Week 1 Preview

Now you know the NFL season is about to begin, its my first gambling preview of the season. Talk about huge momentum, I finished the playoffs with a 9-2 record. Along with an over .500 record for the regular season of 85-76-5. More importantly, since reverse engineering I was 28-19-1 during the regular season. Add the playoffs to that result and I was 37-21-1 since reverse engineering. So lets see if we can continue this all season:

Date	Teams	Spread	Total	Projected	2008 Off	2008 Def	Projected
Both of these teams had some losses in the off season. Still I don't see the Titans scoring only 14.5 points in this game. They still have a great running game. I think this game will be decided by a few points so I will take the Titans and 6.
10-Sep	Tennessee (0-0)	6	35	14.5	22.6	14.5	23
Thu	Pittsburgh (0-0)	-6	35	20.5	22.5	14.5	23
I'll believe the Texans have a good defense when they actually stop someone. I expect the Jets to score the 24 points a game the Titans gave up last year. I don't believe the Texans hype and I expect the Jets to win and at least cover.
13-Sep	NY Jets (0-0)	4.5	43.5	19.5	25.3	22.2	24
Sun	Houston (0-0)	-4.5	43.5	24	22.9	24.6	22
I expect both of these teams to score their offensive averages of last year. The problem is that is exactly what vegas is predicting. So I am passing on this game.
13-Sep	Miami (0-0)	4	43.5	19.75	20.8	20.2	20
Sun	Atlanta (0-0)	-4	43.5	23.75	24.4	20.9	24
This is always a close game and I expect the Jaguars to be better this year then last year. So at the minimum I expect them to score the 19 points a game they scored and the Colts gave up. I only expect the Colts to score the 23 they scored and the Jaguars scored. That makes me want to take the Jaguars and the 7.
13-Sep	Jacksonville (0-0)	7	44	18.5	18.9	22.9	19
Sun	Indianapolis (0-0)	-7	44	25.5	23.2	18.9	23
Sure the Chiefs have problems, but really 13 points to the Ravens. I just don't see it. I expect the Chiefs to score at least 14 points and a lot more then the 11.5 they are predicted. Plus, if the Ravens do take a 10 point lead I expect them to sit on the ball.
13-Sep	Kansas City (0-0)	13	36	11.5	18.2	27.5	14
Sun	Baltimore (0-0)	-13	36	24.5	23.1	15.1	24
I don't expect the Panthers to score as many points. Sure the Eagles have some injuries but I still remember the Panthers playoff game. I expect them to prove me wrong. In fact, I might even take the Eagles on the money line.
13-Sep	Philadelphia (0-0)	-1	43.5	22.25	25.8	18.2	24
Sun	Carolina (0-0)	1	43.5	21.25	25.1	21.3	17
I have no problem with the Saints scoring 32 points, the amount the Lions gave up last year. I just remember how bad the Saints defense was. The Lions have to be a little bit better with new coaches right? When was the last time a non-playoff team opened the season as a double digit favorite.
13-Sep	Detroit (0-0)	13	48.5	17.75	16.8	32.3	21
Sun	New Orleans (0-0)	-13	48.5	30.75	28.9	24.6	32
The Vikings scored 23 points a game last year, they Brown gave up 22 and the Vikings added Favre. Sure he might not be very good anymore but he is an upgrade over Jackson. The Browns only score 14.5 points a game last year and didn't add anyone.
13-Sep	Minnesota (0-0)	-4	40	22	23.1	21.1	25
Sun	Cleveland (0-0)	4	40	18	14.5	21.9	15
These teams are both huge question marks. I am going to pass on this game.
13-Sep	Denver (0-0)	4	43	19.5	23.1	28	17
Sun	Cincinnati (0-0)	-4	43	23.5	12.8	22.8	20
Tampa Bay scored 22 points a game last year and the Cowboys gave up 22 points a game last year. That tells me that Tampa Bay will score 22 points. That is a lot higher then Vegas has them with only 16.5 points. So I will take the 6 points.
13-Sep	Dallas (0-0)	-6	39	22.5	22.6	22.8	21
Sun	Tampa Bay (0-0)	6	39	16.5	22.6	20.2	22
This game does not excite me, a lot of question marks and even my projections were pretty close to vegas, so I will pass.
13-Sep	Washington (0-0)	6.5	37.5	15.5	16.6	18.5	17
Sun	NY Giants (0-0)	-6.5	37.5	22	25.8	18.6	21
The 49ers scored 21.2 points a game last year and the Cardinals defense was pretty bad. So I don't think it is a large leap of faith to expect them to score over 21 points. The Cardinals have their own issues, they have been horrible over the preseason. It is not that they weren't trying and that is the scary thing. I expect this to be a close game and the 49ers to easily cover.
13-Sep	San Francisco (0-0)	6.5	46	19.75	21.2	23.8	24
Sun	Arizona (0-0)	-6.5	46	26.25	27.5	25.7	22
The Seahawks have major offensive line problems, always a red flag. I also have some faith in the Rams. I don't really think the Rams will win, but I do think they will keep the game a lot closer. I just expect the Seahawks to struggle to score the 25 points Vegas has them at.
13-Sep	St Louis (0-0)	9	41.5	16.25	14.5	29.1	20
Sun	Seattle (0-0)	-9	41.5	25.25	18.4	24.5	17
The Packers gave up 23.8 points a game, the Bears scored 23.4 and they signed Cutler. So if anything, I expect the Bears to score even more points. I expect the Bears defense to be at least the same as last year, allowing 22 points a game. That tells me to take the Bears and the points.
13-Sep	Chicago (0-0)	3.5	46.5	21.5	23.4	21.9	25
Sun	Green Bay (0-0)	-3.5	46.5	25	26.2	23.8	22
I remember the Patriots with Brady as the team that lost twice to the Giants in the last 4 games of the season. They have no running game and just traded away their best defensive player. I don't expect the Patriots to score the 29 points Vegas has them at. I expect the Bills to score there 21 points a game from last year, don't forget they do have TO.
14-Sep	Buffalo (0-0)	10.5	47.5	18.5	21	21.4	21
Mon	New England (0-0)	-10.5	47.5	29	25.6	19.3	25
I actually have a little faith in the Raiders, but I need to see them play a game before I would even think about betting on them.
14-Sep	San Diego (0-0)	-9	43	26	27	22.2	27
Mon	Oakland (0-0)	9	43	17	16.4	24.2	15