I had some time this week to run multiple regression on Week 15 and some interesting information came up. Of course this was just on one week of information so they are obvious sample size issues. The only category that was statistically significant was offense over three weeks. It was significant at a 90% level. Surprisingly, defense was almost no factor in the equation. So I made sure you keep an eye on the last three weeks scoring. The problem of course, is that a very good or bad game can skew these numbers.
| Teams | Spread | O/U | Projected | Off Avg | Off 3 | Def Avg | Predicted | |
| The Ravens have been scoring 23 points a game and 22 over the last three. The Cowboys defense is good but not great. I have faith that the Revens will score over 20 points which should not only be enough to cover but put them in position to win the game | ||||||||
| Baltimore (#4, 9-5) | 4 | 39.5 | 17.75 | 23.2 | 22.3 | 15.2 | 20 | Baltimore |
| Dallas (#11, 9-5) | -4 | 39.5 | 21.75 | 23.7 | 22.3 | 20.6 | 17 | |
| Tampa Bay has a very good defense but they have struggled recently. Vegas has the Chargers scoring 5 points less then their offensive averages. I think they score closer to their averages, Rivers has been playing great. Tampa Bay has been struggling on offense and I see this game probably come down to a game winning field goal from either team. The bonus is that if one team is going to explode and score points its the Chargers. | ||||||||
| San Diego (#22, 6-8) | 3.5 | 42.5 | 19.5 | 24.7 | 24 | 21.6 | 21 | San Diego |
| Tampa Bay (#9, 9-5) | -3.5 | 42.5 | 23 | 22.4 | 18.7 | 17.9 | 20 | |
| The Steelers have a top defense but to think they will hold the Titans to 17 points, 12 points below their three game average, is a little far fetched for me. This game is at home for the Titans, they are coming off a loss and its for home field in the playoffs. | ||||||||
| Pittsburgh (#2, 11-3) | -1 | 34.5 | 17.75 | 21.6 | 22 | 13.7 | 21 | |
| Tennessee (#1, 12-2) | 1 | 34.5 | 16.75 | 24.6 | 29 | 14.1 | 24 | Tennessee |
| The Cardinals have a number of players possibly sitting so I am going to pass on the game. | ||||||||
| Arizona (#16, 8-6) | 9 | 45 | 18 | 27.6 | 22.7 | 25.6 | 20 | |
| New England (#15, 9-5) | -9 | 45 | 27 | 25 | 27.7 | 21.6 | 27 | |
| These teams have been averaging 28 points a game combined over the last 3 and 34 points a game during the season. | ||||||||
| San Francisco (#26, 5-9) | -5.5 | 43.5 | 24.5 | 21.1 | 14.3 | 24.4 | 17 | Under |
| St Louis (#31, 2-12) | 5.5 | 43.5 | 19 | 13.5 | 14 | 29.8 | 17 | |
| If the Lions are going to win a game it could be against a horrible defense and Megatron having a monster game, this game just scares me, pass. | ||||||||
| New Orleans (#14, 7-7) | -7 | 50.5 | 28.75 | 27.9 | 24.3 | 25.2 | 27 | |
| Detroit (#32, 0-14) | 7 | 50.5 | 21.75 | 17.1 | 15.7 | 31.7 | 17 | |
| The Dolphins are a good football team that limits their mistakes. They just don't score a lot of points. The Chiefs will be able to hold them close to their three game average of 15 points a game. If the Chiefs can score 13 points they will cover, thats a good possibility. | ||||||||
| Miami (#18, 9-5) | -3.5 | 39.5 | 21.5 | 20.2 | 15.3 | 19.2 | 16 | |
| Kansas City (#30, 2-12) | 3.5 | 39.5 | 18 | 18.1 | 19.3 | 27.6 | 17 | Kansas City |
| Ken Dorsy, bet against him. | ||||||||
| Cincinnati (#25, 2-11-1) | 3 | 32.5 | 14.75 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 25.6 | 13 | Cincinnati |
| Cleveland (#23, 4-10) | -3 | 32.5 | 17.75 | 16.6 | 8.3 | 21.8 | 10 | |
| NY Jets (#17, 9-5) | -4 | 43 | 23.5 | 27.5 | 20.7 | 22.8 | 21 | |
| Seattle (#28, 3-11) | 4 | 43 | 19.5 | 18.6 | 17.7 | 25.4 | 17 | |
| The Bills are going back to Edwards at QB and if he is healthy he will have the Bills looking like the team they were at the beginning of the year. The Broncos have a poor defense and the Bills numbers are skewed because Losman is horrible. | ||||||||
| Buffalo (#27, 6-8) | 7 | 45 | 19 | 21.9 | 11 | 21.9 | 17 | Buffalo |
| Denver (#21, 8-6) | -7 | 45 | 26 | 23.3 | 22.7 | 26.1 | 21 | |
| I find it hard to believe the Raiders will explode for 19 points, they have averaged 14 all season and 15 during the last three. The Texans have started playing very well and they might be out of the playoffs but it would mean a lot to this team to go 9-7 and remember the Colts meltdown. The Raiders quit playing in September. | ||||||||
| Houston (#13, 7-7) | -7 | 44 | 25.5 | 22.8 | 22.3 | 24.5 | 24 | Houston |
| Oakland (#29, 3-11) | 7 | 44 | 18.5 | 14.6 | 15.3 | 24.9 | 14 | |
| The Eagles have been scoring 26 points a game all year and 33 the last three games. The Redskins have a good defense but not as good as Vegas is predicting. Plus, the Redskins seem to be falling apart and the Eagles are on the usual late season run. | ||||||||
| Philadelphia (#8, 8-5-1) | -5 | 38.5 | 21.75 | 26.4 | 32.7 | 19.5 | 28 | Philadelphia |
| Washington (#20, 7-7) | 5 | 38.5 | 16.75 | 16.5 | 10 | 19 | 17 | |
| This game is to close to call, can a rookie QB go into a very tough place to play and win the game? I can't wait to watch but I don't have faith in either team right now. The Falcons seem to feast on poor running defenses and the Vikings are starting Tavaris Jackson at QB. | ||||||||
| Atlanta (#10, 9-5) | 3.5 | 43 | 19.75 | 24 | 20 | 20.1 | 21 | |
| Minnesota (#7, 9-5) | -3.5 | 43 | 23.25 | 24.4 | 29.7 | 20.7 | 23 | |
| The Giants have been averaging 15 points a game, so I see 20 points as a stretch. The injuries and suspensions have been playing a part but until the Giants have a good offensive game, I expect them to struggle. | ||||||||
| Carolina (#5, 11-3) | 3 | 37.5 | 17.25 | 25.2 | 34.3 | 18.9 | 17 | Carolina |
| NY Giants (#3, 11-3) | -3 | 37.5 | 20.25 | 26.7 | 15 | 17.6 | 14 | |
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