Sunday, December 14, 2008

Week 15 Results

I had an absolutely great week, going 8-2-1. I have done a lot better since working backwards from the over/under and the spread. This allows me to see what Vegas is predicting and to compare it to the past scoring averages. I really think using the home/away and last 3 game splits really helped this week. It was very interesting to see the splits for each team. I am going to look over the games and my results to see where I went wrong and right.

SD -6
The Chargers had averaged 22 points a game away and 23 points the last three games. I thought the Chiefs defense which was allowing over 30 points a game away and the last 3 would allow the Chargers to score even more points. Unfortunately, the Chargers stayed at their number of 22. The Chiefs scored closer to their average the last 3 games and the Chargers overall average. This would have been a prime example of focusing on the 3 game average and the home/away split.

When you bet the over you can't have teams settle for field goals. This game had 5 field goals which is a guaranteed problem for the over. The Packers had been very consistent on offense scoring 27 points a game over the season, over the last three, on the road and away. Even vegas thought they would score 23 points. If the Packers score their 27 they make the over.

Buf +9
Vegas predicted the Bills to only score 16 points way below all of their averages on offense. The Jets defense was not good enough for me to believe they would score so much lower than their averages. Also, earlier in the season the Bills had beaten the Jets.

This ended up being a low scoring game but if you look through the Dolphins games almost all have them have been close, they played the Raiders very close. Vegas had the 49ers scoring 18, lower than most of their averages and the Dolphins defensive averages. I have been following the 49ers and they have really been struggling in the red zone and it cost them a win in this game.

Vegas had the Redskins scoring a lot higher than their four averages and I know the Bengals are below average on defense but the Redskins can't score. I am starting to think a bad offense is a bad offense and this game proves it. The Bengals were predicted for 15 points but in the NFL a touchdown on a fluke pay has a lot of chances to happen in 200 plays of a game.

The Titans were being predicted to score 24 points but the Texans had only given up 15 the last 3 games. The same can be said for the Texans offense, they were facing a defense only allowing 18 points a game and that was their highest of the four averages. So it seemed like a stretch that vegas had them at 21 points.

Min/Arz Over
This was absolutely ridiculous, the Vikings only scoring 22 points a game. This was lower than all of their offensive averages and the Cardinals were giving up a ton of points. The Cardinals have been beating the very bad teams and losing to the very good teams. I found it hard to believe they would hold the Viking to so little points.

Pit +3
This is a tough game to call and one I usually pass on. Two great defenses and what offense will get the big break. Vegas had the Steelers at 16 but that was way below all their averages. If anything this game was a lucky break with the Steelers pulling out in the end. It should be noted the top defenses were dominant over the offenses.

NE -7
I thought the Patriots would score close to the 23 Vegas predicted. I did not think the Raiders would come close to the 16. It looks like Cassell is at a point where he can take advantage of poor defenses as he had another strong game.

(301) New Orleans vs. (302) Chicago Over 46½ Thu@7:15p Win
(308) Cincinnati Bengals +7 Sun@12:00p Win
(311) San Francisco 49ers +7 (-130) Sun@12:00p Win
(315) Buffalo Bills +8 Sun@12:00p Win
(317) Tennessee vs. (318) Houston Under 45 Sun@12:00p Win
(319) Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-120) Sun@3:15p Win
(325) Minnesota vs. (326) Arizona Over 46½ Sun@3:05p Win
(327) New England Patriots -7 Sun@3:15p Win
(313) Seattle Seahawks -3 (+105) Sun@12:00p Push
(303) Green Bay vs. (304) Jacksonville Over 46½ Sun@12:00p Loss
(323) San Diego Chargers -6 Sun@12:00p Loss

Record: 8-2-1
Overall Record: 73-67-5
Weekly Return: 54.3%
Cumulative Return: -65.9%

1 comment:

Brian said...

So you're over .500 and have lost 50% of your money? Sounds like my system (betting the same amount of money each week rather than "letting it ride" all year) might be a heck of a lot more profitable for you next year.

Just something to think about as bookies are spending your money on cheap strippers. Those could be your lap dances!