Thursday, October 2, 2008

Week 5 Preview

This week I will not be betting on any game that I called the line correctly, plus or minus a point. I am only betting on the over/under where its a large difference between my projection and the actual line. I called 6 games lines correctly. I decided to shy away from the Bears spread because I have performed poorly in their games this year and I thought the over/under was more attractive. Its a crazy week because they are a number of questions at QB for teams. I am avoiding all of these games because of the question marks. Below are the games, sans Monday Night Football.

Week 5

Sun, Oct 05


These two teams are a combined 7-0 ATS. Loyal readers know I am a big fan of Baltimore but this is tough because if the teams weren't playing each other I would probably bet against both of them. These teams are about equal on offense with the Titans a little bit better passing per attempt. The Ravens are allowing 186 yards a game, it hasn't been against the best offenses but they are NFL teams. The Titans have allowed a lot more yards but less points. These teams are pretty equal and the game is probably going to come down to a turnover or two. I wouldn't bet on the over/under because I see one team having a few turnovers and then self destructing, unfortunately I don't know which team. Give the Ravens the advantage since its thier home. Baltimore -3

The offense of the Bears looks very similar to that of the Lions. The Bears average a few more points a game because of special teams and turnovers that have gone in their favor. The Bears defense is averaging 20 points a game and that’s in line with what the Lions are scoring. I feel comfortable with the Lions scoring 20 points. The question is do the Bears score their 24 a game or the 38 the Lions are giving up. The Lions can't stop the run or the pass and the Bears are a well balanced team. Still its the Bears, so I will error on the side of caution and go with 30 points. I will give the Lions 3 points for hosting the game. O/U 54 Bears -7

I am going to assume Rodgers is playing and if he doesn't play I will pass on the game. The Falcons are really good at running the ball, against bad teams on astro turf. The Packers have a poor run defense (5.2) but they don't play on turf. So I see Atlanta scoring 17 points a game. The Packers have been unable to run the ball but they have had success passing, the Falcons defense hasn't stopped anyone. I see the Packers getting their average of 28. O/U 45 Packers -11

The Chiefs are a bad team with a low scoring offense and a poor defense. Their defense has allowed 400 yards a game, its surprising they have only given up 21 points. I see the Panthers scoring more than their 23 a game because of their ability to pass the ball and I expect them to score 25-28. The Panthers defense has been strong only allowing 17.5 a game, close to KC's 16.2 points a game. Plus there is another game of tape on Huard, so I will put them at 15 and the low end of the Panthers range. O/U 40 Panthers -10

The Chargers offense is averaging 35 points a game. The problem is they are allowing 28 points a game. The Dolphins have an absolutely horrible defense, they are allowing 8.2 yards a pass attempt with the Chargers averaging 9.0 an attempt. This favors the Chargers scoring their average of 35 points. The Dolphins came out with a new offense but now its on tape for the Chargers. The Dolphins are averaging the exact yard attempts that the Chargers are giving up, so I expect them to score the 28 a game. O/U 63 Chargers -7

Some people argue that either of these teams could win any other division in the NFL other than the NFL east. The Eagles can't run (3.5 att) and no one can run against them (2.6). In fact the Eagles defense has been great only allowing 245 yards a game. I think the Redskins will have a tough time averaging 21.5 a game and look for them to score 17 a game. The Eagles have average 28 points a game and the Redskins have allowed 20 a game. I see the Eagles splitting the difference and scoring 24. O/U 37 Eagles -7

The Giants come off a bye week which is usually a positive but they are without their top WR for the game because of suspension. Seattle would love to have just a healthy WR. Suprisingly both these teams are averaging around 26 points a game on offense. The problem is the Seahawks are allowing 27 points a game on defense. Their big weakness is passing defense and I don't expect the Giants to pass as well without Burress. So I expect the Giants to only score 21 points this game. The Seahawks have a great running offense and their passing offense should improve. I expect them to score more than the 14 a game the Giants are allowing. I would put them at 17 a game. O/U 38 Giants -4

There offenses are exactly the same both averaging about 18 points a game and 313 yards. Both of these defenses have allowed 340 yards a game, but the Texans have allowed 11 points a game more. I see this game as a very close game, with the Colts getting a few points. Colts -2

TB has averaged 25 points a game on offense behind a strong running game. The Broncos are allowing 35 points a game on defense behind a poor pass defense (9.8). It looks like their run defense is decent because teams are passing for 400 yards a game. I see TB scoring 28 points this game. The Broncos offense is scoring 33.2 points a game behind both a strong passing and rushing attack. The TB defense is very strong against the run and has been strong against the pass, only allowing 20 points a game. I expect the Broncos to score only 24 points a game. I do see them getting 3 points for the homefield. O/U 52 TB -1

Both of these offenses have averaged 27 points a game but the Cardinals have averaged almost 60 yards a game more and have a better passing offense. Unfortunately, they have a QB who has a major fumbling problem. The Cardinals defense is allowing 26 points a game and even more yards an attempt than the Bills are averaging. So I expect the Bills to score 28. The Bills defense has been very strong only allowing 16 points a game and having a strong passing defense. I see the Cardinals scoring 21 points a game. O/U 49 Bills -7

The Patriots defense has allowed 20 points a game and the run defense has been a major problem with 5 yards an attempt. This is the strength of the 49ers and I see them getting their average of 24 points a game. The Patriots have been struggling on offense only scoring 16 points a game a little worse than the 24 the 49ers are giving up. I will split the difference and give the Patriots 20 points a game. O/U 44 49ers -4

Believe it or not these two teams are equal on defense allowing 22 points a game. The problem is the Cowboys are scoring 30 points a game on offense and the Bengals are only scoring 13 points a game. That’s a 17 point difference and Palmer might not even play. I am not betting on this game because of the Palmer question but I see the Cowboys winning big. Cowboys -17

The Steelers are another team with QB questions. Both of these offenses are averaging 19 points a game but Jac is averaging 50 yards more a game. The problem for Jac is that the Steelers are only allowing 74 yards a game (2.9 attempt) and that’s the Jac strength. So I expect Jac to only score 14 points. The Steelers, assuming Ben plays, are passing well and thats the weakness of Jac defense. So I expect Pitt to score 21 a game, what Jac is giving up. With the injury to Ben I will give Jac the homefield advantage points. Pitt -4
Mon, Oct 06


My Line Bodog Line My Pick
Baltimore -3 Baltimore +3 Baltimore 3
Bears -7 Bears -3.5

Bears/Lions 54 44.5 Bears/Lions OVER
Packers -11

Packers/Falcons 45

Panthers -10 Panthers -10

Panthers/KC 40 38.5

Chargers -7 Chargers -7

Eagles -7 Eagles -6

Redskings/PHI 37 42.5

Giants -4 Giants -7.5 Seahawks +7.5
Seahawks/NYG 38 43.5

Colts -2 Colts -3

TB -1 TB +3.5 TB Moneyline
TB/Broncos 52 48

Bills -7 Bills 0 Bills 0
Bills/Cardinals 49 44.5

49ers -4 49ers +3 49ers Moneyline
Patriots/49ers 44 41

Cowboys -17 Cowboys -17

Pittsburgh -4 Pittsburgh +4

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