Thursday, January 15, 2009

Conference Championship Preview

It has been a great playoffs run. Looking at these games I have a major problem with the over/under for each game. The math, reasoning and picks are below:

The Cardinals have been scoring 32 points over their last three and 30 points at home all season. The Eagles defense has been giving up 10 points a game over their last three. Those three teams were the Cowboys, Giants and Vikings all teams with major offensive problems. Sure the Eagles have a great blizting defense but you live by the sword you die by the sword. I have to give the Cardinals 28 points since its at home and they have been hot as of late. The Eagles have also been on fire offensively scoring 31 points over their last three but they have struggled on the road offensively. If you remove the Redskins and Bengals game the offensive numbers look a lot better on the road. I expect the Eagles to score 27 points, a good mid-point between their offense and the Cardinals defense. I love the over for this game, these teams combined for 68 points in the end of November and I expect big plays on both teams.
Teams Spread O/U Predicted Off Off 3 Def Def 3 Projected
Philadelphia (#5, 11-6-1) -4 49.5 26.75 25.8 31 17.4 10.3 27 Over
Arizona (#11, 11-7) 4 49.5 22.75 27.2 32.3 25.7 19.3 28

The Ravens Titans game was a bloodbath with a large number of players limping off at one point. As I was watching that game I made a mental note to take their opponent for this week's game. The problem is that Vegas seemed to have the same line of reasoning. The Ravens have been scoring 22-23 points a game in all three categories (season, last three and away). This is a lot higher than the Steelers 15 points a game at home. I see the Ravens scoring at least 15 points. Vegas thinks the Steelers will score 20 points. Despite the Ravens only allowing 9 points a game over their last three. The last time these two teams played it was 13-9. I think the Steelers will score 16. After seeing weather predictions and dealing with the Chicago weather I have to take the under.
Teams Spread O/U Predicted Off Off 3 Def Def 3
Baltimore (#1, 13-5) 6 34 14 23.6 22.3 14.6 8.7 15 Under
Pittsburgh (#2, 13-4) -6 34 20 22.5 26.7 14.5 18.3 16

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