Week 17 Actual Bets

Below are the actual bets. I ended up passing on the Panthers game because the line moved from -1 to -3. There have been a few games where the line moved dramatically and I didn't notice it. So I have made a better effort to keep an eye on the actual lines before betting. I also had to pass on the 49ers game because it was off the board.

(301) Oakland Raiders +13 Sun@12:00p

(303) Detroit Lions vs. (304) Green Bay Packers Under 43 Sun@12:00p

(307) New York Giants +7 (-115) Sun@12:00p

(309) Chicago Bears +3 (-120) Sun@12:00p

(313) St. Louis Rams +14 (-105) Sun@12:00p

(315) Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-125) Sun@12:00p

(317) Jacksonville Jaguars +11 Sun@3:15p

(319) Tennessee Titans vs. (320) Indianapolis Colts Over 39 Sun@12:00p

(322) Pittsburgh Steelers -11 Sun@12:00p

(325) New England Patriots -6 Sun@12:00p

(328) Arizona Cardinals -7 (-105) Sun@3:15p

(331) Denver Broncos +8 Sun@7:15p

Week 8 Sunday Results and MNF Preview

Finally, a good week picking games with a 17.95% weekly return. Unfortunately, it took 8 weeks. The difference was focusing on the specific rankings of running and pass defense. In the past I had a good idea of where a team ranked in yards per attempt but this week I had the actual rankings.

The Titans are 6-0 ATS and probably a great bet against them. So with a good Sunday result and feeling like a man I am going to preview the Monday Night Football game.

IND @ TEN
The Titans have the #1 ranked passing defense allowing only 5.2 yards an attempt. The Colts have only been an average passing team this season. I expect the Colts to score a little more than the 12 points the Titans have been giving up. I think the Colts will score 14 points this game. The Titans offense is powered behind a top 5 running game, 4.5 yards a game. This has been a weakness of the Colts defense, allowing 4.4 yards a game. They have improved over the last 3 weeks, but they are still allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Titans to score 21 points in this game. Titans -7

The Titans are only 3 point favorites but there is no way I am betting on them since they are 6-0 ATS, so I will pass and be happy with a good week.

(200) Baltimore Ravens -8 (-105) Sun@11:00a	Win
(211) St. Louis Rams +8 Sun@11:00a	Win
(213) Arizona Cardinals vs. (214) Carolina Panthers Over 43½ Sun@11:00a	Win
(217) Cleveland Browns +7 (-105) Sun@2:05p	Win
(221) Seattle Seahawks vs. (222) San Francisco 49ers Over 41½ Sun@2:15p	Win
(215) Washington Redskins vs. (216) Detroit Lions Under 42 Sun@11:00a	Push
(205) Buffalo Bills vs. (206) Miami Dolphins Over 42 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(209) Atlanta Falcons +9 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(227) Cincinnati Bengals +9 Sun@2:05p	Loss
Record: 5-3-1
Weekly Return: 17.95%
Cumulative Return: -92.27%

Week 7 Results

Things continue to go poorly for the picks and its obvious that the current system is not working. I keep hoping that we find a random reader with enough free time to do some hard core analysis on the picks. It looks like I might have to do the dirty work myself. I think the Bears game was a perfect blue print of what I should be doing. I was actually within a point of the line but I thought the Bears were playing better than their stats showed and they got the breaks for the win. It seems simple but I need to put more emphasis on how the teams are actually playing and not 100% on the stats. The other change is to grab some lines earlier in the week instead of later. Sure you might get burned by the occasional injury but I can't tell you the number of times a line has opened further away from my guess only to gradually get closer. If you look at the number of games I loss this week a number of them where under 2 points. On to the disappointing results:

(411) Baltimore Ravens vs. (412) Miami Dolphins Over 36½ Sun@11:00a	Win
(416) Chicago Bears -3 (-130) Sun@11:00a	Win
(425) Cleveland Browns +7½ (-115) Sun@2:15p	Win
(427) Indianapolis Colts -2½ Sun@2:15p	Loss
(406) Kansas City Chiefs +9½ (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(410) Cincinnati Bengals +10 (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(417) New Orleans Saints +3 (-120) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(419) San Francisco 49ers +11 (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(423) New York Jets -3½ (+105) Sun@2:15p	Loss

Record: 3-6
Weekly Return: -38.2%
Cumulative Return: -93.45%