Thursday, October 16, 2008

Week 7 Preview

I apologize for the delay in posting a preview. I know everyone enjoys reading this during the work week and sticking it to the man. Unfortunately, the man is sticking it to me by blocking my gambling/football sites. I have made a few changes to my schedule and I should be able to post this on Thursday or Friday going forward. I would like to recommend the link to the right for Stock Lemon. He has been doing a great job at his football picks and I would suggest checking them out. Its a great website and he touches on all sports. The previews and picks are below:

Week 7

Sun, Oct 19


The Chargers are averaging almost 30 points a game this season but only 23 points the last 3 games, this is due to the injuries of LT. The good news is their defense is only allowing 15 points a game over the last 3 games. The Bills are allowing 26 a game over the last 3 games and I see the Chargers matching that. The Bills have been running well and the Chargers have had a problem stopping the run. I see the Bills scoring thier average of 24 a game. Since the Chargers are going from the west coast to the east coast I am giving the Bills 4 points for home field. Bills -2

The Saints have improved their defense over the last three games, but it probably has something to do with their opponents (Oak, Min and SF). The problem is the Saints defense can't stop the run and the Panthers have a beat up offensive line. The Panthers strength has been passing. I expect the Panthers to score 21. The Panthers have had a great defense but their opponets have been really poor on offense. I see the Saints scoring 28. Give the Panthers the 3 for home field. Saints -4

The Bears offense is averaging aaround 25 points a game and its behind a strong passing game. This is key because the Vikings continue to be very good against the run. I exppect the Bears to score 21 points behind an improving Orton (yes I just wrote that sentence). The Bears have also been pretty good against the run and thats the Vikings strength, though they have suffered the last 3 weeks. I just don't see the Vikings scoring much more than the Bears defense, so I expect 17 points this game for them. Bears -4

The Steelers have been struggling on offense, unable to run the ball and only averaing 21 points a game and 18 over the last 3 weeks. The Bengals defense hasn't been that bad considering the poor field position the offense has put them in. I expect the Steelers to score 21. The Bengals are horrible on offense, 15 points a game and thats around the Steelers average. I expect the Bengals to be lucky to score 14 points. Steelers -7

The Titans are 5-0 ATS, I am going to bet against them until the get closer to .500 ATS. Chiefs.

The Ravens are still averaging 5.2 yards a run over 3 games and all season. They are just running the ball less which is why they have averaged 11 points over the last 3 games. The Dolphins can't stop the run so I expect them to give up their 21 a game. The Dolphins are averaging 28 a game over the last 3 and racking up 400 yards a game. The question is can the Wildcat fool the Ravens defense. The Ravens are giving up 22 a game over the last 3 so I will split the difference and give the Dolphins 25. Dolphins -3

The Giants offense is averaging 28 points a game but have played some very poor defenses. The 49ers are giving up 28 points a game. The Giants are coming off a Monday Night Football game, so I expect 26 points on offense. The 49ers are scoring 23 points a game on offense. The Giants defense is giving up 21 points a game on defense but have been pretty bad at both the pass and run. I expect the 49ers to score 21. I will give the Giants their homefield advantage of 3 points. Giants -8

The Cowboys have a number of injuries and a player suspension that makes this game harder to call. Can the Cowboys match their 26 points a game without Romo (maybe) and no Felix Jones. They also added Roy Williams, who has been horrible all season. I expect the Cowboys to be 10 point favorites but I don't want to bet on this game at all. Cowboys -10

Both of these teams have covered the spread once this season. Both of these defenses have been very poor allowing 32 points a game during the season. The Lions have improved a little bit over the last 3 games. Any improvement on Defense has been met with worse results on offense for the Lions. Meanwhile, the Texans are starting to improve on offense. I consider both of these defenses poor and the Texans offense a lot better, they are averaging 18 points a game more than the Lions over the last 3. I say you split the difference. Texans -9

I asked when, if ever, the Colts offense would return. Well last week they finally looked like what we thought they were. They are now averaging 28 points a game on offense over the last three behind a lot of passing. The Packers are allowing 25 points a game behind a 4.7 yard per run attempt. Their injured defense could have a very tough time defending the run and than dealing with Manning. I expect the Colts to score 31 points. The Packers offense has been slowing down and they continue to have major running problems but should improve that against a poor run defense for the Colts. I expect the Packers to get their 24 points a game. I will give the Packers their 3 points for home field and its not turf which could hur the Colts. Colts -4

The Jets are averaging 37 points a game on offense but only 311 yards a game and their average per attempt has dropped over the season. This means they are getting great field position but at some point this has to stop. I don't know if the Raiders are the team to stop them. I expect the Jets to only score 24 points a game and not get all the breaks they have been receiving. The Raiders have been averaging 14 points a game on offense over the last 3. They are still running very well but the Jets have only been allowing 2.7 yards a rush over the last 3. This might be due to teams just passing on them because of a weak pass defense. I only expect the Raiders to score 14 but give them 3 for home field and a cross country game. Jets -7

The Browns played their best game of the season last week and the Redskins played their worse. The Browns are only averaging 22 points a game over the last three. They are having passing problems and the Redskins are very good against the run. I expect the Browns to score 20. The Redskins are averaging 22 points a game behind a great running game but Portis is questionable. The Browns are only allowing 18 points game. Portis is to big of a question mark so I will just pass on this game. Until I see the Redskins are huge favorites. Redskins -3

Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS and the Seahawks are 1-4 ATS. So I expect Vegas to over compensate for the poor records. Seattle over the last 3 have been running great and scoring 20 points a game. Tampa Bay is stopping the run very well and only allowing 14 points a game. This is bad news for an offense on a backup QB without any healthy WR's. The Seahawks will be lucky to score 14. Tampa Bay has been scoring 23 points a game and Seattle has been allowing 28 a game. Tampa has been running well and the Seahawks have been having a hard time stopping the run. I expect Tampa Bay to score 24. Tampa Bay -10
Mon, Oct 20


My Line BoDog My Pick
Bills -2 Bills 0
O/U 50 O/U 44.5
Saints -4 Saints +3 Saints
O/U 49 O/U 45
Bears -4 Bears -3 Bears
O/U 38 O/U 38
Steelers -7 Steelers -10 Bengals
O/U 35 O/U 35

Chiefs +9 Chiefs
Dolphins -3 Dolphins -3
O/U 46 O/U 37 Over
Giants -8 Giants -10.5 49ers
O/U 47 O/U 47
Cowboys -10

Texans -9 Texans -9.5
Colts -4 Colts -2.5 Colts
O/U 55 O/U 47
Jets -7 Jet -3 Jets
O/U 38 O/U 41
Redskins -3 Redskins -7.5 Browns
Bucs -10
Bucs -11
O/U 38 O/U 38

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