Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Week 13 Thursday Preview

Three games on Thanksgiving. One of my next projects will be to determine how I do on early games versus late games. My theory is that I get a little tired of doing games and this hurts my record. To back this up, I have had very good success on Thursday and Monday night games where I have only had a few games to look at.

Titans at Lions - Nov 27, 12:30 pm

The Titans have an above average offense that has been scoring 28 points a game. The Lions have the worst defense in the NFL and have been allowing 32 points a game. The Lions can't stop anything on defense and I expect the Titans to score 35 points this game. The Lions are awful on offense and the Titans are a top 5 defense. I think the Lions would be lucky to score the 15 a game the Titans are giving up, lets call it 14. It is amazing that the Titans are only favored by 11, I know they have struggled the last two games including a loss last week. Still, I find it hard to believe they will only win by 11. I am tempted to go the over but after seeing the Lions give up against the Bears with a similar number and blow out I am betting on the Titans
Teams Open O/U Projected Offense Defense Predicted
Titans -11 44 27.5 23.4 15 35 Titans
Lions 11 44 16.5 17.5 31.5 14

Seahawks at Cowboys - Nov 27, 4:15 pm

The Seahawks are a very bad team on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys are only a little bit better but that includes games with Brad Johnson at QB. Seattle has a decent rushing game and that happens to be the Cowboys weakness on defense. They are projected to score less than they average and less than the Cowboys give up. I think 21 is a conservative number, this is basically the game of the year for Seahawk players. The Cowboys have an average offense that is powered by their running game. The Seahawks have a below average defense but their problem is stopping the pass. I could see the Cowboys putting up 30 points this game. Still, that has me taking the Seahawks.
Teams Open Over

Seahawks 13 46.5 16.75 18.8 25.2 21
Cowboys -13 46.5 29.75 24.1 22.8 30 Cowboys

Cardinals at Eagles - Nov 27, 8:15 pm

The Eagles seem to be falling apart at the seems. They have been averaging 25 points a game and the Cardinals have been giving up 24 a game. Even if Westbrook doesn't play, lets give them the 25 they are predicted to score. The Eagles have only been giving up 21 points a game but that is behind a strong run defense. The Cardinals are scoring 29 points per game behind their passing offense. Sure the Eagles will be blizting but Joe Flacco was able to have a good week passing I think Warner should be fine. I expect the Cardinals to score at least 28 points.
Teams Open Over

Cardinals 3 47 22 28.9 24.1 28 Cardinals
Eagles -3 47 25 24.6 20.8 25

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