deal. They are averaging 30 points a game and I expect them to keep scoring until someone can stop AP. The 49ers have been a good story but this is a tough place to play and their QB is still Shaun Hill. I expect them to score the 17 points a game the Vikings are giving up. The tells me to take the Vikings.
San Francisco (2-0)	6.5	40	16.75	21.5	13	17
Minnesota (2-0)	-6.5	40	23.25	30.5	16.5	28
Once again, when a team isn't scoring points it usually means they are not going to score points. The Rams have scored a total of 7 points in two games. I don't know if they could score 17 points against anyone in the NFL at this point. They might be lucky to score 10 points. The Packers should score at least 21 points. I am taking the Packers.
Green Bay (1-1)	-6.5	41	23.75	22.5	23	21
St Louis (0-2)	6.5	41	17.25	3.5	18.5	10
The Ravens are averaging 34 points a game and the Browns are giving up close to that many points. I am a little surprised that Vegas has them only at 26 points. I expect them to score almost 35 points and the Browns would need to score over 22 points for the Ravens not to cover. I don't see that happening at all, another crappy offense.
Cleveland (0-2)	13	38.5	12.75	13	30.5	17
Baltimore (2-0)	-13	38.5	25.75	34.5	25	34
The Giants are averaging 28 points a game and Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 34 points a game. I see the Giants scoring at least the 34 points in this game. The Tampa Bay defense you know from the past is gone. Tampa Bay would have to score 27 points for the Giants not to cover. I don't see that happening with their offense combined with the Giants defense.
NY Giants (2-0)	-6.5	44	25.25	28	24	30
Tampa Bay (0-2)	6.5	44	18.75	20.5	33.5	20
I was all about to write about doubting the Jets and taking the Titans. Than I remembered that the stats are all pointing to the Jets winning and winning big. I am not going to take the Jets but even better I am not taking the Titans. I am going to pass on this game.
Tennessee (0-2)	1	36.5	17.75	20.5	23.5	20
NY Jets (2-0)	-1	36.5	18.75	20	8	21
The Eagles are scoring 30 points a game while the Chiefs are allowing 25 points a game. I expect the Eagles to score 30 points. The Chiefs have scored 17 points a game and that’s what I expect them to score against the Eagles. That’s a lot bigger difference than Vegas has.
Kansas City (0-2)	9	42	16.5	17	25.5	14
Philadelphia (1-1)	-9	42	25.5	30	29	28
I am still not sold on the Texans and I expect them to score the 21 points a game they are averaging. The bigger issue are the Jaguars. They are only averaing 14 points a game but the Texans are allowing 28 points a game. I think they split the difference and the Jaguars get 21 points. This puts it at basically a tie which means I am taking the Jaguars ina very close game.
Jacksonville (0-2)	3.5	47	21.75	14.5	22.5	21
Houston (1-1)	-3.5	47	25.25	20.5	27.5	22
The Bears are a dumb long snap away from being 2-0. Their offensive numbers aren't great but it was against the Packers and the Steelers. I think they score a little more than the 16 points a game they are averaging, with 21. I think the Seahawks will score the 17 points a game the Bears are giving up.
Chicago (1-1)	-1	37	19	16	17.5	21
Seattle (1-1)	1	37	18	19	11.5	17
I am going to keep riding the Bills and the over. I am going on the theory that they will run more plays because of the no huddle. I also like that Vegas has a lower projected offensive number for both teams. So over it is.
New Orleans (2-0)	-6	52	29	46.5	24.5	35
Buffalo (1-1)	6	52	23	28.5	22.5	28
At first I would jump all over the Chargers and this game. The problem is they are without their center and this has always been a problem for teams. On the other hand, its hard to take an east coast team traveling to the west coast after a Monday night game. Pass.
Miami (0-2)	6	44	19	15	23	21
San Diego (1-1)	-6	44	25	25	25.5	25
The Broncos continue to play great defense. At some point you might expect them to give up more than 6.5 points a game. The good news is that point will probably not be reached by the Raiders who have struggled on offense all season. I expect the Raiders to be lucky to score 11 points. That means the Broncos only have to score 13 points to cover. I am taking the Broncos.
Denver (2-0)	-1	36.5	18.75	19.5	6.5	19
Oakland (1-1)	1	36.5	17.75	16.5	17	11
I concur that the Steelers will score 21 points, it is above their season average but close to what the Bengals are allowing. On the other hand, I think the Bengals will score less than their 19 points a game they are averaging and even less than the 16.5 Vegas has them scoring. I am taking the Steelers in a very important game for them.
Pittsburgh (1-1)	-4	37	20.5	13.5	13.5	21
Cincinnati (1-1)	4	37	16.5	19	18	14
I don't think there is a team in the NFC that the Colts should be underdogs against, especially the Cardinals who lost to the 49ers.
Indianapolis (2-0)	2.5	48	22.75	20.5	17.5	24
Arizona (1-1)	-2.5	48	25.25	23.5	18.5	21
Until Jake Delhomme has a good game I am betting against him and the Panthers everytime I have the chance.
Carolina (0-2)	9	47.5	19.25	15	33	21
Dallas (1-1)	-9	47.5	28.25	32.5	27	33

Week 10 Preview

A Thursday night game means an early preview and hopefully a third strong week in a row. To add a little more details, first I am looking at the yards per attempt on offense and defense. Next, I am making a list of where each team ranks per attempt. So it gives me an idea of how good their offense and defense stacks up in the league. The following are the previews, as always no Monday Night Football preview. I have also updated the comments section, so I will be able to respond to comments quickly.

DEN @ CLE
One amazing stat is Denver is 1-6-1 ATS and I think this is a result of their inconsistent play on a week to week basis. The Broncos are averaging 24 points a game over the season but only 14 points a game over the last three. They have a top 5 rushing team but only rushed for 14 yards last week. Sure, they have had injuries but that is a big difference. Fortunately, they are facing a below average defense that is allowing 23 points a game. I expect the Broncos to score 20 points this game. The Browns have made a change at QB, but their big problem has been running the ball. If you are going to make a change at QB it is a good thing you are going against the 30th ranked passing defense. The Broncos are allowing 30 points a game. It's hard to figure out the new QB. I assume the Browns will score a little more than their 20 a game they are averaging. I expect them to score 23 points this game. Browns -3

BAL @ HOU
Another game, another change of the QB for the Texans. The Ravens offense is relying on a strong running game but they passing offense has been improving especially over the past 3 weeks, 8.3 yards an attempt. The Texans defense has improved over the last 3 weeks, but it included games against DET, CIN and MIN. They are still one of the worse defenses in the league and the worse rushing defense. I expect the Ravens to score under their 3 game average (31) but still scoring 28 points. The Texans have an above average offense and I don't think it will do any worse with Rosenfuls, in fact it might even do better. They have been averaging 28 points a game over the last 3. The Ravens have a top 3 defense and the best rush defense in the league. I expect the Texans to score 21 points this game. Ravens -7

STL @ NYJ
The Rams offense offense has returned to suckyness. The continue to have one of the worse offenses in the league. They have improved to 21 points a game over the last three. The Jets have been average on defense and allowing 20 points over the last three games. Seems pretty easy to me, I expect the Rams to score 21 points. The Rams defense is even worse than their offense. They have improved in the last three games giving up 6 points less a game but still the same amount of yards. The Jets have been increasing their yards per game but not their points. I expect the Jets to reach their season average of 26 points a game. Jets -5

BUF @ NE
The Bills have a below average offense and the main problem is a horrible running game, 3.4 yards an attempt over the last three games. The Patriots defense has improved on a point basis but not on a yard basis, still they are only allowing 311 yards a game. The problem is they have the worst pass defense in the league, its amazing they are playing as well as they are on defense. I expect the Bills to score their 23 points a game they have been averaging over the season. The Patriots have an average offense, but it has been improving, behind a top 5 running game. The Bills defense has been consistantly average, allowing 21 points a game all season and in the last three. I expect the Patriots to score the 21 points a game. Bills -2

GB @ MIN
The Packers offense has been consistant over the season and the last three games, 26 points a game. They have continued to struggle in the running game. The Vikings have a top 5 defense by yards and average. The problem is their special teams have been giving up a lot points. I expect the Packers to only score 23 points this game. The Vikings offense has been below average and the biggest problem has been their running game. They have had one good game but that was agaisnt the Bears, if you remove that they have scored 16 points a game over the last 3. This is what the Packers have been giving up the last 3 games. Packers -7

SEA @ MIA
The Seahawks offense has averaged 255 yards a game over the season and even worse only 223 yards over the last 3 games. The Dolphins have been allowing 20 points a game during the season and the last 3. I expect the Seahawks to only score 14 points this game. The Dolphins offense has also been very consistant with 21 points over the season and each game. The Seahawks defense has improved by points but not by yards. I think the Dolphins will score 21 points this game. Dolphins -7

JAC @ DET
Both of these teams have had bad seasons, in records and ATS. The Jaguars have had an average offense, 14th in total, running and passing. It is a little suprising they are only averaging 20 points a game. The problem, is they have no big play threats and its hard to consistantly put together 15 play drives to score. The Lions have the worst defense in the league allowing 27 points a game. I expect the Jaguars to be able to score that many points. The Lions offense has a new QB and it could be a guy they just signed this week. The Jaguars are allowing 20 points a game and thats what the Lions have been scoring. I expect the Lions to get their 20 points. Jaguars -7

TEN @ CHI
Even after last weeks loss ATS, the Titans are still 7-1. Before last week I would have said take the Bears, no questions asked. The problem isn't the 28 points a game they are giving up on defense. It is not the fact they struggled against the Lions. It is the fact that Grossman is probably going to be the starter. He looked pretty bad in the game in relief, with little to no accuracy. I would only take the Bears if I was getting more than 7 points. Titans -7

NO @ ATL
The Saints have a top three offense and are coming off of a bye week. Their scoring has been the result of a great season by Drew Brees. The Falcons have a below average defense and seem to have questionable opponents. The Saints have been averaging 27 points a game on offense and the Falcons have been allowing 20 a game, both numbers over a season. I see the Saints only scoring 24 points on offense. The Falcons have a top 10 offense and their passing game has been better than their running game. In fact, its suprising they have been only scoring 22 points a game. The Saints have a below average defense and a below average pass defense. I expect the Falcons to score 24 points. Falcons -0

CAR @ OAK
The Panthers are 5-0 at home and 1-2 on the road. The Raiders just cut their former pro bowl CB who they signed to an offseason $70 million dollar deal after trading a second round pick for him. Sadly, this might be addition by subtraction because Hall has been horrible all season. The Panthers have an average offense, great passing and poor rushing. The Raiders have average defense, average passing and poor rushing defense. I expect the Panthers to score the 25 a game the Raiders are giving up, but I expect S.Smith to be blanketed all game by the best CB in the NFL. The Raiders offense has been getting worse throughout the season. I think they will be lucky to score their average of the season of 14 points a game. Carolina -11

KC @ SD
This game has blood bath written all over it. The Chiefs loss a heartbreak last week to the Bucs. Their offense seems to be improving and they are scoring 20 points a game now. The Chargers defense has been giving up 24 points a game and I expect the Chiefs to score that. The Chiefs have been giving up 28 points a game and 5.4 yards a rush. The Chargers have been scoring 28 points a game with their running game struggling. I expect the Chargers to take advantage of the poor defense and score 35 points. Chargers -11

IND @ PIT
The Colts can't run the ball and the passing game has still been struggling. They are barely averaging 300 yards a game and only 21 points. They are facing the #1 defense in the Steelers. The Steelers have been allowing 14 points a game on defense. I think the Colts will be lucky to score 17 points this game on offense. The Steelers offense was struggling before the injury to Rothlesburger and now Leftwich is starting, thats a big step backwards. The Colts were allowing 25 points a game over the last 3 and thats what the Steelers were scoring. Even with Leftwich I expect the Steelers to score 21 points. Steelers -7

NYG @ PHI
I have decided I will put the Sunday night game up as a poll this week, please vote and feel free to put your thoughts in the comments. I will post my thoughts Sunday morning.

You will notice that I only have 5 bets right now. They are two games off the board that hopefully will be open to bet on Sunday. There is also the Giants game. On the other hand, the one thing we learned was betting only 6 games is a horrible idea. If I only end up with these 5 games I will only bet half the money I have.

My Line	BoDog Line	My Bet
Browns -3	Browns -3
O/U 43	46
Ravens -7	Ravens -1	Ravens
O/U 49	42
Jets -5	off the board
O/U 47	off the board
Bills -2	Bills +4	Bills
O/U 44	41.5
Packers -7	Packers +2	Packers
O/U 39	45.5
Dolphins -7	Dolphins -9
O/U 35	43	Under
Jaguars -7	Jaguars -7
O/U 47	44.5
Titans -7	Titans -3
Falcons -0	Falcons -0
O/U 48	50
Panthers -11	Panthers -9.5
O/U 39	38
Chargers -11	Chargers -15
O/U 59	47.5	Over
Steelers -7	off the board
O/U 35	off the board

Week 8 Sunday Results and MNF Preview

Finally, a good week picking games with a 17.95% weekly return. Unfortunately, it took 8 weeks. The difference was focusing on the specific rankings of running and pass defense. In the past I had a good idea of where a team ranked in yards per attempt but this week I had the actual rankings.

The Titans are 6-0 ATS and probably a great bet against them. So with a good Sunday result and feeling like a man I am going to preview the Monday Night Football game.

IND @ TEN
The Titans have the #1 ranked passing defense allowing only 5.2 yards an attempt. The Colts have only been an average passing team this season. I expect the Colts to score a little more than the 12 points the Titans have been giving up. I think the Colts will score 14 points this game. The Titans offense is powered behind a top 5 running game, 4.5 yards a game. This has been a weakness of the Colts defense, allowing 4.4 yards a game. They have improved over the last 3 weeks, but they are still allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Titans to score 21 points in this game. Titans -7

The Titans are only 3 point favorites but there is no way I am betting on them since they are 6-0 ATS, so I will pass and be happy with a good week.

(200) Baltimore Ravens -8 (-105) Sun@11:00a	Win
(211) St. Louis Rams +8 Sun@11:00a	Win
(213) Arizona Cardinals vs. (214) Carolina Panthers Over 43½ Sun@11:00a	Win
(217) Cleveland Browns +7 (-105) Sun@2:05p	Win
(221) Seattle Seahawks vs. (222) San Francisco 49ers Over 41½ Sun@2:15p	Win
(215) Washington Redskins vs. (216) Detroit Lions Under 42 Sun@11:00a	Push
(205) Buffalo Bills vs. (206) Miami Dolphins Over 42 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(209) Atlanta Falcons +9 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(227) Cincinnati Bengals +9 Sun@2:05p	Loss
Record: 5-3-1
Weekly Return: 17.95%
Cumulative Return: -92.27%

Week 2 Preview

We are done with week 1 and now on to week 2, or some people call it jump to conclusions week. My goal is to try and preview the games quickly and guess the point spread and than look at the point spread in another post to see how close, hopefully this will help determine who I am willing to bet on.

Sun, Sep 14
CHI @ CAR
I am still not sold on the Bears, even after the suprising upset of the Colts. The Bears can't expect to win games with 136 passing yards. I see Carolina having the same success they had in week one and putting up 24-26 points. I don't see the Bears team matching the same points as the Chargers (24) so I am think more in the 20 area. We're talking 4-6 points without adding the 3 for home field. Panthers -8
BUF @ JAC
What happened to the Jac running game? They only had 33 yards last week and face a Bills defense that only gave up 85 yards. The offensive line problems continue for Jac and its hard to see them increasing their 10 points a game much. I give them a generous 14 points preview. The problem is their defense didn't look that good against the Titans and the Bills are looking better offensively even if its after one week. I just don't believe in the Bills yet and would consider this a 17-14 game without thinking of home field. I know home field would make it a puch but with the offensive line problems and the bandwagon of the Bills I am thinking: Bills -3
OAK @ KC
Both teams had offensive problems in week 1. Oakland did score 14 points but all in the fourth quarter of a blowout. Kansas City at least played good defense against a team that still has a number of weapons. Kansas City is 9-1 ATS versus Oakland in the last 10 games. Their only loss coming in their last game. I assume this is a pick 'em game with KC getting 3 because of homefield. I would say to take the Raiders because they do have some talent on offense but their HC admitted he doesn't have any input on Defensive play calling, that seems like a problem. I would say take KC but they are talking about rotating 2 QBs. I will probably pass on this game unless the O/U is 40ish. KC -3
IND @ MIN
It's amazing to know one of these teams will start the season 0-2. I look at the Colts loss as a team playing their first game in 11 months with their starting QB and missing their center. The Vikings are in worse shape, they are without their stud LT for 3 more games. Dwight Freeney should have a monster game. I see the Colts scoring more than the Packers, around 28-31 points. I still see the Vikings scoring around last week's number with 21. I see more possibility in the Colts number so even with homefield advantage: Colts -7
NO @ WAS
I wish I had seen the Saints game because statistically they had huge numbers, 337 passing and 101 running. Even worse, I did get to see the Redskins game and its obvious they are still learning the west coast offense. I see the Saints scoring the same or more points against the Redskin whose defense isn't as good as TB, 26-28 points. The good news for the Redskins is that the Saints defense is not as good as the Giants. Yet, the Saints have Ed Orgeron who is a great DL coach and a crazy person according to the book Meat Market (http://www.amazon.com/Meat-Market-Smash-Mouth-Football-Recruiting/dp/1933060395). So I expect Washington to score 14-17 points. Judging that this is in Washington and using conservaitve estimates I see: Saints -6
NYG @ STL
The Rams were horrible in week one. This is one of those games that I expect the line to be ridiculous because you have the public piling on the Giants because they are the Champions. I am not completely sold on the Giants and think they are a 9 to 10 win team. Even a team as bad as the Rams have to cover a few spreads. I see the Giants as big favorites maybe: Giants -10
GB @ DET
I was really high on the Packers to start the season and they did enough in Week 1 for me to continue to believe. Their 24 points was a good showing against the Vikings and a missed FG and some questionable decision should have led to more points. The Lions played the Falcons and thats the only reason they looked decent. They lost by 13 points to the Falcons. I expect the same margin with the Packers, but take away 3 for home field. Packers -10
TEN @ CIN
Neither of these teams really excite me. The Titans have an issue with Young who is hurt and doesn't want to play football. The Bengals, well they resigned Chris Henry. The thing I see going in both of these teams favors is that they are playing a worse defense then they played in week 1. So instead of scoring a total of 27 points, I could talk myself into an O/U of 40. I will probably pass.
SF @ SEA
These teams combined to give up 57 points and only score 23. Seattle has been caught (destroyed) by the injury bug (plague) and the 49ers still suck. It was almost a close game for Seattle before the fake FG and then they fell apart. I would consider these teams about equal but give Holmgren a big advantage over Nolan. Thats 3 points right there. Plus you have the best home field advantage in football, so thats another 4 points. Seattle -7
ATL @ TB
Atlanta played Detriot, so forgive me if I don't have much faith in their numbers. I usually love Tampa Bay but it sounds like Gruden and Garcia are having some major issues and Griese has been called the starter. The offense scored a respectable 20 points on 352 of total yards. Its the defense that gace up the 438 yards and 10.5 per passing attempt. Tampa is the better team and normally I would expect a 8-9 point line. The issues with Garica, Gruden and Griese tell me to back away slowly. The only way I am playing this game is if its TB -8 or higher I'll take a chance on the money line.
MIA @ ARI
Arizona's defense did not play very well against the 49ers giving up 5.4 yards a run and 9.2 yards a pass attempt. They were the receipients of a number of turnovers. Miami is coming off a 1-15 season and played the Jets close. They had absolutely not running game this week and it will be interesting to see what they can do against Arizona. They gave up 20 points, 181 pass yards and 8.2 an attempt to Favre, they face another old QB with better WR's. I think 24 points is in the Cards (sorry one crappy pun). I think Miami could add to their total and get to 17 points. Arizona doesn't get a homefield advantage in my book so: Arizona -7
NE @ NYJ
The Jets won by 6 points over the Dolphins and the Patriots beat the Chiefs by 7 points. I think these two teams are evenly matched. They both have good defenses partly due to playing crappy teams in week 1. I think the thing no one is talking about is SpyGate. Bellichek wants to win this game and probably knock Favre out. A game that probably sees the Jets getting 3 points because its their homefield, this has money line Patriots written all over it. Jets -3
SD @ DEN
I didn't get to watch the SD loss but their defensive numbers aren't horrible. I am going with the theory that Merriman at 60% was probably a horrible idea for the team. They have been known to get no pass rush without him so it will be interesting to see what kind of pressure they can get. Denver looked good but the Raiders made them look great. If this was a week 1 game I bet the game would be even. The new Broncos stadium is not the advantage it use to be. With the ways two teams played I am expecting a bigger line for the game and a money line chance with SD. Broncos -4
BAL @ HOU
I love the Ravens, I think their defense will be a lot better because of the injuries last year. They looked unbelievable against the Bengals, who despite their problems have at least an above average offense. The Texans looked horrible and their 21 point defecit looked like a 49 point loss. I just can't imagine betting on a rookie QB on his first road game giving 5+ points. This should be a pick 'em game but I am thinking the stinker of week 1 for Houston makes it. Baltimore -2
PIT @ CLE
The Cleveland defense, never their strength, played very poorly against Super Bowl favorite Cowboys. They gave up 487 total yards, they were probably lucky it was only 28 points. Pittsburgh destroyed the Texans. Road team is 7-3-1 ATS when these two teams play and Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine. Everything lines up for Pittsburgh. They are probably 6 point favorites and if so, I would take Cleveland but not to win just giving the points: Pittsburgh -6
Mon, Sep 15
PHI @ DAL
Its to early to pick this game, that’s what Monday during the day is for.

SUMMARY:

My Line	BoDog
Panthers -8	Panthers -3
Bills -3	Bills +5.5
KC -3	KC -3.5
Colts -7	Colts -2.5
Saints -6	Saints -1
Giants -10	Giants -9
Packers -10	Packers -3
Ten/Cin 40	Ten/Cin 37
Seattle -7	Seattle -7
TB -8	TB -7
Arizona -7	Arizona -7
Jets -3	Jets -1
Broncos -4	Broncos +1
Baltimore -2	Baltimore +4.5
Pittsburgh -6	Pittsburgh -6.5