| (399) Houston Texans +190 Sun@12:00p |
| (401) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (402) Cincinnati Bengals Over 39½ Sun@12:00p |
| (405) Baltimore Ravens +2 (-105) Sun@12:00p |
| (407) New York Jets vs. (408) Buffalo Bills Over 42 Sun@12:00p |
| (413) Green Bay Packers +4½ (-115) Sun@12:00p |
| (415) Miami Dolphins +3½ (-105) Sun@3:05p |
| (417) Atlanta Falcons -3 (EVEN) Sun@3:15p |
| (421) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (422) Seattle Seahawks Over 43 Sun@3:15p |
| (423) New England Patriots +6½ Sun@7:15p |
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Week 9 Actual Bets
Below are the actual bets made for week 9. I did bet on the money line with the Texans, a team I really think could beat the Vikings. I had a hard time trying to decide on the Patriots game, I could have bought an extra 1/2th point but you are than paying -125. I decided it wasn't worth it, so I am only getting 6.5 points.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Week 9 Preview
I completely missed the Tampa Bay versus Kansas City game. Rather than rushing the summary and making a panic pick I have gone one better, I have posted a poll to the right. Please pick who you would pick and feel free to list the reasons in the comments. Below are my predicted lines, compared to the BoDog lines and finally my picks. As always, I will post my actual bets over the weekend when I make them.
GB @ TEN
The Packers have an above average passing game with 7.1 yards an attempt. The Titans have a very good defense, the best passing defense in the league (5.2). I expect the Packers to score a little more than the 14 a game the Titans are giving up but not much more, I would give the Packers 16. The Titans have another average offense but their strength is running the ball, 4.3 yards an attempt. The Packers actually have a good defense but a horrible run defense, 4.9 yards an attempt. I expect the Titans to score the 23 a game the Packers are giving up. Of course, I am betting against the Titans because of their ATS record and since no one told me it was a bad idea. Titans -7
ARZ @ STL
The Cardinals have a top 5 passing offense but a pretty bad running game. The Rams have a horrible defense but have improved over the last 3 games only giving up 19 points a game. The Rams have been better at pass defense than run defense. I expect the Cardinals to score the 25 a game they score on the road. The Rams have been scoring 23 points a game over the last 3. Thats equal to what the Cardinals are giving up over the last 3, aided by a horrible pass defense. I expect the Rams to score 23. Cardinals -2
HOU @ MIN
The Texans are a hot team, scoring 31 points a game. The Vikings defense has been giving up a lot of points but their special teams have. The Vikings actually have a very good defense. I expect the Vikings to have their special teams problems solved and the Texans to only score 21 points. The Texans defense has improved over the last 3 games, only allowing 18 points a game. The Vikings offense, carried by a good running game is averaging 22 points a game. I expect the Vikings to score that number. Vikings -1
BAL @ CLE
The Ravnes have an average offense, based on a top 5 rushing game (143 game). The Browns have had trouble against the run and the pass on defense. I expect the Ravens to score the points they have been averaging and the same the Browns are allowing, 19 points. The Ravens have the #2 defense in the league and the top running defense. The Browns are just bad on offense and just a little bit better at running, the Ravens strength. I expect the Browns to score less then the Ravens are giving up (15.7) and only score 14 points. Ravens -5
JAC @ CIN
The Jaguars have an average offense, with the passing game a little bit better than the running game. The Bengals have a bad defense and a horrible pass defense. The Jaguars are averaging 20 points a game all year and over the last 3. I expect them to score 24 points against the Bengals defense. The Bengals have the second to worse offense in the league and can't pass or run the ball well. The Jaguars defense has also been pretty bad because of a number of injuries. The Bengals are averaging 10 on offense and the Jaguars 22 on defense. I will split the difference and give the Bengals 16 points. Jaguars -8
DET @ CHI
The Lions are the 5th worse offense, passing and running, across the board. The Bears have a top 10 defense. The Lions are averaging 16 points a game and I think they would be lucky to score this against the Bears. The Bears have been giving up 23 points a game over the last 3 due to all the injuries. I will give Lions 17 points this game. The Bears have an average offense but have been improving especially passing. They have been averaging 34 points a game on offense and 8.1 yards a passing attempt over the last 3. The Lions have only been allowing 21 points a game but 8.9 on a passing attempt. Thats not a good sign for them, but the Bears have been scoring on special teams and on defense. I expect them to only score 28 points. Bears -11
NYJ @ BUF
The Jets have a below average offense and the problem is passing the ball. They have actually been running the ball well, 4.6 yards an attempt. The Bills have an average defense but they have trouble stopping the run. The Jets are averaing 22 points a game on offense over the last 3 and the Bills are allowing 26 points a game over the last 3. I see the Jets running the ball well and scoring the 26 the Bills are allowing. The Bills have an average offense, on both the running passing part. The Jets also have an average defense, on both running and the passing part. I expect the Bills to score the 24 points a game they are averaging over the season. Jets -2
MIA @ DEN
The Dolphins have the second best offense in the league behind the second best passing offense, 8.0 yards an attempt. Even scarier they have improved to 9.6 yards an attempt over the last 3 games. Its surprising they are only scoring 22 points a game. The Broncos have a horrible defense and a horrible pass defense and a bad rush defense. I expect the Dolphins to score the 28 a game the Broncos are giving up. The Broncos have a good offense and a very good running game, 4.6 an attempt. The Dolphins have a good defense and a very good rushing defense, 3.7 yards an attempt. I expect the Broncos to score the 24 points a game the Dolphins have been giving up. Dolphins -4
PHI @ SEA
The Eagles have a top offense behind a top running and passing game. They are averaging 28 points a game over the season and the last 3 games. The Seahawks have a bad defense but a decent running defense. The Seahawks have been giving up 27 points a game on defense. I think its very reasonable to expect the Eagles to score 28 points on offense. The Seahawks offense is pretty bad and shocking that they can score 20 points a game. The Eagles have a good defense but are allowing 20 points a game. I think the Eagles problems are based on turnovers not going their way. I think the Seahawks will score 17 points this game, but I will give them their 3 points for home field. Eagles -7
ATL @ OAK
The Falcons have a top offense because of their running game, 4.8 yards an attempt. The Raiders have a bad defense and a horrible run defense, 4.5 yards an attempt. With this poor run defense I expect the Falcons to score the 25 points a game the Raiders are giving up. The Raiders have an ugly offense with nothing going well. Its amazing they are averaging 16 points a game. The Falcons defense has not been very good also, they are allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Raiders to get close to this number, giving them 20 points a game. Falcons -5
DAL @ NYG
I am passing on this game because of the Brad Johnson issue, the Cowboys looked very bad with him and it could get really ugly against the Giants. I expect the Giants to be a double digit favorite. Giants -10
NE @ IND
The Patriots have a poor offense but the #10 rushing game, behind 4.2 yards a game. The Colts have an average defense but a poor rushing defense, 4.2 yards a game. I expect the Patriots to score the 24 points a game they have been averaging over their last 3. The Colts have a decent offense but not the strength people thought they would be. The Patriots defense has been poor behind a horrible pass defense. This will probably be a problem for the Patriots. I expect the Colts to score their 22 points a game. With this being a big game for the Colts in their stadium I will give them 3 for home field. Colts -1
GB @ TEN
The Packers have an above average passing game with 7.1 yards an attempt. The Titans have a very good defense, the best passing defense in the league (5.2). I expect the Packers to score a little more than the 14 a game the Titans are giving up but not much more, I would give the Packers 16. The Titans have another average offense but their strength is running the ball, 4.3 yards an attempt. The Packers actually have a good defense but a horrible run defense, 4.9 yards an attempt. I expect the Titans to score the 23 a game the Packers are giving up. Of course, I am betting against the Titans because of their ATS record and since no one told me it was a bad idea. Titans -7
ARZ @ STL
The Cardinals have a top 5 passing offense but a pretty bad running game. The Rams have a horrible defense but have improved over the last 3 games only giving up 19 points a game. The Rams have been better at pass defense than run defense. I expect the Cardinals to score the 25 a game they score on the road. The Rams have been scoring 23 points a game over the last 3. Thats equal to what the Cardinals are giving up over the last 3, aided by a horrible pass defense. I expect the Rams to score 23. Cardinals -2
HOU @ MIN
The Texans are a hot team, scoring 31 points a game. The Vikings defense has been giving up a lot of points but their special teams have. The Vikings actually have a very good defense. I expect the Vikings to have their special teams problems solved and the Texans to only score 21 points. The Texans defense has improved over the last 3 games, only allowing 18 points a game. The Vikings offense, carried by a good running game is averaging 22 points a game. I expect the Vikings to score that number. Vikings -1
BAL @ CLE
The Ravnes have an average offense, based on a top 5 rushing game (143 game). The Browns have had trouble against the run and the pass on defense. I expect the Ravens to score the points they have been averaging and the same the Browns are allowing, 19 points. The Ravens have the #2 defense in the league and the top running defense. The Browns are just bad on offense and just a little bit better at running, the Ravens strength. I expect the Browns to score less then the Ravens are giving up (15.7) and only score 14 points. Ravens -5
JAC @ CIN
The Jaguars have an average offense, with the passing game a little bit better than the running game. The Bengals have a bad defense and a horrible pass defense. The Jaguars are averaging 20 points a game all year and over the last 3. I expect them to score 24 points against the Bengals defense. The Bengals have the second to worse offense in the league and can't pass or run the ball well. The Jaguars defense has also been pretty bad because of a number of injuries. The Bengals are averaging 10 on offense and the Jaguars 22 on defense. I will split the difference and give the Bengals 16 points. Jaguars -8
DET @ CHI
The Lions are the 5th worse offense, passing and running, across the board. The Bears have a top 10 defense. The Lions are averaging 16 points a game and I think they would be lucky to score this against the Bears. The Bears have been giving up 23 points a game over the last 3 due to all the injuries. I will give Lions 17 points this game. The Bears have an average offense but have been improving especially passing. They have been averaging 34 points a game on offense and 8.1 yards a passing attempt over the last 3. The Lions have only been allowing 21 points a game but 8.9 on a passing attempt. Thats not a good sign for them, but the Bears have been scoring on special teams and on defense. I expect them to only score 28 points. Bears -11
NYJ @ BUF
The Jets have a below average offense and the problem is passing the ball. They have actually been running the ball well, 4.6 yards an attempt. The Bills have an average defense but they have trouble stopping the run. The Jets are averaing 22 points a game on offense over the last 3 and the Bills are allowing 26 points a game over the last 3. I see the Jets running the ball well and scoring the 26 the Bills are allowing. The Bills have an average offense, on both the running passing part. The Jets also have an average defense, on both running and the passing part. I expect the Bills to score the 24 points a game they are averaging over the season. Jets -2
MIA @ DEN
The Dolphins have the second best offense in the league behind the second best passing offense, 8.0 yards an attempt. Even scarier they have improved to 9.6 yards an attempt over the last 3 games. Its surprising they are only scoring 22 points a game. The Broncos have a horrible defense and a horrible pass defense and a bad rush defense. I expect the Dolphins to score the 28 a game the Broncos are giving up. The Broncos have a good offense and a very good running game, 4.6 an attempt. The Dolphins have a good defense and a very good rushing defense, 3.7 yards an attempt. I expect the Broncos to score the 24 points a game the Dolphins have been giving up. Dolphins -4
PHI @ SEA
The Eagles have a top offense behind a top running and passing game. They are averaging 28 points a game over the season and the last 3 games. The Seahawks have a bad defense but a decent running defense. The Seahawks have been giving up 27 points a game on defense. I think its very reasonable to expect the Eagles to score 28 points on offense. The Seahawks offense is pretty bad and shocking that they can score 20 points a game. The Eagles have a good defense but are allowing 20 points a game. I think the Eagles problems are based on turnovers not going their way. I think the Seahawks will score 17 points this game, but I will give them their 3 points for home field. Eagles -7
ATL @ OAK
The Falcons have a top offense because of their running game, 4.8 yards an attempt. The Raiders have a bad defense and a horrible run defense, 4.5 yards an attempt. With this poor run defense I expect the Falcons to score the 25 points a game the Raiders are giving up. The Raiders have an ugly offense with nothing going well. Its amazing they are averaging 16 points a game. The Falcons defense has not been very good also, they are allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Raiders to get close to this number, giving them 20 points a game. Falcons -5
DAL @ NYG
I am passing on this game because of the Brad Johnson issue, the Cowboys looked very bad with him and it could get really ugly against the Giants. I expect the Giants to be a double digit favorite. Giants -10
NE @ IND
The Patriots have a poor offense but the #10 rushing game, behind 4.2 yards a game. The Colts have an average defense but a poor rushing defense, 4.2 yards a game. I expect the Patriots to score the 24 points a game they have been averaging over their last 3. The Colts have a decent offense but not the strength people thought they would be. The Patriots defense has been poor behind a horrible pass defense. This will probably be a problem for the Patriots. I expect the Colts to score their 22 points a game. With this being a big game for the Colts in their stadium I will give them 3 for home field. Colts -1
| My Line | BoDog Line | My Bet |
| Titans -7 | Titans -4.5 | Packers |
| O/U 39 | 41 | |
| Cardinals -2 | Cardinals -3 | |
| O/U 48 | 48.5 | |
| Vikings -1 | Vikings -4.5 | Texans |
| O/U 43 | 47 | |
| Ravens -5 | Browns -1.5 | Ravens |
| O/U 33 | 36.5 | |
| Jaguars -8 | Jaguars -8 | |
| O/U 46 | 40 | Over |
| Bears -11 | Bears -13 | |
| O/U 45 | 43 | |
| Jets -2 | Bills -5 | |
| O/U 50 | 41 | Over |
| Dolphins -4 | Dolphins -3.5 | Dolphins |
| O/U 52 | 50 | |
| Eagles -7 | Eagles -7 | |
| O/U 48 | 42.5 | Over |
| Falcons -5 | Falcons -3 | Falcons |
| O/U 45 | 41 | |
| Giants -10 | Giants -9 | |
| Colts -1 | Colts -6 | Patriots |
| O/U 45 | 44 |
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Mid Season Overall Review
I am going through a review of the bets made over the past 8 weeks and wanted to post some information. As you can see I have had the most success in O/U and I will continue to bet these games when I see a big discrepancy between my estimates and the line. The Ravens have played better than most predictions and I have been a big fan so there is no shock that I am doing well on their games. I can't easily explain the success with Browns and Vikings picks. The Dolphins are another team playing better than early season predictions. Obviously, a major problem are Colts, Giants, Raiders and Titan games (3-17). With the Titans that means I have bet against them 4 times since they are undefeated ATS. The Colts have not lived up to expectations. I guess the question is, should I just stop betting on all 4 of these teams? As I have said in past posts I am going to be against the Titans because they have done so well ATS and need to revert to a mean (even if its 3-5 over the next 8 weeks ATS). I am open to thought on what to do with the three other teams.
| Win | Loss | Push | |
| Overall Record | 33 | 43 | 4 |
| Over/Under | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| ATS | 28 | 39 | 3 |
| Ravens Total | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Browns Total | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Vikings Total | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Dolphins Total | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Colts Total | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Giants Total | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Raiders Total | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Titans Total | 0 | 4 | 1 |
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Week 8 Sunday Results and MNF Preview
Finally, a good week picking games with a 17.95% weekly return. Unfortunately, it took 8 weeks. The difference was focusing on the specific rankings of running and pass defense. In the past I had a good idea of where a team ranked in yards per attempt but this week I had the actual rankings.
The Titans are 6-0 ATS and probably a great bet against them. So with a good Sunday result and feeling like a man I am going to preview the Monday Night Football game.
IND @ TEN
The Titans have the #1 ranked passing defense allowing only 5.2 yards an attempt. The Colts have only been an average passing team this season. I expect the Colts to score a little more than the 12 points the Titans have been giving up. I think the Colts will score 14 points this game. The Titans offense is powered behind a top 5 running game, 4.5 yards a game. This has been a weakness of the Colts defense, allowing 4.4 yards a game. They have improved over the last 3 weeks, but they are still allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Titans to score 21 points in this game. Titans -7
The Titans are only 3 point favorites but there is no way I am betting on them since they are 6-0 ATS, so I will pass and be happy with a good week.
The Titans are 6-0 ATS and probably a great bet against them. So with a good Sunday result and feeling like a man I am going to preview the Monday Night Football game.
IND @ TEN
The Titans have the #1 ranked passing defense allowing only 5.2 yards an attempt. The Colts have only been an average passing team this season. I expect the Colts to score a little more than the 12 points the Titans have been giving up. I think the Colts will score 14 points this game. The Titans offense is powered behind a top 5 running game, 4.5 yards a game. This has been a weakness of the Colts defense, allowing 4.4 yards a game. They have improved over the last 3 weeks, but they are still allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Titans to score 21 points in this game. Titans -7
The Titans are only 3 point favorites but there is no way I am betting on them since they are 6-0 ATS, so I will pass and be happy with a good week.
| (200) Baltimore Ravens -8 (-105) Sun@11:00a | Win |
| (211) St. Louis Rams +8 Sun@11:00a | Win |
| (213) Arizona Cardinals vs. (214) Carolina Panthers Over 43½ Sun@11:00a | Win |
| (217) Cleveland Browns +7 (-105) Sun@2:05p | Win |
| (221) Seattle Seahawks vs. (222) San Francisco 49ers Over 41½ Sun@2:15p | Win |
| (215) Washington Redskins vs. (216) Detroit Lions Under 42 Sun@11:00a | Push |
| (205) Buffalo Bills vs. (206) Miami Dolphins Over 42 Sun@11:00a | Loss |
| (209) Atlanta Falcons +9 Sun@11:00a | Loss |
| (227) Cincinnati Bengals +9 Sun@2:05p | Loss |
| Record: 5-3-1 | |
| Weekly Return: 17.95% | |
| Cumulative Return: -92.27% | |
Week 8 Actual Bets
| (200) Baltimore Ravens -8 (-105) Sun@11:00a |
| (205) Buffalo Bills vs. (206) Miami Dolphins Over 42 Sun@11:00a |
| (209) Atlanta Falcons +9 Sun@11:00a |
| (211) St. Louis Rams +8 Sun@11:00a |
| (213) Arizona Cardinals vs. (214) Carolina Panthers Over 43½ Sun@11:00a |
| (215) Washington Redskins vs. (216) Detroit Lions Under 42 Sun@11:00a |
| (217) Cleveland Browns +7 (-105) Sun@2:05p |
| (221) Seattle Seahawks vs. (222) San Francisco 49ers Over 41½ Sun@2:15p |
| (227) Cincinnati Bengals +9 Sun@2:05p |
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Week 8 Preview
The following is the week 8 preview. If I don't have a good week, I am going to completely change the ways I look at the games next week. The new way would be working backwards. No picture this week, but the good news is the preview is up before Friday. I will post my actual bets either Saturday or Sunday.
| Week 8 | ||
| Sun, Oct 26 | ||
| OAK @ BAL | ||
| The Raiders offense has actually decreased in productivity as the season has gone on. Their last 3 games have been horrible. The injury to McFadden has played a part but they are only averaging 12 points a game over the last 3. The Ravens pass defense has started to slip but they are still the best. I expect the Raiders to score 10 points. The Ravens continue to have a poor offense, not being able to run or pass very well. They are only averaging 13 points a game on offense. The Raiders defense has been very bad and they can't stop the run. I expect the Ravens to score close to the Raiders average of 25 points game, I will give them 24. Ravens -10 | ||
| ARI @ CAR | ||
| This match up is an offense scoring 32 points a game against a defense only giving up 11 points. The Panthers are also very strong at stoppping the pass. I expect the Panthers to give up the points they gave up against SD & TB, 25 points. The Panthers offense has been powered behind their passing a weakness of the Cardinals defense. The Cardinals are allowing 32 points a game on defense. I expect the Panthers to score 28 points. Panthers -3 | ||
| TB @ DAL | ||
| Tampa Bay has a very good offense behind a 4.5 yard attempt run for the season but only 3.9 the last 3 games. Their passing offense has improved over the season, due to Garcia now playing. The Cowboys have a ton of injuries and their defense has been bad all year. I expect Tampa Bay to score the 28 a game Dallas is giving up. Who knows who will play for the Cowboys at QB. Tampa Bay has a great defense as usual. I expect Dalls to only score 21 points on offense, lower than their average. I will also give them the 3 points for home field. Tampa Bay -4 | ||
| WAS @ DET | ||
| The Redskins have a great offense when it comes to yards but not when it comes to scoring, only 20 a game. Bring on the Lions defense and their 38 points a game over the last 3. I think the Redskins will score a few more points than their average but I am only giving them 24. The Redskins defense has been very good and its almost amaazing they are giving up 16 points a game. The Lions are only averaging 13 points a game on offense and that will be a stretch against the Redskins, put them down for 10. I will give the Lions 3 points for home field because they have to score some points even by mistake. Redskins -11 | ||
| BUF @ MIA | ||
| The Bills offense has been efficient behind a 7.7 yard attempt on pass plays. This has been the weakness of the Dolphins. I expect the Bills to match their 25 points a game. The Dolphins have brought the wildcat to the NFL but they actually have scored less points in the last 3 games. The Bills have hard a hard time stopping the run and the Dolphins have been running well. I expect the Dolphins to score 22 points. I will also give them 3 points for the home game. Dolphins 0 | ||
| STL @ NE | ||
| The Patriots defense is giving up a lot of yards but not very many points, less than 20 a game. The Rams offense has improved over the last 3 games. The problems with the Rams is they are a good running team and that’s the strength of the Patriots. I expect the Rams to score the Patriots 19 points a game. The Rams are giving up 100 yards less a game over the last 3. They are still giving up 21 points a game right at the Patriots average. I expect the Patriots to run against the poor run defense of the Rams. I would give the Patriots 3 points for home field. Patriots -5 | ||
| SD @ NO | ||
| The Chargers are averaging 27 points a game but only 18 over the last 3. The passing game has taken a hit with the Chambers injury and LT injury. I expect the Chargers to score the 21 points a game the Saints are giving up. The Saints offense is also slowing down thanks to injuries and the Chargers defense is improving. Unfortuantely, this game is being played overseas and I have no idea how either team will react, so pass. | ||
| KC @ NYJ | ||
| The Chiefs have the worst offense in the NFL and they are sitting LJ for another week.The Jets have an average defense that is very good against the run. I expect the Chiefs to score their 14 points a game. The Jets might have Favre but the best part of their offense is their running game. The worst part of the Chiefs defense is their running game, almost 5.7 yards an attempt. I expect the Jets to score the 28 a game the Chiefs are giving up. Jets -14 | ||
| ATL @ PHI | ||
| Andy Reid has never loss a game after the bye week. The Falcons offense has been very good behind a strong running and passing game. They are averaging 23 points a game, the Eagles are giving up the same over the last 3 weeks. So I expect the Falcons to score 24. The Eagles continue to have a very good offense behind passing and crappy running. They have been averaging 28 points a game. The Falcons haven't been giving up a lot of points compared to the yards, 390 over the last 3. I expect the Eagles to get their 28 a game. Eagles -4 | ||
| CLE @ JAC | ||
| The Browns continue to have problems on offense but they have improved over the last 3 games, now averaging 22 points a game. The Jaguars are giving up 23 points a game but allowing 4.7 yards a run. I expect the Browns to only score 21 points. The Jaguars have been average on offense and the Browns have been average on defense. Even though they are only allowing 18 points a game on defense they are allowing 4.8 a rush. I expect the Jaguars to score their average of 21. Jaguars 0 | ||
| CIN @ HOU | ||
| The Bengals have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and the Texans have one of the worse defenses. I would add the 14 points a game the Bengals are scoring with the 30 a game the Texans are allowing and divide by two. That would give the Bengals 22 points. The Texans are average on offense and the Bengals are also average. The Texans are running for 4.4 yards an attempt exactly what the Bengals are giving up. So expect a big ground game from the Texans and they should score their average of 28 over the last 3 games. Texans -6 | ||
| NYG @ PIT | ||
| This game pits the top offense of the Giants against a very good defense of the Steelers. The difference is almost 200 yards between the offense and defense. This makes the game very tough to call because you have to pick who is going to win. I expect this game to be close to a pick 'em and would only bet if one team was favored by more than 5. | ||
| SEA @ SF | ||
| The Seahawks are averaging 4.8 yards a rush on offense but under 100 yards a game, I would blame their very poor defense. I expect the Seahawks to score close to the 28 points a game the 49ers are giving up, they should have a chance to run more this game. The 49ers are also running beftter than most teams but the Seahawks have a good run defense and a very poor pass defense. I expect the 49ers to score the 30 points a game the Seahawks are giving up over the last 3. 49ers -2 | ||
| Mon, Oct 27 | ||
| IND @ TEN | ||
| My Line | BoDog | My Bet |
| Ravens -10 | Ravens -8 | Ravens |
| O/U 34 | O/U 36 | |
| Panthers -3 | Panthers -4 | |
| O/U 53 | O/U 43 | Over |
| Tampa Bay -4 | ||
| O/U 49 | ||
| Redskins -11 | Redskins -8 | |
| O/U 34 | O/U 42 | Under |
| Dolphins 0 | Dolphins +2 | |
| O/U 47 | O/U 42 | Over |
| Patriots -5 | Patriots -7.5 | Rams |
| O/U 40 | O/U 42.5 | |
| Jets -14 | Jets -14 | |
| O/U 42 | O/U 39 | |
| Eagles -4 | Eagles -9 | Falcons |
| O/U 52 | O/U 45.5 | |
| Jaguars 0 | Jaguars -7 | Browns |
| O/U 42 | O/U 42 | |
| Texans -6 | Texans -9 | Bengals |
| O/U 50 | O/U 45.5 | |
| 49ers -2 | 49ers -5 | |
| O/U 58 | O/U 41 | Over |
Monday, October 20, 2008
Week 7 Results
Things continue to go poorly for the picks and its obvious that the current system is not working. I keep hoping that we find a random reader with enough free time to do some hard core analysis on the picks. It looks like I might have to do the dirty work myself. I think the Bears game was a perfect blue print of what I should be doing. I was actually within a point of the line but I thought the Bears were playing better than their stats showed and they got the breaks for the win. It seems simple but I need to put more emphasis on how the teams are actually playing and not 100% on the stats. The other change is to grab some lines earlier in the week instead of later. Sure you might get burned by the occasional injury but I can't tell you the number of times a line has opened further away from my guess only to gradually get closer. If you look at the number of games I loss this week a number of them where under 2 points. On to the disappointing results:
Record: 3-6
Weekly Return: -38.2%
Cumulative Return: -93.45%
| (411) Baltimore Ravens vs. (412) Miami Dolphins Over 36½ Sun@11:00a | Win |
| (416) Chicago Bears -3 (-130) Sun@11:00a | Win |
| (425) Cleveland Browns +7½ (-115) Sun@2:15p | Win |
| (427) Indianapolis Colts -2½ Sun@2:15p | Loss |
| (406) Kansas City Chiefs +9½ (-115) Sun@11:00a | Loss |
| (410) Cincinnati Bengals +10 (-115) Sun@11:00a | Loss |
| (417) New Orleans Saints +3 (-120) Sun@11:00a | Loss |
| (419) San Francisco 49ers +11 (-115) Sun@11:00a | Loss |
| (423) New York Jets -3½ (+105) Sun@2:15p | Loss |
Record: 3-6
Weekly Return: -38.2%
Cumulative Return: -93.45%
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