Thursday, October 30, 2008

Week 9 Preview

I completely missed the Tampa Bay versus Kansas City game. Rather than rushing the summary and making a panic pick I have gone one better, I have posted a poll to the right. Please pick who you would pick and feel free to list the reasons in the comments. Below are my predicted lines, compared to the BoDog lines and finally my picks. As always, I will post my actual bets over the weekend when I make them.

The Packers have an above average passing game with 7.1 yards an attempt. The Titans have a very good defense, the best passing defense in the league (5.2). I expect the Packers to score a little more than the 14 a game the Titans are giving up but not much more, I would give the Packers 16. The Titans have another average offense but their strength is running the ball, 4.3 yards an attempt. The Packers actually have a good defense but a horrible run defense, 4.9 yards an attempt. I expect the Titans to score the 23 a game the Packers are giving up. Of course, I am betting against the Titans because of their ATS record and since no one told me it was a bad idea. Titans -7

The Cardinals have a top 5 passing offense but a pretty bad running game. The Rams have a horrible defense but have improved over the last 3 games only giving up 19 points a game. The Rams have been better at pass defense than run defense. I expect the Cardinals to score the 25 a game they score on the road. The Rams have been scoring 23 points a game over the last 3. Thats equal to what the Cardinals are giving up over the last 3, aided by a horrible pass defense. I expect the Rams to score 23. Cardinals -2

The Texans are a hot team, scoring 31 points a game. The Vikings defense has been giving up a lot of points but their special teams have. The Vikings actually have a very good defense. I expect the Vikings to have their special teams problems solved and the Texans to only score 21 points. The Texans defense has improved over the last 3 games, only allowing 18 points a game. The Vikings offense, carried by a good running game is averaging 22 points a game. I expect the Vikings to score that number. Vikings -1

The Ravnes have an average offense, based on a top 5 rushing game (143 game). The Browns have had trouble against the run and the pass on defense. I expect the Ravens to score the points they have been averaging and the same the Browns are allowing, 19 points. The Ravens have the #2 defense in the league and the top running defense. The Browns are just bad on offense and just a little bit better at running, the Ravens strength. I expect the Browns to score less then the Ravens are giving up (15.7) and only score 14 points. Ravens -5

The Jaguars have an average offense, with the passing game a little bit better than the running game. The Bengals have a bad defense and a horrible pass defense. The Jaguars are averaging 20 points a game all year and over the last 3. I expect them to score 24 points against the Bengals defense. The Bengals have the second to worse offense in the league and can't pass or run the ball well. The Jaguars defense has also been pretty bad because of a number of injuries. The Bengals are averaging 10 on offense and the Jaguars 22 on defense. I will split the difference and give the Bengals 16 points. Jaguars -8

The Lions are the 5th worse offense, passing and running, across the board. The Bears have a top 10 defense. The Lions are averaging 16 points a game and I think they would be lucky to score this against the Bears. The Bears have been giving up 23 points a game over the last 3 due to all the injuries. I will give Lions 17 points this game. The Bears have an average offense but have been improving especially passing. They have been averaging 34 points a game on offense and 8.1 yards a passing attempt over the last 3. The Lions have only been allowing 21 points a game but 8.9 on a passing attempt. Thats not a good sign for them, but the Bears have been scoring on special teams and on defense. I expect them to only score 28 points. Bears -11

The Jets have a below average offense and the problem is passing the ball. They have actually been running the ball well, 4.6 yards an attempt. The Bills have an average defense but they have trouble stopping the run. The Jets are averaing 22 points a game on offense over the last 3 and the Bills are allowing 26 points a game over the last 3. I see the Jets running the ball well and scoring the 26 the Bills are allowing. The Bills have an average offense, on both the running passing part. The Jets also have an average defense, on both running and the passing part. I expect the Bills to score the 24 points a game they are averaging over the season. Jets -2

The Dolphins have the second best offense in the league behind the second best passing offense, 8.0 yards an attempt. Even scarier they have improved to 9.6 yards an attempt over the last 3 games. Its surprising they are only scoring 22 points a game. The Broncos have a horrible defense and a horrible pass defense and a bad rush defense. I expect the Dolphins to score the 28 a game the Broncos are giving up. The Broncos have a good offense and a very good running game, 4.6 an attempt. The Dolphins have a good defense and a very good rushing defense, 3.7 yards an attempt. I expect the Broncos to score the 24 points a game the Dolphins have been giving up. Dolphins -4

The Eagles have a top offense behind a top running and passing game. They are averaging 28 points a game over the season and the last 3 games. The Seahawks have a bad defense but a decent running defense. The Seahawks have been giving up 27 points a game on defense. I think its very reasonable to expect the Eagles to score 28 points on offense. The Seahawks offense is pretty bad and shocking that they can score 20 points a game. The Eagles have a good defense but are allowing 20 points a game. I think the Eagles problems are based on turnovers not going their way. I think the Seahawks will score 17 points this game, but I will give them their 3 points for home field. Eagles -7

The Falcons have a top offense because of their running game, 4.8 yards an attempt. The Raiders have a bad defense and a horrible run defense, 4.5 yards an attempt. With this poor run defense I expect the Falcons to score the 25 points a game the Raiders are giving up. The Raiders have an ugly offense with nothing going well. Its amazing they are averaging 16 points a game. The Falcons defense has not been very good also, they are allowing 22 points a game. I expect the Raiders to get close to this number, giving them 20 points a game. Falcons -5

I am passing on this game because of the Brad Johnson issue, the Cowboys looked very bad with him and it could get really ugly against the Giants. I expect the Giants to be a double digit favorite. Giants -10

The Patriots have a poor offense but the #10 rushing game, behind 4.2 yards a game. The Colts have an average defense but a poor rushing defense, 4.2 yards a game. I expect the Patriots to score the 24 points a game they have been averaging over their last 3. The Colts have a decent offense but not the strength people thought they would be. The Patriots defense has been poor behind a horrible pass defense. This will probably be a problem for the Patriots. I expect the Colts to score their 22 points a game. With this being a big game for the Colts in their stadium I will give them 3 for home field. Colts -1

My Line BoDog Line My Bet
Titans -7 Titans -4.5 Packers
O/U 39 41
Cardinals -2 Cardinals -3
O/U 48 48.5
Vikings -1 Vikings -4.5 Texans
O/U 43 47
Ravens -5 Browns -1.5 Ravens
O/U 33 36.5
Jaguars -8 Jaguars -8
O/U 46 40 Over
Bears -11 Bears -13
O/U 45 43
Jets -2 Bills -5
O/U 50 41 Over
Dolphins -4 Dolphins -3.5 Dolphins
O/U 52 50
Eagles -7 Eagles -7
O/U 48 42.5 Over
Falcons -5 Falcons -3 Falcons
O/U 45 41
Giants -10 Giants -9
Colts -1 Colts -6 Patriots
O/U 45 44

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