Friday, October 10, 2008

Week 6 Preview

Well things are bad but hopefully we will find a way to profit. I am not putting my picks down just yet because I have been drinking my stock market sorrows away. For better or worse I am very far apart on my thoughts and the actual line, I can not tell if that is a good thing or a bad thing. So what follows are my predictions of the line of course before checking them out:

Week 6
Sun, Oct 12
These teams are equal on offense around 24 points a game but the Falcons are averaging 36 a game at home. This home offensive explosion for the Falcons is powered by a high power running offense (6.5 home). Fortunately for the Bears the running defense has been pretty good (3.8 game). I think the Falcons will be lucky to score 24 a game. The Bears aoffense has actually succeeded from passing the ball, with 206 yards a game and a 6.6 average per attempt. The Falcons have been weak against the pass and the run. Its surprising they are only allowing 21 points a game. This game looks to be a pick 'em with the Falcons getting 3 for homefield. If the Bears are getting any points I am taking them. Atlanta -3
Both of these offenses are equal on their season and last three game numbers. The difference is on defense. The Texans are allowing 32.5 points a game this season and 30.7 in the last 3 games. The Dolphins are passing and running well but they seem to have a problem putting points on the board,. I am going to split the difference and give them 26 on offense. The Texans are averaging 21 points a game behind a strong running game. The Dolphins have a very good run defense and a poor pass defense. The Texans should manage 21 points this game. I like the Texans they are the best 0-4 team possibly ever, so i will probably take the points. Miami -5
Who would believe these offenses are equal in scoring points this season. I know some of you have questioned my love for the Ravens but they are allowing 2.9 yards a run and 4.4 yards a pass, for 14 points a game. Just like in the Matrix, just because you think you are eating a steak doesn't mean you are. Just because you expect the Colts offense to score a ton of points doesn't mean it will happen. I give the Ravens defense the advantage and say they hold them to 14 points. The Ravens offense has been the problem and its suprising they can average 153 yards running on 3.8 yards a rush. The Colots have a horrible run defense and that has contributed to their 23.4 a game. I see the Ravens gettings 20 this game. You have to give the Colts their 3 points for home field advantage. Baltimore -3
The Lions offense is averaging 16 points a game and its surprising they can score that much. The Vikings continue to have a great run defense and a below average pass defense. The Lions will be lucky to score 16 a game. The Lions defense is horrible, over 400 yards a game and 37 points. I expect the Vikings score a few more points than there average of 20, about 24. The Lions have not won against the spread yet, so I am taking them. Minnesota -8
The Raiders are a perfectly balanced offensive team, 155 running and passing. Their average yards per attempt are similar to what the Saints and their 26 points a game give up. I expect the Raiders to score 24 points a game. The Saints offense is averaging almost 28 points a game behind a lot of passing and a horrible running attack. The Raiders are decent against the pass but I expect D'Angelo Hall to have a horrible game. So I expect the Saints to hit their 28 a game. New Orleans -4
The Bengals are 0-5 ATS and they are without Palmer. They are only averaing 15 points a game on offense which is a lot lower than the 29 a game the Jets are giving up. The Jets can't stop the pass but the Bengals can't do anything right. I expect the Bengals to score 21 points on offense. The Jets offense really hasn't been that good, I am surprised they have scored 29 a game. I expect the Bengals defense to hold them to their defensive average of 24 a game. I will give the Jets their 3 points for homefield and Favre. Jets -6
These teams both average 22.8 points a game, the Panthers behind a great passing offense and the Bucs behind a great running offense. Both of these numbers are on attempts. The Panthers defense is even better than the Bucs by almost 5 points. The Panthers defense is even better over the last 3 games. They have also been against KC, ATL and MIN. This game has pick 'em written all over it. Give TB their -3 for homefield. TB -3
The Rams are another team that is 0-4 against the spread. The Rams are only averaing 11 points a game and Washington is allowing 20 points a game. I would expect the Rams to score 12 points a game if they are lucky. The Redskins average 22 points a game behind a strong running game. The Rams defense sucks, they can't stop anything. I expect the Redskins to score 30 points a game. That line is obviously ridiculous. Washington -18
The Jaguars are averaging 20 points a game on offense and the Broncos are allowing 26 a game. The Broncos defense has been bad at everything so I expect the Jaguars to get to that 26. The Broncos are averaging 30 points a game and almost the same average that the Jaguars age giving up. So expect the Broncos to get their 30. Denver -4
Both of these offenses are equal on their average points a game, expect the Cardinals have a lot lower average in both. Their defenses are both allowing the same amount of points but against the Cardinals are allowing more per attempt. I pick this game even but the reality is the Cowboys will have more fans at this game. Henceforth, Dallas -3.
The difference in these two teams is the defense. The 49ers are allowing almost 6 more points a game and a worse rushing and passing defense. Typical Eagles, they can't run but they pass well. The Eagles offense has underperformed the last three weeks and I would blame that on the Westbrook injury. That tells me this a pure pick 'em game. I'll give the Eagles a point. Philadelphia -1
The Packers offense is slowing down, their last 3 games is worse than their overall. Blame it on injuries but they are more a 20 point a game offense, their running game is falling apart. Fortunately, Seattle can't stop anything, allowing 30 points a game. I still think with the Rodgers injury the Packers are lucky to score 21. I can't believe this but the Packers are giving up 28 a game the last three weeks and the injuries keep piling up. The Seahawks are still struggling on offense. I think they hit their last 3 weeks average of 24. Seattle -3
The Patriots are 3-1 despite giving up and scoring the exact same points per game. The Chargers are scoring more and giving up less points (by four a game) and are 2-3. The last three games are even worse for the Patriots. Both teams are giving up the same on defense but the Padres are scoring 8 more a game. Split the difference and you get the, jesus I am so drunk I said Padres, I meant Chargers 4. San Diego -4
Mon, Oct 13
Byes: Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Titans
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My Line
Atlanta -3 Atlanta +3
Miami -5 Miami +3
Baltimore -3 Baltimore +4
Minnesota -8 Minnesota -13.5
New Orleans -4 New Orleans -7
Jets -6 Jets -9
TB -3 TB -1
Washington -18 Washington -14
Denver -4 Denver -3.5
Dallas -3 Dallas -5.5
Philadelphia -1 Philadelphia -5
Seattle -3 Seattle -3
San Diego -4 San Diego -5

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