Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Week 11 Review & Thursday Night Preview

Week 11 was a poor week of 4-4 and I guess I should have stopped after Thursday night. You can read the recap of the early games in the blog and the afternoon games also went 1-1. The Jaguars fell apart against the Titans at the end of the game, continuing the Titans dominance ATS. I actually made a little money this week, I am not exactly sure how that worked out but I am not going to argue.

(307) New York Jets +3½ (-140) Thu@7:15p Win
(407) Houston Texans +8½ Sun@12:00p
(420) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4½ (-105) Sun@12:00p Win
(423) Arizona Cardinals -3 (-105) Sun@3:05p Win
(410) Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115) Sun@3:15p Loss
(413) Philadelphia Eagles -9½ (-105) Sun@12:00p Loss
(415) Saints vs. (416) Chiefs Over 50½ Sun@12:00p Loss
(418) Carolina Panthers -14½ (-105) Sun@12:00p Loss

Record: 4-4
Weekly Return: 2.49%
Cumulative Return: -80.3%

I am going to try something different this week, I have been waiting to do this until I have had a less successful week. Why spend time trying to predict the points of the teams when I can take advantage of all the research Vegas has done. By using the over/under and the spread I can backdoor engineer what Vegas thinks what each team is going to score. For example Thursday night's game has an over/under of 34.5 and the Steelers giving 10.5 points. That equates to the Steelers scoring 22.5 points and the Bengals scoring 12 points. What I like about this, is they are trying to set the line to get equal bets, so hopefully there will be some obvious bets.

The Steelers are projected at 22.5 points, they average 20.9 a game and the Bengals allow 24.9 a game. The Bengals have an average defense but I have a feeling their offense has put them in a lot of bad situations. I would expect the Steelers to score the 25 a game the Bengals are giving up. The Bengals are projected at 12 points on offense, lower than their 13.8 a game. The Steelers are the #1 defense and allowing 15 points a game. I expect the Bengals to struggle against the top defense and to be lucky to score 10 points.

Steelers -15
O/U 35

So I will bet on the Steelers, 1/10th of the remaining pot.

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