Sunday, October 26, 2008

Week 8 Sunday Results and MNF Preview

Finally, a good week picking games with a 17.95% weekly return. Unfortunately, it took 8 weeks. The difference was focusing on the specific rankings of running and pass defense. In the past I had a good idea of where a team ranked in yards per attempt but this week I had the actual rankings.

The Titans are 6-0 ATS and probably a great bet against them. So with a good Sunday result and feeling like a man I am going to preview the Monday Night Football game.

The Titans have the #1 ranked passing defense allowing only 5.2 yards an attempt. The Colts have only been an average passing team this season. I expect the Colts to score a little more than the 12 points the Titans have been giving up. I think the Colts will score 14 points this game. The Titans offense is powered behind a top 5 running game, 4.5 yards a game. This has been a weakness of the Colts defense, allowing 4.4 yards a game. They have improved over the last 3 weeks, but they are still allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Titans to score 21 points in this game. Titans -7

The Titans are only 3 point favorites but there is no way I am betting on them since they are 6-0 ATS, so I will pass and be happy with a good week.

(200) Baltimore Ravens -8 (-105) Sun@11:00a Win
(211) St. Louis Rams +8 Sun@11:00a Win
(213) Arizona Cardinals vs. (214) Carolina Panthers Over 43½ Sun@11:00a Win
(217) Cleveland Browns +7 (-105) Sun@2:05p Win
(221) Seattle Seahawks vs. (222) San Francisco 49ers Over 41½ Sun@2:15p Win
(215) Washington Redskins vs. (216) Detroit Lions Under 42 Sun@11:00a Push
(205) Buffalo Bills vs. (206) Miami Dolphins Over 42 Sun@11:00a Loss
(209) Atlanta Falcons +9 Sun@11:00a Loss
(227) Cincinnati Bengals +9 Sun@2:05p Loss

Record: 5-3-1
Weekly Return: 17.95%
Cumulative Return: -92.27%


Doug said...

Bob - don't you think you're making your odds a little tougher by combining bets on money lines, over/unders, and the winners versus the spread? If you focus only on the point spread, you are giving yourself a 50/50 chance to win every bet. By considering the o/u and even the money line, you are reducing your chances of picking a winning bet. So why not just look at the 16 games in a week and pick the winner of each one against the spread, betting the same amount on each game? If you do that (considering juice at 10%), all you have to do is go 9-7 to make a 7% return. Throw in a push (9-6-1) and you've made 14%. Go 10-6 and you've made 19%. That's what I thought your plan was all along. I tried it myself this week and went 7-5-1 on Sunday's games for a 10% return, and I didn't do any research. If you want to bet on the o/u, I would use the same approach: bet on the o/u in all 16 games. I'm going to continue to test this approach, although I'm not putting any actual money down.

Brian said...

Agree with Doug that combining different bets is just doing the same thing as last year - trying to cherry pick the best bets.

But I'm glad to see that more research is providing for a better return. I think that's the key - really look into the numbers and get an idea of how the match-ups work. Especially early in the season, that means really studying each team's past results, as all performances for or against are not created equal.

CubsDynasty said...

I don't understand the argument that by looking at over/under I am hurting my "50/50 chance". The problem was that in games were I correctly picked the spread +/- 1 I had an absolutely horrible record. It was a lot lower than 50%. So I started adding in the over/under because the week were I melted down I only bet on 7 games.