Thursday, September 11, 2008

Week 2 Preview

We are done with week 1 and now on to week 2, or some people call it jump to conclusions week. My goal is to try and preview the games quickly and guess the point spread and than look at the point spread in another post to see how close, hopefully this will help determine who I am willing to bet on.

Sun, Sep 14


I am still not sold on the Bears, even after the suprising upset of the Colts. The Bears can't expect to win games with 136 passing yards. I see Carolina having the same success they had in week one and putting up 24-26 points. I don't see the Bears team matching the same points as the Chargers (24) so I am think more in the 20 area. We're talking 4-6 points without adding the 3 for home field. Panthers -8

What happened to the Jac running game? They only had 33 yards last week and face a Bills defense that only gave up 85 yards. The offensive line problems continue for Jac and its hard to see them increasing their 10 points a game much. I give them a generous 14 points preview. The problem is their defense didn't look that good against the Titans and the Bills are looking better offensively even if its after one week. I just don't believe in the Bills yet and would consider this a 17-14 game without thinking of home field. I know home field would make it a puch but with the offensive line problems and the bandwagon of the Bills I am thinking: Bills -3

Both teams had offensive problems in week 1. Oakland did score 14 points but all in the fourth quarter of a blowout. Kansas City at least played good defense against a team that still has a number of weapons. Kansas City is 9-1 ATS versus Oakland in the last 10 games. Their only loss coming in their last game. I assume this is a pick 'em game with KC getting 3 because of homefield. I would say to take the Raiders because they do have some talent on offense but their HC admitted he doesn't have any input on Defensive play calling, that seems like a problem. I would say take KC but they are talking about rotating 2 QBs. I will probably pass on this game unless the O/U is 40ish. KC -3

It's amazing to know one of these teams will start the season 0-2. I look at the Colts loss as a team playing their first game in 11 months with their starting QB and missing their center. The Vikings are in worse shape, they are without their stud LT for 3 more games. Dwight Freeney should have a monster game. I see the Colts scoring more than the Packers, around 28-31 points. I still see the Vikings scoring around last week's number with 21. I see more possibility in the Colts number so even with homefield advantage: Colts -7

I wish I had seen the Saints game because statistically they had huge numbers, 337 passing and 101 running. Even worse, I did get to see the Redskins game and its obvious they are still learning the west coast offense. I see the Saints scoring the same or more points against the Redskin whose defense isn't as good as TB, 26-28 points. The good news for the Redskins is that the Saints defense is not as good as the Giants. Yet, the Saints have Ed Orgeron who is a great DL coach and a crazy person according to the book Meat Market ( So I expect Washington to score 14-17 points. Judging that this is in Washington and using conservaitve estimates I see: Saints -6

The Rams were horrible in week one. This is one of those games that I expect the line to be ridiculous because you have the public piling on the Giants because they are the Champions. I am not completely sold on the Giants and think they are a 9 to 10 win team. Even a team as bad as the Rams have to cover a few spreads. I see the Giants as big favorites maybe: Giants -10

I was really high on the Packers to start the season and they did enough in Week 1 for me to continue to believe. Their 24 points was a good showing against the Vikings and a missed FG and some questionable decision should have led to more points. The Lions played the Falcons and thats the only reason they looked decent. They lost by 13 points to the Falcons. I expect the same margin with the Packers, but take away 3 for home field. Packers -10

Neither of these teams really excite me. The Titans have an issue with Young who is hurt and doesn't want to play football. The Bengals, well they resigned Chris Henry. The thing I see going in both of these teams favors is that they are playing a worse defense then they played in week 1. So instead of scoring a total of 27 points, I could talk myself into an O/U of 40. I will probably pass.

These teams combined to give up 57 points and only score 23. Seattle has been caught (destroyed) by the injury bug (plague) and the 49ers still suck. It was almost a close game for Seattle before the fake FG and then they fell apart. I would consider these teams about equal but give Holmgren a big advantage over Nolan. Thats 3 points right there. Plus you have the best home field advantage in football, so thats another 4 points. Seattle -7

Atlanta played Detriot, so forgive me if I don't have much faith in their numbers. I usually love Tampa Bay but it sounds like Gruden and Garcia are having some major issues and Griese has been called the starter. The offense scored a respectable 20 points on 352 of total yards. Its the defense that gace up the 438 yards and 10.5 per passing attempt. Tampa is the better team and normally I would expect a 8-9 point line. The issues with Garica, Gruden and Griese tell me to back away slowly. The only way I am playing this game is if its TB -8 or higher I'll take a chance on the money line.

Arizona's defense did not play very well against the 49ers giving up 5.4 yards a run and 9.2 yards a pass attempt. They were the receipients of a number of turnovers. Miami is coming off a 1-15 season and played the Jets close. They had absolutely not running game this week and it will be interesting to see what they can do against Arizona. They gave up 20 points, 181 pass yards and 8.2 an attempt to Favre, they face another old QB with better WR's. I think 24 points is in the Cards (sorry one crappy pun). I think Miami could add to their total and get to 17 points. Arizona doesn't get a homefield advantage in my book so: Arizona -7

The Jets won by 6 points over the Dolphins and the Patriots beat the Chiefs by 7 points. I think these two teams are evenly matched. They both have good defenses partly due to playing crappy teams in week 1. I think the thing no one is talking about is SpyGate. Bellichek wants to win this game and probably knock Favre out. A game that probably sees the Jets getting 3 points because its their homefield, this has money line Patriots written all over it. Jets -3

I didn't get to watch the SD loss but their defensive numbers aren't horrible. I am going with the theory that Merriman at 60% was probably a horrible idea for the team. They have been known to get no pass rush without him so it will be interesting to see what kind of pressure they can get. Denver looked good but the Raiders made them look great. If this was a week 1 game I bet the game would be even. The new Broncos stadium is not the advantage it use to be. With the ways two teams played I am expecting a bigger line for the game and a money line chance with SD. Broncos -4

I love the Ravens, I think their defense will be a lot better because of the injuries last year. They looked unbelievable against the Bengals, who despite their problems have at least an above average offense. The Texans looked horrible and their 21 point defecit looked like a 49 point loss. I just can't imagine betting on a rookie QB on his first road game giving 5+ points. This should be a pick 'em game but I am thinking the stinker of week 1 for Houston makes it. Baltimore -2

The Cleveland defense, never their strength, played very poorly against Super Bowl favorite Cowboys. They gave up 487 total yards, they were probably lucky it was only 28 points. Pittsburgh destroyed the Texans. Road team is 7-3-1 ATS when these two teams play and Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine. Everything lines up for Pittsburgh. They are probably 6 point favorites and if so, I would take Cleveland but not to win just giving the points: Pittsburgh -6
Mon, Sep 15


Its to early to pick this game, that’s what Monday during the day is for.

My Line
Panthers -8 Panthers -3
Bills -3 Bills +5.5
KC -3 KC -3.5
Colts -7 Colts -2.5
Saints -6 Saints -1
Giants -10 Giants -9
Packers -10 Packers -3
Ten/Cin 40 Ten/Cin 37
Seattle -7 Seattle -7
TB -8 TB -7
Arizona -7 Arizona -7
Jets -3 Jets -1
Broncos -4 Broncos +1
Baltimore -2 Baltimore +4.5
Pittsburgh -6 Pittsburgh -6.5

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