Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Results of games based on predicted spread

As I mentioned in my week 3 review I thought it would be interesting to see how I have done in games where I had correctly predicted the spread and how I did in games where the spread was greater than one point. The results are pretty stunning even for just two weeks of results (week 1 I didn't type out predictions).

Week 2 results:
Lines I predicted 1 2 0
Lines that were bigger 4 1 2

Week 3 results:
Lines I predicted 0 2 0
Lines that were bigger 7 4 0

Lines I predicted 1 4 0
Lines that were bigger 11 5 2

That is a huge difference. I am only 20% successful when I get the line correct and still bet on the game. The other games, where I see differently than the line I am at 69%. Both weeks I predicted 6 lines correctly and still thought I had some knowledge of the games to win, I was obviously very wrong. I will probably wait another week or two to get more results but at this rate I will just skip games that I predicted the line in.

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