Week 4 Final Review

I was a little worried when the Steelers scored 14 points in 15 seconds but the Ravens played well enough to cover. It makes the pain of the weekend a little bit better. Below are the final results:

(219) Baltimore Ravens +6 (-105) Mon@6:35p Win

Record: 4-6
Weekly return: -25.76%
Cumulative return: -13.6%

Results on predictions:
Lines I predicted 2 7 0
Lines that were bigger 14 8 2

Still an absolutely horrible week, but if I learned anything its to only bet the games that I don't predict the lines. I am at a 64% success rate for those games.

MNF Preview

I know, I know, I said I usually stay away from Monday Night Football games. The problem is that I love the Ravens and the Steelers have a ton of questions. Including, but not limited too questionable opponents the last few weeks. Both of these defenses have been great. Baltimore limiting teams to 10 points a game and the Steelers to 12.7 a game. Their offenses are pretty close with Baltimore averaging a few more points game. Except the Ravens have been having great success running the ball. Did I mention they basically invented a new defense and its only the third week a team will see the defense? I expected this game to be a pick 'em game. I was shocked to see the Ravens getting 6 and couldn't turn it down.

(219) Baltimore Ravens +6 (-105) Mon@6:35p

Week 4 (Meltdown) Results

As I told someone I talked to over the weekends, this has the possibility of a weekend of wiping me out. The perfect analogy was taking the under in the Bears game and seeing them going into a no-huddle offense and actually executing it. It was just an ugly week and it will be very interesting to see if I can bounce back from it and how long it will take to bet back to even. The results are below followed by some analysis:

(215) Washington Redskins +10½ Sun@2:15p	Win
(211) Buffalo Bills -8½ Sun@2:05p	Win
(199) Houston Texans +7 Sun@11:00a	Win
(217) Eagles vs. (218) Bears Under 40 Sun@6:15p	Loss
(214) Oakland Raiders +8 Sun@2:05p	Loss
(209) Green Bay Packers Pick Sun@11:00a	Loss
(205) Atlanta Falcons +7 (-115) Sun@11:00a	Loss
(203) San Francisco 49ers +170 Sun@11:00a	Loss
(201) Arizona Cardinals +1 Sun@11:00a	Loss

Record: 3-6
Weekly return: -36.33%
Cumulative return: -28.37%

Results on predictions:
Lines I predicted 2 7 0
Lines that were bigger 13 8 2

This tells me going forward to only bet lines that I don't predict. It's to big of a difference and I might have to focus more on the over/under to increase the number of bets. So going forward I plan on predicting score and o/u.

	W	L	P
Favorite	9	5	1	60.00%
Underdog	7	9	1	41.18%
Moneyline	2	6		25.00%
O/U	2	2		50.00%
Pick	1	1		50.00%
	21	23	2

The moneyline is not nearly as successful as I need it to be. At a 25% rate I would need the moneyline to be +300 and my winners have been around the +150 area. This means I need to be around 40% to just break even. I am going to be a little but more cautious on the moneyline plays going forward. I am obviously a lot better in picking favorites but I still want a larger sample.

Week 4: Actual Bets

Thought I would post the actual bets that I made. The only change was going to the money line on the 49ers. I really think they have a shot at beating the Saints and the +170 is to hard to turn down. I have picked a number of underdogs, probably the most I have picked all season. Picks below:

(217) Eagles vs. (218) Bears Under 40 Sun@6:15p

(215) Washington Redskins +10½ Sun@2:15p

(214) Oakland Raiders +8 Sun@2:05p

(211) Buffalo Bills -8½ Sun@2:05p

(209) Green Bay Packers Pick Sun@11:00a

(205) Atlanta Falcons +7 (-115) Sun@11:00a

(203) San Francisco 49ers +170 Sun@11:00a

(201) Arizona Cardinals +1 Sun@11:00a

(199) Houston Texans +7 Sun@11:00a

NFL Week 4 Preview

After a great suggestion I am actually listing my picks for the weekend. Of course, with injuries, suspensions and deaths they could change before Sunday. I also stayed away from a lot of the games that I called the line on correctly after the last study. After this week I am going to look at specific teams and see what my record is for them, maybe they are some teams to ignore. I will probably post my actual picks Sunday morning if anyone is interested and if I remember.

Week 4
Sun, Sep 28
ATL @ CAR
The Panthers let me down last week and their rush defense is pretty bad with 6.2 yards a carry. The bad news is that Atlanta averages 5.7 yards a rush. Atlanta has a horrible defense so I expect the Panthers to continue to score 21 points a game. I would give the Panthers 3 points because its their homefield. Carolina -3
CLE @ CIN
These teams are both 1-2 ATS. So they are having bad seasons and its obvious why, they both give up 22 points a game. They both lost to the Browns by only scoring 10 points. The Bengals look to be a little better on defense and a little better on offense but not much. I think the Bengals should get some points for being at home and being a little bit better. Bengals -4.5
HOU @ JAC
The Texans have allowed a lot more points than the Jac defense but not many more yards. In fact both of these defenses are pretty equal. The same with the offenses. The Texans are giving up 15 more points a game. I expect Jac to be a big favorite, but I still have some faith in the Texans. Jac -8
DEN @ KC
Believe it or not both of these teams are giving up around 28 points a game. The problem for the Chiefs is that their offense is a lot worse than the Broncos. The Broncos score 28 more points a game. Did I mention the Chiefs are on their third starting QB. At a neutral place this game would probably be 14 points and the Chiefs do have a home field advantage. Broncos -11
SF @ NO
Both of these offenses are averaging 26 points a game. The Saints are averaging more yards but the 49ers have better yards per attempt. The Saints defense is even worse than the 49ers and allowing 5 more points a game but 100 yards more a game. I think these teams are equal but I think the Saints will get points for being at homefield. Saints -3
ARI @ NYJ
The Cardinals have averahe 4 more points a game on offense behind 8.5 yards a pass attempt. The Jets have been better at running (4.0) but worse passing (6.3). Both teams beat Miami but the Cardinals beat them by more. The Jets defense has been horrible, allowing 7.0 yards a pass the Cardinals strength. I see the Cardinals scoring the 27 points the Jets are giving up. I see the Jets scoring 21 points against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are spending all week on the east coast and we will see if that helps or hurts but I have to take away 3. Cardinals -3
GB @ TB
I am still very high on the Packers even after last Sunday's loss. Both defenses are pretty poor on these teams. The Packers can't stop the run (5.7) and the Bucs can't stop the pass (7.2). These poor defenses play into the strengths of the offenses. I see both offenses getting their numbers GB 29 and TB 24. GB -5
MIN @ TEN
The Titans are 3-0 ATS so eventually they are going to get too many points. The problem is that the Vikings haven't scored many points and the Titans haven't given up many points. On offense these teams have score 42 combined but only given up 28 combined. Thats an average of 35 and these teams have great run defenses. Expect a lot of 3 and outs. I expect both teams to actually pass and probably score the over. O/U 35
SD @ OAK
The Chargers are just a great offense at 36.7 points a game, the problem is they are allowing 31.3 points a game. The Raiders run defense has been good but they are still allowing 24 points a game, probably because their offense is putting them in bad situations. I see the Chargers probably getting 10 points at a neutral field but you have to give the Raiders home field points. Chargers -7
BUF @ STL
STL is 0-3 ATS and at some point they are going to be 40 point under dogs. They are averaging 10 points a game and giving up almost 39 points a game. Their defense is horrible and they cut a starting CB. Buf is averaging 16 more points a game on offense and 22 less on defense. I really think Buf could be 20 point favorites. Lets give STL a home field advantage and a thats a large line advantage. Bills -15
WAS @ DAL
These two teams have similar defenses giving up around 20 points a game and about the same yards an attempt. The problem is that the Redskins offense is a lot worse than the Cowboys by about 12 points game. I could see the Redskins scoring their 21 a game. I see the Cowboys splitting the difference of their offense and the Redskins defense giving them about 25 points a game. Plus home field. Cowboys -7
PHI @ CHI
The Eagles are a very banged up team. I've been pretty wrong on the Bears for most games and I believe I am 1-2. After this week I am going to look at my record with each team. The Eagles defense has been great against the run the only thing the Bears offense is good at. The Bears defense has been great against the pass the only thing the Eagles are good at. This has defensive struggle written all over it. I find it hard to believe these teams will score over 36 a game, their defensive averages. O/U 35
Mon, Sep 29
BAL @ PIT
My line	BoDog	My Bet
Carolina -3	Carolina -7	Falcons +7
Bengals -4.5	Bengals -3.5
Jaguars -8	Jaguars -8	Texans +8
Broncos -11	Broncos -10
Saints -3	Saints -6	49ers +6
Cardinals -3	Cardinals -3	Cardinals -3
Packers -5	Packers 0	Packers
MIN/TEN 35	MIN/TEN 36
Chargers -7	Chargers -7	Raiders +7
Bills -15	Bills -8.5	Bills -8.5
Cowboys -7	Cowboys -11	Redskins +11
Bears/Eagles 35	Bears/Eagles 40.5	Under 40.5

Results of games based on predicted spread

As I mentioned in my week 3 review I thought it would be interesting to see how I have done in games where I had correctly predicted the spread and how I did in games where the spread was greater than one point. The results are pretty stunning even for just two weeks of results (week 1 I didn't type out predictions).

Week 2 results:
Lines I predicted 1 2 0
Lines that were bigger 4 1 2

Week 3 results:
Lines I predicted 0 2 0
Lines that were bigger 7 4 0

Total:
Lines I predicted 1 4 0
Lines that were bigger 11 5 2

That is a huge difference. I am only 20% successful when I get the line correct and still bet on the game. The other games, where I see differently than the line I am at 69%. Both weeks I predicted 6 lines correctly and still thought I had some knowledge of the games to win, I was obviously very wrong. I will probably wait another week or two to get more results but at this rate I will just skip games that I predicted the line in.

Week 3 Review

I missed watching most of the games because I was flying back from New York, after seeing Yankee stadium for the first time. Looks like I missed some great games and finishes. I am going to pass on the Monday Night Football game. In the past, I have heard that a lot of people go into this game trying to make up for losses during the weekend. In the end, the line gets adjusted accordingly and the last ditch bet ends up not working and creating more losses. Plus, the Chargers have a lot of injuries and betting against Favre has some risks.

I ended the week with another gain, it wasn't very big but better positive than negative. If I could ever find some free time I would like to see how I have done in games where I correctly predicted the spread (+/- one point) and games were there was a big difference. On to the results:

(397) Cincinnati Bengals +13½ Sun@11:00a					Win
(401) Miami Dolphins +13 (-115) Sun@11:00a					Win
(403) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +150 Sun@11:00a					Win
(410) San Francisco 49ers -5 Sun@2:05p					Win
(411) Saints vs. (412) Broncos Over 51½ Sun@2:05p					Win
(413) Steelers vs. (414) Eagles Under 45 Sun@2:15p					Win
(418) Baltimore Ravens -3 (+110) Sun@2:15p					Win
(394) Buffalo Bills -10 Sun@11:00a					Loss
(395) Houston Texans +5½ Sun@11:00a					Loss
(399) Arizona Cardinals +3 (EVEN) Sun@11:00a					Loss
(405) Carolina Panthers +145 Sun@11:00a					Loss
(416) Indianapolis Colts -5 Sun@2:15p					Loss
(420) Green Bay Packers +135 Sun@6:15p					Loss
Record: 7-6
Weekly Return: 8.49%
Cumulative Return: 12.5%

Week 3 Preview

I tried to give a little more detail on picking the games, I usually pay a lot of attention to yard per attempt for pass and run. So I tried to add a few of those numbers in my reviews. Also, since this is early because of my trip to Manhattan I will probably change my mind on a game or two. I still haven't seen the injury reports. As usual, all lines predicted before seeing actual lines.

Sun, Sep 21
KC @ ATL
The Kansas City offense is very bad, along with averaging only 237 yards on offense they can't run or pass very well. Call it coaching, call it injuries, call it what you want but they are only averaging 9 points a game, including a game against the Raiders. Best case scenario I see them scoring 14 points. The Kansas City defense is not very good either and I see Atlanta scoring their average of 21 points. I will probably pass on this game because giving points with a rookie QB worries me. Atlanta -7
OAK @ BUF
The Raiders actually have a better yard per run than the Bills and more total yards. The Bills have been winning through the air and that’s Oakland's weakness. The Bills are averaging 27 points a game and I don't see that changing. The Bills defense has been great but its been against a decimated line in Jax and a poor running team in Seattle. Still, I find it hard to believe Oakland could score more than 17 points. Bills -10
TB @ CHI
These two teams look equal, basically same points in offense and defense. Tampa has shown a weakness in the passing offense but I don't see Orton taking advantage of this. The Bears might be averaging 23 points a game but that involves a special teams TD and the Briggs TD. I still think the Bears and overrated and will take TB. The spread should be -7 but I am guessing its closer, probably only three or four points. TB -7
CAR @ MIN
I am still on the Panthers bandwagon and they get Steve Smith back. The Vikings are changing QB's and one of the 0-2 ATS teams so expect them to get a few more points. The Vikings actually have more offensive yards a game than Carolina. The defenses are about equal with the Vikings being worse at defending the pass. I see the Panthers scoring their average of 24 points. I see the Vikings with a little improvement and getting 21 points. Carolina -3
MIA @ NE
There is one way for the Patriots to get their offense on track and that’s to play a defense allowing 25.5 points a game. Miami can't stop the pass (11.4 play) and the Patriots have been pretty good their (7.1). I expect a break out game and somewhere around 24-28, especially with it being a home game. The Dolphins offense has been very bad and they play a very good defense in New England. I see them lucky to score 10 points. Now the Dolphins are 0-2 ATS so I expect them to get a few points. I don't expect a line of 14 points (I was completely wrong it opened at -13.5), I expect something more reasonable of: New England -8
CIN @ NYG
If I keep betting against the Giants eventually I have to be right. The Giants have covered their last 7 games and that’s as far back as I can see without putting more effort into it. You have a Bengals offense averaging 8.5 points a game against a defense only allowing 10 points a game. Only Sunday is the last game in Yankee Stadium and something tells me the crowd at Giants stadium won't be as much as an advantage. I am taking the Bengals moneyline because it should be a huge payoff. If you are going to be on an upset, at least you know the offense of the Bengals could put a ton of points. Still I'll take a guess: Giants -12
HOU @ TEN
I can't remember where I read the quote but basically a player said everyone is banged up after week 2. Well except for the two teams that got a bye week because of the Hurricane. The Titans defense has been unbelievable with 8.5 a game. The Texans allowed 38 against the Steelers. Kerry Collins through 6 interceptions two years ago to one touchdown when he started. He is not the answer. I think they will score their average of 21 and see the Texans scoring 17. I will probably take the points and bet Texans because of the bye week. Titans -4
ARI @ WAS
The Cardinals are averaging 365 yards on offense but only 2.7 yards a run. At some point defenses are going to just play pass and force them to try and run. The Redskins have a good defense so I expect the Cardinals to score less, plus it’s a west coast team playing in the east coast, 21 points. The Redskins have decent offensive numbers and in theory Campbell has started to look better. Of course, this was against a Saints defense never known to be very good against the pass. I would take the average of 18 points a game. I am also 0-2 on my Washington calls, so I might ignore this game completely. Cardinals -3.
NO @ DEN
The Broncos offense has been out of this world, 463 yards a game. The Saints still suck on defense, 29 points a game. Even being conservative I see the Broncos putting up 30 points. The Saints have averaged 24 points a game and the Broncos have given up 26 a game. The Broncos have been very poor at pass defense, so I expect the Saints to score 28 a game. Give the Broncos the 3 for home, I don't think they deserve it: Broncos -5 O/U 58
DET @ SF
The Mike Martz revenge game. Also, Jon Kitna does not seem happy about Martz being let go. Both of these offenses are averaging 23 points a game. The 49ers have much better averages than the Lions. The Lions defense is horrible also where the 49ers make me wonder how they have given up 26.5 a game. The Lions defense is giving up 15 more points a game, if you split that because the offenses are equal you get: 49ers -7.5
STL @ SEA
These teams are both 0-2 ATS and your guess is as good as mine about who will not go 0-3. Seattle's problem has been their defense they can't stop the pass. The Rams can't stop anything allowing 39.5 to Seattle's 33.5 a game. Atleast the Seahawks have score 20 points a game, the Rams only 8 a game. Seattle still has a home field advantage so I expect a big spread for an 0-2 team. There is no way I am betting on this game these teams are horrible. Seattle -10
CLE @ BAL
I am still high on the Ravens and they got a week off to teach Flacco more of the offense. The Browns lost a game off of Sunday night, so they are on short rest. Cleveland is averaging 8 points a game and the Ravens are allowing 10. I'll be generous and give the Browns 10 points. The Ravens are averaging 17 points and the Browns are giving up 19 points a game. Lets call it 17 points a game. Ravens -7
JAC @ IND
These teams are 2-2 ATS over the last two years. The Colts are only averaging 39 yards running a game (2.3 yards a rush). Sure some of that is the Vikings but most of it is injuries. Jac has been allowing 18 points a game and 7.8 yards an attempt. I am feeling generous and think the Colts will score 21, it is a home game. If Jac was ever going to get their running game going its against a team alowing 4.9 yards a run. The Colts have allowed 22 a game but that includes the Bears crappy TD. Jac is only scoring 13 a game. I'll give Jac 14 a game. Colts -7
PIT @ PHI
It's almost time for the McNabb injury, almost. The player who is injured right now is Big Ben. The Steelers have scored 24 points a game and the Eagles have given up 22. With the injury I say they only get 17 points a game. The Eagles have scored 37.5 points a game and the Steelers have only allowed 11.5. Even if you take the average of that its 24.5. The Steelers have been great on defense, so I will round it down to 21. Eagles -4 O/U 38
DAL @ GB
I still really like the Packers despite their near meltdown to the Lions. I also expect a lot of people to pile on the Cowboys. These teams are pretty equal in offense and defense. Green Bay has been having problems with their rushing defense (5.2 an attempt). Dallas has been a little worse on their passing defense. At a neutral field this game is a pick 'em, so give Green Bay their 3 points. GB -3

SUMMARY:
My Line:	BoDog:
Atlanta -7	Atlanta -6
Bills -10	Bills -9.5
TB -7	TB +3
Carolina -3	Carolina +3.5
New England -8	New England -13
Giants -12	Giants -13.5
Titans -4	Titans -5.5
Cardinals -3.	Cardinals +3
Broncos -5	Broncos -6
O/U 58	O/U 51
49ers -7.5	49ers -4
Seattle -10	Seattle -10
Ravens -7	Ravens -2.5
Colts -7	Colts -6
Eagles -4	Eagles -3.5
O/U 38	O/U 45
GB -3	GB +3

googlecf4d96a127907904.html

googlecf4d96a127907904.html

Week 2 Review

Week 2 was absolutely nuts. I don't know if this was due to me having an interest in every game but I felt like every game turned at some point in the second half. Games that I thought I had no chance in, ended up as covering and the exact opposite also happened (thank you Saints). This just helps my theory even more that any game could be determined by a fluke play and your only chance for survival long term is to play a large sample size of games. Also, I would like to say hello to our random Australian visitor, I hope he comes back to view the site. I am passing on the Monday night game because I ended the week, barely, up. The key problem I ran into was paying -115 to -120 on games. I bet the same amount on every game but does it make more sense to bet every game so I win the same amount? I can see the pro and cons of both arguments and would be interested in your thoughts.

Here are the results:

(195) Indianapolis Colts -2 (-115) Sun@11:00a					Win
(199) Green Bay Packers -3 (-125) Sun@11:00a					Win
(205) Buffalo Bills +175 Sun@11:00a					Win
(213) New England Patriots Pick Sun@2:15p					Win
(220) Cleveland Browns +6½ Sun@6:15p					Win
(202) Carolina Panthers -3 (-120) Sun@11:00a					Push
(217) San Diego Chargers +1 Sun@2:15p					Push
(193) Titans vs. (194) Bengals Over 37 Sun@11:00a					Loss
(197) New Orleans Saints -1 (-115) Sun@11:00a					Loss
(204) St. Louis Rams +9 Sun@11:00a					Loss
(207) Atlanta Falcons +250 Sun@2:05p					Loss
Record: 5-4-2
Weekly Return: 11.11%
Cumulative Return: 7.34%

Week 2 Preview

We are done with week 1 and now on to week 2, or some people call it jump to conclusions week. My goal is to try and preview the games quickly and guess the point spread and than look at the point spread in another post to see how close, hopefully this will help determine who I am willing to bet on.

Sun, Sep 14
CHI @ CAR
I am still not sold on the Bears, even after the suprising upset of the Colts. The Bears can't expect to win games with 136 passing yards. I see Carolina having the same success they had in week one and putting up 24-26 points. I don't see the Bears team matching the same points as the Chargers (24) so I am think more in the 20 area. We're talking 4-6 points without adding the 3 for home field. Panthers -8
BUF @ JAC
What happened to the Jac running game? They only had 33 yards last week and face a Bills defense that only gave up 85 yards. The offensive line problems continue for Jac and its hard to see them increasing their 10 points a game much. I give them a generous 14 points preview. The problem is their defense didn't look that good against the Titans and the Bills are looking better offensively even if its after one week. I just don't believe in the Bills yet and would consider this a 17-14 game without thinking of home field. I know home field would make it a puch but with the offensive line problems and the bandwagon of the Bills I am thinking: Bills -3
OAK @ KC
Both teams had offensive problems in week 1. Oakland did score 14 points but all in the fourth quarter of a blowout. Kansas City at least played good defense against a team that still has a number of weapons. Kansas City is 9-1 ATS versus Oakland in the last 10 games. Their only loss coming in their last game. I assume this is a pick 'em game with KC getting 3 because of homefield. I would say to take the Raiders because they do have some talent on offense but their HC admitted he doesn't have any input on Defensive play calling, that seems like a problem. I would say take KC but they are talking about rotating 2 QBs. I will probably pass on this game unless the O/U is 40ish. KC -3
IND @ MIN
It's amazing to know one of these teams will start the season 0-2. I look at the Colts loss as a team playing their first game in 11 months with their starting QB and missing their center. The Vikings are in worse shape, they are without their stud LT for 3 more games. Dwight Freeney should have a monster game. I see the Colts scoring more than the Packers, around 28-31 points. I still see the Vikings scoring around last week's number with 21. I see more possibility in the Colts number so even with homefield advantage: Colts -7
NO @ WAS
I wish I had seen the Saints game because statistically they had huge numbers, 337 passing and 101 running. Even worse, I did get to see the Redskins game and its obvious they are still learning the west coast offense. I see the Saints scoring the same or more points against the Redskin whose defense isn't as good as TB, 26-28 points. The good news for the Redskins is that the Saints defense is not as good as the Giants. Yet, the Saints have Ed Orgeron who is a great DL coach and a crazy person according to the book Meat Market (http://www.amazon.com/Meat-Market-Smash-Mouth-Football-Recruiting/dp/1933060395). So I expect Washington to score 14-17 points. Judging that this is in Washington and using conservaitve estimates I see: Saints -6
NYG @ STL
The Rams were horrible in week one. This is one of those games that I expect the line to be ridiculous because you have the public piling on the Giants because they are the Champions. I am not completely sold on the Giants and think they are a 9 to 10 win team. Even a team as bad as the Rams have to cover a few spreads. I see the Giants as big favorites maybe: Giants -10
GB @ DET
I was really high on the Packers to start the season and they did enough in Week 1 for me to continue to believe. Their 24 points was a good showing against the Vikings and a missed FG and some questionable decision should have led to more points. The Lions played the Falcons and thats the only reason they looked decent. They lost by 13 points to the Falcons. I expect the same margin with the Packers, but take away 3 for home field. Packers -10
TEN @ CIN
Neither of these teams really excite me. The Titans have an issue with Young who is hurt and doesn't want to play football. The Bengals, well they resigned Chris Henry. The thing I see going in both of these teams favors is that they are playing a worse defense then they played in week 1. So instead of scoring a total of 27 points, I could talk myself into an O/U of 40. I will probably pass.
SF @ SEA
These teams combined to give up 57 points and only score 23. Seattle has been caught (destroyed) by the injury bug (plague) and the 49ers still suck. It was almost a close game for Seattle before the fake FG and then they fell apart. I would consider these teams about equal but give Holmgren a big advantage over Nolan. Thats 3 points right there. Plus you have the best home field advantage in football, so thats another 4 points. Seattle -7
ATL @ TB
Atlanta played Detriot, so forgive me if I don't have much faith in their numbers. I usually love Tampa Bay but it sounds like Gruden and Garcia are having some major issues and Griese has been called the starter. The offense scored a respectable 20 points on 352 of total yards. Its the defense that gace up the 438 yards and 10.5 per passing attempt. Tampa is the better team and normally I would expect a 8-9 point line. The issues with Garica, Gruden and Griese tell me to back away slowly. The only way I am playing this game is if its TB -8 or higher I'll take a chance on the money line.
MIA @ ARI
Arizona's defense did not play very well against the 49ers giving up 5.4 yards a run and 9.2 yards a pass attempt. They were the receipients of a number of turnovers. Miami is coming off a 1-15 season and played the Jets close. They had absolutely not running game this week and it will be interesting to see what they can do against Arizona. They gave up 20 points, 181 pass yards and 8.2 an attempt to Favre, they face another old QB with better WR's. I think 24 points is in the Cards (sorry one crappy pun). I think Miami could add to their total and get to 17 points. Arizona doesn't get a homefield advantage in my book so: Arizona -7
NE @ NYJ
The Jets won by 6 points over the Dolphins and the Patriots beat the Chiefs by 7 points. I think these two teams are evenly matched. They both have good defenses partly due to playing crappy teams in week 1. I think the thing no one is talking about is SpyGate. Bellichek wants to win this game and probably knock Favre out. A game that probably sees the Jets getting 3 points because its their homefield, this has money line Patriots written all over it. Jets -3
SD @ DEN
I didn't get to watch the SD loss but their defensive numbers aren't horrible. I am going with the theory that Merriman at 60% was probably a horrible idea for the team. They have been known to get no pass rush without him so it will be interesting to see what kind of pressure they can get. Denver looked good but the Raiders made them look great. If this was a week 1 game I bet the game would be even. The new Broncos stadium is not the advantage it use to be. With the ways two teams played I am expecting a bigger line for the game and a money line chance with SD. Broncos -4
BAL @ HOU
I love the Ravens, I think their defense will be a lot better because of the injuries last year. They looked unbelievable against the Bengals, who despite their problems have at least an above average offense. The Texans looked horrible and their 21 point defecit looked like a 49 point loss. I just can't imagine betting on a rookie QB on his first road game giving 5+ points. This should be a pick 'em game but I am thinking the stinker of week 1 for Houston makes it. Baltimore -2
PIT @ CLE
The Cleveland defense, never their strength, played very poorly against Super Bowl favorite Cowboys. They gave up 487 total yards, they were probably lucky it was only 28 points. Pittsburgh destroyed the Texans. Road team is 7-3-1 ATS when these two teams play and Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine. Everything lines up for Pittsburgh. They are probably 6 point favorites and if so, I would take Cleveland but not to win just giving the points: Pittsburgh -6
Mon, Sep 15
PHI @ DAL
Its to early to pick this game, that’s what Monday during the day is for.

SUMMARY:

My Line	BoDog
Panthers -8	Panthers -3
Bills -3	Bills +5.5
KC -3	KC -3.5
Colts -7	Colts -2.5
Saints -6	Saints -1
Giants -10	Giants -9
Packers -10	Packers -3
Ten/Cin 40	Ten/Cin 37
Seattle -7	Seattle -7
TB -8	TB -7
Arizona -7	Arizona -7
Jets -3	Jets -1
Broncos -4	Broncos +1
Baltimore -2	Baltimore +4.5
Pittsburgh -6	Pittsburgh -6.5