Monday, September 29, 2008

Week 4 (Meltdown) Results

As I told someone I talked to over the weekends, this has the possibility of a weekend of wiping me out. The perfect analogy was taking the under in the Bears game and seeing them going into a no-huddle offense and actually executing it. It was just an ugly week and it will be very interesting to see if I can bounce back from it and how long it will take to bet back to even. The results are below followed by some analysis:

(215) Washington Redskins +10½ Sun@2:15p Win
(211) Buffalo Bills -8½ Sun@2:05p Win
(199) Houston Texans +7 Sun@11:00a Win
(217) Eagles vs. (218) Bears Under 40 Sun@6:15p Loss
(214) Oakland Raiders +8 Sun@2:05p Loss
(209) Green Bay Packers Pick Sun@11:00a Loss
(205) Atlanta Falcons +7 (-115) Sun@11:00a Loss
(203) San Francisco 49ers +170 Sun@11:00a Loss
(201) Arizona Cardinals +1 Sun@11:00a Loss

Record: 3-6
Weekly return: -36.33%
Cumulative return: -28.37%

Results on predictions:
Lines I predicted 2 7 0
Lines that were bigger 13 8 2

This tells me going forward to only bet lines that I don't predict. It's to big of a difference and I might have to focus more on the over/under to increase the number of bets. So going forward I plan on predicting score and o/u.

Favorite 9 5 1 60.00%
Underdog 7 9 1 41.18%
Moneyline 2 6
O/U 2 2
Pick 1 1

21 23 2

The moneyline is not nearly as successful as I need it to be. At a 25% rate I would need the moneyline to be +300 and my winners have been around the +150 area. This means I need to be around 40% to just break even. I am going to be a little but more cautious on the moneyline plays going forward. I am obviously a lot better in picking favorites but I still want a larger sample.

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