Week 11 Review & Thursday Night Preview

Week 11 was a poor week of 4-4 and I guess I should have stopped after Thursday night. You can read the recap of the early games in the blog and the afternoon games also went 1-1. The Jaguars fell apart against the Titans at the end of the game, continuing the Titans dominance ATS. I actually made a little money this week, I am not exactly sure how that worked out but I am not going to argue.

(307) New York Jets +3½ (-140) Thu@7:15p					Win
(407) Houston Texans +8½ Sun@12:00p					Win
(420) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4½ (-105) Sun@12:00p					Win
(423) Arizona Cardinals -3 (-105) Sun@3:05p					Win
(410) Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115) Sun@3:15p					Loss
(413) Philadelphia Eagles -9½ (-105) Sun@12:00p					Loss
(415) Saints vs. (416) Chiefs Over 50½ Sun@12:00p					Loss
(418) Carolina Panthers -14½ (-105) Sun@12:00p					Loss

Record: 4-4
Weekly Return: 2.49%
Cumulative Return: -80.3%

I am going to try something different this week, I have been waiting to do this until I have had a less successful week. Why spend time trying to predict the points of the teams when I can take advantage of all the research Vegas has done. By using the over/under and the spread I can backdoor engineer what Vegas thinks what each team is going to score. For example Thursday night's game has an over/under of 34.5 and the Steelers giving 10.5 points. That equates to the Steelers scoring 22.5 points and the Bengals scoring 12 points. What I like about this, is they are trying to set the line to get equal bets, so hopefully there will be some obvious bets.

CIN@PIT
The Steelers are projected at 22.5 points, they average 20.9 a game and the Bengals allow 24.9 a game. The Bengals have an average defense but I have a feeling their offense has put them in a lot of bad situations. I would expect the Steelers to score the 25 a game the Bengals are giving up. The Bengals are projected at 12 points on offense, lower than their 13.8 a game. The Steelers are the #1 defense and allowing 15 points a game. I expect the Bengals to struggle against the top defense and to be lucky to score 10 points.

Steelers -15
O/U 35

So I will bet on the Steelers, 1/10th of the remaining pot.