Week 9 Preview

I completely missed the Tampa Bay versus Kansas City game. Rather than rushing the summary and making a panic pick I have gone one better, I have posted a poll to the right. Please pick who you would pick and feel free to list the reasons in the comments. Below are my predicted lines, compared to the BoDog lines and finally my picks. As always, I will post my actual bets over the weekend when I make them.


GB @ TEN
The Packers have an above average passing game with 7.1 yards an attempt. The Titans have a very good defense, the best passing defense in the league (5.2). I expect the Packers to score a little more than the 14 a game the Titans are giving up but not much more, I would give the Packers 16. The Titans have another average offense but their strength is running the ball, 4.3 yards an attempt. The Packers actually have a good defense but a horrible run defense, 4.9 yards an attempt. I expect the Titans to score the 23 a game the Packers are giving up. Of course, I am betting against the Titans because of their ATS record and since no one told me it was a bad idea. Titans -7

ARZ @ STL
The Cardinals have a top 5 passing offense but a pretty bad running game. The Rams have a horrible defense but have improved over the last 3 games only giving up 19 points a game. The Rams have been better at pass defense than run defense. I expect the Cardinals to score the 25 a game they score on the road. The Rams have been scoring 23 points a game over the last 3. Thats equal to what the Cardinals are giving up over the last 3, aided by a horrible pass defense. I expect the Rams to score 23. Cardinals -2

HOU @ MIN
The Texans are a hot team, scoring 31 points a game. The Vikings defense has been giving up a lot of points but their special teams have. The Vikings actually have a very good defense. I expect the Vikings to have their special teams problems solved and the Texans to only score 21 points. The Texans defense has improved over the last 3 games, only allowing 18 points a game. The Vikings offense, carried by a good running game is averaging 22 points a game. I expect the Vikings to score that number. Vikings -1

BAL @ CLE
The Ravnes have an average offense, based on a top 5 rushing game (143 game). The Browns have had trouble against the run and the pass on defense. I expect the Ravens to score the points they have been averaging and the same the Browns are allowing, 19 points. The Ravens have the #2 defense in the league and the top running defense. The Browns are just bad on offense and just a little bit better at running, the Ravens strength. I expect the Browns to score less then the Ravens are giving up (15.7) and only score 14 points. Ravens -5

JAC @ CIN
The Jaguars have an average offense, with the passing game a little bit better than the running game. The Bengals have a bad defense and a horrible pass defense. The Jaguars are averaging 20 points a game all year and over the last 3. I expect them to score 24 points against the Bengals defense. The Bengals have the second to worse offense in the league and can't pass or run the ball well. The Jaguars defense has also been pretty bad because of a number of injuries. The Bengals are averaging 10 on offense and the Jaguars 22 on defense. I will split the difference and give the Bengals 16 points. Jaguars -8

DET @ CHI
The Lions are the 5th worse offense, passing and running, across the board. The Bears have a top 10 defense. The Lions are averaging 16 points a game and I think they would be lucky to score this against the Bears. The Bears have been giving up 23 points a game over the last 3 due to all the injuries. I will give Lions 17 points this game. The Bears have an average offense but have been improving especially passing. They have been averaging 34 points a game on offense and 8.1 yards a passing attempt over the last 3. The Lions have only been allowing 21 points a game but 8.9 on a passing attempt. Thats not a good sign for them, but the Bears have been scoring on special teams and on defense. I expect them to only score 28 points. Bears -11

NYJ @ BUF
The Jets have a below average offense and the problem is passing the ball. They have actually been running the ball well, 4.6 yards an attempt. The Bills have an average defense but they have trouble stopping the run. The Jets are averaing 22 points a game on offense over the last 3 and the Bills are allowing 26 points a game over the last 3. I see the Jets running the ball well and scoring the 26 the Bills are allowing. The Bills have an average offense, on both the running passing part. The Jets also have an average defense, on both running and the passing part. I expect the Bills to score the 24 points a game they are averaging over the season. Jets -2

MIA @ DEN
The Dolphins have the second best offense in the league behind the second best passing offense, 8.0 yards an attempt. Even scarier they have improved to 9.6 yards an attempt over the last 3 games. Its surprising they are only scoring 22 points a game. The Broncos have a horrible defense and a horrible pass defense and a bad rush defense. I expect the Dolphins to score the 28 a game the Broncos are giving up. The Broncos have a good offense and a very good running game, 4.6 an attempt. The Dolphins have a good defense and a very good rushing defense, 3.7 yards an attempt. I expect the Broncos to score the 24 points a game the Dolphins have been giving up. Dolphins -4

PHI @ SEA
The Eagles have a top offense behind a top running and passing game. They are averaging 28 points a game over the season and the last 3 games. The Seahawks have a bad defense but a decent running defense. The Seahawks have been giving up 27 points a game on defense. I think its very reasonable to expect the Eagles to score 28 points on offense. The Seahawks offense is pretty bad and shocking that they can score 20 points a game. The Eagles have a good defense but are allowing 20 points a game. I think the Eagles problems are based on turnovers not going their way. I think the Seahawks will score 17 points this game, but I will give them their 3 points for home field. Eagles -7

ATL @ OAK
The Falcons have a top offense because of their running game, 4.8 yards an attempt. The Raiders have a bad defense and a horrible run defense, 4.5 yards an attempt. With this poor run defense I expect the Falcons to score the 25 points a game the Raiders are giving up. The Raiders have an ugly offense with nothing going well. Its amazing they are averaging 16 points a game. The Falcons defense has not been very good also, they are allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Raiders to get close to this number, giving them 20 points a game. Falcons -5

DAL @ NYG
I am passing on this game because of the Brad Johnson issue, the Cowboys looked very bad with him and it could get really ugly against the Giants. I expect the Giants to be a double digit favorite. Giants -10

NE @ IND
The Patriots have a poor offense but the #10 rushing game, behind 4.2 yards a game. The Colts have an average defense but a poor rushing defense, 4.2 yards a game. I expect the Patriots to score the 24 points a game they have been averaging over their last 3. The Colts have a decent offense but not the strength people thought they would be. The Patriots defense has been poor behind a horrible pass defense. This will probably be a problem for the Patriots. I expect the Colts to score their 22 points a game. With this being a big game for the Colts in their stadium I will give them 3 for home field. Colts -1

My Line	BoDog Line	My Bet
Titans -7	Titans -4.5	Packers
O/U 39	41
Cardinals -2	Cardinals -3
O/U 48	48.5
Vikings -1	Vikings -4.5	Texans
O/U 43	47
Ravens -5	Browns -1.5	Ravens
O/U 33	36.5
Jaguars -8	Jaguars -8
O/U 46	40	Over
Bears -11	Bears -13
O/U 45	43
Jets -2	Bills -5
O/U 50	41	Over
Dolphins -4	Dolphins -3.5	Dolphins
O/U 52	50
Eagles -7	Eagles -7
O/U 48	42.5	Over
Falcons -5	Falcons -3	Falcons
O/U 45	41
Giants -10	Giants -9
Colts -1	Colts -6	Patriots
O/U 45	44

Mid Season Overall Review

I am going through a review of the bets made over the past 8 weeks and wanted to post some information. As you can see I have had the most success in O/U and I will continue to bet these games when I see a big discrepancy between my estimates and the line. The Ravens have played better than most predictions and I have been a big fan so there is no shock that I am doing well on their games. I can't easily explain the success with Browns and Vikings picks. The Dolphins are another team playing better than early season predictions. Obviously, a major problem are Colts, Giants, Raiders and Titan games (3-17). With the Titans that means I have bet against them 4 times since they are undefeated ATS. The Colts have not lived up to expectations. I guess the question is, should I just stop betting on all 4 of these teams? As I have said in past posts I am going to be against the Titans because they have done so well ATS and need to revert to a mean (even if its 3-5 over the next 8 weeks ATS). I am open to thought on what to do with the three other teams.

	Win	Loss	Push
Overall Record	33	43	4
Over/Under	5	4	1
ATS	28	39	3
Ravens Total	5	1	1
Browns Total	4	1	0
Vikings Total	4	1	0
Dolphins Total	4	2	0
Colts Total	1	4	0
Giants Total	1	4	0
Raiders Total	1	5	0
Titans Total	0	4	1

Week 8 Sunday Results and MNF Preview

Finally, a good week picking games with a 17.95% weekly return. Unfortunately, it took 8 weeks. The difference was focusing on the specific rankings of running and pass defense. In the past I had a good idea of where a team ranked in yards per attempt but this week I had the actual rankings.

The Titans are 6-0 ATS and probably a great bet against them. So with a good Sunday result and feeling like a man I am going to preview the Monday Night Football game.

IND @ TEN
The Titans have the #1 ranked passing defense allowing only 5.2 yards an attempt. The Colts have only been an average passing team this season. I expect the Colts to score a little more than the 12 points the Titans have been giving up. I think the Colts will score 14 points this game. The Titans offense is powered behind a top 5 running game, 4.5 yards a game. This has been a weakness of the Colts defense, allowing 4.4 yards a game. They have improved over the last 3 weeks, but they are still allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Titans to score 21 points in this game. Titans -7

The Titans are only 3 point favorites but there is no way I am betting on them since they are 6-0 ATS, so I will pass and be happy with a good week.

(200) Baltimore Ravens -8 (-105) Sun@11:00a	Win
(211) St. Louis Rams +8 Sun@11:00a	Win
(213) Arizona Cardinals vs. (214) Carolina Panthers Over 43½ Sun@11:00a	Win
(217) Cleveland Browns +7 (-105) Sun@2:05p	Win
(221) Seattle Seahawks vs. (222) San Francisco 49ers Over 41½ Sun@2:15p	Win
(215) Washington Redskins vs. (216) Detroit Lions Under 42 Sun@11:00a	Push
(205) Buffalo Bills vs. (206) Miami Dolphins Over 42 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(209) Atlanta Falcons +9 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(227) Cincinnati Bengals +9 Sun@2:05p	Loss
Record: 5-3-1
Weekly Return: 17.95%
Cumulative Return: -92.27%

Week 8 Actual Bets

(200) Baltimore Ravens -8 (-105) Sun@11:00a

(205) Buffalo Bills vs. (206) Miami Dolphins Over 42 Sun@11:00a

(209) Atlanta Falcons +9 Sun@11:00a

(211) St. Louis Rams +8 Sun@11:00a

(213) Arizona Cardinals vs. (214) Carolina Panthers Over 43½ Sun@11:00a

(215) Washington Redskins vs. (216) Detroit Lions Under 42 Sun@11:00a

(217) Cleveland Browns +7 (-105) Sun@2:05p

(221) Seattle Seahawks vs. (222) San Francisco 49ers Over 41½ Sun@2:15p

(227) Cincinnati Bengals +9 Sun@2:05p

Week 8 Preview

The following is the week 8 preview. If I don't have a good week, I am going to completely change the ways I look at the games next week. The new way would be working backwards. No picture this week, but the good news is the preview is up before Friday. I will post my actual bets either Saturday or Sunday.

Week 8
Sun, Oct 26
OAK @ BAL
The Raiders offense has actually decreased in productivity as the season has gone on. Their last 3 games have been horrible. The injury to McFadden has played a part but they are only averaging 12 points a game over the last 3. The Ravens pass defense has started to slip but they are still the best. I expect the Raiders to score 10 points. The Ravens continue to have a poor offense, not being able to run or pass very well. They are only averaging 13 points a game on offense. The Raiders defense has been very bad and they can't stop the run. I expect the Ravens to score close to the Raiders average of 25 points game, I will give them 24. Ravens -10
ARI @ CAR
This match up is an offense scoring 32 points a game against a defense only giving up 11 points. The Panthers are also very strong at stoppping the pass. I expect the Panthers to give up the points they gave up against SD & TB, 25 points. The Panthers offense has been powered behind their passing a weakness of the Cardinals defense. The Cardinals are allowing 32 points a game on defense. I expect the Panthers to score 28 points. Panthers -3
TB @ DAL
Tampa Bay has a very good offense behind a 4.5 yard attempt run for the season but only 3.9 the last 3 games. Their passing offense has improved over the season, due to Garcia now playing. The Cowboys have a ton of injuries and their defense has been bad all year. I expect Tampa Bay to score the 28 a game Dallas is giving up. Who knows who will play for the Cowboys at QB. Tampa Bay has a great defense as usual. I expect Dalls to only score 21 points on offense, lower than their average. I will also give them the 3 points for home field. Tampa Bay -4
WAS @ DET
The Redskins have a great offense when it comes to yards but not when it comes to scoring, only 20 a game. Bring on the Lions defense and their 38 points a game over the last 3. I think the Redskins will score a few more points than their average but I am only giving them 24. The Redskins defense has been very good and its almost amaazing they are giving up 16 points a game. The Lions are only averaging 13 points a game on offense and that will be a stretch against the Redskins, put them down for 10. I will give the Lions 3 points for home field because they have to score some points even by mistake. Redskins -11
BUF @ MIA
The Bills offense has been efficient behind a 7.7 yard attempt on pass plays. This has been the weakness of the Dolphins. I expect the Bills to match their 25 points a game. The Dolphins have brought the wildcat to the NFL but they actually have scored less points in the last 3 games. The Bills have hard a hard time stopping the run and the Dolphins have been running well. I expect the Dolphins to score 22 points. I will also give them 3 points for the home game. Dolphins 0
STL @ NE
The Patriots defense is giving up a lot of yards but not very many points, less than 20 a game. The Rams offense has improved over the last 3 games. The problems with the Rams is they are a good running team and that’s the strength of the Patriots. I expect the Rams to score the Patriots 19 points a game. The Rams are giving up 100 yards less a game over the last 3. They are still giving up 21 points a game right at the Patriots average. I expect the Patriots to run against the poor run defense of the Rams. I would give the Patriots 3 points for home field. Patriots -5
SD @ NO
The Chargers are averaging 27 points a game but only 18 over the last 3. The passing game has taken a hit with the Chambers injury and LT injury. I expect the Chargers to score the 21 points a game the Saints are giving up. The Saints offense is also slowing down thanks to injuries and the Chargers defense is improving. Unfortuantely, this game is being played overseas and I have no idea how either team will react, so pass.
KC @ NYJ
The Chiefs have the worst offense in the NFL and they are sitting LJ for another week.The Jets have an average defense that is very good against the run. I expect the Chiefs to score their 14 points a game. The Jets might have Favre but the best part of their offense is their running game. The worst part of the Chiefs defense is their running game, almost 5.7 yards an attempt. I expect the Jets to score the 28 a game the Chiefs are giving up. Jets -14
ATL @ PHI
Andy Reid has never loss a game after the bye week. The Falcons offense has been very good behind a strong running and passing game. They are averaging 23 points a game, the Eagles are giving up the same over the last 3 weeks. So I expect the Falcons to score 24. The Eagles continue to have a very good offense behind passing and crappy running. They have been averaging 28 points a game. The Falcons haven't been giving up a lot of points compared to the yards, 390 over the last 3. I expect the Eagles to get their 28 a game. Eagles -4
CLE @ JAC
The Browns continue to have problems on offense but they have improved over the last 3 games, now averaging 22 points a game. The Jaguars are giving up 23 points a game but allowing 4.7 yards a run. I expect the Browns to only score 21 points. The Jaguars have been average on offense and the Browns have been average on defense. Even though they are only allowing 18 points a game on defense they are allowing 4.8 a rush. I expect the Jaguars to score their average of 21. Jaguars 0
CIN @ HOU
The Bengals have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and the Texans have one of the worse defenses. I would add the 14 points a game the Bengals are scoring with the 30 a game the Texans are allowing and divide by two. That would give the Bengals 22 points. The Texans are average on offense and the Bengals are also average. The Texans are running for 4.4 yards an attempt exactly what the Bengals are giving up. So expect a big ground game from the Texans and they should score their average of 28 over the last 3 games. Texans -6
NYG @ PIT
This game pits the top offense of the Giants against a very good defense of the Steelers. The difference is almost 200 yards between the offense and defense. This makes the game very tough to call because you have to pick who is going to win. I expect this game to be close to a pick 'em and would only bet if one team was favored by more than 5.
SEA @ SF
The Seahawks are averaging 4.8 yards a rush on offense but under 100 yards a game, I would blame their very poor defense. I expect the Seahawks to score close to the 28 points a game the 49ers are giving up, they should have a chance to run more this game. The 49ers are also running beftter than most teams but the Seahawks have a good run defense and a very poor pass defense. I expect the 49ers to score the 30 points a game the Seahawks are giving up over the last 3. 49ers -2
Mon, Oct 27
IND @ TEN

My Line	BoDog	My Bet
Ravens -10	Ravens -8	Ravens
O/U 34	O/U 36
Panthers -3	Panthers -4
O/U 53	O/U 43	Over
Tampa Bay -4
O/U 49
Redskins -11	Redskins -8
O/U 34	O/U 42	Under
Dolphins 0	Dolphins +2
O/U 47	O/U 42	Over
Patriots -5	Patriots -7.5	Rams
O/U 40	O/U 42.5
Jets -14	Jets -14
O/U 42	O/U 39
Eagles -4	Eagles -9	Falcons
O/U 52	O/U 45.5
Jaguars 0	Jaguars -7	Browns
O/U 42	O/U 42
Texans -6	Texans -9	Bengals
O/U 50	O/U 45.5
49ers -2	49ers -5
O/U 58	O/U 41	Over

Week 7 Results

Things continue to go poorly for the picks and its obvious that the current system is not working. I keep hoping that we find a random reader with enough free time to do some hard core analysis on the picks. It looks like I might have to do the dirty work myself. I think the Bears game was a perfect blue print of what I should be doing. I was actually within a point of the line but I thought the Bears were playing better than their stats showed and they got the breaks for the win. It seems simple but I need to put more emphasis on how the teams are actually playing and not 100% on the stats. The other change is to grab some lines earlier in the week instead of later. Sure you might get burned by the occasional injury but I can't tell you the number of times a line has opened further away from my guess only to gradually get closer. If you look at the number of games I loss this week a number of them where under 2 points. On to the disappointing results:

(411) Baltimore Ravens vs. (412) Miami Dolphins Over 36½ Sun@11:00a	Win
(416) Chicago Bears -3 (-130) Sun@11:00a	Win
(425) Cleveland Browns +7½ (-115) Sun@2:15p	Win
(427) Indianapolis Colts -2½ Sun@2:15p	Loss
(406) Kansas City Chiefs +9½ (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(410) Cincinnati Bengals +10 (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(417) New Orleans Saints +3 (-120) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(419) San Francisco 49ers +11 (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(423) New York Jets -3½ (+105) Sun@2:15p	Loss

Record: 3-6
Weekly Return: -38.2%
Cumulative Return: -93.45%

Week 7 Actual Bets

(406) Kansas City Chiefs +9½ (-115) Sun@11:00a

(410) Cincinnati Bengals +10 (-115) Sun@11:00a

(411) Baltimore Ravens vs. (412) Miami Dolphins Over 36½ Sun@11:00a

(416) Chicago Bears -3 (-130) Sun@11:00a

(417) New Orleans Saints +3 (-120) Sun@11:00a

(419) San Francisco 49ers +11 (-115) Sun@11:00a

(423) New York Jets -3½ (+105) Sun@2:15p

(425) Cleveland Browns +7½ (-115) Sun@2:15p

(427) Indianapolis Colts -2½ Sun@2:15p

Week 7 Preview

I apologize for the delay in posting a preview. I know everyone enjoys reading this during the work week and sticking it to the man. Unfortunately, the man is sticking it to me by blocking my gambling/football sites. I have made a few changes to my schedule and I should be able to post this on Thursday or Friday going forward. I would like to recommend the link to the right for Stock Lemon. He has been doing a great job at his football picks and I would suggest checking them out. Its a great website and he touches on all sports. The previews and picks are below:

Week 7
Sun, Oct 19
SD @ BUF
The Chargers are averaging almost 30 points a game this season but only 23 points the last 3 games, this is due to the injuries of LT. The good news is their defense is only allowing 15 points a game over the last 3 games. The Bills are allowing 26 a game over the last 3 games and I see the Chargers matching that. The Bills have been running well and the Chargers have had a problem stopping the run. I see the Bills scoring thier average of 24 a game. Since the Chargers are going from the west coast to the east coast I am giving the Bills 4 points for home field. Bills -2
NO @ CAR
The Saints have improved their defense over the last three games, but it probably has something to do with their opponents (Oak, Min and SF). The problem is the Saints defense can't stop the run and the Panthers have a beat up offensive line. The Panthers strength has been passing. I expect the Panthers to score 21. The Panthers have had a great defense but their opponets have been really poor on offense. I see the Saints scoring 28. Give the Panthers the 3 for home field. Saints -4
MIN @ CHI
The Bears offense is averaging aaround 25 points a game and its behind a strong passing game. This is key because the Vikings continue to be very good against the run. I exppect the Bears to score 21 points behind an improving Orton (yes I just wrote that sentence). The Bears have also been pretty good against the run and thats the Vikings strength, though they have suffered the last 3 weeks. I just don't see the Vikings scoring much more than the Bears defense, so I expect 17 points this game for them. Bears -4
PIT @ CIN
The Steelers have been struggling on offense, unable to run the ball and only averaing 21 points a game and 18 over the last 3 weeks. The Bengals defense hasn't been that bad considering the poor field position the offense has put them in. I expect the Steelers to score 21. The Bengals are horrible on offense, 15 points a game and thats around the Steelers average. I expect the Bengals to be lucky to score 14 points. Steelers -7
TEN @ KC
The Titans are 5-0 ATS, I am going to bet against them until the get closer to .500 ATS. Chiefs.
BAL @ MIA
The Ravens are still averaging 5.2 yards a run over 3 games and all season. They are just running the ball less which is why they have averaged 11 points over the last 3 games. The Dolphins can't stop the run so I expect them to give up their 21 a game. The Dolphins are averaging 28 a game over the last 3 and racking up 400 yards a game. The question is can the Wildcat fool the Ravens defense. The Ravens are giving up 22 a game over the last 3 so I will split the difference and give the Dolphins 25. Dolphins -3
SF @ NYG
The Giants offense is averaging 28 points a game but have played some very poor defenses. The 49ers are giving up 28 points a game. The Giants are coming off a Monday Night Football game, so I expect 26 points on offense. The 49ers are scoring 23 points a game on offense. The Giants defense is giving up 21 points a game on defense but have been pretty bad at both the pass and run. I expect the 49ers to score 21. I will give the Giants their homefield advantage of 3 points. Giants -8
DAL @ STL
The Cowboys have a number of injuries and a player suspension that makes this game harder to call. Can the Cowboys match their 26 points a game without Romo (maybe) and no Felix Jones. They also added Roy Williams, who has been horrible all season. I expect the Cowboys to be 10 point favorites but I don't want to bet on this game at all. Cowboys -10
DET @ HOU
Both of these teams have covered the spread once this season. Both of these defenses have been very poor allowing 32 points a game during the season. The Lions have improved a little bit over the last 3 games. Any improvement on Defense has been met with worse results on offense for the Lions. Meanwhile, the Texans are starting to improve on offense. I consider both of these defenses poor and the Texans offense a lot better, they are averaging 18 points a game more than the Lions over the last 3. I say you split the difference. Texans -9
IND @ GB
I asked when, if ever, the Colts offense would return. Well last week they finally looked like what we thought they were. They are now averaging 28 points a game on offense over the last three behind a lot of passing. The Packers are allowing 25 points a game behind a 4.7 yard per run attempt. Their injured defense could have a very tough time defending the run and than dealing with Manning. I expect the Colts to score 31 points. The Packers offense has been slowing down and they continue to have major running problems but should improve that against a poor run defense for the Colts. I expect the Packers to get their 24 points a game. I will give the Packers their 3 points for home field and its not turf which could hur the Colts. Colts -4
NYJ @ OAK
The Jets are averaging 37 points a game on offense but only 311 yards a game and their average per attempt has dropped over the season. This means they are getting great field position but at some point this has to stop. I don't know if the Raiders are the team to stop them. I expect the Jets to only score 24 points a game and not get all the breaks they have been receiving. The Raiders have been averaging 14 points a game on offense over the last 3. They are still running very well but the Jets have only been allowing 2.7 yards a rush over the last 3. This might be due to teams just passing on them because of a weak pass defense. I only expect the Raiders to score 14 but give them 3 for home field and a cross country game. Jets -7
CLE @ WAS
The Browns played their best game of the season last week and the Redskins played their worse. The Browns are only averaging 22 points a game over the last three. They are having passing problems and the Redskins are very good against the run. I expect the Browns to score 20. The Redskins are averaging 22 points a game behind a great running game but Portis is questionable. The Browns are only allowing 18 points game. Portis is to big of a question mark so I will just pass on this game. Until I see the Redskins are huge favorites. Redskins -3
SEA @ TB
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS and the Seahawks are 1-4 ATS. So I expect Vegas to over compensate for the poor records. Seattle over the last 3 have been running great and scoring 20 points a game. Tampa Bay is stopping the run very well and only allowing 14 points a game. This is bad news for an offense on a backup QB without any healthy WR's. The Seahawks will be lucky to score 14. Tampa Bay has been scoring 23 points a game and Seattle has been allowing 28 a game. Tampa has been running well and the Seahawks have been having a hard time stopping the run. I expect Tampa Bay to score 24. Tampa Bay -10
Mon, Oct 20
DEN @ NE
My Line	BoDog	My Pick
Bills -2	Bills 0
O/U 50	O/U 44.5
Saints -4	Saints +3	Saints
O/U 49	O/U 45
Bears -4	Bears -3	Bears
O/U 38	O/U 38
Steelers -7	Steelers -10	Bengals
O/U 35	O/U 35
	Chiefs +9	Chiefs
Dolphins -3	Dolphins -3
O/U 46	O/U 37	Over
Giants -8	Giants -10.5	49ers
O/U 47	O/U 47
Cowboys -10
Texans -9	Texans -9.5
Colts -4	Colts -2.5	Colts
O/U 55	O/U 47
Jets -7	Jet -3	Jets
O/U 38	O/U 41
Redskins -3	Redskins -7.5	Browns
Bucs -10	Bucs -11
O/U 38	O/U 38

Week 6 Results

I figured out the biggest mistake last week was not spreading out the bets, I will make sure to do at least 8 games going forward. The week wasn't great but at least I got a few games right.

(210) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1½ Sun@11:00a	Win
(211) Detroit Lions +13½ (-115) Sun@11:00a	Win
(214) Atlanta Falcons +3 Sun@11:00a	Win
(215) Miami Dolphins +3 (-120) Sun@11:00a	Win
(203) Oakland Raiders +245 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(205) Baltimore Ravens +170 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(207) Cincinnati Bengals +9½ (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(218) Washington Redskins -14 (-105) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(222) San Francisco 49ers +175 Sun@2:15p	Loss

Record: 4-5
Weekly Return: -16.2%
Cumulative Return: -89.4%

Week 6 Bets

(203) Oakland Raiders +245 Sun@11:00a

(205) Baltimore Ravens +170 Sun@11:00a

(207) Cincinnati Bengals +9½ (-115) Sun@11:00a

(210) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1½ Sun@11:00a

(211) Detroit Lions +13½ (-115) Sun@11:00a

(214) Atlanta Falcons +3 Sun@11:00a

(215) Miami Dolphins +3 (-120) Sun@11:00a

(218) Washington Redskins -14 (-105) Sun@11:00a

(222) San Francisco 49ers +175 Sun@2:15p

Week 6 Preview

Well things are bad but hopefully we will find a way to profit. I am not putting my picks down just yet because I have been drinking my stock market sorrows away. For better or worse I am very far apart on my thoughts and the actual line, I can not tell if that is a good thing or a bad thing. So what follows are my predictions of the line of course before checking them out:







Week 6
Sun, Oct 12
CHI @ ATL
These teams are equal on offense around 24 points a game but the Falcons are averaging 36 a game at home. This home offensive explosion for the Falcons is powered by a high power running offense (6.5 home). Fortunately for the Bears the running defense has been pretty good (3.8 game). I think the Falcons will be lucky to score 24 a game. The Bears aoffense has actually succeeded from passing the ball, with 206 yards a game and a 6.6 average per attempt. The Falcons have been weak against the pass and the run. Its surprising they are only allowing 21 points a game. This game looks to be a pick 'em with the Falcons getting 3 for homefield. If the Bears are getting any points I am taking them. Atlanta -3
MIA @ HOU
Both of these offenses are equal on their season and last three game numbers. The difference is on defense. The Texans are allowing 32.5 points a game this season and 30.7 in the last 3 games. The Dolphins are passing and running well but they seem to have a problem putting points on the board,. I am going to split the difference and give them 26 on offense. The Texans are averaging 21 points a game behind a strong running game. The Dolphins have a very good run defense and a poor pass defense. The Texans should manage 21 points this game. I like the Texans they are the best 0-4 team possibly ever, so i will probably take the points. Miami -5
BAL @ IND
Who would believe these offenses are equal in scoring points this season. I know some of you have questioned my love for the Ravens but they are allowing 2.9 yards a run and 4.4 yards a pass, for 14 points a game. Just like in the Matrix, just because you think you are eating a steak doesn't mean you are. Just because you expect the Colts offense to score a ton of points doesn't mean it will happen. I give the Ravens defense the advantage and say they hold them to 14 points. The Ravens offense has been the problem and its suprising they can average 153 yards running on 3.8 yards a rush. The Colots have a horrible run defense and that has contributed to their 23.4 a game. I see the Ravens gettings 20 this game. You have to give the Colts their 3 points for home field advantage. Baltimore -3
DET @ MIN
The Lions offense is averaging 16 points a game and its surprising they can score that much. The Vikings continue to have a great run defense and a below average pass defense. The Lions will be lucky to score 16 a game. The Lions defense is horrible, over 400 yards a game and 37 points. I expect the Vikings score a few more points than there average of 20, about 24. The Lions have not won against the spread yet, so I am taking them. Minnesota -8
OAK @ NO
The Raiders are a perfectly balanced offensive team, 155 running and passing. Their average yards per attempt are similar to what the Saints and their 26 points a game give up. I expect the Raiders to score 24 points a game. The Saints offense is averaging almost 28 points a game behind a lot of passing and a horrible running attack. The Raiders are decent against the pass but I expect D'Angelo Hall to have a horrible game. So I expect the Saints to hit their 28 a game. New Orleans -4
CIN @ NYJ
The Bengals are 0-5 ATS and they are without Palmer. They are only averaing 15 points a game on offense which is a lot lower than the 29 a game the Jets are giving up. The Jets can't stop the pass but the Bengals can't do anything right. I expect the Bengals to score 21 points on offense. The Jets offense really hasn't been that good, I am surprised they have scored 29 a game. I expect the Bengals defense to hold them to their defensive average of 24 a game. I will give the Jets their 3 points for homefield and Favre. Jets -6
CAR @ TB
These teams both average 22.8 points a game, the Panthers behind a great passing offense and the Bucs behind a great running offense. Both of these numbers are on attempts. The Panthers defense is even better than the Bucs by almost 5 points. The Panthers defense is even better over the last 3 games. They have also been against KC, ATL and MIN. This game has pick 'em written all over it. Give TB their -3 for homefield. TB -3
STL @ WAS
The Rams are another team that is 0-4 against the spread. The Rams are only averaing 11 points a game and Washington is allowing 20 points a game. I would expect the Rams to score 12 points a game if they are lucky. The Redskins average 22 points a game behind a strong running game. The Rams defense sucks, they can't stop anything. I expect the Redskins to score 30 points a game. That line is obviously ridiculous. Washington -18
JAC @ DEN
The Jaguars are averaging 20 points a game on offense and the Broncos are allowing 26 a game. The Broncos defense has been bad at everything so I expect the Jaguars to get to that 26. The Broncos are averaging 30 points a game and almost the same average that the Jaguars age giving up. So expect the Broncos to get their 30. Denver -4
DAL @ ARI
Both of these offenses are equal on their average points a game, expect the Cardinals have a lot lower average in both. Their defenses are both allowing the same amount of points but against the Cardinals are allowing more per attempt. I pick this game even but the reality is the Cowboys will have more fans at this game. Henceforth, Dallas -3.
PHI @ SF
The difference in these two teams is the defense. The 49ers are allowing almost 6 more points a game and a worse rushing and passing defense. Typical Eagles, they can't run but they pass well. The Eagles offense has underperformed the last three weeks and I would blame that on the Westbrook injury. That tells me this a pure pick 'em game. I'll give the Eagles a point. Philadelphia -1
GB @ SEA
The Packers offense is slowing down, their last 3 games is worse than their overall. Blame it on injuries but they are more a 20 point a game offense, their running game is falling apart. Fortunately, Seattle can't stop anything, allowing 30 points a game. I still think with the Rodgers injury the Packers are lucky to score 21. I can't believe this but the Packers are giving up 28 a game the last three weeks and the injuries keep piling up. The Seahawks are still struggling on offense. I think they hit their last 3 weeks average of 24. Seattle -3
NE @ SD
The Patriots are 3-1 despite giving up and scoring the exact same points per game. The Chargers are scoring more and giving up less points (by four a game) and are 2-3. The last three games are even worse for the Patriots. Both teams are giving up the same on defense but the Padres are scoring 8 more a game. Split the difference and you get the, jesus I am so drunk I said Padres, I meant Chargers 4. San Diego -4
Mon, Oct 13
NYG @ CLE
Byes: Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Titans
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My Line
Atlanta -3 Atlanta +3
Miami -5 Miami +3
Baltimore -3 Baltimore +4
Minnesota -8 Minnesota -13.5
New Orleans -4 New Orleans -7
Jets -6 Jets -9
TB -3 TB -1
Washington -18 Washington -14
Denver -4 Denver -3.5
Dallas -3 Dallas -5.5
Philadelphia -1 Philadelphia -5
Seattle -3 Seattle -3
San Diego -4 San Diego -5

Week 5 NFL Review

Before this week, I was joking that my results were at least better than the stock market. I than went on to have my own crash. Much like Jesse Livermore its time to rebuild my fortune. I could blame it on injuries: Griese, Edwards and Chambers. I could blame it on two teams not even showing up and having their starting QBs pulled: Lions and Seahawks. Or a really crappy call on roughing the passer that gave the Titans the win.

Some of these excuses may be reasonable but the truth is the whole point of betting on multiple games was suppose to spread these risks out. Just like securitizing mortgages was suppose to spread the risk out. The problem is crappy picks are crappy picks and thats what it comes down to. When you have a week as bad as this one, I am a true believer of just burning the tape and going at it next week. It may also pay for everyone else to do the exact opposite of what I say.

(408) Baltimore Ravens +3 (-125) Sun@11:00a					Push
(409) Chargers vs. (410) Dolphins Over 45 (-105) Sun@11:00a					Loss
(415) Bears vs. (416) Lions Over 45½ Sun@11:00a					Loss
(419) Seattle Seahawks +7½ (-130) Sun@11:00a					Loss
(421) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170 Sun@2:05p					Loss
(424) San Francisco 49ers +150 Sun@2:15p					Loss
(425) Buffalo Bills +1½ Sun@2:15p					Loss

Record: 0-6-1
Weekly Return: -85.42%
Cumulative Return: -87.4%

Week 5 Preview

This week I will not be betting on any game that I called the line correctly, plus or minus a point. I am only betting on the over/under where its a large difference between my projection and the actual line. I called 6 games lines correctly. I decided to shy away from the Bears spread because I have performed poorly in their games this year and I thought the over/under was more attractive. Its a crazy week because they are a number of questions at QB for teams. I am avoiding all of these games because of the question marks. Below are the games, sans Monday Night Football.

Week 5
Sun, Oct 05
TEN @ BAL
These two teams are a combined 7-0 ATS. Loyal readers know I am a big fan of Baltimore but this is tough because if the teams weren't playing each other I would probably bet against both of them. These teams are about equal on offense with the Titans a little bit better passing per attempt. The Ravens are allowing 186 yards a game, it hasn't been against the best offenses but they are NFL teams. The Titans have allowed a lot more yards but less points. These teams are pretty equal and the game is probably going to come down to a turnover or two. I wouldn't bet on the over/under because I see one team having a few turnovers and then self destructing, unfortunately I don't know which team. Give the Ravens the advantage since its thier home. Baltimore -3
CHI @ DET
The offense of the Bears looks very similar to that of the Lions. The Bears average a few more points a game because of special teams and turnovers that have gone in their favor. The Bears defense is averaging 20 points a game and that’s in line with what the Lions are scoring. I feel comfortable with the Lions scoring 20 points. The question is do the Bears score their 24 a game or the 38 the Lions are giving up. The Lions can't stop the run or the pass and the Bears are a well balanced team. Still its the Bears, so I will error on the side of caution and go with 30 points. I will give the Lions 3 points for hosting the game. O/U 54 Bears -7
ATL @ GB
I am going to assume Rodgers is playing and if he doesn't play I will pass on the game. The Falcons are really good at running the ball, against bad teams on astro turf. The Packers have a poor run defense (5.2) but they don't play on turf. So I see Atlanta scoring 17 points a game. The Packers have been unable to run the ball but they have had success passing, the Falcons defense hasn't stopped anyone. I see the Packers getting their average of 28. O/U 45 Packers -11
KC @ CAR
The Chiefs are a bad team with a low scoring offense and a poor defense. Their defense has allowed 400 yards a game, its surprising they have only given up 21 points. I see the Panthers scoring more than their 23 a game because of their ability to pass the ball and I expect them to score 25-28. The Panthers defense has been strong only allowing 17.5 a game, close to KC's 16.2 points a game. Plus there is another game of tape on Huard, so I will put them at 15 and the low end of the Panthers range. O/U 40 Panthers -10
SD @ MIA
The Chargers offense is averaging 35 points a game. The problem is they are allowing 28 points a game. The Dolphins have an absolutely horrible defense, they are allowing 8.2 yards a pass attempt with the Chargers averaging 9.0 an attempt. This favors the Chargers scoring their average of 35 points. The Dolphins came out with a new offense but now its on tape for the Chargers. The Dolphins are averaging the exact yard attempts that the Chargers are giving up, so I expect them to score the 28 a game. O/U 63 Chargers -7
WAS @ PHI
Some people argue that either of these teams could win any other division in the NFL other than the NFL east. The Eagles can't run (3.5 att) and no one can run against them (2.6). In fact the Eagles defense has been great only allowing 245 yards a game. I think the Redskins will have a tough time averaging 21.5 a game and look for them to score 17 a game. The Eagles have average 28 points a game and the Redskins have allowed 20 a game. I see the Eagles splitting the difference and scoring 24. O/U 37 Eagles -7
SEA @ NYG
The Giants come off a bye week which is usually a positive but they are without their top WR for the game because of suspension. Seattle would love to have just a healthy WR. Suprisingly both these teams are averaging around 26 points a game on offense. The problem is the Seahawks are allowing 27 points a game on defense. Their big weakness is passing defense and I don't expect the Giants to pass as well without Burress. So I expect the Giants to only score 21 points this game. The Seahawks have a great running offense and their passing offense should improve. I expect them to score more than the 14 a game the Giants are allowing. I would put them at 17 a game. O/U 38 Giants -4
IND @ HOU
There offenses are exactly the same both averaging about 18 points a game and 313 yards. Both of these defenses have allowed 340 yards a game, but the Texans have allowed 11 points a game more. I see this game as a very close game, with the Colts getting a few points. Colts -2
TB @ DEN
TB has averaged 25 points a game on offense behind a strong running game. The Broncos are allowing 35 points a game on defense behind a poor pass defense (9.8). It looks like their run defense is decent because teams are passing for 400 yards a game. I see TB scoring 28 points this game. The Broncos offense is scoring 33.2 points a game behind both a strong passing and rushing attack. The TB defense is very strong against the run and has been strong against the pass, only allowing 20 points a game. I expect the Broncos to score only 24 points a game. I do see them getting 3 points for the homefield. O/U 52 TB -1
BUF @ ARI
Both of these offenses have averaged 27 points a game but the Cardinals have averaged almost 60 yards a game more and have a better passing offense. Unfortunately, they have a QB who has a major fumbling problem. The Cardinals defense is allowing 26 points a game and even more yards an attempt than the Bills are averaging. So I expect the Bills to score 28. The Bills defense has been very strong only allowing 16 points a game and having a strong passing defense. I see the Cardinals scoring 21 points a game. O/U 49 Bills -7
NE @ SF
The Patriots defense has allowed 20 points a game and the run defense has been a major problem with 5 yards an attempt. This is the strength of the 49ers and I see them getting their average of 24 points a game. The Patriots have been struggling on offense only scoring 16 points a game a little worse than the 24 the 49ers are giving up. I will split the difference and give the Patriots 20 points a game. O/U 44 49ers -4
CIN @ DAL
Believe it or not these two teams are equal on defense allowing 22 points a game. The problem is the Cowboys are scoring 30 points a game on offense and the Bengals are only scoring 13 points a game. That’s a 17 point difference and Palmer might not even play. I am not betting on this game because of the Palmer question but I see the Cowboys winning big. Cowboys -17
PIT @ JAC
The Steelers are another team with QB questions. Both of these offenses are averaging 19 points a game but Jac is averaging 50 yards more a game. The problem for Jac is that the Steelers are only allowing 74 yards a game (2.9 attempt) and that’s the Jac strength. So I expect Jac to only score 14 points. The Steelers, assuming Ben plays, are passing well and thats the weakness of Jac defense. So I expect Pitt to score 21 a game, what Jac is giving up. With the injury to Ben I will give Jac the homefield advantage points. Pitt -4
Mon, Oct 06
MIN @ NO
My Line	Bodog Line	My Pick
Baltimore -3	Baltimore +3	Baltimore 3
Bears -7	Bears -3.5
Bears/Lions 54	44.5	Bears/Lions OVER
Packers -11
Packers/Falcons 45
Panthers -10	Panthers -10
Panthers/KC 40	38.5
Chargers -7	Chargers -7
SD/MIA 63	45	SD/MIA OVER
Eagles -7	Eagles -6
Redskings/PHI 37	42.5
Giants -4	Giants -7.5	Seahawks +7.5
Seahawks/NYG 38	43.5
Colts -2	Colts -3
TB -1	TB +3.5	TB Moneyline
TB/Broncos 52	48
Bills -7	Bills 0	Bills 0
Bills/Cardinals 49	44.5
49ers -4	49ers +3	49ers Moneyline
Patriots/49ers 44	41
Cowboys -17	Cowboys -17
Pittsburgh -4	Pittsburgh +4