Friday, December 5, 2008

Week 14 Preview

Last nights game was a tough loss after 31 points were scored at the half. Needing two touchdowns seemed like a slam dunk but thanks to an injury and the Raiders going back to being the Raiders it was another loss on a Thursday game. This week, for the second one in a row, has a lot of road teams as the pick. Was the Sportsguy right, does homefield not matter anymore? Is this an easy way to win money until Vegas changes? A lot of the lines seemed weird, with a number of games screaming over. I am very interested to see how this week plays out and to see if I can stay above .500.

Bengals at Colts - Dec 07, 1:00 pm

The Bengals offense is one of the worse in the league. You don't need me to tell you this, you just need to see the 12.6 points a game they are scoring. The Colts have been giving up almost 21 points a game but they have an above average defense. Their weakness is their rushing defense, fortunately the Bengals are dead last in that category. I could see the Bengals scoring 14 points. The Bengals defense is a little below average and probably the worse part of it has been poor field position because of such a crappy offense. This is a Colts team that is struggling to score only averaging 21 points a game. With a home game on the turf I see them scoring 24 points.

Teams Open Over/Under Projected Off Avg Def Avg Predicted My Pick
Bengals 14 42.0 14 12.6 25.8 14 Bengals
Colts -14 42.0 28 21.4 20.8 24

Jaguars at Bears - Dec 07, 1:00 pm

I know the Jaguars have been struggling on offense, with only 20 points a game. On the other hand, the Bears have been struggling on defense. I find it hard to believe the Jaguars are only going to score 17 points, 3 under their average and 5 under the Bears average. I think 20 points makes a lot more sense. This seems pretty obvious to me, the Bears are scoring 23 a game, the Jaguars are giving up 23 a game and the smart guys are predicting 23 a game.

Teams Open Over

Jaguars 6.5 40.0 16.75 20.1 22.5 20 Jaguars
Bears -6.5 40.0 23.25 23.4 22.3 23

Texans at Packers - Dec 07, 1:00 pm

The Texans are the definition of an average offense and have been scoring 24 points a game. The Packers have been giving up 25 points a game. The Packers have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league and that should allow the Texans to move the ball. I see the Texans scoring the 25 points a game the Packers are allowing. The Packers have a top 10 offense and face the horrible Texans rush defense. The Packers are averaging 28 points a game and I see them scoring 30 points. I am tempted to bet the over but since this is in Green Bay their is a chance this could be a lower scoring game, I think that would help the Texans even more because of their running game advantage.

Teams Open Over

Texans 6.5 47.0 20.25 23.5 25.8 25 Texans
Packers -6.5 47.0 26.75 27.8 24.6 30

Browns at Titans - Dec 07, 1:00 pm

The Titans are 10-1-1 ATS and at some point they are going to lose a few games against the spread. Only, its not going to be this week with Ken Dorsey starting for the Browns. The Browns would be lucky to score 12 points this game. The Browns without a QB remind me to much of Detriot a team with nothing to play for.

Teams Open Over

Browns 14 37.5 11.75 17.8 20.6 10
Titans -14 37.5 25.75 25.3 14.6 28 Titans

Vikings at Lions - Dec 07, 1:00 pm

Teams Open Over


0 23.9 21.7


0 16.9 32.8

Redskins at Ravens - Dec 07, 8:15 pm

The Ravens may have the top defense in the NFL, but the last time they played a good offense from the NFC East it did not go well. The Redskins have a good offense and a great running game. I think they will do better than the average team and score 17 points. Another odd number, the smart guys also see the Ravens struggling to score points. They have been improving lately and have been taking big chances downfield which result in the occassional big play, I know crazy thought. I expect the Ravens to score 21. I am taking the Over because I think this game has a good chance for a few big defensive plays to add to the score.

Teams Open Over

Redskins 5 35.5 15.25 17.3 18.5 17 Over
Ravens -5 35.5 20.25 24.3 15.8 21

Eagles at Giants - Dec 07, 1:00 pm

As bad as the Eagles have been they are still over .500. They still have an above average offense and they ace scoring 27 points a game. I know the Giants are only giving up 17 points a game but their defense is good, not great. I expect the Eagles to put up 20 points. The Giants have the top offense behind the top running game. The Eagles also have a very good run defense. It's pretty interesting if you take the points these teams are giving up on defense its 38, their combined offense 56. This is another game where I see the offense scoring more and an over.

Teams Open Over

Eagles 9 43.0 17 26.6 20.8 20 Over
Giants -9 43.0 26 29.3 17.2 28

Falcons at Saints - Dec 07, 1:00 pm

The Falcons offense is for real and they should have no problem scoring the 25 points a game the Saints are giving up. In fact, they will probably score more points because of the weak pass defense of the Saints. I think 27 is more likely. The Falcons defense is very poor against the run but this is not the strength of the Saints. I think the Saints will struggle against the Falcons who only give up 20 points a game. I expect them to only score 24 points.

Teams Open Over

Falcons 3.5 51.5 24 24.8 20.2 27 Falcons
Saints -3.5 51.5 27.5 28.1 25.1 24

Jets at 49ers - Dec 07, 4:05 pm

The Jets are scoring 28 points a game, the 49ers and giving up 26 points a game and vegas has the Jets scoring 24 points. Despite what the media will try to shove down your throats the Jets are a below average offense with a very good run game. The 49ers are also below average on defense and I think the Jets should have an easy time scoring 26 points. Again the 49ers are scoring 22 points a game, the Jets are allowing 22 points a game and smart money has the 49ers scoring 21 points. The 49ers offense has been bad but they are still scoring points. I think they get their average of 21. I think the easier bet is the over, the teams average 50 points on offense combined and give up 48 points on defense. These numbers are both higher than 44.5.

Teams Open Over

Jets -3.5 44.5 24 28.3 22.3 26 Over
49ers 3.5 44.5 20.5 21.8 26.1 21

Dolphins at Bills - Dec 07, 4:05 pm

This is a "home" game for the Bills in Canada. The Dolphins have a top ten offense that is good at everything. The Bills defense is bad and only getting worse. Of course when a team is 1-5 in their last 6 its pretty obvious they are having problems. I see the Dolphins putting up 24 points. The Bills offense continues to struggle and they aren't very good at anything. The should have some success against a weak Dolphins pass defense. Still, the Dolphins have an average defense and I expect the Bills to be lucky to score 21.

Teams Open Over

Dolphins 1 42.0 20.5 21.1 21.4 24 Dolphins
Bills -1 42.0 21.5 23 21.6 21

Chiefs at Broncos - Dec 07, 4:05 pm

I don't think I have bet on many Chief games all year. I believe the reason is Herm Edwards, who is usually a poor coach but occasionally has a good game against a much better opponent. It is hard for me to get a read on this team and another team I have had problems with are the Broncos. These are just two inconsistant teams meeting each other. This is considered a rivaly game and in the back of my mind I remember that these games are always close. Except for the 14 points victory the Chiefs pulled out earlier this year against the Broncos. The Chiefs offense is bad and the Broncos defense is bad. If last night taught me anything its that these are professional players and they can take advantage of a poor defense. I see the Chiefs scoring 21 points, more than their season average. The Broncos have one of the top offenses in the league versus one of the worse defenses in the league in the Chiefs. I think they could score 31 points against the Chiefs, so I will be avoiding this game.

Teams Open Over

Chiefs 9.5 49.0 19.75 18 28.3 21
Broncos -9.5 49.0 29.25 24.3 26.6 31

Rams at Cardinals - Dec 07, 4:15 pm

The Rams are a very bad team and they have only scored over 17 points a game twice this season, in October. That’s right it has been almost two months, I call that a serious trend. They will be lucky to score their average of 14 points. The Cardinals should have no problem exceeding the 30 points a game the Rams are giving up. They scored 34 in their first meeting and this one is at home.

Teams Open Over

Rams 13.5 48.0 17.25 13.3 30 14
Cardinals -13.5 48.0 30.75 28.2 26.1 34 Cardinals

Cowboys at Steelers - Dec 07, 4:15 pm

The Cowboys have an above average offense powered by a top 5 running game. Unfortunately, they are playing one of the top defenses in the league in the Steelers. I agree with Vegas and the 18 points a game they have for the Cowboys, inbetween the two averages. The Cowboys are giving up 22 points a game, the Steelers are scoring 22 points a game, so I feel safe putting them down for 22 points a game. In the past being so close to the actual spread would cause me to pass on the game. However, I think the Steelers are a much better team than the Cowboys and think they have a great chance of breaking this game open.

Teams Open Over

Cowboys 3 38.5 17.75 24.9 21.7 18
Steelers -3 38.5 20.75 22.4 14.2 22 Steelers

Patriots at Seahawks - Dec 07, 4:05 pm

If there is one thing Matt Cassell has proved to be good at, its throwing the ball well against bad defenses. Thankfully, the Seahawks are one of the worst pass defense teams in the league. I would be surprised if the Patriots only score the 26 points a game they are giving up. The Seahawks are absolutely falling apart and after the Thursday game I think it is fair to say they have thrown in the towel. I expect them to be lucky to score the 18 a game they are currently averaging.

Teams Open Over

Patriots -4.5 43.0 23.75 23.1 21.3 26 Patriots
Seahawks 4.5 43.0 19.25 18 25.9 18

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