Friday, October 2, 2009

Week 4 Preview

I am feeling a little pressure this week, three straight weeks above .500 and another week above .500 could put me close or over a 100% cumulative return. A very interesting week with 5 games with a spread at or above 9. Sadly, some of those spreads might be too low. This could make for a week of a lot of blowouts and not as exciting TV as last week. We are also getting into bye weeks so a few less games to review and choose from. Fortunately, I found more than enough games this week. As we learned last year, the magic number is 10 games. If I bet less than that, it has to be a percentage of my total purse. For example if I only find 8 games, than its only 80% of the total purse I am spending.

Spread Total Projected 2009 Off 2009 Def Prediction

The Colts continue to win and Manning looks really good. Still, there offense is only scoring 24 points a game but the preditced number is 27.25. The Seahawks are having some problems but there defense has held up only allowing 16 points a game. I expect the Seahawks to score near the 15 the Colts are giving up but I don't expect the Colts to score more than there 24 a game.
Seattle (1-2) 10.5 44 16.75 19 16 16
Indianapolis (3-0) -10.5 44 27.25 24 15 24

Sure the Bears could be undefeated if not for a number of mental mistakes made in the Packers game. On the other hand, they could easily be winless. There defense has some injury problems and have been allowing 18 points a game and the Lions have scored 19.7 a game. Vegas is projecting only 14.5 points a game and I think the Lions will score closer to their average at 18. That would mean an offense that is averaging 19 points a game would need to score over 18 to cover. I just don't see that happening, so I am taking the Lions.
Detroit (1-2) 10 39 14.5 19.7 28.7 18
Chicago (2-1) -10 39 24.5 19 18 26

Very rarely does switching QBs work for a team, it seems like the Browns have already quit on their new coach. They are only averaging 10 points a game and the Bengals defense has been strong. I don't expect the Browns to score anywhere close to the 16 points a game Vegas has projected. I also think the Bengals will score a little bit better than their average considering the Browns are giving up almost 32 points a game. I am taking the Bengals
Cincinnati (2-1) -5.5 38 21.75 20.3 18.7 23
Cleveland (0-3) 5.5 38 16.25 9.7 31.7 10

The Patriots finally scored some points on offense and their defense continues to be strong. Both of these teams are allowing 17 points a game. I just find it hard to believe this game is going to be a 24-24 type game and get to the total number. I see the under being the correct bet.
Baltimore (3-0) 1 44.5 21.75 34.3 17.7 17
New England (2-1) -1 44.5 22.75 20 16.7 17

I remember last year when the Texans blew the Raiders game and Andre Johnson was shut down. The difference is that this game is in Houston. I still have no faith in the Texans and Schaub has already played three games without getting killed, that’s probably going to change. On the other hand, I can't take the Raiders on the road they have looked horrible and I think 1-15 is possible. So I am passing on this game.
Oakland (1-2) 9 42.5 16.75 12 19 14
Houston (1-2) -9 42.5 25.75 21.7 28.7 21

The Giants do look really good this season averaging 27 points a game and playing a team allowing 28. The Chiefs are scoring 16 points a game and the Giants are allowing 16 points a game. That makes a difference of 12 points and the spread is only nine. If there is upside in either number it has to be for the Giants. So I am taking the Giants.
NY Giants (3-0) -9 42 25.5 26.7 16 28
Kansas City (0-3) 9 42 16.5 16 28.3 16

I had the "pleasure" of watching most of the Tampa Bay game last week. They looked horrible, so switching QB's didn't shock me. Still, I don't expect them to score even the 13 points a game they are averaging. They will be lucky for double digits. The best solution for the struggling Redskins offense averaging 13 points is playing a defense allowing 30 points. I don't think the Redskins put up 30 put I wouldn't be surprised with mid 20's. That has me taking the Redskins.
Tampa Bay (0-3) 7 37 15 13.7 30.3 10
Washington (1-2) -7 37 22 13.3 16.3 24

Its amazing that these two teams were preseason talk of being in the playoffs. Now the loser of this game can already book their January vacation. Both of these teams are allowing 23 points a game and scoring 20 points a game. That looks like a tie to me, but its being played in Jacksonville. I was amazed to see that the Jaguars were getting 3 points. It might not seem a lot but I am taking them and the three.
Tennessee (0-3) -3 41.5 22.25 19.3 23.7 23
Jacksonville (1-2) 3 41.5 19.25 20 23 23

I rewatched the Dolphins game this week and I don't have much faith in Chad Henne, I think there was a reason why Pennington was starting. The Dolphins are only averaging 14 points a game and I think they will be lucky to score 17. There defense is allowing 23 points a game and the Bills are scoring over 21. Both of these numbers are higher than the 19 Vegas has predicted. So I am taking the Bills.
Buffalo (1-2) -1 37 19 21.3 24 23
Miami (0-3) 1 37 18 14.3 23 17

If we have learned anything from last year, it's that good defense always trumps a good offense. The Jets defense has been amazing only allowing 11 points a game. Vegas is predicting 15 points for the Saints. I don't buy it, I am being liberal and giving them 10 more points. Giving the Saints 21 points, you just need the Jets to score more than 14 points to cover and I see that happening. Taking the Jets.
NY Jets (3-0) 7 45 19 21.3 11 20
New Orleans (3-0) -7 45 26 40 18.7 21

This is one of those games were I am exactly predicting the what Vegas in projecting. The biggest stretch might be the Rams scoring 14 points when they are only averaging 8 points a game. Yet, the 49ers are allowing almost 18 points a game. I am going to pass on this game, I think this score is very close.
St Louis (0-3) 9.5 37.5 14 8 24.3 14
San Francisco (2-1) -9.5 37.5 23.5 22.3 17.7 24

Sure the Broncos have a great defense, but they have played the Bengals, Browns and Raiders. I call that a tainted pool and too small of a sample size. I am willing to bet the Cowboys score their average of 28 points a game and cover the spread.
Dallas (2-1) -3 42.5 22.75 28.7 20.3 28
Denver (3-0) 3 42.5 19.75 20.7 5.3 20

The Steelers offense has looked very poor all season. They have only score 16 points a game so it seems crazy to me to expect them to score almost 25 points, with a defense that has only allowed 21 a game. With an expectation of 17 points for the Steelers I just need the Chargers to score double digits to cover, and I see that happening very easily with an offnense scoring 24 points a game.
San Diego (2-1) 6.5 43 18.25 24.3 21.3 18
Pittsburgh (1-2) -6.5 43 24.75 15.7 16.7 17

I have been doing so well on Monday night games, 3-0, that it is very tough to pass on this game. I just think these are two very close and equal teams and there will be a lot of emotion involved in this game and hopefully a Favre career ending injury. I see the Vikins winning by 3 which is very close to the 3.5 vegas has so I am passing.
Green Bay (2-1) 3.5 45 20.75 27 21 20
Minnesota (3-0) -3.5 45 24.25 29.3 19 23

No comments: