Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Week 3 Preview

I tried to give a little more detail on picking the games, I usually pay a lot of attention to yard per attempt for pass and run. So I tried to add a few of those numbers in my reviews. Also, since this is early because of my trip to Manhattan I will probably change my mind on a game or two. I still haven't seen the injury reports. As usual, all lines predicted before seeing actual lines.

Sun, Sep 21


The Kansas City offense is very bad, along with averaging only 237 yards on offense they can't run or pass very well. Call it coaching, call it injuries, call it what you want but they are only averaging 9 points a game, including a game against the Raiders. Best case scenario I see them scoring 14 points. The Kansas City defense is not very good either and I see Atlanta scoring their average of 21 points. I will probably pass on this game because giving points with a rookie QB worries me. Atlanta -7

The Raiders actually have a better yard per run than the Bills and more total yards. The Bills have been winning through the air and that’s Oakland's weakness. The Bills are averaging 27 points a game and I don't see that changing. The Bills defense has been great but its been against a decimated line in Jax and a poor running team in Seattle. Still, I find it hard to believe Oakland could score more than 17 points. Bills -10

These two teams look equal, basically same points in offense and defense. Tampa has shown a weakness in the passing offense but I don't see Orton taking advantage of this. The Bears might be averaging 23 points a game but that involves a special teams TD and the Briggs TD. I still think the Bears and overrated and will take TB. The spread should be -7 but I am guessing its closer, probably only three or four points. TB -7

I am still on the Panthers bandwagon and they get Steve Smith back. The Vikings are changing QB's and one of the 0-2 ATS teams so expect them to get a few more points. The Vikings actually have more offensive yards a game than Carolina. The defenses are about equal with the Vikings being worse at defending the pass. I see the Panthers scoring their average of 24 points. I see the Vikings with a little improvement and getting 21 points. Carolina -3

There is one way for the Patriots to get their offense on track and that’s to play a defense allowing 25.5 points a game. Miami can't stop the pass (11.4 play) and the Patriots have been pretty good their (7.1). I expect a break out game and somewhere around 24-28, especially with it being a home game. The Dolphins offense has been very bad and they play a very good defense in New England. I see them lucky to score 10 points. Now the Dolphins are 0-2 ATS so I expect them to get a few points. I don't expect a line of 14 points (I was completely wrong it opened at -13.5), I expect something more reasonable of: New England -8

If I keep betting against the Giants eventually I have to be right. The Giants have covered their last 7 games and that’s as far back as I can see without putting more effort into it. You have a Bengals offense averaging 8.5 points a game against a defense only allowing 10 points a game. Only Sunday is the last game in Yankee Stadium and something tells me the crowd at Giants stadium won't be as much as an advantage. I am taking the Bengals moneyline because it should be a huge payoff. If you are going to be on an upset, at least you know the offense of the Bengals could put a ton of points. Still I'll take a guess: Giants -12

I can't remember where I read the quote but basically a player said everyone is banged up after week 2. Well except for the two teams that got a bye week because of the Hurricane. The Titans defense has been unbelievable with 8.5 a game. The Texans allowed 38 against the Steelers. Kerry Collins through 6 interceptions two years ago to one touchdown when he started. He is not the answer. I think they will score their average of 21 and see the Texans scoring 17. I will probably take the points and bet Texans because of the bye week. Titans -4

The Cardinals are averaging 365 yards on offense but only 2.7 yards a run. At some point defenses are going to just play pass and force them to try and run. The Redskins have a good defense so I expect the Cardinals to score less, plus it’s a west coast team playing in the east coast, 21 points. The Redskins have decent offensive numbers and in theory Campbell has started to look better. Of course, this was against a Saints defense never known to be very good against the pass. I would take the average of 18 points a game. I am also 0-2 on my Washington calls, so I might ignore this game completely. Cardinals -3.

The Broncos offense has been out of this world, 463 yards a game. The Saints still suck on defense, 29 points a game. Even being conservative I see the Broncos putting up 30 points. The Saints have averaged 24 points a game and the Broncos have given up 26 a game. The Broncos have been very poor at pass defense, so I expect the Saints to score 28 a game. Give the Broncos the 3 for home, I don't think they deserve it: Broncos -5 O/U 58

The Mike Martz revenge game. Also, Jon Kitna does not seem happy about Martz being let go. Both of these offenses are averaging 23 points a game. The 49ers have much better averages than the Lions. The Lions defense is horrible also where the 49ers make me wonder how they have given up 26.5 a game. The Lions defense is giving up 15 more points a game, if you split that because the offenses are equal you get: 49ers -7.5

These teams are both 0-2 ATS and your guess is as good as mine about who will not go 0-3. Seattle's problem has been their defense they can't stop the pass. The Rams can't stop anything allowing 39.5 to Seattle's 33.5 a game. Atleast the Seahawks have score 20 points a game, the Rams only 8 a game. Seattle still has a home field advantage so I expect a big spread for an 0-2 team. There is no way I am betting on this game these teams are horrible. Seattle -10

I am still high on the Ravens and they got a week off to teach Flacco more of the offense. The Browns lost a game off of Sunday night, so they are on short rest. Cleveland is averaging 8 points a game and the Ravens are allowing 10. I'll be generous and give the Browns 10 points. The Ravens are averaging 17 points and the Browns are giving up 19 points a game. Lets call it 17 points a game. Ravens -7

These teams are 2-2 ATS over the last two years. The Colts are only averaging 39 yards running a game (2.3 yards a rush). Sure some of that is the Vikings but most of it is injuries. Jac has been allowing 18 points a game and 7.8 yards an attempt. I am feeling generous and think the Colts will score 21, it is a home game. If Jac was ever going to get their running game going its against a team alowing 4.9 yards a run. The Colts have allowed 22 a game but that includes the Bears crappy TD. Jac is only scoring 13 a game. I'll give Jac 14 a game. Colts -7

It's almost time for the McNabb injury, almost. The player who is injured right now is Big Ben. The Steelers have scored 24 points a game and the Eagles have given up 22. With the injury I say they only get 17 points a game. The Eagles have scored 37.5 points a game and the Steelers have only allowed 11.5. Even if you take the average of that its 24.5. The Steelers have been great on defense, so I will round it down to 21. Eagles -4 O/U 38

I still really like the Packers despite their near meltdown to the Lions. I also expect a lot of people to pile on the Cowboys. These teams are pretty equal in offense and defense. Green Bay has been having problems with their rushing defense (5.2 an attempt). Dallas has been a little worse on their passing defense. At a neutral field this game is a pick 'em, so give Green Bay their 3 points. GB -3

My Line:BoDog:
Atlanta -7Atlanta -6
Bills -10Bills -9.5
TB -7TB +3
Carolina -3Carolina +3.5
New England -8New England -13
Giants -12Giants -13.5
Titans -4Titans -5.5
Cardinals -3.Cardinals +3
Broncos -5Broncos -6
O/U 58O/U 51
49ers -7.549ers -4
Seattle -10Seattle -10
Ravens -7Ravens -2.5
Colts -7Colts -6
Eagles -4Eagles -3.5
O/U 38O/U 45
GB -3GB +3

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