Thursday, October 23, 2008

Week 8 Preview

The following is the week 8 preview. If I don't have a good week, I am going to completely change the ways I look at the games next week. The new way would be working backwards. No picture this week, but the good news is the preview is up before Friday. I will post my actual bets either Saturday or Sunday.

Week 8

Sun, Oct 26

OAK @ BAL

The Raiders offense has actually decreased in productivity as the season has gone on. Their last 3 games have been horrible. The injury to McFadden has played a part but they are only averaging 12 points a game over the last 3. The Ravens pass defense has started to slip but they are still the best. I expect the Raiders to score 10 points. The Ravens continue to have a poor offense, not being able to run or pass very well. They are only averaging 13 points a game on offense. The Raiders defense has been very bad and they can't stop the run. I expect the Ravens to score close to the Raiders average of 25 points game, I will give them 24. Ravens -10
ARI @ CAR

This match up is an offense scoring 32 points a game against a defense only giving up 11 points. The Panthers are also very strong at stoppping the pass. I expect the Panthers to give up the points they gave up against SD & TB, 25 points. The Panthers offense has been powered behind their passing a weakness of the Cardinals defense. The Cardinals are allowing 32 points a game on defense. I expect the Panthers to score 28 points. Panthers -3
TB @ DAL

Tampa Bay has a very good offense behind a 4.5 yard attempt run for the season but only 3.9 the last 3 games. Their passing offense has improved over the season, due to Garcia now playing. The Cowboys have a ton of injuries and their defense has been bad all year. I expect Tampa Bay to score the 28 a game Dallas is giving up. Who knows who will play for the Cowboys at QB. Tampa Bay has a great defense as usual. I expect Dalls to only score 21 points on offense, lower than their average. I will also give them the 3 points for home field. Tampa Bay -4
WAS @ DET

The Redskins have a great offense when it comes to yards but not when it comes to scoring, only 20 a game. Bring on the Lions defense and their 38 points a game over the last 3. I think the Redskins will score a few more points than their average but I am only giving them 24. The Redskins defense has been very good and its almost amaazing they are giving up 16 points a game. The Lions are only averaging 13 points a game on offense and that will be a stretch against the Redskins, put them down for 10. I will give the Lions 3 points for home field because they have to score some points even by mistake. Redskins -11
BUF @ MIA

The Bills offense has been efficient behind a 7.7 yard attempt on pass plays. This has been the weakness of the Dolphins. I expect the Bills to match their 25 points a game. The Dolphins have brought the wildcat to the NFL but they actually have scored less points in the last 3 games. The Bills have hard a hard time stopping the run and the Dolphins have been running well. I expect the Dolphins to score 22 points. I will also give them 3 points for the home game. Dolphins 0
STL @ NE

The Patriots defense is giving up a lot of yards but not very many points, less than 20 a game. The Rams offense has improved over the last 3 games. The problems with the Rams is they are a good running team and that’s the strength of the Patriots. I expect the Rams to score the Patriots 19 points a game. The Rams are giving up 100 yards less a game over the last 3. They are still giving up 21 points a game right at the Patriots average. I expect the Patriots to run against the poor run defense of the Rams. I would give the Patriots 3 points for home field. Patriots -5
SD @ NO

The Chargers are averaging 27 points a game but only 18 over the last 3. The passing game has taken a hit with the Chambers injury and LT injury. I expect the Chargers to score the 21 points a game the Saints are giving up. The Saints offense is also slowing down thanks to injuries and the Chargers defense is improving. Unfortuantely, this game is being played overseas and I have no idea how either team will react, so pass.
KC @ NYJ

The Chiefs have the worst offense in the NFL and they are sitting LJ for another week.The Jets have an average defense that is very good against the run. I expect the Chiefs to score their 14 points a game. The Jets might have Favre but the best part of their offense is their running game. The worst part of the Chiefs defense is their running game, almost 5.7 yards an attempt. I expect the Jets to score the 28 a game the Chiefs are giving up. Jets -14
ATL @ PHI

Andy Reid has never loss a game after the bye week. The Falcons offense has been very good behind a strong running and passing game. They are averaging 23 points a game, the Eagles are giving up the same over the last 3 weeks. So I expect the Falcons to score 24. The Eagles continue to have a very good offense behind passing and crappy running. They have been averaging 28 points a game. The Falcons haven't been giving up a lot of points compared to the yards, 390 over the last 3. I expect the Eagles to get their 28 a game. Eagles -4
CLE @ JAC

The Browns continue to have problems on offense but they have improved over the last 3 games, now averaging 22 points a game. The Jaguars are giving up 23 points a game but allowing 4.7 yards a run. I expect the Browns to only score 21 points. The Jaguars have been average on offense and the Browns have been average on defense. Even though they are only allowing 18 points a game on defense they are allowing 4.8 a rush. I expect the Jaguars to score their average of 21. Jaguars 0
CIN @ HOU

The Bengals have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and the Texans have one of the worse defenses. I would add the 14 points a game the Bengals are scoring with the 30 a game the Texans are allowing and divide by two. That would give the Bengals 22 points. The Texans are average on offense and the Bengals are also average. The Texans are running for 4.4 yards an attempt exactly what the Bengals are giving up. So expect a big ground game from the Texans and they should score their average of 28 over the last 3 games. Texans -6
NYG @ PIT

This game pits the top offense of the Giants against a very good defense of the Steelers. The difference is almost 200 yards between the offense and defense. This makes the game very tough to call because you have to pick who is going to win. I expect this game to be close to a pick 'em and would only bet if one team was favored by more than 5.
SEA @ SF

The Seahawks are averaging 4.8 yards a rush on offense but under 100 yards a game, I would blame their very poor defense. I expect the Seahawks to score close to the 28 points a game the 49ers are giving up, they should have a chance to run more this game. The 49ers are also running beftter than most teams but the Seahawks have a good run defense and a very poor pass defense. I expect the 49ers to score the 30 points a game the Seahawks are giving up over the last 3. 49ers -2
Mon, Oct 27

IND @ TEN




My Line BoDog My Bet
Ravens -10 Ravens -8 Ravens
O/U 34 O/U 36
Panthers -3 Panthers -4
O/U 53 O/U 43 Over
Tampa Bay -4

O/U 49

Redskins -11 Redskins -8
O/U 34 O/U 42 Under
Dolphins 0 Dolphins +2
O/U 47 O/U 42 Over
Patriots -5 Patriots -7.5 Rams
O/U 40 O/U 42.5
Jets -14 Jets -14
O/U 42 O/U 39
Eagles -4 Eagles -9 Falcons
O/U 52 O/U 45.5
Jaguars 0 Jaguars -7 Browns
O/U 42 O/U 42
Texans -6 Texans -9 Bengals
O/U 50 O/U 45.5
49ers -2 49ers -5
O/U 58 O/U 41 Over

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

For the record I should get a cut of that 64 cents for following directions and contributing to your gambling…..

Anonymous said...

I would take the Panthers and the points, Arizona is awful on the road especially within the NFC...

Also Washington/Jason Campbell is due to finally have some offense and the Lions are the right team to get healthy...

The over scares me in the Buf/Mia game...

Call me crazy but 14 points and Brett Favre sounds like plausible against the Chiefs... Favre's going to get his offensive stats one way or another this year and the Chiefs are a good place to start... I would consider the over as well

I would take the 49ers and the points before I took the over in that game...

Of course if I had the conviction to bet any of these games I wouldn't be spending time arguing your picks, but I spend too much time watching the games not to at least throw in my 2 cents.

Brian said...

I've actually been betting against Bob this whole time, so I'm up over 60%. And the best part - I make Bob place all my bets.

CubsDynasty said...

Lets be honest if you had been betting against me, you would be up a lot higher than 60%, my bookie is driving a hell of a nice car now.

Daniel said...

Nice blog, man. Good to see someone coming up with some halfway decent spreads.