Friday, September 18, 2009

Week 2 Preview

As I mentioned in my Week 1 Review, I feel there was a huge advantage of having the NFL ticket and getting to watch a lot more games over the last week. With only one game under each teams belt it does provide a small sample size. Remember, last year's best stats to follow was the home and away offense and defensive numbers for the respective teams. The hardest issue for this week was trying to determine between a team that played a low scoring game and one who played a shootout. You also have to be careful to not overreact to just one game. Below are the previews. The number to far right is the score I have predicted.

Teams
Spread Total Projected 2009 Off 2009 Def Prediction







The Giants defense continues to look great, allowing only 17 points a game last week. The Cowboys allowed 21 points a game and I expect the Giants to score close to that. I think Vegas is wrong on the Cowboys and I like the Giants on this game.
NY Giants (1-0) 3 44.5 20.75 23 17 21
Dallas (1-0) -3 44.5 23.75 34 21 18







The Bears offense looked pretty bad last week and hopefully will only improve. Both teams are missing their best player on defense. I just don't see the Bears offense being able to solve the Steelers and I don't think they will score the 17.25.
Pittsburgh (1-0) -3 37.5 20.25 13 10 21
Chicago (0-1) 3 37.5 17.25 15 21 14







This is a tough game, the Broncos were one fluke play away from only scoring 6 points. The Browns allowed 34 points. So you have one team that played a defensive struggle and one team that played the exact opposite. I don't know what will happen in this game and am passing.
Cleveland (0-1) 3 39.5 18.25 20 34 17
Denver (1-0) -3 39.5 21.25 12 7 21







The Ravens allowed 24 points to the Chiefs, they now play at San Diego. I don't care who the RB is I expect the Chargers to score at least 24. I also expect the Ravens to score as many points as the Raiders. It might be a close game but I expect a higher scoring game than Vegas so I am taking the over.
Baltimore (1-0) 3 40 18.5 38 24 21
San Diego (1-0) -3 40 21.5 24 20 24







These teams scored a combined 45 points last week but allowed 59 points. Yet Vegas has a over/under of 42.5. Tampa Bay has changed its defense and Buffalo is going to run the no-huddle which means more plays than usual. So I am taking the over.
Tampa Bay (0-1) 5 42.5 18.75 21 34 25
Buffalo (0-1) -5 42.5 23.75 24 25 27







The Seahawks tried their best to lose to the Rams. A few penalties and a Rams team that looked horrible allowed the Seahawks to eventaully win buy a big margin. The 49ers looked like a real NFL team and have been playing well since Singletary has taken over. The Seahawks won't be able to overcome all the mistakes they made against the Rams. I am taking the 49ers.
Seattle (1-0) 1 39.5 19.25 28 0 17
San Francisco (1-0) -1 39.5 20.25 20 16 20







These teams scored a combined 28 points and allowed a combined 27 points. Naturally Vegas has the over/under at 42. That is a lot of points for both these teams. I am taking the under.
Cincinnati (0-1) 9.5 42 16.25 7 12 10
Green Bay (1-0) -9.5 42 25.75 21 15 16







The Cardinals looked horrible, they are going on the road to the East coast to play an early game. That’s a trend I will continue to bet until the Cardinals actually play a decent game. I like the Jaguars a lot and think they will win big.
Arizona (0-1) 3 42.5 19.75 16 20 14
Jacksonville (0-1) -3 42.5 22.75 12 14 20







These were two of the worst teams I watched over the weekend. I think the Redskins might win, but really over 10 points for a team that didn't make the playoffs and lost last week. I am going to avoid this game.
St Louis (0-1) 10 37 13.5 0 28 9
Washington (0-1) -10 37 23.5 17 23 21







I still have zero faith in the Texans and last week I was completely right. Now I am suppsoe to believe they will score 17 points against the Titans. I am going to continue betting against the Texans until Vegas and company realize they stink.,
Houston (0-1) 6.5 40.5 17 7 24 10
Tennessee (0-1) -6.5 40.5 23.5 10 13 24







The Falcons defense allowed 7 points last week. The Panthers score 10 points and there is talk of benching Delhomme. Yet, Vegas is expecting 17 points. Plus, the Falcons are home. I might be missing something but I am taking the Falcons and not looking back.
Carolina (0-1) 6.5 42 17.75 10 38 10
Atlanta (1-0) -6.5 42 24.25 19 7 24







The Chiefs lost a heartbreaker don't let the score fool you. The Raiders also lost a heart breaker. Could these two teams finally be decent? Vegas doesn't think so, predicting a 20.5 to 17.5 point game. I see a higher scoring game, mostly on turnovers and a smaller field. These teams allowed 62 points combined last week and score 44 points.
Oakland (0-1) 3 38 17.5 20 24 27
Kansas City (0-1) -3 38 20.5 24 38 24







As good as the Jets looked last week, that’s as bad as the Patriots looked, even though they did win. I just can't get a good feel for the Jets and don't want to make a bet on them either way. I think this will be a very close game. I am passing though
New England (1-0) -3.5 45.5 24.5 25 24 24
NY Jets (1-0) 3.5 45.5 21 24 7 24







The Vikings scored 34 points last week. The Lions gave up 45 points. Vegas expects the Vikings only to score 28 points. I think they will score at least 35 points. The Lions might score 21 points but I don't expect them to cover. I am taking the Vikings.
Minnesota (1-0) -10 46.5 28.25 34 20 35
Detroit (0-1) 10 46.5 18.25 27 45 21







Sure the Eagles defense is not the Lions defense, On the other hand, McNabb playing or not has a broken rib. This is one of those games that you have to wait and see if McNabb is playing. I doubt this game will even be on the board.
New Orleans (1-0) 1 46 22.5 45 27 21
Philadelphia (1-0) -1 46 23.5 38 10 10







The Colts defense looked good last week against the Jaguars. The only allowed 12 points and that’s not a good sign for the Dolphins who only scored 7 points last week. I expect the Dolphins to be lucky to score 14 points a lot lower than the 19.5 Vegas has projected for them.
Indianapolis (1-0) -3 42 22.5 14 12 21
Miami (0-1) 3 42 19.5 7 19 14

No comments: