Thursday, November 20, 2008

Week 12 Preview

I have changed things up drastically, from the analysis to the write-up.

Teams Spread O/U Projected Points Offense Avg Defense Avg My Projection My Bet
Texans 3 50.0 23.50 23.6 28.7 24
Browns -3 50.0 26.50 20.1 22.1 28
The Texans have an above average offense and a top 10 running attack. The Browns have a below average defense. I expect the Texans to score 24 points. The Browns have a below average offense but its been improving ; the Texans are horrible on defense, one of the league's worse teams. I expect the Browns to score 28.









Bills -3 43.5 23.25 21.9 21.8 27 Bills
Chiefs 3 43.5 20.25 16.5 27.3 20
The Bills offense keeps getting worse and worse, they aren't very good at anything. Fortunately, they play the Chiefs defense. I expect them to score the 27 a game the Chiefs are allowing. I think it’s a strech for the Chiefs to score 20 points. Taking the Bills.









Jets 5 40.5 17.75 28.9 22.1
Jets
Titans -5 40.5 22.75 24.4 13.1

I keep saying Vegas has to respond to the Titans and their great ATS record, this looks like the game, projecting only 18 points for the Jets.









Patriots 3 42.0 19.50 21.9 19.4

Dolphins -3 42.0 22.50 20.9 19.7

These teams look equally matched and the Patriots have been improving. Going to pass









49ers 10.5 46.5 18.00 23 27.5 23 49ers
Cowboys -10.5 46.5 28.50 23 22.9 30
The Cowboys defense is average at best, so I expect the 49ers to score around 23 points a game.









Buccaneers -9 41.0 25.00 21.9 16 28 Buccaneers
Lions 9 41.0 16.00 17.3 30.8 14
The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the league, I find it very hard to believe they are only going to score 25 points. I also find it hard to believe the Lions will score 16 points.









Eagles 1 39.5 19.25 26.4 19.3

Ravens -1 39.5 20.25 22.2 18

Another case of equally matched teams, pass.









Bears -9 43.0 26.00 24 23.1 28 Bears
Rams 9 43.0 17.00 14.4 31.7 14
This is a must win game for the Bears and the Rams have been absolutely horrible lately. I expect the Bears to score at least 28 points against the Rams. I expect the Rams to struggle and be lucky to score 14 points against a fired up Bears defense.









Vikings 1.5 40.5 19.50 22.3 23.4

Jaguars -1.5 40.5 21.00 21.2 21

These teams are equally bad, pass.









Panthers 1 42.5 20.75 22.2 15.5
Under
Falcons -1 42.5 21.75 23.1 19.8

These teams are allowing a total of 36 points a game, the over seems high to me. Both of these teams have been struggling recently on offense against poor defenses









Raiders 10 42.5 16.25 12.8 23.5 12
Broncos -10 42.5 26.25 24.8 27.1 25 Broncos
Last week I wondered how the Raiders could score over 10 points, it takes a 90+ yard punt return for a TD. I expect the Broncos to easily put put 25 points. There is no way the Raiders score more than 12 points.









Redskins -3.5 40.5 22.00 18.1 18.2 24 Redskins
Seahawks 3.5 40.5 18.50 19 25.7 17
The Redskins are socinr 18 points a game but the Seahawks are allowing 26 a game. The Redskins have been struggling lately but I expect them to score at least 24 points. The Seahawks will be lucky to score 17 points.









Giants -3.5 49.0 26.25 29.2 17 28 Giants
Cardinals 3.5 49.0 22.75 28.9 22.8 21
Tie goes to the defense and the Giants have a much better defense than the Cardinals. Plus, their pass rush should cause those fumble problems to come back to Warner.









Colts 3 49.5 23.25 22.4 22.4

Chargers -3 49.5 26.25 25.4 22.9

I am surprised the Colts Chargers defense is only giving up that many points a game. I am leaning the Colts but I am going to pass on this game. The Colts offense still seems to be struggling.




My Bet
Bills
Jets
49ers
Buccaneers
Bears
Panthers/Falcons Under
Broncos
Redskins
Giants

3 comments:

Brian said...

So it hit me this morning - from here on out (starting with this weekend) you should make a pick on every game and every over-under.

You don't have to be them all, but seeing as you're already doing the analysis, why not force yourself to make a pick and see how you do?

It might provide you with a ton of insight that you can build on for next year. I think this is a must from here on out, as it will give you that much more material to look back on and learn from.

Perry said...

Your nutz on the Jets Titans game... The Titans that easily 5 points better than the Jets no matter where the game is.... Plus Favre is due for an implosion

CubsDynasty said...

Brian, you make a good point. If I have time I will make picks on all the games and only make bets on the ones I wrote about. It wouldn't hurt and more data is more data. At first, I thought you meant bet all the games.

Sure, Favre is do for an implosion. On the other hand, Kerry Collins is due for about 5 implosions. This guy threw 1 TD and 6 INTs in 2006 when he was 34. Its two years later and at some point after he comes back to earth everyone is going to realize it was Kerry Collins.