Sunday, November 30, 2008

Week 13 Results

Thursday's games were tough, with the better teams just pouring it on. I went 1-2 but Sunday provided a much better result. In fact, the Colts and Bears had something in common. The only two teams for me not to cover. An absolute great week that pushes me over .500 on the year. I have also decided that next year I will be making two deposits. One before the season and than one in week 8. I seem to be getting in a groove these last few weeks as it is becoming obvious who the better teams are. Excluding the Colts who continue to be Jekyll and Hyde all season. One problem I am noticing with them is they aren't taking many shots downfield. I think this is due to their offensive line struggles and it forces them to complete short passes and be perfect on every drive. Sunday, they looked like a .500 team that has caught a few lucky breaks. I also added another great website, Kissing Suzy Kolber, that I have received some traffic from. If you are looking to kill some time I would suggest checking out all the blogs I have linked to.

(305) Tennessee Titans -11½ (-105) Thu@11:30a Win
(391) San Francisco 49ers +7 (-115) Sun@12:00p Win
(393) New Orleans Saints +4 (-105) Sun@12:00p Win
(395) Carolina Panthers +3 (-115) Sun@12:00p Win
(397) New York Giants -4 Sun@12:00p Win
(399) Miami Dolphins vs. (400) St. Louis Rams Under 44 Sun@12:00p Win
(401) Baltimore Ravens -7 (-120) Sun@12:00p Win
(405) Atlanta Falcons +5 Sun@3:05p Win
(407) Pittsburgh Steelers +1 Sun@3:15p Win
(307) Seattle Seahawks +13 (-115) Thu@3:15p Loss
(309) Arizona Cardinals +3 (-125) Thu@7:15p Loss
(403) Indianapolis Colts -6 (-105) Sun@12:00p Loss
(411) Chicago Bears +150 Sun@7:15p Loss

Record: 9-4
Overall Record: 60-57-4
Weekly Return: 35.67%
Cumulative Return: -69.2%

Week 13 Actual Bets

(391) San Francisco 49ers +7 (-115) Sun@12:00p

(393) New Orleans Saints +4 (-105) Sun@12:00p

(395) Carolina Panthers +3 (-115) Sun@12:00p

(397) New York Giants -4 Sun@12:00p

(399) Miami Dolphins vs. (400) St. Louis Rams Under 44 Sun@12:00p

(401) Baltimore Ravens -7 (-120) Sun@12:00p

(403) Indianapolis Colts -6 (-105) Sun@12:00p

(405) Atlanta Falcons +5 Sun@3:05p

(407) Pittsburgh Steelers +1 Sun@3:15p

(411) Chicago Bears +150 Sun@7:15p

Week 13 Preview

Broncos at Jets - Nov 30, 4:15 pm

Teams Open O/U Projected Offense Defense Predicted My Pick
Broncos 9 47.5 19.25 23.5 27.5 21
Jets -9 47.5 28.25 29.4 21.3 30

49ers at Bills - Nov 30, 1:00 pm

Teams Open Over

49ers 6.5 42.5 18 22.9 28.2 21 49ers
Bills -6.5 42.5 24.5 24.8 22.6 24

Saints at Buccaneers - Nov 30, 1:00 pm

Teams Open Over

Saints 3.5 46.5 21.5 28.8 25.3 24 Saints
Buccaneers -3.5 46.5 25 23.4 16.4 24

Panthers at Packers - Nov 30, 1:00 pm

Teams Open Over

Panthers 3 42.0 19.5 22.7 18.2 23 Panthers
Packers -3 42.0 22.5 27.5 23.6 21

Giants at Redskins - Nov 30, 1:00 pm

Teams Open Over

Giants -3.5 41.5 22.5 29.9 18.1 25 Giants
Redskins 3.5 41.5 19 18.3 18.1 19

Dolphins at Rams - Nov 30, 1:00 pm

Teams Open Over

Dolphins -9 44.0 26.5 21.5 22.3 24 Under
Rams 9 44.0 17.5 13.4 31.3 13

Ravens at Bengals - Nov 30, 1:00 pm

Teams Open Over

Ravens -6.5 36.0 21.25 23.5 17 24 Ravens
Bengals 6.5 36.0 14.75 13.5 25.1 10

Colts at Browns - Nov 30, 1:00 pm

Teams Open Over

Colts -4.5 45.0 24.75 22.5 22.2 24 Colts
Browns 4.5 45.0 20.25 18.8 21.5 17

Falcons at Chargers - Nov 30, 4:05 pm

Teams Open Over

Falcons 5.5 48.5 21.5 25.1 20.5 26 Falcons
Chargers -5.5 48.5 27 24.9 22.9 26

Steelers at Patriots - Nov 30, 4:15 pm

Teams Open Over

Steelers 1 40.0 19.5 21.5 14.5 21 Steelers
Patriots -1 40.0 20.5 24.3 20.2 17

Chiefs at Raiders - Nov 30, 4:15 pm

Teams Open Over

Chiefs 3 41.5 19.25 17.8 29.7 17
Raiders -3 41.5 22.25 14.5 22.3 14

Bears at Vikings - Nov 30, 8:15 pm

Teams Open Over

Bears 3.5 42.0 19.25 24.3 21.3 21 Bears
Vikings -3.5 42.0 22.75 23 22.4 21

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Week 13 Thursday Preview

Three games on Thanksgiving. One of my next projects will be to determine how I do on early games versus late games. My theory is that I get a little tired of doing games and this hurts my record. To back this up, I have had very good success on Thursday and Monday night games where I have only had a few games to look at.

Titans at Lions - Nov 27, 12:30 pm

The Titans have an above average offense that has been scoring 28 points a game. The Lions have the worst defense in the NFL and have been allowing 32 points a game. The Lions can't stop anything on defense and I expect the Titans to score 35 points this game. The Lions are awful on offense and the Titans are a top 5 defense. I think the Lions would be lucky to score the 15 a game the Titans are giving up, lets call it 14. It is amazing that the Titans are only favored by 11, I know they have struggled the last two games including a loss last week. Still, I find it hard to believe they will only win by 11. I am tempted to go the over but after seeing the Lions give up against the Bears with a similar number and blow out I am betting on the Titans
Teams Open O/U Projected Offense Defense Predicted
Titans -11 44 27.5 23.4 15 35 Titans
Lions 11 44 16.5 17.5 31.5 14

Seahawks at Cowboys - Nov 27, 4:15 pm

The Seahawks are a very bad team on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys are only a little bit better but that includes games with Brad Johnson at QB. Seattle has a decent rushing game and that happens to be the Cowboys weakness on defense. They are projected to score less than they average and less than the Cowboys give up. I think 21 is a conservative number, this is basically the game of the year for Seahawk players. The Cowboys have an average offense that is powered by their running game. The Seahawks have a below average defense but their problem is stopping the pass. I could see the Cowboys putting up 30 points this game. Still, that has me taking the Seahawks.
Teams Open Over

Seahawks 13 46.5 16.75 18.8 25.2 21
Cowboys -13 46.5 29.75 24.1 22.8 30 Cowboys

Cardinals at Eagles - Nov 27, 8:15 pm

The Eagles seem to be falling apart at the seems. They have been averaging 25 points a game and the Cardinals have been giving up 24 a game. Even if Westbrook doesn't play, lets give them the 25 they are predicted to score. The Eagles have only been giving up 21 points a game but that is behind a strong run defense. The Cardinals are scoring 29 points per game behind their passing offense. Sure the Eagles will be blizting but Joe Flacco was able to have a good week passing I think Warner should be fine. I expect the Cardinals to score at least 28 points.
Teams Open Over

Cardinals 3 47 22 28.9 24.1 28 Cardinals
Eagles -3 47 25 24.6 20.8 25

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Week 12 Results

The week started off very well, with a win on Thursday night and a 4-1 morning to put the record at 5-1 for the week. The afternoon was not very kind at all, 1-3. Still, the week was a win with the total record at 6-4.

(106) Pittsburgh Steelers -11 Thu@7:15p Win
(197) Buffalo Bills -3 (-120) Sun@12:00p Win
(199) New York Jets +5½ Sun@12:00p Win
(205) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8½ Sun@12:00p Win
(209) Chicago Bears -8 Sun@12:00p Win
(219) New York Giants -3½ (-105) Sun@3:15p Win
(203) San Francisco 49ers +10 (-115) Sun@12:00p Loss
(213) Panthers vs. (214) Falcons Under 42 Sun@3:15p Loss
(216) Denver Broncos -9 Sun@3:05p Loss
(217) Washington Redskins -3½ (-105) Sun@3:15p Loss

Record: 6-4
Overall Record: 51-53-4
Weekly Return: 15.3%
Cumulative Return: -77.3%

Week 12 Actual Bets

(197) Buffalo Bills -3 (-120) Sun@12:00p
(199) New York Jets +5½ Sun@12:00p
(203) San Francisco 49ers +10 (-115) Sun@12:00p
(205) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8½ Sun@12:00p
(209) Chicago Bears -8 Sun@12:00p
(213) Carolina Panthers vs. (214) Atlanta Falcons Under 42 Sun@3:15p
(216) Denver Broncos -9 Sun@3:05p
(217) Washington Redskins -3½ (-105) Sun@3:15p
(219) New York Giants -3½ (-105) Sun@3:15p

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Week 12 Preview

I have changed things up drastically, from the analysis to the write-up.

Teams Spread O/U Projected Points Offense Avg Defense Avg My Projection My Bet
Texans 3 50.0 23.50 23.6 28.7 24
Browns -3 50.0 26.50 20.1 22.1 28
The Texans have an above average offense and a top 10 running attack. The Browns have a below average defense. I expect the Texans to score 24 points. The Browns have a below average offense but its been improving ; the Texans are horrible on defense, one of the league's worse teams. I expect the Browns to score 28.

Bills -3 43.5 23.25 21.9 21.8 27 Bills
Chiefs 3 43.5 20.25 16.5 27.3 20
The Bills offense keeps getting worse and worse, they aren't very good at anything. Fortunately, they play the Chiefs defense. I expect them to score the 27 a game the Chiefs are allowing. I think it’s a strech for the Chiefs to score 20 points. Taking the Bills.

Jets 5 40.5 17.75 28.9 22.1
Titans -5 40.5 22.75 24.4 13.1

I keep saying Vegas has to respond to the Titans and their great ATS record, this looks like the game, projecting only 18 points for the Jets.

Patriots 3 42.0 19.50 21.9 19.4

Dolphins -3 42.0 22.50 20.9 19.7

These teams look equally matched and the Patriots have been improving. Going to pass

49ers 10.5 46.5 18.00 23 27.5 23 49ers
Cowboys -10.5 46.5 28.50 23 22.9 30
The Cowboys defense is average at best, so I expect the 49ers to score around 23 points a game.

Buccaneers -9 41.0 25.00 21.9 16 28 Buccaneers
Lions 9 41.0 16.00 17.3 30.8 14
The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the league, I find it very hard to believe they are only going to score 25 points. I also find it hard to believe the Lions will score 16 points.

Eagles 1 39.5 19.25 26.4 19.3

Ravens -1 39.5 20.25 22.2 18

Another case of equally matched teams, pass.

Bears -9 43.0 26.00 24 23.1 28 Bears
Rams 9 43.0 17.00 14.4 31.7 14
This is a must win game for the Bears and the Rams have been absolutely horrible lately. I expect the Bears to score at least 28 points against the Rams. I expect the Rams to struggle and be lucky to score 14 points against a fired up Bears defense.

Vikings 1.5 40.5 19.50 22.3 23.4

Jaguars -1.5 40.5 21.00 21.2 21

These teams are equally bad, pass.

Panthers 1 42.5 20.75 22.2 15.5
Falcons -1 42.5 21.75 23.1 19.8

These teams are allowing a total of 36 points a game, the over seems high to me. Both of these teams have been struggling recently on offense against poor defenses

Raiders 10 42.5 16.25 12.8 23.5 12
Broncos -10 42.5 26.25 24.8 27.1 25 Broncos
Last week I wondered how the Raiders could score over 10 points, it takes a 90+ yard punt return for a TD. I expect the Broncos to easily put put 25 points. There is no way the Raiders score more than 12 points.

Redskins -3.5 40.5 22.00 18.1 18.2 24 Redskins
Seahawks 3.5 40.5 18.50 19 25.7 17
The Redskins are socinr 18 points a game but the Seahawks are allowing 26 a game. The Redskins have been struggling lately but I expect them to score at least 24 points. The Seahawks will be lucky to score 17 points.

Giants -3.5 49.0 26.25 29.2 17 28 Giants
Cardinals 3.5 49.0 22.75 28.9 22.8 21
Tie goes to the defense and the Giants have a much better defense than the Cardinals. Plus, their pass rush should cause those fumble problems to come back to Warner.

Colts 3 49.5 23.25 22.4 22.4

Chargers -3 49.5 26.25 25.4 22.9

I am surprised the Colts Chargers defense is only giving up that many points a game. I am leaning the Colts but I am going to pass on this game. The Colts offense still seems to be struggling.

My Bet
Panthers/Falcons Under

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Week 11 Review & Thursday Night Preview

Week 11 was a poor week of 4-4 and I guess I should have stopped after Thursday night. You can read the recap of the early games in the blog and the afternoon games also went 1-1. The Jaguars fell apart against the Titans at the end of the game, continuing the Titans dominance ATS. I actually made a little money this week, I am not exactly sure how that worked out but I am not going to argue.

(307) New York Jets +3½ (-140) Thu@7:15p Win
(407) Houston Texans +8½ Sun@12:00p
(420) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4½ (-105) Sun@12:00p Win
(423) Arizona Cardinals -3 (-105) Sun@3:05p Win
(410) Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115) Sun@3:15p Loss
(413) Philadelphia Eagles -9½ (-105) Sun@12:00p Loss
(415) Saints vs. (416) Chiefs Over 50½ Sun@12:00p Loss
(418) Carolina Panthers -14½ (-105) Sun@12:00p Loss

Record: 4-4
Weekly Return: 2.49%
Cumulative Return: -80.3%

I am going to try something different this week, I have been waiting to do this until I have had a less successful week. Why spend time trying to predict the points of the teams when I can take advantage of all the research Vegas has done. By using the over/under and the spread I can backdoor engineer what Vegas thinks what each team is going to score. For example Thursday night's game has an over/under of 34.5 and the Steelers giving 10.5 points. That equates to the Steelers scoring 22.5 points and the Bengals scoring 12 points. What I like about this, is they are trying to set the line to get equal bets, so hopefully there will be some obvious bets.

The Steelers are projected at 22.5 points, they average 20.9 a game and the Bengals allow 24.9 a game. The Bengals have an average defense but I have a feeling their offense has put them in a lot of bad situations. I would expect the Steelers to score the 25 a game the Bengals are giving up. The Bengals are projected at 12 points on offense, lower than their 13.8 a game. The Steelers are the #1 defense and allowing 15 points a game. I expect the Bengals to struggle against the top defense and to be lucky to score 10 points.

Steelers -15
O/U 35

So I will bet on the Steelers, 1/10th of the remaining pot.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Week 11 Live Blog

We are going to give this a shot today. It's already a great start to the day, I get the pleasure of watching two games at 12 o'clock. I get the Bears game and the Colts game. I took the Texans as my only underdog of the 12 o'clock games and I am giving 8.5 points.

12:03 - The Texans start off well returning the ball to the 45 and than getting a penalty putting them at their 20 and reminding me Ronsenfuls is starting

12:04 - Announcers say Slaton has dead legs, he than run for 9 yards and I remember its the Colts defense

12:06 - The Bears and Colts are battling for the worse run defense I have ever seen, Grant 35 yard run

12:09 - The Texans pass on 3rd and 1 in the red zone, even though they have been running through the Colts. Needless to say, they get 3 points out of the drive.

12:12 - The Colts return the kickoff to midfield and unlike the Texans they don't have a penalty

12:16 - The Lions score a TD with a pass to Megatron, not a good sign for giving 14.5

12:19 - Back to back dropped passes from Clark and Wayne give the Colts a FG attempt

12:25 - K.Walter open for about a 60 yard pass play, the Colts defense was completely fooled on PA

12:27 - The Chiefs get a TD but that game is a long way from 51 points and Rosenfuls gets sacked in the red zone as the Colts continue to play well.

End of First Quarter Review
(407) Houston Texans +8½ Sun@12:00p WINNING
(413) Philadelphia Eagles -9½ (-105) Sun@12:00p LOSING
(415) New Orleans Saints vs. (416) Kansas City Chiefs Over 50½ Sun@12:00p NOT ON PACE
(418) Carolina Panthers -14½ (-105) Sun@12:00p LOSING
(420) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4½ (-105) Sun@12:00p LOSING BUT GAME IS TIED

Currently 1-4 with the Eagles not playing well at all against the Bengals, no points. The Saints and Chiefs not scoring at all. The Panthers struggling but at least Tampa Bay is within striking distance.

12:41 - The Bengals are about to score a touchdown on the one yard line to put pressure on the Eagles game, the Colts continue to drop passes left and right to help that game.

12:41 - The Bengals only get 3 points and the Saints add 3 points. The Bengals was a great outcome but I need the Saints and Chiefs to start putting up TD's to get to 51.

12:48 - The Lions get a FG and the Panthers continue to suck, the Vikings are in the red zone and the Texans can't get a third and short. Nothing seems to be going right today.

12:54 - The Saints get a TD and Carolina gets into the red zone, both encouraging developments.

12:56 - The good news is the Panthers score a TD, the bad news is they are down 3 points to the Lions when I am giving 14.5.

1:00 - Texans get a nice punt return into the Colts territory, the Colts continue to look horrible, would be nice to see the Texans get a TD out of this drive.

1:04 - The Chiefs are first and goal at the one and the Texans are first and goal at the two. Two touchdowns would be huge here.

1:09 - DeAngelo Williams just had a 56 yard TD run but that just ties the game against the Lions. I find it hard to believe that Culpepper can continue playing without making a mistake, so a high scoring game is what I have to hope for now.

1:11 - The Chiefs are unable to pound the ball in and have to get a field goal, that game is at 20 and I need 51, five touchdowns is a lot to ask at this point, not looking good.

1:18 - The Colts are trying to move down the field against the Texans, realizing they still have a no-huddle passing attack in the playbook, it must be far in the back.

1:21 - The Colts run out of time in the drive and have to try the FG and they make it

End of the first half update:
(407) Houston Texans +8½ Sun@12:00p WINNING
(413) Philadelphia Eagles -9½ (-105) Sun@12:00p LOSING BADLY THE EAGLES ARE DOWN 10 POINTS
(415) New Orleans Saints vs. (416) Kansas City Chiefs Over 50½ Sun@12:00p NOT ON PACE BUT CLOSE, THEY ARE ON PACE FOR 46 POINTS, NEED FOUR TOUCHDOWNS IN THE SECOND HALF
(418) Carolina Panthers -14½ (-105) Sun@12:00p NOT ON PACE WITH THE PANTHERS UP ONLY FIVE POINTS
(420) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4½ (-105) Sun@12:00p LOSING TAMPA BAY DOWN 7 AT HALF

Record: 1-4

Everyone is in striking distance and a few breaks could pull out a few games, but things are looking bleak now.

1:44 - The Cols are driving, I guess they found out they are allowed to pass the ball during the whole game and not the final two minutes. At some point, you just have to abandon the run instead of wasting plays.

1:46 - The Saints get into the Chiefs territory to start the half, but still four touchdowns is a lot of touchdowns.

1:48 - The Saints get a 47 yd TD throw from Brees, making it a more manageable three TD's the rest of the game. Manning finds a wide open Addai for a TD, putting the pressure on the Texans offense, thats not a good thing.

1:52 - The Panthers get in the red zone where a TD would give them a 15 point lead which would cover their 14.5 points.

1:54 - Steve Slaton gives me a double bonus on that 70 yard TD run, yes I have him on a fantasy football team. The Texans making this game a lot more exciting than the Bears beatdown.

1:55 - The Panthers have to settle for a FG, putting them up 11, but hopefully putting pressure on Culpepper to throw the ball.

1:57 - The good news is the Chiefs are at first and goal the bad news from the 18 yard line, FG's will not help, I need TD's.

2:00 - The Saints pick up a penalty giving the Chiefs a first down and the ball on the 3 yard line.

2:02 - The Colts score again and the Chiefs continue to suck from within 5 yards of the goal line

2:04 - The Lions make it an 8 point game and the Eagles are down 3.

2:05 - The Chiefs have to settle for 3 points which does nothing to help me, still need 3 TDs

2:06 - The Tampa Bay game is tied but the Vikings are at midfield.

2:12 - The Saints keep up their end of the bargain scoring another TD and hopefully forcing the Chiefs to throw, which should lead to big plays either for their offense or the Saints defense.

End of Third Quarter Update
(407) Houston Texans +8½ Sun@12:00p WINNING BUT BARELY
(413) Philadelphia Eagles -9½ (-105) Sun@12:00p LOSING I NEED THE EAGLES TO SCORE TWO STRAIGHT TDS
(415) New Orleans Saints vs. (416) Kansas City Chiefs Over 50½ Sun@12:00p THIS IS TO CLOSE TO CALL WITH THE GAME AT 40 AT THE END OF THE 3RD
(418) Carolina Panthers -14½ (-105) Sun@12:00p LOSING WITH THE PANTHERS NEEDING ONE TD
(420) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4½ (-105) Sun@12:00p LOSING THE GAME IS TIED I NEED TB TO TAKE OVER AND SCORE A TD

Record: 1-3-1
Every game is close and I could go 0-5 or 5-0 with a lot of football left to play

2:29 - The Texans are in the red zone with a first down, a TD here would be huge and of course put them bad in the covering category

2:33 - Ahman Green, from Nebraska, helping the cause, well except killing me on Slaton's touchdowns but the game has been great.

2:35 - Tampa Bay has taken a 3 point lead with only five minutes left, its not a good sign because I need them to score another touchdown.

2:41 - Tampa Bay is in the red zone and even a field goal would be huge, the problem is the Colts are driving.

2:42 - The Saints Chiefs game is at 47 points, still need one more TD to get the over, almost 10 minutes left in the game. I really need the Texans to hold the Colts to a FG.

2:44 - Detriot scores all but assuring the Panthers won't cover

2:45 - Another reason to hate FOX TV, the Bears are down 31 points and have their back-up QB in. Why not change it to another game that is close, don't they realize most people are just switching to CBS?

2:47- Tampa Bay goes up 6 and the Colts are challenging the spot on a catch which is huge. If the Colts win they get a new set of downs, if not they are probably going to kick a FG and only go up 6 points.

2:51 - Colts first down, thats not good at all. The hope here is they run for a first down and than just run the clock out.

2:52 - The Eagles game looks like a loss with it tied at 13 with less than 3 minutes left, thanks for not showing up Eagles, I hope you lose.

2:53 - Two minutes left in the Colts game, it will be third down and the Texans have no timeouts left. The move is probably to run the ball and let 40 seconds go off the clock and than take the 3 points. Or do you try for a TD to ice the game. Even if you go up 6 points you need your defense to actually stop the Texans.

2:54 - DeAngelo Williams scores another rushing TD giving the Panthers a nine point lead, I need a Culpepper pick 6 miracle, but its the Lions so it could happen.

2:56 - Why I never think of Dungy as a top head coach, he calls a 3 yard pass, even if Clark catches the ball he isn't going to get the first on that route. Why not run the ball and take off 40 seconds. The Colts deserve to lose this game.

2:57 - The Saints kick a FG making it a 50 point game which sucks since we have 50.5. Just over 3 minutes left in the game, not looking good for the over.

3:00 - The Panthers have first down on the Lions 38 yard line a TD would cover the spread.

3:01 - The Colts get an interception and thankfully after the interception the Colts play falls to ground. 1-0

3:03 - Tampa Bay is in operation kneel down which is a good sign. The Saints have the ball which is a horrible sign. The Panthers are trying to pass so a score is a small possibility. The Eagles game is going to be a loss. Record 1-1

3:05 - Tampa Bay gets the win and the cover. 2-1

3:06 - The Saints are in operation kneel down and this is going to be a tough 1/2th point loss. Its amazing how close vegas can get on the line.

3:07 - The Lions have the ball so the only chance is a interception by Culpepper, well any turnover from the Lions that would lead to a defense TD.

3:08 - The Chiefs Saints game is over. 2-2

3:12 - The Panthers refuse to run up the score and another loss. 2-3 The good news was the win on Thursday night so overall 3-3.

Two late games with the Jaguars getting 3 points against the Titans and the Cardinals giving 3 points to the 49ers. I hope someone enjoyed the live blog and I am calling it quits for the day after all the typing. I need a break and I love that because of NFL rules they have to leave an overtime game. Thats the dumbest rule I have ever seen, it serves no purpose. Even worse, Fox paid 8 billion dollars for the right to televise NFL games and than they don't have an afternoon game. No wonder why their stock is tanking.

Record early game: 2-3
Record in week 11: 3-3

Week 11 Actual Bets

Already 1-0 on the week, with just 7 games being bet on I only used 70% of my pot. Check out this page during the games as I am going to attempt a live blog.

(407) Houston Texans +8½ Sun@12:00p
(413) Philadelphia Eagles -9½ (-105) Sun@12:00p
(415) New Orleans Saints vs. (416) Kansas City Chiefs Over 50½ Sun@12:00p
(418) Carolina Panthers -14½ (-105) Sun@12:00p
(420) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4½ (-105) Sun@12:00p
(410) Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115) Sun@3:15p
(423) Arizona Cardinals -3 (-105) Sun@3:05p

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Week 11 Preview

Thanks to the Jets its already been a good week, maybe I should take the 1-0 start and just quit for now. Once again we put a poll up for the Sunday night game. What follows are my predictions of the line for each game, the actual line and the bet I am going to make. Due to my past record on games where I predicted the line, I will not bet on those games. As always we do not plan on betting on the Monday Night Football game.

Phi @ Cin
The Eagles have one of the top offenses in the league behind a very good passing game, that is averaging 7.1 yards an attempt. The Eagles have been averaging 28 points a game. In fact, the only thing holding this team down looks to be poor decisions by their head coach. This going to be bad news for the Bengals who have a bad defense and a bad pass defense. They allowed 31 points a game. I expect the Eagles to put up 35 points. The Bengals offense is poor across the board, they are bad at everything. I guess that is why they are averaging 14 points a game. The Eagles have a very good defense and are allowing 20 points a game. I expect the Bengals to score 14 points. Eagles -21

Min @ TB
The Vikings have a below average offense, even with the great AP. They have been averaging 23 points a game on offense. Tampa Bay has a top five defense and they do everything very well. They have been allowing 16 points a game. I only expect the Vikings to score 14 points. The Tampa Bay offense has been as bad as the Vikings and they are having trouble at RB, no one is healthy. They have been scoring 22 points a game. The Vikings defense is top five in everything, even their pass defense has improved. They have given up 32 points a game but a lot of this is behind interceptions for touchdowns and pathetic special teams. Over the season they have allowed 24 points a game. I expect Tampa Bay to only score 21 but I will not bet on the under because at some the Vikings bad luck turns into a trend. Tampa Bay -7

Bal & NYG
The Ravens offense averages 24 points a game behind one of the top rushing offenses in the league, 4.4 yards an attempt over the last three. The Giants have given up 20 points a game, with a top 10 defense, with the pass being better than the run. I think the Ravens will score 17 points this game, it will be a big test for Flacco. The Giants offense is the top running offense in the league, with 5.2 yards an attempt. The Ravens are the top rushing defense in the league, with 3.0 yards an attempt. This is a reason why they are allowing 17 points a game. The Giants have been averaging 30 points a game. I will split the difference and give the Giants 24 points. Giants -7

Oak @ Mia
The Raiders offense has gone from horrible to death, averaging 6 points a game over the last 3. I would have to look at the records but I don't think I have bet on the Raiders much. How can you forecast a team that has been averaging 6 points a game. Miami has been scoring 24 points a game which is right at Oakland's average. Even if we give the Raiders a huge benefit of the doubt and 10 points, its a huge Miami spread. I will stay away from this game unless the line is really out of whack. Dolphins -14

The Saints have a top three offense behind a very strong passing game, 8.1 yards an attempt. They are averaging 26 points a game on offense. Over the last three games, they have only averaged 21 points a game, but Reggie Bush should be back. The Chiefs are allowing 27 points a game on defense. They have a bottom 5 defense and are not very good at anything. I think the Saints will score 31 points this game. The Chiefs have one of the worse offenses in the league but it is improving over the last three games. They are averaging 23 points a game. The Saints have the second to worse pass defense in the league allowing 7.1 yards an attempt. The Saints are allowing 32 points over the last 3 games. I think the Chiefs will score 28 points this game. Saints -3

Hou @ Ind
A rematch from the miracle game earlier in the season. The Texans are averaging 23 points a game, behind a 4.3 yard an attempt per rush. The Colts have an average defense to match the average offense of the Texans. The Colts allow 22 points a game. I am going to go out on a limb and give the Texans 23 points a game. The Colts have a top 6 offense and a top 6 passing game, but its not where it use to be. I would blame this on the death of Marvin Harrison and whatever zombie is currently in his body. The Colts are averaging 21 points a game and their rushing offense is absolutely horrible. If they are going to run on a team its the worse rushing defense in the league the Texans, 4.5 yards an attempt. The Texans are allowing 28 points a game and I expect the Colts to score that. Colts -6

Chi @ GB
Unless we get confirmation that Orton is starting there is no way I am betting on this game. These teams are equal on offense and defense in points allowed, its pretty amazing. With Orton fully healthy I see this as a pick 'em with 3 points for home advantage. I am passing unless Orton is named the starter Saturday then we will go over more details. Packers -3

Det @ Car
I can't believe I was going to bet on the Lions. They were averaging 18 points a game and now Culpepper has a full week to learn the offense. The problem is the Panthers defense has only allowed 15 points a game. I think the Lions will be lucky and score 10 points. The Panthers have been averaging 25 points a game, but they are not getting a lot of total yards. The Lions have been allowing 30 points a game. I expect the Panthers who are averaging 4.3 yards an attempt to run over the Lions who are allowing 4.6 yards an attempt. I expect the Panthers to score 28 points. Panthers -18

Den @ Atl
The Broncos are only 2-6-1 ATS and the Falcons are one of the hot NFL teams. The Broncos offense has struggled the last three weeks only scoring 19 points a game instead of the 25 during the whole season. The amazing thing is they are only averaging 10 yards less a game, which means worse field position and more field goals. They still have a top 10 offense and a top 5 offense but they are very lifht at RB. The Falcons have an average defense that is very bad at stopping the run, 6.1 yards a run over the last 3. I expect the Broncos to score 24 points a game. The Falcons offense has been averaging 24 points a game. The Broncos have a horrible pass defense and that is the Falcons strength. The Broncos are allowing 32 points a game. I expect the Falcons to score 30 points. Falcons -6

Ari @ Sea
The Cardinals have the #1 offense in the NFL, let that sink in. Behind a 7.8 yards per pass attempt the Cardinals are scoring 30 points a game. The Seahawks have one of the worse defenses in the league and allow 7.3 yards per pass. Thier poor defense has allowed 26 points a game. I expect the Cardinals to score 32 points. The Seahawks offense has been poor because of a bad passing offense, I guess having no WR's would factor into this. The Cardinals have an average defense and a good run defense. The Seahawks are averaging 19 points a game and the Cardinals have been allowing 23 points. I see the Seahawks scoring 21 points this game. Due to this game being played in Seattle I will give them the 3 points for homefield. Cardinals -6

Stl @ SF
The Rams had a bried period of actually looking like an NFL team but that has passed. Their offense is now averaging 11 points a game over the last three weeks. The 49ers are allowing 31 points a game and the surprising stat is they are giving up the exact same yards the Rams are gaining. The 49ers actually have an average offense but when your offense keeps turning the ball over it becomes a big hurdle. I expect the Rams to score 17 points this game, above average because of a 49ers turnover or two. The 49ers offense is very bad because their passing offense is one of the worst in the league. Have people finally caught on to Martz's offense or is O'Sullivan/Hill the problem? The Rams defense is just bad at everything and allowing 29 points a game. The 49ers are coming off of a Monday night game so I expect them to be a little sluggish. I expect them to score 24 points this game. 49ers -7

SD @ Pit
Another game where the QB is questionable and probably a great reason to pass on the game. Or if he does play it won't be up to his usual performance. I will pass on this game, no reason to try and predict such an unknown as whether he will play and at what ability.

Ten @ Jac
As loyal readers know the Titans are now 8-1 ATS. I aruge that eventaully Vegas and gamblers will adjust these lines accordingly. Last year a few teams made it to 11-5 ATS, that would mean the Titans would go 3-4 the rest of the season. In 2006, only one team had 11 wins ATS and that was the Titans. I think they will revert towards the mean, even if the mean is 11 wins. So I will bet against them this game, no matter what the line is. I expect the Titans to be favored by a few points on this road game. Titans -3

Dal @ Was
Last week's Sunday night game, we left it to a vote. Suprisingly, 80% of you took the Giants and the 3 points. It turned out to be a good bet. I want to see if my readers are as smart as I think. The line I see is Cowboys getting a point, so basically a pick 'em game. If I am not as hung over as I was Sunday I will do a preview of the game and hopefully actually place my bets.

My Line Real Line My Bet
Eagles -21 Eagles -9 Eagles
O/U 49 42
Tampa Bay -7 Tampa Bay -4 Tampa Bay
O/U 35 39
Giants -7 Giants -7
O/U 41 41
Dolphins -14 Dolphins -11
O/U 34 39
Saints -3 Saints -5
O/U 59 50 Over
Colts -6 Colts- 8 Texans
O/U 50 50
Packers -3 Packers -4
Panthers -18 Panthers -14 Panthers
O/U 38 40
Falcons -6 Falcons -6
O/U 54 50
Cardinals -6 Cardinals -3 Cardinals
O/U 51 48
49ers -7 49ers -6.5
O/U 41 44
Titans -3 Titans -3 Titans