Week 4 Review

I have never been in a train wreck and when I was in a car crash I was very young, so I don't really remember the pain. Unfortunately, after last week's games I can relate to the pain and the slow motion feeling you have as watch and can't change the outcome. To quote Victor Niederhoffer "My checkers teacher said even a bad system is better than no system at all." That is what I tell myself to feel better. As always I will go over the games I lost, all 8 of them and hopefully figure out a flaw or two in the plan.

(215) Seattle Seahawks +10½ (-115) Sun@11:00a

I had the Seahawks predicted score only one point away. The problem is that I missed on the Colts. The problem is that I let the Jaguars game influence my offensive decision. The Colts had scored 27 and 31 the two weeks beforehand. If I had remembered that the Jaguars always play the Colts closer I would have predicted around 28 points and probably picked the Colts. Hopefully this will be corrrected by reviewing teams schedules before picking.

(211) Detroit Lions +10 (-115) Sun@11:00a

The Lions looked like the better team in the first half and it looked like the Bears would struggle for a win. Than Knox returns the second half kick for a touchdown. Than Stafford really starts falling apart, watching the game it was amazing how many open players he missed. If Stafford hits on just a few of these plays the Lions easily cover. Nothing to learn from this game, the breaks just went the Lions way.

(205) Baltimore Ravens vs. (206) New England Patriots Under 45 Sun@11:00a

This loss was very close, the teams only combined for 48 points. Another bad break, Brady fumbles in the end zone and Edwards recovers for a TD. If that play doesn't happen it doesn't give the Ravens such an easy score. This is another loss I can handle, just need a little better red zone defense from either of the teams.

Versteeg is having a great game tonight against the Red Wings

(214) Washington Redskins -7½ Sun@11:00a

Another QB fumble only this time at the beginning of the game. The recovery game Tampa Bay the ball in the red zone and they were able to score a TD. Still, the big mistake was thinking the Redskins would score closer to the Tampa Bay defensive average of 30 than their average of 13. The Redskins are just horrible and I have to keep that in mind going forward. Certain teams have such a poor offense they just aren't going to score a lot of points: Rams, Raiders, Chiefs and Redskins. So this was just a poor bet.

Nebraska needs to give Helu the ball, just run him until he is tired, instead of never giving him the ball. I don't understand, you think they would learn from the Virginia Tech game.

(219) Buffalo Bills -1½ Sun@2:05p

This was an interesting game, the Dolphins had looked horrible all season. I saw Henne play the week before and he looked very bad and the Bills had shown some life. Instead the Dolphins just rammed it down the throat of the Bills. I don't know if this was a bad bet or just the Bills not showing up. It will be interesting to see how both teams play the next few weeks.

(217) New York Jets +7½ (-115) Sun@2:05p

I still think this was a great bet that just saw not one but two bounces not go my way. The Jets were about to score a TD or at least a FG when Sanchez throw an interception for a touchdown. Than Sanchez decided to fumble in the endzone for a TD. If one of these plays don't happen they cover. Finally, Sanchez throws an interception as they are driving at the end of the game for a backdoor cover.

(223) Dallas Cowboys -3 (-115) Sun@2:15p

This was probably the dumbest bet I made of the day. The Broncos have played great defense all season and I dismissed it because of the opponents. Still, the Cowboys had momentum in the game and fell apart. Remember they were up 10-0 at the start of the first quarter. Still, the Broncos are for real, they might not be a top 5 team but they are not a bottom 10 team.

(225) San Diego Chargers +7 (-135) Sun@6:20p

This game was the perfect metaphor for the week. The Chargers went down 28-0 against an offense that had struggled all season. The high flying Chargers looked horrible most of the game. Than they turned it on and made it close before once against making a few mistakes and not covering. The Chargers have a number of injuries on both sides of the ball that really impacted them. This is something to keep in mind going forward.

Weekly Record: 2-8 (20%)

Overall Record: 24-22 (52.2%)

Spread: 22-18 (55%)

Over/Under: 2-4 (33%)

Weekly Return: -60.88%

Cumulative Return: -36.64%

Week 3 Review

Another positive week, that is three in a row. This time the late games were just icing on the cake and once again I won them both and finished the week at 8-4. The Vikings and Steelers losses were both tough. The Vikings probably roll over the 49ers if they don't block the FG for a touchdown. The Steelers gave up a number of fourth down plays to Carson Palmer on his last drive for the Bengals to win. Another unsuccessful over/under and I wasn't even close. I need to keep an eye on my over/under bets because I am only 2-3 making them. I was a little worried about taking so many favorites but my favorite bets were 6-2.

(403) Jacksonville Jaguars +4 (-115) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(408) Baltimore Ravens -13½ (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(409) New York Giants -7 Sun@11:00a	WIN
(413) Green Bay Packers -7 (-105) Sun@11:00a	WIN
(419) Chicago Bears -2½ Sun@2:05p	WIN
(427) Denver Broncos -2 Sun@2:15p	WIN
(429) Indianapolis Colts +2½ Sun@6:20p	WIN
(432) Dallas Cowboys -9 (-105) Mon@6:35p	WIN
(416) Minnesota Vikings -7 (EVEN) Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(417) Atlanta Falcons +4 Sun@11:00a	LOSS
(421) New Orleans Saints vs. (422) Buffalo Bills Over 51½ Sun@2:05p	LOSS
(425) Pittsburgh Steelers -4½ (-105) Sun@2:15p	LOSS
Weekly Record: 8-4 (66.7%)
Overall Record: 22-14 (61.1%)
Spread: 20-11 (64.5%)
Over/Under: 2-3 (40%)
Weekly Return: 30.58%
Cumulative Return: 62.22%

Week 15 Preview

Unfortunately, I didn't have time to write previews for each game. You will notice a lot more statistics being published or about the same because I can't format it correctly. I spent a lot more time focusing on the last 3 games and their home and away splits. The biggest question about home and away splits are is it to small of a sample size? I wish someone had a way to weigh the points versus the defenses based on a home and away split. Last nights game was a winner with some interesting comments. The Saints didn't score their 24 points a game on the road because of a number of mistakes in the Bears territory. The Bears came closest to scoring their 27 points a game at home. Still, with decent weather both teams were able to help the cause for the over. I have also included a poll for Sunday night's game.

	Spread	O/U	Predicted	Off Avg	Def Avg	Projected
Buffalo (#26, 6-7)	9	41	16	22	21	21	Buffalo
NY Jets (#17, 8-5)	-9	41	25	27	23	24
Tampa Bay (#7, 9-4)	3	45	21	23	18	23
Atlanta (#10, 8-5)	-3	45	24	25	21	25
Seattle (#29, 2-11)	-1	42	22	18	26	24	Seattle
St Louis (#31, 2-11)	1	42	21	13	30	14
San Francisco (#25, 5-8)	7	42	18	22	25	20	San Francisco
Miami (#18, 8-5)	-7	42	24	21	20	24
San Diego (#22, 5-8)	-6	45	25	25	22	28	San Diego
Kansas City (#30, 2-11)	6	45	20	18	28	17
Washington (#15, 7-6)	-7	37	22	17	19	17
Cincinnati (#27, 1-11-1)	7	37	15	12	27	14	Cincinnati
Tennessee (#1, 12-1)	-3	45	24	26	14	21
Houston (#19, 6-7)	3	45	21	24	26	20	Under
Green Bay (#20, 5-8)	-1	46	23	27	25	28
Jacksonville (#24, 4-9)	1	46	22	19	23	24	Over
Detroit (#32, 0-13)	17	45	14	17	32	14
Indianapolis (#6, 9-4)	-17	45	31	23	20	30
Minnesota (#9, 8-5)	3	47	22	24	21	24
Arizona (#14, 8-5)	-3	47	25	29	25	28	Over
Pittsburgh (#4, 10-3)	3	34	16	22	14	20	Pittsburgh
Baltimore (#3, 9-4)	-3	34	19	24	15	21
Denver (#21, 8-5)	9	48	20	24	26	21
Carolina (#5, 10-3)	-9	48	29	25	20	28
New England (#16, 8-5)	-7	39	23	23	21	24	Patriots
Oakland (#28, 3-10)	7	39	16	14	23	14
NY Giants (#2, 11-2)	3	45	21	28	17
Dallas (#11, 8-5)	-3	45	24	24	22

Week 14 Thursday Night Preview

Raiders at Chargers - Dec 04, 8:15 pm
If I had told you at the beginning of the season that these teams would combined for 7 wins at this point of the season, I am guessing you would have said the Chargers would have all seven wins. The Raiders only have one less win than the Chargers and hopefully Norv Turner will be put to sleep. The Raiders are really really bad on offense and the Chargers are just really bad on defense. With the poor defense the Raiders should score 17 points this game. The Chargers have a top 10 offense, a top 2 passing game and one of the worse run games in the league. The Raiders have an average defense and one of the worse run defenses in the league. During the offseason I hope to come up with a number of rules that I have learned. One thing I wish I knew was if a bad part of an offense could take advantage of a bad part of the defense. I say with LT (even hurt) and Sproles the Chargers are able to run. I see them putting up 28 points. Still this is pretty close to the spread and its quite possible that the Chargers have given up to make sure Turner does get fired. I feel most comfortable taking the over.
Teams	Open	Over/Under	Projected	Off	Def	Predicted	Pick
Raiders	10	41.5	15.75	14.3	22.1	17	Over
Chargers	-10	41.5	25.75	24.2	22.8	28