Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Week 10 Preview

A Thursday night game means an early preview and hopefully a third strong week in a row. To add a little more details, first I am looking at the yards per attempt on offense and defense. Next, I am making a list of where each team ranks per attempt. So it gives me an idea of how good their offense and defense stacks up in the league. The following are the previews, as always no Monday Night Football preview. I have also updated the comments section, so I will be able to respond to comments quickly.

One amazing stat is Denver is 1-6-1 ATS and I think this is a result of their inconsistent play on a week to week basis. The Broncos are averaging 24 points a game over the season but only 14 points a game over the last three. They have a top 5 rushing team but only rushed for 14 yards last week. Sure, they have had injuries but that is a big difference. Fortunately, they are facing a below average defense that is allowing 23 points a game. I expect the Broncos to score 20 points this game. The Browns have made a change at QB, but their big problem has been running the ball. If you are going to make a change at QB it is a good thing you are going against the 30th ranked passing defense. The Broncos are allowing 30 points a game. It's hard to figure out the new QB. I assume the Browns will score a little more than their 20 a game they are averaging. I expect them to score 23 points this game. Browns -3

Another game, another change of the QB for the Texans. The Ravens offense is relying on a strong running game but they passing offense has been improving especially over the past 3 weeks, 8.3 yards an attempt. The Texans defense has improved over the last 3 weeks, but it included games against DET, CIN and MIN. They are still one of the worse defenses in the league and the worse rushing defense. I expect the Ravens to score under their 3 game average (31) but still scoring 28 points. The Texans have an above average offense and I don't think it will do any worse with Rosenfuls, in fact it might even do better. They have been averaging 28 points a game over the last 3. The Ravens have a top 3 defense and the best rush defense in the league. I expect the Texans to score 21 points this game. Ravens -7

The Rams offense offense has returned to suckyness. The continue to have one of the worse offenses in the league. They have improved to 21 points a game over the last three. The Jets have been average on defense and allowing 20 points over the last three games. Seems pretty easy to me, I expect the Rams to score 21 points. The Rams defense is even worse than their offense. They have improved in the last three games giving up 6 points less a game but still the same amount of yards. The Jets have been increasing their yards per game but not their points. I expect the Jets to reach their season average of 26 points a game. Jets -5

The Bills have a below average offense and the main problem is a horrible running game, 3.4 yards an attempt over the last three games. The Patriots defense has improved on a point basis but not on a yard basis, still they are only allowing 311 yards a game. The problem is they have the worst pass defense in the league, its amazing they are playing as well as they are on defense. I expect the Bills to score their 23 points a game they have been averaging over the season. The Patriots have an average offense, but it has been improving, behind a top 5 running game. The Bills defense has been consistantly average, allowing 21 points a game all season and in the last three. I expect the Patriots to score the 21 points a game. Bills -2

The Packers offense has been consistant over the season and the last three games, 26 points a game. They have continued to struggle in the running game. The Vikings have a top 5 defense by yards and average. The problem is their special teams have been giving up a lot points. I expect the Packers to only score 23 points this game. The Vikings offense has been below average and the biggest problem has been their running game. They have had one good game but that was agaisnt the Bears, if you remove that they have scored 16 points a game over the last 3. This is what the Packers have been giving up the last 3 games. Packers -7

The Seahawks offense has averaged 255 yards a game over the season and even worse only 223 yards over the last 3 games. The Dolphins have been allowing 20 points a game during the season and the last 3. I expect the Seahawks to only score 14 points this game. The Dolphins offense has also been very consistant with 21 points over the season and each game. The Seahawks defense has improved by points but not by yards. I think the Dolphins will score 21 points this game. Dolphins -7

Both of these teams have had bad seasons, in records and ATS. The Jaguars have had an average offense, 14th in total, running and passing. It is a little suprising they are only averaging 20 points a game. The problem, is they have no big play threats and its hard to consistantly put together 15 play drives to score. The Lions have the worst defense in the league allowing 27 points a game. I expect the Jaguars to be able to score that many points. The Lions offense has a new QB and it could be a guy they just signed this week. The Jaguars are allowing 20 points a game and thats what the Lions have been scoring. I expect the Lions to get their 20 points. Jaguars -7

Even after last weeks loss ATS, the Titans are still 7-1. Before last week I would have said take the Bears, no questions asked. The problem isn't the 28 points a game they are giving up on defense. It is not the fact they struggled against the Lions. It is the fact that Grossman is probably going to be the starter. He looked pretty bad in the game in relief, with little to no accuracy. I would only take the Bears if I was getting more than 7 points. Titans -7

The Saints have a top three offense and are coming off of a bye week. Their scoring has been the result of a great season by Drew Brees. The Falcons have a below average defense and seem to have questionable opponents. The Saints have been averaging 27 points a game on offense and the Falcons have been allowing 20 a game, both numbers over a season. I see the Saints only scoring 24 points on offense. The Falcons have a top 10 offense and their passing game has been better than their running game. In fact, its suprising they have been only scoring 22 points a game. The Saints have a below average defense and a below average pass defense. I expect the Falcons to score 24 points. Falcons -0

The Panthers are 5-0 at home and 1-2 on the road. The Raiders just cut their former pro bowl CB who they signed to an offseason $70 million dollar deal after trading a second round pick for him. Sadly, this might be addition by subtraction because Hall has been horrible all season. The Panthers have an average offense, great passing and poor rushing. The Raiders have average defense, average passing and poor rushing defense. I expect the Panthers to score the 25 a game the Raiders are giving up, but I expect S.Smith to be blanketed all game by the best CB in the NFL. The Raiders offense has been getting worse throughout the season. I think they will be lucky to score their average of the season of 14 points a game. Carolina -11

This game has blood bath written all over it. The Chiefs loss a heartbreak last week to the Bucs. Their offense seems to be improving and they are scoring 20 points a game now. The Chargers defense has been giving up 24 points a game and I expect the Chiefs to score that. The Chiefs have been giving up 28 points a game and 5.4 yards a rush. The Chargers have been scoring 28 points a game with their running game struggling. I expect the Chargers to take advantage of the poor defense and score 35 points. Chargers -11

The Colts can't run the ball and the passing game has still been struggling. They are barely averaging 300 yards a game and only 21 points. They are facing the #1 defense in the Steelers. The Steelers have been allowing 14 points a game on defense. I think the Colts will be lucky to score 17 points this game on offense. The Steelers offense was struggling before the injury to Rothlesburger and now Leftwich is starting, thats a big step backwards. The Colts were allowing 25 points a game over the last 3 and thats what the Steelers were scoring. Even with Leftwich I expect the Steelers to score 21 points. Steelers -7

I have decided I will put the Sunday night game up as a poll this week, please vote and feel free to put your thoughts in the comments. I will post my thoughts Sunday morning.

You will notice that I only have 5 bets right now. They are two games off the board that hopefully will be open to bet on Sunday. There is also the Giants game. On the other hand, the one thing we learned was betting only 6 games is a horrible idea. If I only end up with these 5 games I will only bet half the money I have.

My Line BoDog Line My Bet
Browns -3 Browns -3
O/U 43 46
Ravens -7 Ravens -1 Ravens
O/U 49 42
Jets -5 off the board
O/U 47 off the board
Bills -2 Bills +4 Bills
O/U 44 41.5
Packers -7 Packers +2 Packers
O/U 39 45.5
Dolphins -7 Dolphins -9
O/U 35 43 Under
Jaguars -7 Jaguars -7
O/U 47 44.5
Titans -7 Titans -3
Falcons -0 Falcons -0
O/U 48 50
Panthers -11 Panthers -9.5
O/U 39 38
Chargers -11 Chargers -15
O/U 59 47.5 Over
Steelers -7 off the board
O/U 35 off the board


Brian said...

Bye weeks do make it tough to get enough games to bet on - good thing that's over this week.

I hate inter-division games between solid teams, because I think you can throw everything out the window. The Giants have looked very strong while the Eagles are inconsistent, but given that it's in Philly on a Sunday Night and the Giants do have significant holes, you can see Eli laying an egg and the Eagles taking it. Still, my theory is always to bet the better teams unless you feel good about a particular match-up or history

CubsDynasty said...

The Bye weeks have made it tough but going forward I am going to assume that 10 bets a week would be the best. That way anytime I have less than 10 bets, I will only use a percentage of that money. Some people refer to this as using units. The goal isn't to get 50% each week, it was always to get 8-10%.

I've had a tough time with both teams, going 1-2 ATS with each one. Its a tough call with Johnson's defense, either the opponent can't handle the blitzes and score a lot less than average. Or the exact opposite and they hit a number of big plays.

Perry said...

Somebody has to lose games in the NFC East and this year it seems to be the cowboys and eagles... Giants by at least 3

The Chiefs are very tempting @ -15, San Diego is not that good and a division game typically doesn't go final with more than a 10 point difference...

CubsDynasty said...

I just get the feeling that you are going to see a monster game from SD's running backs. Of course, the problem is that their defense still sucks. That is why I feel more comfortable with the over. Plus, do you really feel comfortable betting on Thigpen no matter how many points.

CubsDynasty said...

It looks like the Jaguars are having some problems and this might be enough to push me towards a lions bet