Thursday, October 8, 2009

Week 4 Review

I have never been in a train wreck and when I was in a car crash I was very young, so I don't really remember the pain. Unfortunately, after last week's games I can relate to the pain and the slow motion feeling you have as watch and can't change the outcome. To quote Victor Niederhoffer "My checkers teacher said even a bad system is better than no system at all." That is what I tell myself to feel better. As always I will go over the games I lost, all 8 of them and hopefully figure out a flaw or two in the plan.

(215) Seattle Seahawks +10½ (-115) Sun@11:00a
I had the Seahawks predicted score only one point away. The problem is that I missed on the Colts. The problem is that I let the Jaguars game influence my offensive decision. The Colts had scored 27 and 31 the two weeks beforehand. If I had remembered that the Jaguars always play the Colts closer I would have predicted around 28 points and probably picked the Colts. Hopefully this will be corrrected by reviewing teams schedules before picking.

(211) Detroit Lions +10 (-115) Sun@11:00a
The Lions looked like the better team in the first half and it looked like the Bears would struggle for a win. Than Knox returns the second half kick for a touchdown. Than Stafford really starts falling apart, watching the game it was amazing how many open players he missed. If Stafford hits on just a few of these plays the Lions easily cover. Nothing to learn from this game, the breaks just went the Lions way.

(205) Baltimore Ravens vs. (206) New England Patriots Under 45 Sun@11:00a
This loss was very close, the teams only combined for 48 points. Another bad break, Brady fumbles in the end zone and Edwards recovers for a TD. If that play doesn't happen it doesn't give the Ravens such an easy score. This is another loss I can handle, just need a little better red zone defense from either of the teams.

Versteeg is having a great game tonight against the Red Wings

(214) Washington Redskins -7½ Sun@11:00a
Another QB fumble only this time at the beginning of the game. The recovery game Tampa Bay the ball in the red zone and they were able to score a TD. Still, the big mistake was thinking the Redskins would score closer to the Tampa Bay defensive average of 30 than their average of 13. The Redskins are just horrible and I have to keep that in mind going forward. Certain teams have such a poor offense they just aren't going to score a lot of points: Rams, Raiders, Chiefs and Redskins. So this was just a poor bet.

Nebraska needs to give Helu the ball, just run him until he is tired, instead of never giving him the ball. I don't understand, you think they would learn from the Virginia Tech game.

(219) Buffalo Bills -1½ Sun@2:05p
This was an interesting game, the Dolphins had looked horrible all season. I saw Henne play the week before and he looked very bad and the Bills had shown some life. Instead the Dolphins just rammed it down the throat of the Bills. I don't know if this was a bad bet or just the Bills not showing up. It will be interesting to see how both teams play the next few weeks.

(217) New York Jets +7½ (-115) Sun@2:05p
I still think this was a great bet that just saw not one but two bounces not go my way. The Jets were about to score a TD or at least a FG when Sanchez throw an interception for a touchdown. Than Sanchez decided to fumble in the endzone for a TD. If one of these plays don't happen they cover. Finally, Sanchez throws an interception as they are driving at the end of the game for a backdoor cover.

(223) Dallas Cowboys -3 (-115) Sun@2:15p
This was probably the dumbest bet I made of the day. The Broncos have played great defense all season and I dismissed it because of the opponents. Still, the Cowboys had momentum in the game and fell apart. Remember they were up 10-0 at the start of the first quarter. Still, the Broncos are for real, they might not be a top 5 team but they are not a bottom 10 team.

(225) San Diego Chargers +7 (-135) Sun@6:20p
This game was the perfect metaphor for the week. The Chargers went down 28-0 against an offense that had struggled all season. The high flying Chargers looked horrible most of the game. Than they turned it on and made it close before once against making a few mistakes and not covering. The Chargers have a number of injuries on both sides of the ball that really impacted them. This is something to keep in mind going forward.

Weekly Record: 2-8 (20%)
Overall Record: 24-22 (52.2%)
Spread: 22-18 (55%)
Over/Under: 2-4 (33%)
Weekly Return: -60.88%
Cumulative Return: -36.64%

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