First Round of Playoffs Preview

With three weeks of data I was able to run some more regression analysis. It was pretty amazing but what ended up being the most significant information were two items. For the visiting team the most important factor was the point allowed per home game for the home team. It was almost 99% significant. This makes sense because it was the 6th-8th game for the home team and the number was probably a good indication of how well they play defense at home.

For the home team the most important factor was the three week average defense for the visiting team. This also makes a lot of sense. It is tougher for a visiting team and why Vegas always gives the home team three points. The NFL and sports in general is about momentum. So it stands to reason a visiting team is going to play as good or bad as their last three weeks.

Enough of the geek speak and onto the games.

Teams	Spread	O/U	Predicted	Off Avg	Def Avg	Def 3	Def H	Def A	Projected
The Cardinals are allowing 34 points a game over their last three and have allowed 22 points a game at home over the season. This includes home games against the 49ers, the Rams and the Seahawks. Atlanta has been scoring around 20 points a game on the road, over the season and for the last three games. I will give them 28 because of the poor Cardinals defense as of late and at home. The Cardinals are only averaging 18 points a game over the last three. The Falcons are only allowing 18 points a game over the last three. In fact Atlanta is strong at 20 points for all their defensive numbers. I will give the Cardinals 21.
Atlanta (#7, 11-5)	-1	51	26	24.4	20.3	18	20.5	20.1	28	Atlanta
Arizona (#18, 9-7)	1	51	25	26.7	26.6	34.3	22.2	31	21
This is a hard game to call both teams have weaknesses and the Chargers seem to match up well against the Colts. This is the classic offense versus defense game. I believe that a good defense will hold down a good offense and this game will be lower scoring than predicted. If I had a gun to my head I would pick the Colts, because its Norv Turner. The under seams a better play, these teams are allowing 37 points a game combined over the last 3.
Indianapolis (#3, 12-4)	-1	51	26	23.6	18.6	15	15.1	22.1	20	Under
San Diego (#15, 8-8)	1	51	25	27.4	21.7	22	19.6	23.8	21
The Ravens have been very good to me all season. The Dolphins are allowing 20 points a game on all their stats. Baltimore is scoring even more but I could conservatively give Baltimore 20. Next, the Dolphins are only averaging 19 points a game at home and 17 for the season. The Ravens are allowing 15 points a game over the last three and the season. I see Miami being lucky to score 15.
Baltimore (#4, 11-5)	-3	37.5	20.25	24.1	15.2	14.7	10	20.5	20	Baltimore
Miami (#11, 11-5)	3	37.5	17.25	21.6	19.8	19	20.5	19.1	15
Before even looking at the stats for this game remember Tavaris Jackson is the starting QB. The Eagles are clicking on defense allowing 9 points a game over their last three. I just don't have faith in a one dimensional offense doing well in the playoffs and think the Eagles will hold the Vikings to 14 points. The Eagles offense has been scoring a ton of points except for the Redskins game which I still can't explain. The Vikings are allowing 20 points a game over the season and the last three. They have been a little better at home, but Williams if he does play will be injured. Just a reminder, Tavaris Jackson is starting for the Vikings.
Philadelphia (#8, 9-6-1)	-3	41.5	22.25	26	18.1	8.7	14.8	21.4	21	Philadelphia
Minnesota (#10, 10-6)	3	41.5	19.25	23.7	20.8	19	17.9	23.8	14

Regular Season Results

It's been a difficult year but I feel like I learned a lot and I did finish above .500 on the season. I think the reverse engineering has been the most effective way to look at the games. Still, the Titans and Colts game is a perfect reason why you need to read a preview or two. I had no idea that Sorgi and V.Young were going to play most of the game at QB. Knowing this I would have moved away from the game and never bet the over. It was not the first time I heard about an injury or change after I already made the bet. Below are the results:

(301) Oakland Raiders +13 Sun@12:00p	Win
(307) New York Giants +7 (-115) Sun@12:00p	Win
(313) St. Louis Rams +14 (-105) Sun@12:00p	Win
(322) Pittsburgh Steelers -11 Sun@12:00p	Win
(325) New England Patriots -6 Sun@12:00p	Win
(328) Arizona Cardinals -7 (-105) Sun@3:15p	Win
(303) Detroit Lions vs. (304) Green Bay Packers Under 43 Sun@12:00p	Loss
(309) Chicago Bears +3 (-120) Sun@12:00p	Loss
(315) Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-125) Sun@12:00p	Loss
(317) Jacksonville Jaguars +11 Sun@3:15p	Loss
(319) Tennessee Titans vs. (320) Indianapolis Colts Over 39 Sun@12:00p	Loss
(331) Denver Broncos +8 Sun@7:15p	Loss
Record: 6-6
Overall Record: 85-76-5 (52.8%)
Record since reverse engineering: 28-19-1 (59.6%)
Weekly Return: -3.86%
Cumulative Return: -62.87%

Week 17 Actual Bets

Below are the actual bets. I ended up passing on the Panthers game because the line moved from -1 to -3. There have been a few games where the line moved dramatically and I didn't notice it. So I have made a better effort to keep an eye on the actual lines before betting. I also had to pass on the 49ers game because it was off the board.

(301) Oakland Raiders +13 Sun@12:00p

(303) Detroit Lions vs. (304) Green Bay Packers Under 43 Sun@12:00p

(307) New York Giants +7 (-115) Sun@12:00p

(309) Chicago Bears +3 (-120) Sun@12:00p

(313) St. Louis Rams +14 (-105) Sun@12:00p

(315) Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-125) Sun@12:00p

(317) Jacksonville Jaguars +11 Sun@3:15p

(319) Tennessee Titans vs. (320) Indianapolis Colts Over 39 Sun@12:00p

(322) Pittsburgh Steelers -11 Sun@12:00p

(325) New England Patriots -6 Sun@12:00p

(328) Arizona Cardinals -7 (-105) Sun@3:15p

(331) Denver Broncos +8 Sun@7:15p

Week 17 Preview

Sorry for the late posts, the holiday's made it tough. Again I looked at the last three weeks but I felt like I put to much emphasis on it last week. So I also looked at the breakdowns on rushing, passing and overall yards per attempt. Finally, I put a little more weight on teams that were playing for something. For example, I expect the Bears to put everything on the line with a potential playoff spot on the line. I don't expect the Texans to have as much emotion, this is also the same team that lost to the Raiders last week.

Teams	Spread	O/U	Predicted	2008	Off 3	2008	Def 3	Projected
Chicago (#13, 9-6)	3	47	22	23.4	23.3	21.3	17	24	Chicago
Houston (#18, 7-8)	-3	47	25	22.3	17.7	24.7	20	18
Carolina (#6, 11-4)	-1	51	26	25.4	32	19.9	22.3	30	Carolina
New Orleans (#14, 8-7)	1	51	25	28.8	31.7	24	19.7	28
NY Giants (#2, 12-3)	7	42	18	27.2	18.7	18.3	22.7	19	Giants
Minnesota (#9, 9-6)	-7	42	25	23.9	24	20.9	18	23
New England (#11, 10-5)	-6	40	23	26.5	40	20.6	18	28	New England
Buffalo (#24, 7-8)	6	40	17	22.4	20	21.9	23.3	17
St Louis (#31, 2-13)	14	45	15	13.7	15.3	28.9	24.7	15	St Louis
Atlanta (#7, 10-5)	-14	45	29	24	20.7	19.9	18.7	24
Oakland (#28, 4-11)	13	39	13	15.5	20	24.3	33	16	Oakland
Tampa Bay (#12, 9-6)	-13	39	26	22.5	19	19.5	30.7	22
Kansas City (#30, 2-13)	3	39	18	19	23	28.3	28	21	Kansas City
Cincinnati (#25, 3-11-1)	-3	39	21	12.5	12.3	23.9	16	12
Tennessee (#1, 13-2)	-3	39	21	25	23.7	14.1	12	24	Over
Indianapolis (#5, 11-4)	3	39	18	23.6	32.3	19.9	16	26
Detroit (#32, 0-15)	10.5	43	16	16.5	14.7	32.4	31	15	Under
Green Bay (#21, 5-10)	-10.5	43	27	25.9	18	23.9	21.3	24
Cleveland (#26, 4-11)	11	34	11	15.5	6.3	21.3	24	7
Pittsburgh (#3, 11-4)	-11	34	22	21.1	15.7	14.9	17.7	21	Pittsburgh
Miami (#15, 10-5)	3	43	20	21.4	22.7	20	14.3	21
NY Jets (#19, 9-6)	-3	43	23	25.9	16	22.1	21.3	24
Dallas (#10, 9-6)	1	43	21	23.7	19	21.4	20.3
Philadelphia (#8, 8-6-1)	-1	43	22	24.8	17.7	18.9	11.3
Seattle (#29, 4-11)	6.5	46	20	18.2	19	23.9	15.7	19
Arizona (#20, 8-7)	-6.5	46	26	26.2	18.3	27	30.7	28	Arizona
Washington (#16, 8-7)	3	38	17	16.1	11	17.9	15.7	14	Under
San Francisco (#27, 6-9)	-3	38	20	20.8	16.7	23.8	14.7	17
Jacksonville (#23, 5-10)	11	38	13	19.7	18	22.7	23.3	14	Jacksonville
Baltimore (#4, 10-5)	-11	38	24	23.9	22	15.8	15.7	20
Denver (#22, 8-7)	9	51	21	23.3	19	26.4	25.7	21	Denver
San Diego (#17, 7-8)	-9	51	30	25.8	32.3	21.7	17.3	24

Week 16 Results

Things were looking really good during the early games where it looked like I was going to go 5-0. Than the Chiefs decided to completely melt down at the end of the game. The Eagles absolutely fell apart in their game against the Redskins. They had 6 drops and at least three of them would have been touchdowns. Still, good teams find a way to win and make plays. They ended up coming 6 inches short of tying the game. The Panthers loss was another tough loss. They had a lead most of the game and even when they let the Giants tie the game I felt comfortable giving 3.5. Even when the game went into overtime I felt comfortable. Of course, the Giants scored a TD to cover in overtime. I saw absolutely nothing of the Raiders game but it seems when a team has a very good #1 WR and goes against the best CB in the league it usually is a problem for the offense. The Panthers also struggled against the Raiders. This may just be the Asomugha rule but something to remember for next year. Still, despite a few bad breaks I still went 6-4 on the week and continue my above .500 record for the year.

(103) Baltimore Ravens +6 Sat@7:15p	Win
(106) Tennessee Titans +3 (-115) Sun@12:00p	Win
(111) Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-135) Sun@12:00p	Win
(115) 49ers vs. (116) Rams Under 42½ Sun@12:00p	Win
(127) Buffalo Bills +6 (-115) Sun@3:05p	Win
(129) San Diego Chargers +4 (-115) Sun@12:00p	Win
(108) Kansas City Chiefs +4 (-115) Sun@12:00p	Loss
(113) Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-105) Sun@3:15p	Loss
(121) Carolina Panthers +3½ Sun@7:15p	Loss
(125) Houston Texans -7 (-115) Sun@3:05p	Loss
Record: 6-4
Overall Record: 79-71-5
Weekly Return: 12.23%
Cumulative Return: -61.38%

Week 16 Actual Bets

Already a good start to the week with a Ravens win. The Ravens have continued to be a great team to bet on this year. Their defense is back to being a top five defense and their offense is probably the best its been in the Ray Lewis era. This team reminds me of the Steelers Super Bowl team with rookie Rothlesburger. Below are the actual bets for Sunday:

(106) Tennessee Titans +3 (-115) Sun@12:00p

(108) Kansas City Chiefs +4 (-115) Sun@12:00p

(111) Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-135) Sun@12:00p

(113) Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-105) Sun@3:15p

(115) San Francisco 49ers vs. (116) St. Louis Rams Under 42½ Sun@12:00p

(121) Carolina Panthers +3½ Sun@7:15p

(125) Houston Texans -7 (-115) Sun@3:05p

(127) Buffalo Bills +6 (-115) Sun@3:05p

(129) San Diego Chargers +4 (-115) Sun@12:00p

Week 16 Preview

Just a quick note, I would like to thank Brian for submitting his hockey information on the blog. Brian has been sending out great emails during the Blackhawks season and I have been begging him to just post them. As you can imagine its hard to find quality Blackhawk information on the web. I would also like to take this time to beg everyone to vote for the Blackhawks in the All-Star game. Toews is only four thousand votes away from starting and I can't tell you how impressive it would be to have two starters for the Blackhawks.

I had some time this week to run multiple regression on Week 15 and some interesting information came up. Of course this was just on one week of information so they are obvious sample size issues. The only category that was statistically significant was offense over three weeks. It was significant at a 90% level. Surprisingly, defense was almost no factor in the equation. So I made sure you keep an eye on the last three weeks scoring. The problem of course, is that a very good or bad game can skew these numbers.

Teams	Spread	O/U	Projected	Off Avg	Off 3	Def Avg	Predicted
The Ravens have been scoring 23 points a game and 22 over the last three. The Cowboys defense is good but not great. I have faith that the Revens will score over 20 points which should not only be enough to cover but put them in position to win the game
Baltimore (#4, 9-5)	4	39.5	17.75	23.2	22.3	15.2	20	Baltimore
Dallas (#11, 9-5)	-4	39.5	21.75	23.7	22.3	20.6	17
Tampa Bay has a very good defense but they have struggled recently. Vegas has the Chargers scoring 5 points less then their offensive averages. I think they score closer to their averages, Rivers has been playing great. Tampa Bay has been struggling on offense and I see this game probably come down to a game winning field goal from either team. The bonus is that if one team is going to explode and score points its the Chargers.
San Diego (#22, 6-8)	3.5	42.5	19.5	24.7	24	21.6	21	San Diego
Tampa Bay (#9, 9-5)	-3.5	42.5	23	22.4	18.7	17.9	20
The Steelers have a top defense but to think they will hold the Titans to 17 points, 12 points below their three game average, is a little far fetched for me. This game is at home for the Titans, they are coming off a loss and its for home field in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh (#2, 11-3)	-1	34.5	17.75	21.6	22	13.7	21
Tennessee (#1, 12-2)	1	34.5	16.75	24.6	29	14.1	24	Tennessee
The Cardinals have a number of players possibly sitting so I am going to pass on the game.
Arizona (#16, 8-6)	9	45	18	27.6	22.7	25.6	20
New England (#15, 9-5)	-9	45	27	25	27.7	21.6	27
These teams have been averaging 28 points a game combined over the last 3 and 34 points a game during the season.
San Francisco (#26, 5-9)	-5.5	43.5	24.5	21.1	14.3	24.4	17	Under
St Louis (#31, 2-12)	5.5	43.5	19	13.5	14	29.8	17
If the Lions are going to win a game it could be against a horrible defense and Megatron having a monster game, this game just scares me, pass.
New Orleans (#14, 7-7)	-7	50.5	28.75	27.9	24.3	25.2	27
Detroit (#32, 0-14)	7	50.5	21.75	17.1	15.7	31.7	17
The Dolphins are a good football team that limits their mistakes. They just don't score a lot of points. The Chiefs will be able to hold them close to their three game average of 15 points a game. If the Chiefs can score 13 points they will cover, thats a good possibility.
Miami (#18, 9-5)	-3.5	39.5	21.5	20.2	15.3	19.2	16
Kansas City (#30, 2-12)	3.5	39.5	18	18.1	19.3	27.6	17	Kansas City
Ken Dorsy, bet against him.
Cincinnati (#25, 2-11-1)	3	32.5	14.75	12.4	8.7	25.6	13	Cincinnati
Cleveland (#23, 4-10)	-3	32.5	17.75	16.6	8.3	21.8	10
NY Jets (#17, 9-5)	-4	43	23.5	27.5	20.7	22.8	21
Seattle (#28, 3-11)	4	43	19.5	18.6	17.7	25.4	17
The Bills are going back to Edwards at QB and if he is healthy he will have the Bills looking like the team they were at the beginning of the year. The Broncos have a poor defense and the Bills numbers are skewed because Losman is horrible.
Buffalo (#27, 6-8)	7	45	19	21.9	11	21.9	17	Buffalo
Denver (#21, 8-6)	-7	45	26	23.3	22.7	26.1	21
I find it hard to believe the Raiders will explode for 19 points, they have averaged 14 all season and 15 during the last three. The Texans have started playing very well and they might be out of the playoffs but it would mean a lot to this team to go 9-7 and remember the Colts meltdown. The Raiders quit playing in September.
Houston (#13, 7-7)	-7	44	25.5	22.8	22.3	24.5	24	Houston
Oakland (#29, 3-11)	7	44	18.5	14.6	15.3	24.9	14
The Eagles have been scoring 26 points a game all year and 33 the last three games. The Redskins have a good defense but not as good as Vegas is predicting. Plus, the Redskins seem to be falling apart and the Eagles are on the usual late season run.
Philadelphia (#8, 8-5-1)	-5	38.5	21.75	26.4	32.7	19.5	28	Philadelphia
Washington (#20, 7-7)	5	38.5	16.75	16.5	10	19	17
This game is to close to call, can a rookie QB go into a very tough place to play and win the game? I can't wait to watch but I don't have faith in either team right now. The Falcons seem to feast on poor running defenses and the Vikings are starting Tavaris Jackson at QB.
Atlanta (#10, 9-5)	3.5	43	19.75	24	20	20.1	21
Minnesota (#7, 9-5)	-3.5	43	23.25	24.4	29.7	20.7	23
The Giants have been averaging 15 points a game, so I see 20 points as a stretch. The injuries and suspensions have been playing a part but until the Giants have a good offensive game, I expect them to struggle.
Carolina (#5, 11-3)	3	37.5	17.25	25.2	34.3	18.9	17	Carolina
NY Giants (#3, 11-3)	-3	37.5	20.25	26.7	15	17.6	14

Thank You

First, I just wanted to thank Cubs Dynasty for allowing me to post my periodic Hawks insights here on this blog.

I do thing it's mildly ironic that a blog called Cubs Dynasty has so far been about football betting lines and hockey write-ups.

Only in Bob's world would this happen.


And now, to my first post - just a quick summation of the Hawks standing in the ESPN.com, CBS.sportsline, USA Today, and SI.com NHL Power Ratings:


ESPN.com

(starting from their first Power Rankings of the year):

19

Blackhawks

1-2-1

You win your first game of the season ... and your coach gets fired. Was this a smart move or a panic move? Time will tell.

11

Blackhawks

3-2-2

After a tumultuous turn of events, Chicago has responded. It is undefeated in regulation under new coach Joel Quenneville. Mr. Kane also has three goals and three assists in those three games.

5

Blackhawks

7-3-3

After a rocky start to the season, the Blackhawks are 6-1-2 since Joel Quenneville took over as coach. Chicago has also yet to drop a game at home (6-0-2).

11

Blackhawks

7-4-5

Word out of Chicago is that Nikolai Khabibulin is happier and wants to play out his contract in the Windy City. Any takers for the Hawks' second-best goalie, Cristobal Huet?

8

Blackhawks

10-4-5

The Blackhawks have to be Khabby the Bulin Wall is still in Chicago.

10

Blackhawks

10-6-6

Three straight losses with Cristobal Huet in net, but can you completely blame him against San Jose and Anaheim? Seven of Chicago's past nine games have been decided by a single goal, and the Hawks have won just two of those games.

8

Blackhawks

12-6-7

Tough shootout loss to the Red Wings, but we can't wait to see more moves from Jonathan Toews in the Winter Classic.

6

Blackhawks

15-6-7

The truck filled with outdoor goodness has made it to Wrigley and the countdown to Jan. 1 has officially begun!

CBS.Sportsline.com

(starting from their first Power Rankings of the year):

Date

Ranking

10/20/2008	18
Sophomore Patrick Kane was in tears after Savard was fired, but he responded with six points in his first two games under Quenneville.

10/27/2008	16
Playing on the top line with Toews and Kane, Kris Versteeg is becoming a dark horse rookie of the year candidate with two goals and eight points, the best freshman output so far.

11/10/2008	15
Khabibulin and Huet are pushing each other, which is a good thing for Chicago. The Blackhawks are still waiting for Jonathan Toews to get his first goal.

11/09/2008	10
The Blackhawks seem to have fixed whatever ailed them under Denis Savard and quickly. And they're putting on a good show at home so far with a 6-0-2 record.

11/17/2008	11
Not so good in tight situations. Chicago won nearly 60 percent of its one-goal games last season, but has only one victory in eight tries this time.

11/24/2008	5
Nikolai Khabibulin might be on the trading block, but in the meantime he won't let go of his starting job in goal for the surging Blackhawks.

12/01/2008	12
More questions now about Chicago's decision to sign Cristobal Huet. The goalie blew another chance to prove himself, losing all three of his starts on last week's annual circus road trip.

12/08/2008	6
The kids are alright. Patrick Kane has 13 points in his past 10 games, while Jonathan Toews has all eight of his goals in the past 13.

12/15/2008	6
One of the best shows in town. Chicago has sold out all 15 home games this season, and is 10-1-4 at the United Center, scoring four goals per game there.

USAToday.com

(They only release these every two weeks and then rank only the Top 10 teams. But they also rank the contenders for various league-wide awards.)

Chicago Blackhawks

15-6-2-5 (37 pts., 2nd in Central)

51

NR

(That was the Hawks' first appearance of the year, and hopefully one that will be repeated. Their 51 points (i.e. total ranking points by their 7 experts) was just a hear below the #5 Caps (52) and #4 Flyers (53) and significantly above the rest of the pack.

No MVP or Vezina love (makes sense, as the Hawks are gettin contributions from so multiple guys on both fronts), but Keith made his first appearance in the Norris talk, albeit down the list.

According to their experts, Versteeg is in a back-and-forth battle for the Calder with Derick Brassard (a center on Columbus). If they keep close, the Hawks better season could be the difference, but there's a lot of year left.)


SI.com

(starting from their first Power Rankings of the year):

9

Chicago Blackhawks (7-4-5)

The Hawks offered an appreciative nod to their past this week by retiring the number three worn by Pierre Pilote and Keith Magnuson, and naming ex-coach Denis Savard a team ambassador. If only the news from the ice was as heartwarming. The defense gave up 12 goals en route to three straight losses -- hardly the ideal launching pad for the six-game road trip that begins Tuesday. The Hawks have flexed their muscles at home, going 6-1-4, but they've won just one of five road games.

5

Chicago Blackhawks (10-4-5) Let's officially drop any further discussion about trading Nikolai Khabibulin, shall we? After clearing waivers, he clinched his status as Chicago's top option between the pipes (3-0, 2.90 GAA, .918 save pct. and overall mark of 7-1-4). GM Dale Tallon is being lambasted for blowing $22 million on pinewarmer Cristobal Huet, but might save face if he lands a second line center, say, Michael Nylander, in the next few days.

13

Chicago Blackhawks (10-6-6)

This is why it was a good idea to hold off on planning the parade rout. Young teams go through rough patches, and the Hawks are in deep, thanks to the inability to generate secondary scoring. And doesn't it look like that C is weighing heavily on Johnny Toews?

7	Chicago Blackhawks (12-6-7) The best teams spread the offense around. Few do it better than the Hawks. Thanks to Andrew Ladd's hot streak (seven points last week), they boast eight skaters with at least 15 apiece. Only San Jose (10) has more.

6

Chicago Blackhawks (15-6-7)

The story circulating about them skipping a chance to head home last month in order to attend the funeral of GM Dale Tallon's father instead tells you more about what kind of team this is than does their four-game winning streak. This group is building something special.

Week 15 Results

I had an absolutely great week, going 8-2-1. I have done a lot better since working backwards from the over/under and the spread. This allows me to see what Vegas is predicting and to compare it to the past scoring averages. I really think using the home/away and last 3 game splits really helped this week. It was very interesting to see the splits for each team. I am going to look over the games and my results to see where I went wrong and right.

SD -6
The Chargers had averaged 22 points a game away and 23 points the last three games. I thought the Chiefs defense which was allowing over 30 points a game away and the last 3 would allow the Chargers to score even more points. Unfortunately, the Chargers stayed at their number of 22. The Chiefs scored closer to their average the last 3 games and the Chargers overall average. This would have been a prime example of focusing on the 3 game average and the home/away split.

GB/JAX Over
When you bet the over you can't have teams settle for field goals. This game had 5 field goals which is a guaranteed problem for the over. The Packers had been very consistent on offense scoring 27 points a game over the season, over the last three, on the road and away. Even vegas thought they would score 23 points. If the Packers score their 27 they make the over.

Buf +9
Vegas predicted the Bills to only score 16 points way below all of their averages on offense. The Jets defense was not good enough for me to believe they would score so much lower than their averages. Also, earlier in the season the Bills had beaten the Jets.

SF+7
This ended up being a low scoring game but if you look through the Dolphins games almost all have them have been close, they played the Raiders very close. Vegas had the 49ers scoring 18, lower than most of their averages and the Dolphins defensive averages. I have been following the 49ers and they have really been struggling in the red zone and it cost them a win in this game.

Cin+7
Vegas had the Redskins scoring a lot higher than their four averages and I know the Bengals are below average on defense but the Redskins can't score. I am starting to think a bad offense is a bad offense and this game proves it. The Bengals were predicted for 15 points but in the NFL a touchdown on a fluke pay has a lot of chances to happen in 200 plays of a game.

HOU/TEN Under
The Titans were being predicted to score 24 points but the Texans had only given up 15 the last 3 games. The same can be said for the Texans offense, they were facing a defense only allowing 18 points a game and that was their highest of the four averages. So it seemed like a stretch that vegas had them at 21 points.

Min/Arz Over
This was absolutely ridiculous, the Vikings only scoring 22 points a game. This was lower than all of their offensive averages and the Cardinals were giving up a ton of points. The Cardinals have been beating the very bad teams and losing to the very good teams. I found it hard to believe they would hold the Viking to so little points.

Pit +3
This is a tough game to call and one I usually pass on. Two great defenses and what offense will get the big break. Vegas had the Steelers at 16 but that was way below all their averages. If anything this game was a lucky break with the Steelers pulling out in the end. It should be noted the top defenses were dominant over the offenses.

NE -7
I thought the Patriots would score close to the 23 Vegas predicted. I did not think the Raiders would come close to the 16. It looks like Cassell is at a point where he can take advantage of poor defenses as he had another strong game.

(301) New Orleans vs. (302) Chicago Over 46½ Thu@7:15p	Win
(308) Cincinnati Bengals +7 Sun@12:00p	Win
(311) San Francisco 49ers +7 (-130) Sun@12:00p	Win
(315) Buffalo Bills +8 Sun@12:00p	Win
(317) Tennessee vs. (318) Houston Under 45 Sun@12:00p	Win
(319) Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-120) Sun@3:15p	Win
(325) Minnesota vs. (326) Arizona Over 46½ Sun@3:05p	Win
(327) New England Patriots -7 Sun@3:15p	Win
(313) Seattle Seahawks -3 (+105) Sun@12:00p	Push
(303) Green Bay vs. (304) Jacksonville Over 46½ Sun@12:00p	Loss
(323) San Diego Chargers -6 Sun@12:00p	Loss
Record: 8-2-1
Overall Record: 73-67-5
Weekly Return: 54.3%
Cumulative Return: -65.9%

Week 15 Actual Bets

(303) Green Bay Packers vs. (304) Jacksonville Jaguars Over 46½ Sun@12:00p

(308) Cincinnati Bengals +7 Sun@12:00p

(311) San Francisco 49ers +7 (-130) Sun@12:00p

(313) Seattle Seahawks -3 (+105) Sun@12:00p

(315) Buffalo Bills +8 Sun@12:00p

(317) Tennessee Titans vs. (318) Houston Texans Under 45 Sun@12:00p

(319) Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-120) Sun@3:15p

(323) San Diego Chargers -6 Sun@12:00p

(325) Minnesota Vikings vs. (326) Arizona Cardinals Over 46½ Sun@3:05p

(327) New England Patriots -7 Sun@3:15p

Week 15 Preview

Unfortunately, I didn't have time to write previews for each game. You will notice a lot more statistics being published or about the same because I can't format it correctly. I spent a lot more time focusing on the last 3 games and their home and away splits. The biggest question about home and away splits are is it to small of a sample size? I wish someone had a way to weigh the points versus the defenses based on a home and away split. Last nights game was a winner with some interesting comments. The Saints didn't score their 24 points a game on the road because of a number of mistakes in the Bears territory. The Bears came closest to scoring their 27 points a game at home. Still, with decent weather both teams were able to help the cause for the over. I have also included a poll for Sunday night's game.

	Spread	O/U	Predicted	Off Avg	Def Avg	Projected
Buffalo (#26, 6-7)	9	41	16	22	21	21	Buffalo
NY Jets (#17, 8-5)	-9	41	25	27	23	24
Tampa Bay (#7, 9-4)	3	45	21	23	18	23
Atlanta (#10, 8-5)	-3	45	24	25	21	25
Seattle (#29, 2-11)	-1	42	22	18	26	24	Seattle
St Louis (#31, 2-11)	1	42	21	13	30	14
San Francisco (#25, 5-8)	7	42	18	22	25	20	San Francisco
Miami (#18, 8-5)	-7	42	24	21	20	24
San Diego (#22, 5-8)	-6	45	25	25	22	28	San Diego
Kansas City (#30, 2-11)	6	45	20	18	28	17
Washington (#15, 7-6)	-7	37	22	17	19	17
Cincinnati (#27, 1-11-1)	7	37	15	12	27	14	Cincinnati
Tennessee (#1, 12-1)	-3	45	24	26	14	21
Houston (#19, 6-7)	3	45	21	24	26	20	Under
Green Bay (#20, 5-8)	-1	46	23	27	25	28
Jacksonville (#24, 4-9)	1	46	22	19	23	24	Over
Detroit (#32, 0-13)	17	45	14	17	32	14
Indianapolis (#6, 9-4)	-17	45	31	23	20	30
Minnesota (#9, 8-5)	3	47	22	24	21	24
Arizona (#14, 8-5)	-3	47	25	29	25	28	Over
Pittsburgh (#4, 10-3)	3	34	16	22	14	20	Pittsburgh
Baltimore (#3, 9-4)	-3	34	19	24	15	21
Denver (#21, 8-5)	9	48	20	24	26	21
Carolina (#5, 10-3)	-9	48	29	25	20	28
New England (#16, 8-5)	-7	39	23	23	21	24	Patriots
Oakland (#28, 3-10)	7	39	16	14	23	14
NY Giants (#2, 11-2)	3	45	21	28	17
Dallas (#11, 8-5)	-3	45	24	24	22