Thursday, November 13, 2008

Week 11 Preview

Thanks to the Jets its already been a good week, maybe I should take the 1-0 start and just quit for now. Once again we put a poll up for the Sunday night game. What follows are my predictions of the line for each game, the actual line and the bet I am going to make. Due to my past record on games where I predicted the line, I will not bet on those games. As always we do not plan on betting on the Monday Night Football game.

Phi @ Cin
The Eagles have one of the top offenses in the league behind a very good passing game, that is averaging 7.1 yards an attempt. The Eagles have been averaging 28 points a game. In fact, the only thing holding this team down looks to be poor decisions by their head coach. This going to be bad news for the Bengals who have a bad defense and a bad pass defense. They allowed 31 points a game. I expect the Eagles to put up 35 points. The Bengals offense is poor across the board, they are bad at everything. I guess that is why they are averaging 14 points a game. The Eagles have a very good defense and are allowing 20 points a game. I expect the Bengals to score 14 points. Eagles -21

Min @ TB
The Vikings have a below average offense, even with the great AP. They have been averaging 23 points a game on offense. Tampa Bay has a top five defense and they do everything very well. They have been allowing 16 points a game. I only expect the Vikings to score 14 points. The Tampa Bay offense has been as bad as the Vikings and they are having trouble at RB, no one is healthy. They have been scoring 22 points a game. The Vikings defense is top five in everything, even their pass defense has improved. They have given up 32 points a game but a lot of this is behind interceptions for touchdowns and pathetic special teams. Over the season they have allowed 24 points a game. I expect Tampa Bay to only score 21 but I will not bet on the under because at some the Vikings bad luck turns into a trend. Tampa Bay -7

Bal & NYG
The Ravens offense averages 24 points a game behind one of the top rushing offenses in the league, 4.4 yards an attempt over the last three. The Giants have given up 20 points a game, with a top 10 defense, with the pass being better than the run. I think the Ravens will score 17 points this game, it will be a big test for Flacco. The Giants offense is the top running offense in the league, with 5.2 yards an attempt. The Ravens are the top rushing defense in the league, with 3.0 yards an attempt. This is a reason why they are allowing 17 points a game. The Giants have been averaging 30 points a game. I will split the difference and give the Giants 24 points. Giants -7

Oak @ Mia
The Raiders offense has gone from horrible to death, averaging 6 points a game over the last 3. I would have to look at the records but I don't think I have bet on the Raiders much. How can you forecast a team that has been averaging 6 points a game. Miami has been scoring 24 points a game which is right at Oakland's average. Even if we give the Raiders a huge benefit of the doubt and 10 points, its a huge Miami spread. I will stay away from this game unless the line is really out of whack. Dolphins -14

The Saints have a top three offense behind a very strong passing game, 8.1 yards an attempt. They are averaging 26 points a game on offense. Over the last three games, they have only averaged 21 points a game, but Reggie Bush should be back. The Chiefs are allowing 27 points a game on defense. They have a bottom 5 defense and are not very good at anything. I think the Saints will score 31 points this game. The Chiefs have one of the worse offenses in the league but it is improving over the last three games. They are averaging 23 points a game. The Saints have the second to worse pass defense in the league allowing 7.1 yards an attempt. The Saints are allowing 32 points over the last 3 games. I think the Chiefs will score 28 points this game. Saints -3

Hou @ Ind
A rematch from the miracle game earlier in the season. The Texans are averaging 23 points a game, behind a 4.3 yard an attempt per rush. The Colts have an average defense to match the average offense of the Texans. The Colts allow 22 points a game. I am going to go out on a limb and give the Texans 23 points a game. The Colts have a top 6 offense and a top 6 passing game, but its not where it use to be. I would blame this on the death of Marvin Harrison and whatever zombie is currently in his body. The Colts are averaging 21 points a game and their rushing offense is absolutely horrible. If they are going to run on a team its the worse rushing defense in the league the Texans, 4.5 yards an attempt. The Texans are allowing 28 points a game and I expect the Colts to score that. Colts -6

Chi @ GB
Unless we get confirmation that Orton is starting there is no way I am betting on this game. These teams are equal on offense and defense in points allowed, its pretty amazing. With Orton fully healthy I see this as a pick 'em with 3 points for home advantage. I am passing unless Orton is named the starter Saturday then we will go over more details. Packers -3

Det @ Car
I can't believe I was going to bet on the Lions. They were averaging 18 points a game and now Culpepper has a full week to learn the offense. The problem is the Panthers defense has only allowed 15 points a game. I think the Lions will be lucky and score 10 points. The Panthers have been averaging 25 points a game, but they are not getting a lot of total yards. The Lions have been allowing 30 points a game. I expect the Panthers who are averaging 4.3 yards an attempt to run over the Lions who are allowing 4.6 yards an attempt. I expect the Panthers to score 28 points. Panthers -18

Den @ Atl
The Broncos are only 2-6-1 ATS and the Falcons are one of the hot NFL teams. The Broncos offense has struggled the last three weeks only scoring 19 points a game instead of the 25 during the whole season. The amazing thing is they are only averaging 10 yards less a game, which means worse field position and more field goals. They still have a top 10 offense and a top 5 offense but they are very lifht at RB. The Falcons have an average defense that is very bad at stopping the run, 6.1 yards a run over the last 3. I expect the Broncos to score 24 points a game. The Falcons offense has been averaging 24 points a game. The Broncos have a horrible pass defense and that is the Falcons strength. The Broncos are allowing 32 points a game. I expect the Falcons to score 30 points. Falcons -6

Ari @ Sea
The Cardinals have the #1 offense in the NFL, let that sink in. Behind a 7.8 yards per pass attempt the Cardinals are scoring 30 points a game. The Seahawks have one of the worse defenses in the league and allow 7.3 yards per pass. Thier poor defense has allowed 26 points a game. I expect the Cardinals to score 32 points. The Seahawks offense has been poor because of a bad passing offense, I guess having no WR's would factor into this. The Cardinals have an average defense and a good run defense. The Seahawks are averaging 19 points a game and the Cardinals have been allowing 23 points. I see the Seahawks scoring 21 points this game. Due to this game being played in Seattle I will give them the 3 points for homefield. Cardinals -6

Stl @ SF
The Rams had a bried period of actually looking like an NFL team but that has passed. Their offense is now averaging 11 points a game over the last three weeks. The 49ers are allowing 31 points a game and the surprising stat is they are giving up the exact same yards the Rams are gaining. The 49ers actually have an average offense but when your offense keeps turning the ball over it becomes a big hurdle. I expect the Rams to score 17 points this game, above average because of a 49ers turnover or two. The 49ers offense is very bad because their passing offense is one of the worst in the league. Have people finally caught on to Martz's offense or is O'Sullivan/Hill the problem? The Rams defense is just bad at everything and allowing 29 points a game. The 49ers are coming off of a Monday night game so I expect them to be a little sluggish. I expect them to score 24 points this game. 49ers -7

SD @ Pit
Another game where the QB is questionable and probably a great reason to pass on the game. Or if he does play it won't be up to his usual performance. I will pass on this game, no reason to try and predict such an unknown as whether he will play and at what ability.

Ten @ Jac
As loyal readers know the Titans are now 8-1 ATS. I aruge that eventaully Vegas and gamblers will adjust these lines accordingly. Last year a few teams made it to 11-5 ATS, that would mean the Titans would go 3-4 the rest of the season. In 2006, only one team had 11 wins ATS and that was the Titans. I think they will revert towards the mean, even if the mean is 11 wins. So I will bet against them this game, no matter what the line is. I expect the Titans to be favored by a few points on this road game. Titans -3

Dal @ Was
Last week's Sunday night game, we left it to a vote. Suprisingly, 80% of you took the Giants and the 3 points. It turned out to be a good bet. I want to see if my readers are as smart as I think. The line I see is Cowboys getting a point, so basically a pick 'em game. If I am not as hung over as I was Sunday I will do a preview of the game and hopefully actually place my bets.

My Line Real Line My Bet
Eagles -21 Eagles -9 Eagles
O/U 49 42
Tampa Bay -7 Tampa Bay -4 Tampa Bay
O/U 35 39
Giants -7 Giants -7
O/U 41 41
Dolphins -14 Dolphins -11
O/U 34 39
Saints -3 Saints -5
O/U 59 50 Over
Colts -6 Colts- 8 Texans
O/U 50 50
Packers -3 Packers -4
Panthers -18 Panthers -14 Panthers
O/U 38 40
Falcons -6 Falcons -6
O/U 54 50
Cardinals -6 Cardinals -3 Cardinals
O/U 51 48
49ers -7 49ers -6.5
O/U 41 44
Titans -3 Titans -3 Titans

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