Wednesday, September 24, 2008

NFL Week 4 Preview

After a great suggestion I am actually listing my picks for the weekend. Of course, with injuries, suspensions and deaths they could change before Sunday. I also stayed away from a lot of the games that I called the line on correctly after the last study. After this week I am going to look at specific teams and see what my record is for them, maybe they are some teams to ignore. I will probably post my actual picks Sunday morning if anyone is interested and if I remember.

Week 4

Sun, Sep 28


The Panthers let me down last week and their rush defense is pretty bad with 6.2 yards a carry. The bad news is that Atlanta averages 5.7 yards a rush. Atlanta has a horrible defense so I expect the Panthers to continue to score 21 points a game. I would give the Panthers 3 points because its their homefield. Carolina -3

These teams are both 1-2 ATS. So they are having bad seasons and its obvious why, they both give up 22 points a game. They both lost to the Browns by only scoring 10 points. The Bengals look to be a little better on defense and a little better on offense but not much. I think the Bengals should get some points for being at home and being a little bit better. Bengals -4.5

The Texans have allowed a lot more points than the Jac defense but not many more yards. In fact both of these defenses are pretty equal. The same with the offenses. The Texans are giving up 15 more points a game. I expect Jac to be a big favorite, but I still have some faith in the Texans. Jac -8

Believe it or not both of these teams are giving up around 28 points a game. The problem for the Chiefs is that their offense is a lot worse than the Broncos. The Broncos score 28 more points a game. Did I mention the Chiefs are on their third starting QB. At a neutral place this game would probably be 14 points and the Chiefs do have a home field advantage. Broncos -11

Both of these offenses are averaging 26 points a game. The Saints are averaging more yards but the 49ers have better yards per attempt. The Saints defense is even worse than the 49ers and allowing 5 more points a game but 100 yards more a game. I think these teams are equal but I think the Saints will get points for being at homefield. Saints -3

The Cardinals have averahe 4 more points a game on offense behind 8.5 yards a pass attempt. The Jets have been better at running (4.0) but worse passing (6.3). Both teams beat Miami but the Cardinals beat them by more. The Jets defense has been horrible, allowing 7.0 yards a pass the Cardinals strength. I see the Cardinals scoring the 27 points the Jets are giving up. I see the Jets scoring 21 points against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are spending all week on the east coast and we will see if that helps or hurts but I have to take away 3. Cardinals -3

I am still very high on the Packers even after last Sunday's loss. Both defenses are pretty poor on these teams. The Packers can't stop the run (5.7) and the Bucs can't stop the pass (7.2). These poor defenses play into the strengths of the offenses. I see both offenses getting their numbers GB 29 and TB 24. GB -5

The Titans are 3-0 ATS so eventually they are going to get too many points. The problem is that the Vikings haven't scored many points and the Titans haven't given up many points. On offense these teams have score 42 combined but only given up 28 combined. Thats an average of 35 and these teams have great run defenses. Expect a lot of 3 and outs. I expect both teams to actually pass and probably score the over. O/U 35

The Chargers are just a great offense at 36.7 points a game, the problem is they are allowing 31.3 points a game. The Raiders run defense has been good but they are still allowing 24 points a game, probably because their offense is putting them in bad situations. I see the Chargers probably getting 10 points at a neutral field but you have to give the Raiders home field points. Chargers -7

STL is 0-3 ATS and at some point they are going to be 40 point under dogs. They are averaging 10 points a game and giving up almost 39 points a game. Their defense is horrible and they cut a starting CB. Buf is averaging 16 more points a game on offense and 22 less on defense. I really think Buf could be 20 point favorites. Lets give STL a home field advantage and a thats a large line advantage. Bills -15

These two teams have similar defenses giving up around 20 points a game and about the same yards an attempt. The problem is that the Redskins offense is a lot worse than the Cowboys by about 12 points game. I could see the Redskins scoring their 21 a game. I see the Cowboys splitting the difference of their offense and the Redskins defense giving them about 25 points a game. Plus home field. Cowboys -7

The Eagles are a very banged up team. I've been pretty wrong on the Bears for most games and I believe I am 1-2. After this week I am going to look at my record with each team. The Eagles defense has been great against the run the only thing the Bears offense is good at. The Bears defense has been great against the pass the only thing the Eagles are good at. This has defensive struggle written all over it. I find it hard to believe these teams will score over 36 a game, their defensive averages. O/U 35
Mon, Sep 29


My line BoDog My Bet
Carolina -3 Carolina -7 Falcons +7
Bengals -4.5 Bengals -3.5

Jaguars -8 Jaguars -8 Texans +8

Broncos -11 Broncos -10

Saints -3 Saints -6 49ers +6
Cardinals -3 Cardinals -3 Cardinals -3
Packers -5 Packers 0 Packers

Chargers -7 Chargers -7 Raiders +7
Bills -15 Bills -8.5 Bills -8.5
Cowboys -7 Cowboys -11 Redskins +11
Bears/Eagles 35 Bears/Eagles 40.5 Under 40.5

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