| (407) Houston Texans +8½ Sun@12:00p |
| (413) Philadelphia Eagles -9½ (-105) Sun@12:00p |
| (415) New Orleans Saints vs. (416) Kansas City Chiefs Over 50½ Sun@12:00p |
| (418) Carolina Panthers -14½ (-105) Sun@12:00p |
| (420) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4½ (-105) Sun@12:00p |
| (410) Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115) Sun@3:15p |
| (423) Arizona Cardinals -3 (-105) Sun@3:05p |
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Week 11 Actual Bets
Already 1-0 on the week, with just 7 games being bet on I only used 70% of my pot. Check out this page during the games as I am going to attempt a live blog.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Week 11 Preview
Thanks to the Jets its already been a good week, maybe I should take the 1-0 start and just quit for now. Once again we put a poll up for the Sunday night game. What follows are my predictions of the line for each game, the actual line and the bet I am going to make. Due to my past record on games where I predicted the line, I will not bet on those games. As always we do not plan on betting on the Monday Night Football game.
Phi @ Cin
The Eagles have one of the top offenses in the league behind a very good passing game, that is averaging 7.1 yards an attempt. The Eagles have been averaging 28 points a game. In fact, the only thing holding this team down looks to be poor decisions by their head coach. This going to be bad news for the Bengals who have a bad defense and a bad pass defense. They allowed 31 points a game. I expect the Eagles to put up 35 points. The Bengals offense is poor across the board, they are bad at everything. I guess that is why they are averaging 14 points a game. The Eagles have a very good defense and are allowing 20 points a game. I expect the Bengals to score 14 points. Eagles -21
Min @ TB
The Vikings have a below average offense, even with the great AP. They have been averaging 23 points a game on offense. Tampa Bay has a top five defense and they do everything very well. They have been allowing 16 points a game. I only expect the Vikings to score 14 points. The Tampa Bay offense has been as bad as the Vikings and they are having trouble at RB, no one is healthy. They have been scoring 22 points a game. The Vikings defense is top five in everything, even their pass defense has improved. They have given up 32 points a game but a lot of this is behind interceptions for touchdowns and pathetic special teams. Over the season they have allowed 24 points a game. I expect Tampa Bay to only score 21 but I will not bet on the under because at some the Vikings bad luck turns into a trend. Tampa Bay -7
Bal & NYG
The Ravens offense averages 24 points a game behind one of the top rushing offenses in the league, 4.4 yards an attempt over the last three. The Giants have given up 20 points a game, with a top 10 defense, with the pass being better than the run. I think the Ravens will score 17 points this game, it will be a big test for Flacco. The Giants offense is the top running offense in the league, with 5.2 yards an attempt. The Ravens are the top rushing defense in the league, with 3.0 yards an attempt. This is a reason why they are allowing 17 points a game. The Giants have been averaging 30 points a game. I will split the difference and give the Giants 24 points. Giants -7
Oak @ Mia
The Raiders offense has gone from horrible to death, averaging 6 points a game over the last 3. I would have to look at the records but I don't think I have bet on the Raiders much. How can you forecast a team that has been averaging 6 points a game. Miami has been scoring 24 points a game which is right at Oakland's average. Even if we give the Raiders a huge benefit of the doubt and 10 points, its a huge Miami spread. I will stay away from this game unless the line is really out of whack. Dolphins -14
NO @ KC
The Saints have a top three offense behind a very strong passing game, 8.1 yards an attempt. They are averaging 26 points a game on offense. Over the last three games, they have only averaged 21 points a game, but Reggie Bush should be back. The Chiefs are allowing 27 points a game on defense. They have a bottom 5 defense and are not very good at anything. I think the Saints will score 31 points this game. The Chiefs have one of the worse offenses in the league but it is improving over the last three games. They are averaging 23 points a game. The Saints have the second to worse pass defense in the league allowing 7.1 yards an attempt. The Saints are allowing 32 points over the last 3 games. I think the Chiefs will score 28 points this game. Saints -3
Hou @ Ind
A rematch from the miracle game earlier in the season. The Texans are averaging 23 points a game, behind a 4.3 yard an attempt per rush. The Colts have an average defense to match the average offense of the Texans. The Colts allow 22 points a game. I am going to go out on a limb and give the Texans 23 points a game. The Colts have a top 6 offense and a top 6 passing game, but its not where it use to be. I would blame this on the death of Marvin Harrison and whatever zombie is currently in his body. The Colts are averaging 21 points a game and their rushing offense is absolutely horrible. If they are going to run on a team its the worse rushing defense in the league the Texans, 4.5 yards an attempt. The Texans are allowing 28 points a game and I expect the Colts to score that. Colts -6
Chi @ GB
Unless we get confirmation that Orton is starting there is no way I am betting on this game. These teams are equal on offense and defense in points allowed, its pretty amazing. With Orton fully healthy I see this as a pick 'em with 3 points for home advantage. I am passing unless Orton is named the starter Saturday then we will go over more details. Packers -3
Det @ Car
I can't believe I was going to bet on the Lions. They were averaging 18 points a game and now Culpepper has a full week to learn the offense. The problem is the Panthers defense has only allowed 15 points a game. I think the Lions will be lucky and score 10 points. The Panthers have been averaging 25 points a game, but they are not getting a lot of total yards. The Lions have been allowing 30 points a game. I expect the Panthers who are averaging 4.3 yards an attempt to run over the Lions who are allowing 4.6 yards an attempt. I expect the Panthers to score 28 points. Panthers -18
Den @ Atl
The Broncos are only 2-6-1 ATS and the Falcons are one of the hot NFL teams. The Broncos offense has struggled the last three weeks only scoring 19 points a game instead of the 25 during the whole season. The amazing thing is they are only averaging 10 yards less a game, which means worse field position and more field goals. They still have a top 10 offense and a top 5 offense but they are very lifht at RB. The Falcons have an average defense that is very bad at stopping the run, 6.1 yards a run over the last 3. I expect the Broncos to score 24 points a game. The Falcons offense has been averaging 24 points a game. The Broncos have a horrible pass defense and that is the Falcons strength. The Broncos are allowing 32 points a game. I expect the Falcons to score 30 points. Falcons -6
Ari @ Sea
The Cardinals have the #1 offense in the NFL, let that sink in. Behind a 7.8 yards per pass attempt the Cardinals are scoring 30 points a game. The Seahawks have one of the worse defenses in the league and allow 7.3 yards per pass. Thier poor defense has allowed 26 points a game. I expect the Cardinals to score 32 points. The Seahawks offense has been poor because of a bad passing offense, I guess having no WR's would factor into this. The Cardinals have an average defense and a good run defense. The Seahawks are averaging 19 points a game and the Cardinals have been allowing 23 points. I see the Seahawks scoring 21 points this game. Due to this game being played in Seattle I will give them the 3 points for homefield. Cardinals -6
Stl @ SF
The Rams had a bried period of actually looking like an NFL team but that has passed. Their offense is now averaging 11 points a game over the last three weeks. The 49ers are allowing 31 points a game and the surprising stat is they are giving up the exact same yards the Rams are gaining. The 49ers actually have an average offense but when your offense keeps turning the ball over it becomes a big hurdle. I expect the Rams to score 17 points this game, above average because of a 49ers turnover or two. The 49ers offense is very bad because their passing offense is one of the worst in the league. Have people finally caught on to Martz's offense or is O'Sullivan/Hill the problem? The Rams defense is just bad at everything and allowing 29 points a game. The 49ers are coming off of a Monday night game so I expect them to be a little sluggish. I expect them to score 24 points this game. 49ers -7
SD @ Pit
Another game where the QB is questionable and probably a great reason to pass on the game. Or if he does play it won't be up to his usual performance. I will pass on this game, no reason to try and predict such an unknown as whether he will play and at what ability.
Ten @ Jac
As loyal readers know the Titans are now 8-1 ATS. I aruge that eventaully Vegas and gamblers will adjust these lines accordingly. Last year a few teams made it to 11-5 ATS, that would mean the Titans would go 3-4 the rest of the season. In 2006, only one team had 11 wins ATS and that was the Titans. I think they will revert towards the mean, even if the mean is 11 wins. So I will bet against them this game, no matter what the line is. I expect the Titans to be favored by a few points on this road game. Titans -3
Dal @ Was
Last week's Sunday night game, we left it to a vote. Suprisingly, 80% of you took the Giants and the 3 points. It turned out to be a good bet. I want to see if my readers are as smart as I think. The line I see is Cowboys getting a point, so basically a pick 'em game. If I am not as hung over as I was Sunday I will do a preview of the game and hopefully actually place my bets.
Phi @ Cin
The Eagles have one of the top offenses in the league behind a very good passing game, that is averaging 7.1 yards an attempt. The Eagles have been averaging 28 points a game. In fact, the only thing holding this team down looks to be poor decisions by their head coach. This going to be bad news for the Bengals who have a bad defense and a bad pass defense. They allowed 31 points a game. I expect the Eagles to put up 35 points. The Bengals offense is poor across the board, they are bad at everything. I guess that is why they are averaging 14 points a game. The Eagles have a very good defense and are allowing 20 points a game. I expect the Bengals to score 14 points. Eagles -21
Min @ TB
The Vikings have a below average offense, even with the great AP. They have been averaging 23 points a game on offense. Tampa Bay has a top five defense and they do everything very well. They have been allowing 16 points a game. I only expect the Vikings to score 14 points. The Tampa Bay offense has been as bad as the Vikings and they are having trouble at RB, no one is healthy. They have been scoring 22 points a game. The Vikings defense is top five in everything, even their pass defense has improved. They have given up 32 points a game but a lot of this is behind interceptions for touchdowns and pathetic special teams. Over the season they have allowed 24 points a game. I expect Tampa Bay to only score 21 but I will not bet on the under because at some the Vikings bad luck turns into a trend. Tampa Bay -7
Bal & NYG
The Ravens offense averages 24 points a game behind one of the top rushing offenses in the league, 4.4 yards an attempt over the last three. The Giants have given up 20 points a game, with a top 10 defense, with the pass being better than the run. I think the Ravens will score 17 points this game, it will be a big test for Flacco. The Giants offense is the top running offense in the league, with 5.2 yards an attempt. The Ravens are the top rushing defense in the league, with 3.0 yards an attempt. This is a reason why they are allowing 17 points a game. The Giants have been averaging 30 points a game. I will split the difference and give the Giants 24 points. Giants -7
Oak @ Mia
The Raiders offense has gone from horrible to death, averaging 6 points a game over the last 3. I would have to look at the records but I don't think I have bet on the Raiders much. How can you forecast a team that has been averaging 6 points a game. Miami has been scoring 24 points a game which is right at Oakland's average. Even if we give the Raiders a huge benefit of the doubt and 10 points, its a huge Miami spread. I will stay away from this game unless the line is really out of whack. Dolphins -14
NO @ KC
The Saints have a top three offense behind a very strong passing game, 8.1 yards an attempt. They are averaging 26 points a game on offense. Over the last three games, they have only averaged 21 points a game, but Reggie Bush should be back. The Chiefs are allowing 27 points a game on defense. They have a bottom 5 defense and are not very good at anything. I think the Saints will score 31 points this game. The Chiefs have one of the worse offenses in the league but it is improving over the last three games. They are averaging 23 points a game. The Saints have the second to worse pass defense in the league allowing 7.1 yards an attempt. The Saints are allowing 32 points over the last 3 games. I think the Chiefs will score 28 points this game. Saints -3
Hou @ Ind
A rematch from the miracle game earlier in the season. The Texans are averaging 23 points a game, behind a 4.3 yard an attempt per rush. The Colts have an average defense to match the average offense of the Texans. The Colts allow 22 points a game. I am going to go out on a limb and give the Texans 23 points a game. The Colts have a top 6 offense and a top 6 passing game, but its not where it use to be. I would blame this on the death of Marvin Harrison and whatever zombie is currently in his body. The Colts are averaging 21 points a game and their rushing offense is absolutely horrible. If they are going to run on a team its the worse rushing defense in the league the Texans, 4.5 yards an attempt. The Texans are allowing 28 points a game and I expect the Colts to score that. Colts -6
Chi @ GB
Unless we get confirmation that Orton is starting there is no way I am betting on this game. These teams are equal on offense and defense in points allowed, its pretty amazing. With Orton fully healthy I see this as a pick 'em with 3 points for home advantage. I am passing unless Orton is named the starter Saturday then we will go over more details. Packers -3
Det @ Car
I can't believe I was going to bet on the Lions. They were averaging 18 points a game and now Culpepper has a full week to learn the offense. The problem is the Panthers defense has only allowed 15 points a game. I think the Lions will be lucky and score 10 points. The Panthers have been averaging 25 points a game, but they are not getting a lot of total yards. The Lions have been allowing 30 points a game. I expect the Panthers who are averaging 4.3 yards an attempt to run over the Lions who are allowing 4.6 yards an attempt. I expect the Panthers to score 28 points. Panthers -18
Den @ Atl
The Broncos are only 2-6-1 ATS and the Falcons are one of the hot NFL teams. The Broncos offense has struggled the last three weeks only scoring 19 points a game instead of the 25 during the whole season. The amazing thing is they are only averaging 10 yards less a game, which means worse field position and more field goals. They still have a top 10 offense and a top 5 offense but they are very lifht at RB. The Falcons have an average defense that is very bad at stopping the run, 6.1 yards a run over the last 3. I expect the Broncos to score 24 points a game. The Falcons offense has been averaging 24 points a game. The Broncos have a horrible pass defense and that is the Falcons strength. The Broncos are allowing 32 points a game. I expect the Falcons to score 30 points. Falcons -6
Ari @ Sea
The Cardinals have the #1 offense in the NFL, let that sink in. Behind a 7.8 yards per pass attempt the Cardinals are scoring 30 points a game. The Seahawks have one of the worse defenses in the league and allow 7.3 yards per pass. Thier poor defense has allowed 26 points a game. I expect the Cardinals to score 32 points. The Seahawks offense has been poor because of a bad passing offense, I guess having no WR's would factor into this. The Cardinals have an average defense and a good run defense. The Seahawks are averaging 19 points a game and the Cardinals have been allowing 23 points. I see the Seahawks scoring 21 points this game. Due to this game being played in Seattle I will give them the 3 points for homefield. Cardinals -6
Stl @ SF
The Rams had a bried period of actually looking like an NFL team but that has passed. Their offense is now averaging 11 points a game over the last three weeks. The 49ers are allowing 31 points a game and the surprising stat is they are giving up the exact same yards the Rams are gaining. The 49ers actually have an average offense but when your offense keeps turning the ball over it becomes a big hurdle. I expect the Rams to score 17 points this game, above average because of a 49ers turnover or two. The 49ers offense is very bad because their passing offense is one of the worst in the league. Have people finally caught on to Martz's offense or is O'Sullivan/Hill the problem? The Rams defense is just bad at everything and allowing 29 points a game. The 49ers are coming off of a Monday night game so I expect them to be a little sluggish. I expect them to score 24 points this game. 49ers -7
SD @ Pit
Another game where the QB is questionable and probably a great reason to pass on the game. Or if he does play it won't be up to his usual performance. I will pass on this game, no reason to try and predict such an unknown as whether he will play and at what ability.
Ten @ Jac
As loyal readers know the Titans are now 8-1 ATS. I aruge that eventaully Vegas and gamblers will adjust these lines accordingly. Last year a few teams made it to 11-5 ATS, that would mean the Titans would go 3-4 the rest of the season. In 2006, only one team had 11 wins ATS and that was the Titans. I think they will revert towards the mean, even if the mean is 11 wins. So I will bet against them this game, no matter what the line is. I expect the Titans to be favored by a few points on this road game. Titans -3
Dal @ Was
Last week's Sunday night game, we left it to a vote. Suprisingly, 80% of you took the Giants and the 3 points. It turned out to be a good bet. I want to see if my readers are as smart as I think. The line I see is Cowboys getting a point, so basically a pick 'em game. If I am not as hung over as I was Sunday I will do a preview of the game and hopefully actually place my bets.
| My Line | Real Line | My Bet |
| Eagles -21 | Eagles -9 | Eagles |
| O/U 49 | 42 | |
| Tampa Bay -7 | Tampa Bay -4 | Tampa Bay |
| O/U 35 | 39 | |
| Giants -7 | Giants -7 | |
| O/U 41 | 41 | |
| Dolphins -14 | Dolphins -11 | |
| O/U 34 | 39 | |
| Saints -3 | Saints -5 | |
| O/U 59 | 50 | Over |
| Colts -6 | Colts- 8 | Texans |
| O/U 50 | 50 | |
| Packers -3 | Packers -4 | |
| Panthers -18 | Panthers -14 | Panthers |
| O/U 38 | 40 | |
| Falcons -6 | Falcons -6 | |
| O/U 54 | 50 | |
| Cardinals -6 | Cardinals -3 | Cardinals |
| O/U 51 | 48 | |
| 49ers -7 | 49ers -6.5 | |
| O/U 41 | 44 | |
| Titans -3 | Titans -3 | Titans |
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Week 11 Thursday Night Preview
We have a game Thursday night so I thought I would do a preview and also provide you with some links to articles that I found interesting today.
NYJ @ NE
The Jets offense has been averaging 28 points a game. Its been an average offense overall, below average passing and top five running. The New England defense has been below average, horrible at stopping the pass and in the top 10 against the run. The Patrios have been allowing 15 points a game over the last three. I expect Favre and company to score 21 points on offense. The Patriots offense is exactly like the Jets, with all the same strengths and weaknesses. The difference is they are only scoring 21 points game on offense. The Jets defense is actually top 10 and very good against the run. I expect the Patriots only to score 17 points.
Jets -4
O/U 38
Some random links of sites I enjoyed today:
Jets versus Patriots Media Guide (njfrogman)
Conan making fun of Seth Green (kissingsuzykolber)
NYJ @ NE
The Jets offense has been averaging 28 points a game. Its been an average offense overall, below average passing and top five running. The New England defense has been below average, horrible at stopping the pass and in the top 10 against the run. The Patrios have been allowing 15 points a game over the last three. I expect Favre and company to score 21 points on offense. The Patriots offense is exactly like the Jets, with all the same strengths and weaknesses. The difference is they are only scoring 21 points game on offense. The Jets defense is actually top 10 and very good against the run. I expect the Patriots only to score 17 points.
Jets -4
O/U 38
Some random links of sites I enjoyed today:
Jets versus Patriots Media Guide (njfrogman)
Conan making fun of Seth Green (kissingsuzykolber)
Monday, November 10, 2008
Week 10 Review
Every degenerate gambler has that moment. After a loss, hoping that they picked the wrong team or didn't remember the line the right way. Today, I had that one in a million moment. I would have gone 3-4 because of a late added bet on the Lions. The Jaguars might have their team issues but the Lions were starting a QB who just started playing that week and hasn't been good in four years. Imagine my surprise when I realized I set all the bets but never put them through. To make things even better I got a bonus earlier in the week for betting so many games. The bonus gave me a 76.7% return for the week. The high number says less about the bonus and more about how bad things had become. I know there has been some confusion on the cumulative return. That return is based on a one time investment on week one, say $100. That $100 is only worth $19.20 now.
Record: 0-0
Weekly Return: 76.7%
Cumulative Return: -80.8%
Record: 0-0
Weekly Return: 76.7%
Cumulative Return: -80.8%
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Week 10 Preview
A Thursday night game means an early preview and hopefully a third strong week in a row. To add a little more details, first I am looking at the yards per attempt on offense and defense. Next, I am making a list of where each team ranks per attempt. So it gives me an idea of how good their offense and defense stacks up in the league. The following are the previews, as always no Monday Night Football preview. I have also updated the comments section, so I will be able to respond to comments quickly.
DEN @ CLE
One amazing stat is Denver is 1-6-1 ATS and I think this is a result of their inconsistent play on a week to week basis. The Broncos are averaging 24 points a game over the season but only 14 points a game over the last three. They have a top 5 rushing team but only rushed for 14 yards last week. Sure, they have had injuries but that is a big difference. Fortunately, they are facing a below average defense that is allowing 23 points a game. I expect the Broncos to score 20 points this game. The Browns have made a change at QB, but their big problem has been running the ball. If you are going to make a change at QB it is a good thing you are going against the 30th ranked passing defense. The Broncos are allowing 30 points a game. It's hard to figure out the new QB. I assume the Browns will score a little more than their 20 a game they are averaging. I expect them to score 23 points this game. Browns -3
BAL @ HOU
Another game, another change of the QB for the Texans. The Ravens offense is relying on a strong running game but they passing offense has been improving especially over the past 3 weeks, 8.3 yards an attempt. The Texans defense has improved over the last 3 weeks, but it included games against DET, CIN and MIN. They are still one of the worse defenses in the league and the worse rushing defense. I expect the Ravens to score under their 3 game average (31) but still scoring 28 points. The Texans have an above average offense and I don't think it will do any worse with Rosenfuls, in fact it might even do better. They have been averaging 28 points a game over the last 3. The Ravens have a top 3 defense and the best rush defense in the league. I expect the Texans to score 21 points this game. Ravens -7
STL @ NYJ
The Rams offense offense has returned to suckyness. The continue to have one of the worse offenses in the league. They have improved to 21 points a game over the last three. The Jets have been average on defense and allowing 20 points over the last three games. Seems pretty easy to me, I expect the Rams to score 21 points. The Rams defense is even worse than their offense. They have improved in the last three games giving up 6 points less a game but still the same amount of yards. The Jets have been increasing their yards per game but not their points. I expect the Jets to reach their season average of 26 points a game. Jets -5
BUF @ NE
The Bills have a below average offense and the main problem is a horrible running game, 3.4 yards an attempt over the last three games. The Patriots defense has improved on a point basis but not on a yard basis, still they are only allowing 311 yards a game. The problem is they have the worst pass defense in the league, its amazing they are playing as well as they are on defense. I expect the Bills to score their 23 points a game they have been averaging over the season. The Patriots have an average offense, but it has been improving, behind a top 5 running game. The Bills defense has been consistantly average, allowing 21 points a game all season and in the last three. I expect the Patriots to score the 21 points a game. Bills -2
GB @ MIN
The Packers offense has been consistant over the season and the last three games, 26 points a game. They have continued to struggle in the running game. The Vikings have a top 5 defense by yards and average. The problem is their special teams have been giving up a lot points. I expect the Packers to only score 23 points this game. The Vikings offense has been below average and the biggest problem has been their running game. They have had one good game but that was agaisnt the Bears, if you remove that they have scored 16 points a game over the last 3. This is what the Packers have been giving up the last 3 games. Packers -7
SEA @ MIA
The Seahawks offense has averaged 255 yards a game over the season and even worse only 223 yards over the last 3 games. The Dolphins have been allowing 20 points a game during the season and the last 3. I expect the Seahawks to only score 14 points this game. The Dolphins offense has also been very consistant with 21 points over the season and each game. The Seahawks defense has improved by points but not by yards. I think the Dolphins will score 21 points this game. Dolphins -7
JAC @ DET
Both of these teams have had bad seasons, in records and ATS. The Jaguars have had an average offense, 14th in total, running and passing. It is a little suprising they are only averaging 20 points a game. The problem, is they have no big play threats and its hard to consistantly put together 15 play drives to score. The Lions have the worst defense in the league allowing 27 points a game. I expect the Jaguars to be able to score that many points. The Lions offense has a new QB and it could be a guy they just signed this week. The Jaguars are allowing 20 points a game and thats what the Lions have been scoring. I expect the Lions to get their 20 points. Jaguars -7
TEN @ CHI
Even after last weeks loss ATS, the Titans are still 7-1. Before last week I would have said take the Bears, no questions asked. The problem isn't the 28 points a game they are giving up on defense. It is not the fact they struggled against the Lions. It is the fact that Grossman is probably going to be the starter. He looked pretty bad in the game in relief, with little to no accuracy. I would only take the Bears if I was getting more than 7 points. Titans -7
NO @ ATL
The Saints have a top three offense and are coming off of a bye week. Their scoring has been the result of a great season by Drew Brees. The Falcons have a below average defense and seem to have questionable opponents. The Saints have been averaging 27 points a game on offense and the Falcons have been allowing 20 a game, both numbers over a season. I see the Saints only scoring 24 points on offense. The Falcons have a top 10 offense and their passing game has been better than their running game. In fact, its suprising they have been only scoring 22 points a game. The Saints have a below average defense and a below average pass defense. I expect the Falcons to score 24 points. Falcons -0
CAR @ OAK
The Panthers are 5-0 at home and 1-2 on the road. The Raiders just cut their former pro bowl CB who they signed to an offseason $70 million dollar deal after trading a second round pick for him. Sadly, this might be addition by subtraction because Hall has been horrible all season. The Panthers have an average offense, great passing and poor rushing. The Raiders have average defense, average passing and poor rushing defense. I expect the Panthers to score the 25 a game the Raiders are giving up, but I expect S.Smith to be blanketed all game by the best CB in the NFL. The Raiders offense has been getting worse throughout the season. I think they will be lucky to score their average of the season of 14 points a game. Carolina -11
KC @ SD
This game has blood bath written all over it. The Chiefs loss a heartbreak last week to the Bucs. Their offense seems to be improving and they are scoring 20 points a game now. The Chargers defense has been giving up 24 points a game and I expect the Chiefs to score that. The Chiefs have been giving up 28 points a game and 5.4 yards a rush. The Chargers have been scoring 28 points a game with their running game struggling. I expect the Chargers to take advantage of the poor defense and score 35 points. Chargers -11
IND @ PIT
The Colts can't run the ball and the passing game has still been struggling. They are barely averaging 300 yards a game and only 21 points. They are facing the #1 defense in the Steelers. The Steelers have been allowing 14 points a game on defense. I think the Colts will be lucky to score 17 points this game on offense. The Steelers offense was struggling before the injury to Rothlesburger and now Leftwich is starting, thats a big step backwards. The Colts were allowing 25 points a game over the last 3 and thats what the Steelers were scoring. Even with Leftwich I expect the Steelers to score 21 points. Steelers -7
NYG @ PHI
I have decided I will put the Sunday night game up as a poll this week, please vote and feel free to put your thoughts in the comments. I will post my thoughts Sunday morning.
You will notice that I only have 5 bets right now. They are two games off the board that hopefully will be open to bet on Sunday. There is also the Giants game. On the other hand, the one thing we learned was betting only 6 games is a horrible idea. If I only end up with these 5 games I will only bet half the money I have.
DEN @ CLE
One amazing stat is Denver is 1-6-1 ATS and I think this is a result of their inconsistent play on a week to week basis. The Broncos are averaging 24 points a game over the season but only 14 points a game over the last three. They have a top 5 rushing team but only rushed for 14 yards last week. Sure, they have had injuries but that is a big difference. Fortunately, they are facing a below average defense that is allowing 23 points a game. I expect the Broncos to score 20 points this game. The Browns have made a change at QB, but their big problem has been running the ball. If you are going to make a change at QB it is a good thing you are going against the 30th ranked passing defense. The Broncos are allowing 30 points a game. It's hard to figure out the new QB. I assume the Browns will score a little more than their 20 a game they are averaging. I expect them to score 23 points this game. Browns -3
BAL @ HOU
Another game, another change of the QB for the Texans. The Ravens offense is relying on a strong running game but they passing offense has been improving especially over the past 3 weeks, 8.3 yards an attempt. The Texans defense has improved over the last 3 weeks, but it included games against DET, CIN and MIN. They are still one of the worse defenses in the league and the worse rushing defense. I expect the Ravens to score under their 3 game average (31) but still scoring 28 points. The Texans have an above average offense and I don't think it will do any worse with Rosenfuls, in fact it might even do better. They have been averaging 28 points a game over the last 3. The Ravens have a top 3 defense and the best rush defense in the league. I expect the Texans to score 21 points this game. Ravens -7
STL @ NYJ
The Rams offense offense has returned to suckyness. The continue to have one of the worse offenses in the league. They have improved to 21 points a game over the last three. The Jets have been average on defense and allowing 20 points over the last three games. Seems pretty easy to me, I expect the Rams to score 21 points. The Rams defense is even worse than their offense. They have improved in the last three games giving up 6 points less a game but still the same amount of yards. The Jets have been increasing their yards per game but not their points. I expect the Jets to reach their season average of 26 points a game. Jets -5
BUF @ NE
The Bills have a below average offense and the main problem is a horrible running game, 3.4 yards an attempt over the last three games. The Patriots defense has improved on a point basis but not on a yard basis, still they are only allowing 311 yards a game. The problem is they have the worst pass defense in the league, its amazing they are playing as well as they are on defense. I expect the Bills to score their 23 points a game they have been averaging over the season. The Patriots have an average offense, but it has been improving, behind a top 5 running game. The Bills defense has been consistantly average, allowing 21 points a game all season and in the last three. I expect the Patriots to score the 21 points a game. Bills -2
GB @ MIN
The Packers offense has been consistant over the season and the last three games, 26 points a game. They have continued to struggle in the running game. The Vikings have a top 5 defense by yards and average. The problem is their special teams have been giving up a lot points. I expect the Packers to only score 23 points this game. The Vikings offense has been below average and the biggest problem has been their running game. They have had one good game but that was agaisnt the Bears, if you remove that they have scored 16 points a game over the last 3. This is what the Packers have been giving up the last 3 games. Packers -7
SEA @ MIA
The Seahawks offense has averaged 255 yards a game over the season and even worse only 223 yards over the last 3 games. The Dolphins have been allowing 20 points a game during the season and the last 3. I expect the Seahawks to only score 14 points this game. The Dolphins offense has also been very consistant with 21 points over the season and each game. The Seahawks defense has improved by points but not by yards. I think the Dolphins will score 21 points this game. Dolphins -7
JAC @ DET
Both of these teams have had bad seasons, in records and ATS. The Jaguars have had an average offense, 14th in total, running and passing. It is a little suprising they are only averaging 20 points a game. The problem, is they have no big play threats and its hard to consistantly put together 15 play drives to score. The Lions have the worst defense in the league allowing 27 points a game. I expect the Jaguars to be able to score that many points. The Lions offense has a new QB and it could be a guy they just signed this week. The Jaguars are allowing 20 points a game and thats what the Lions have been scoring. I expect the Lions to get their 20 points. Jaguars -7
TEN @ CHI
Even after last weeks loss ATS, the Titans are still 7-1. Before last week I would have said take the Bears, no questions asked. The problem isn't the 28 points a game they are giving up on defense. It is not the fact they struggled against the Lions. It is the fact that Grossman is probably going to be the starter. He looked pretty bad in the game in relief, with little to no accuracy. I would only take the Bears if I was getting more than 7 points. Titans -7
NO @ ATL
The Saints have a top three offense and are coming off of a bye week. Their scoring has been the result of a great season by Drew Brees. The Falcons have a below average defense and seem to have questionable opponents. The Saints have been averaging 27 points a game on offense and the Falcons have been allowing 20 a game, both numbers over a season. I see the Saints only scoring 24 points on offense. The Falcons have a top 10 offense and their passing game has been better than their running game. In fact, its suprising they have been only scoring 22 points a game. The Saints have a below average defense and a below average pass defense. I expect the Falcons to score 24 points. Falcons -0
CAR @ OAK
The Panthers are 5-0 at home and 1-2 on the road. The Raiders just cut their former pro bowl CB who they signed to an offseason $70 million dollar deal after trading a second round pick for him. Sadly, this might be addition by subtraction because Hall has been horrible all season. The Panthers have an average offense, great passing and poor rushing. The Raiders have average defense, average passing and poor rushing defense. I expect the Panthers to score the 25 a game the Raiders are giving up, but I expect S.Smith to be blanketed all game by the best CB in the NFL. The Raiders offense has been getting worse throughout the season. I think they will be lucky to score their average of the season of 14 points a game. Carolina -11
KC @ SD
This game has blood bath written all over it. The Chiefs loss a heartbreak last week to the Bucs. Their offense seems to be improving and they are scoring 20 points a game now. The Chargers defense has been giving up 24 points a game and I expect the Chiefs to score that. The Chiefs have been giving up 28 points a game and 5.4 yards a rush. The Chargers have been scoring 28 points a game with their running game struggling. I expect the Chargers to take advantage of the poor defense and score 35 points. Chargers -11
IND @ PIT
The Colts can't run the ball and the passing game has still been struggling. They are barely averaging 300 yards a game and only 21 points. They are facing the #1 defense in the Steelers. The Steelers have been allowing 14 points a game on defense. I think the Colts will be lucky to score 17 points this game on offense. The Steelers offense was struggling before the injury to Rothlesburger and now Leftwich is starting, thats a big step backwards. The Colts were allowing 25 points a game over the last 3 and thats what the Steelers were scoring. Even with Leftwich I expect the Steelers to score 21 points. Steelers -7
NYG @ PHI
I have decided I will put the Sunday night game up as a poll this week, please vote and feel free to put your thoughts in the comments. I will post my thoughts Sunday morning.
You will notice that I only have 5 bets right now. They are two games off the board that hopefully will be open to bet on Sunday. There is also the Giants game. On the other hand, the one thing we learned was betting only 6 games is a horrible idea. If I only end up with these 5 games I will only bet half the money I have.
| My Line | BoDog Line | My Bet |
| Browns -3 | Browns -3 | |
| O/U 43 | 46 | |
| Ravens -7 | Ravens -1 | Ravens |
| O/U 49 | 42 | |
| Jets -5 | off the board | |
| O/U 47 | off the board | |
| Bills -2 | Bills +4 | Bills |
| O/U 44 | 41.5 | |
| Packers -7 | Packers +2 | Packers |
| O/U 39 | 45.5 | |
| Dolphins -7 | Dolphins -9 | |
| O/U 35 | 43 | Under |
| Jaguars -7 | Jaguars -7 | |
| O/U 47 | 44.5 | |
| Titans -7 | Titans -3 | |
| Falcons -0 | Falcons -0 | |
| O/U 48 | 50 | |
| Panthers -11 | Panthers -9.5 | |
| O/U 39 | 38 | |
| Chargers -11 | Chargers -15 | |
| O/U 59 | 47.5 | Over |
| Steelers -7 | off the board | |
| O/U 35 | off the board |
Monday, November 3, 2008
Week 9 Review
It was a disappointing weekend for the website, the poll I posted only got two votes and one of them was mine, so I decided not to bet on the game. That was a shame because I was going to go with the Chiefs, I just didn't see Tampa Bay beating anyone by double digits. Fortunately, despite poor reader interaction I had my best week of the season. The amazing part of the week was after halftime of the first games I was staring 1-4 in the face. Its now two weeks under the revised system and the results are promising so far. This week I went 7-2 with a 49.93% return for the week. Over the last two weeks I am 12-5-1 with a cumulative return of 76.84%. So hopefully, someone decided two weeks ago to follow my moves, after doing the exact opposite the first 8 weeks.
Record: 7-2
Weekly Return: 49.93%
Cumulative Return: -90.02%
| (401) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (402) Bengals Over 39½ Sun@12:00p | Win |
| (405) Baltimore Ravens +2 (-105) Sun@12:00p | Win |
| (407) New York Jets vs. (408) Buffalo Bills Over 42 Sun@12:00p | Win |
| (413) Green Bay Packers +4½ (-115) Sun@12:00p | Win |
| (415) Miami Dolphins +3½ (-105) Sun@3:05p | Win |
| (417) Atlanta Falcons -3 (EVEN) Sun@3:15p | Win |
| (423) New England Patriots +6½ Sun@7:15p | Win |
| (399) Houston Texans +190 Sun@12:00p | Loss |
| (421) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (422) Seattle Seahawks Over 43 Sun@3:15p | Loss |
Record: 7-2
Weekly Return: 49.93%
Cumulative Return: -90.02%
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Week 9 Actual Bets
Below are the actual bets made for week 9. I did bet on the money line with the Texans, a team I really think could beat the Vikings. I had a hard time trying to decide on the Patriots game, I could have bought an extra 1/2th point but you are than paying -125. I decided it wasn't worth it, so I am only getting 6.5 points.
| (399) Houston Texans +190 Sun@12:00p |
| (401) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (402) Cincinnati Bengals Over 39½ Sun@12:00p |
| (405) Baltimore Ravens +2 (-105) Sun@12:00p |
| (407) New York Jets vs. (408) Buffalo Bills Over 42 Sun@12:00p |
| (413) Green Bay Packers +4½ (-115) Sun@12:00p |
| (415) Miami Dolphins +3½ (-105) Sun@3:05p |
| (417) Atlanta Falcons -3 (EVEN) Sun@3:15p |
| (421) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (422) Seattle Seahawks Over 43 Sun@3:15p |
| (423) New England Patriots +6½ Sun@7:15p |
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